London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Apr 07, 2026

UK downturn deepens, raising recession risk

UK downturn deepens, raising recession risk

The downturn in British businesses steepened this month as they battled soaring costs and faltering demand, according to a survey on Friday that hammered home the rising risk of recession.

The downturn in British businesses steepened this month as they battled soaring costs and faltering demand, according to a survey on Friday that hammered home the rising risk of recession.

Released just as finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng was due to flesh out the economic agenda of new Prime Minister Liz Truss, the S&P Global/CIPS flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.4 from 49.6 in August.

It marked the lowest reading since the COVID-19 lockdown of January last year. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a reading of 49.0. Any reading below 50 marks a contraction in activity.

The PMI is likely to raise new questions about the health of Britain's economy, after consumer confidence fell this month to the lowest level since records began in 1974, according to a survey published earlier on Friday.

"UK economic woes deepened in September as falling business activity indicates that the economy is likely in recession," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global.

He said the survey's forward-looking gauges suggested worse is to come in the final months of 2022.

Kwarteng will give more detail about the government's fiscal plans, which may amount to more than 150 billion pounds ($169.02 billion) of stimulus - something that could put a floor under declining business confidence.

The PMI's gauge of future output fell to its lowest since May 2020, when Britain was in the grip of its first COVID-19 lockdown.

Activity contracted in both the manufacturing and services industries.

The PMI for the services sector fell to 49.2 in September from 50.9 in August, the weakest reading since January 2021.

While the manufacturing PMI rose to 48.5 from 47.3, much of the improvement reflected a worsening supply chain performance, which in normal times reflects shortages due to strong demand but not this time.

"Firms often mentioned reducing output volumes due to weaker intakes of new business, though there were also reports that input shortages, particularly electronics, had constrained production at some units," S&P Global said.

Despite the pound falling to 37-year lows against the dollar, export orders contracted in both the manufacturing and service sectors, S&P Global said.

($1 = 0.8875 pounds)

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Operation Europe: Trump Deploys Vance to Hungary to Save the EU
King Charles Faces Criticism From Some UK Christians Over Absence of Easter Message
Former UK Defence Secretary Raises Concerns Over Ability to Counter Iran Missile Threat
UK Signals Non-Involvement in Iran Conflict as Trump Reasserts Firm Deterrence Stance
US and UK Strengthen Medical Device Cooperation Following Tariff Removal
Trump Backs Steve Hilton for California Governor, Highlighting Reform Agenda
UK Seeks Closer Ties With Anthropic as AI Policy Divergence Emerges Across Atlantic
Experts Warn of Evolving Extremism After Teens Arrested in UK Ambulance Arson Case
UK Convenes Talks to Safeguard Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz After Conflict Escalation
Trump Highlights Strong Leadership in Critique of UK Stance on Iran
UK Authorities Review Kanye West’s Entry Status Following Festival Backlash
UK Considers Deploying Aircraft Carrier for US Independence Day Celebrations Amid Renewed Transatlantic Focus
United Kingdom Moves to Attract AI Firm Anthropic Amid Tensions with US Defense Officials
RAF Intercepts Iranian Drones in Middle East to Defend Allied Security Interests
Labour Signals Shift on Foie Gras and Fur Restrictions to Advance EU Trade Talks
Seven Arrested Near RAF Base as UK Authorities Respond to Protest Activity
Economic Pressures Mount as Analysts Warn UK Growth Is Being Constrained by Policy Burdens
UK Green Party’s Push for Church-State Separation Sparks Debate Over National Identity
Strategic Island Emerges as Growing Challenge for United States and United Kingdom Defense Planning
Pepsi Pulls Sponsorship from UK Festival Following Backlash Linked to Kanye West
Signs Emerge of Declining Enthusiasm for Social Media in the United Kingdom
Security Alert Raised Ahead of Meghan Markle’s Planned Visit to Australia
UK Food Halls Defy Hospitality Slowdown, Emerging as Bright Spot in Challenging Market
UK Sets Firm Conditions for Military Action, Insisting on Legal Mandate and Clear Strategy
UK Medicines Regulator Launches Probe into Peptide Clinics Over Health Claims
New North Sea Drilling Unlikely to Significantly Cut UK Gas Imports, Analysis Finds
Woman Linked to UK’s First All-Female Terror Plot Faces Deportation
Downed US Aircraft Over Iran Linked to Operations from UK Airfield
Two Men and Teen Detained in UK Following Attack on Jewish Charity Ambulance
UK Police Launch Inquiry After Firearms Left Unattended Outside Mayor’s Residence
Giuffre Family Calls on King Charles to Meet Epstein Survivors During US Visit
Amber Wind Warning Issued as Storm Dave Approaches Parts of the United Kingdom
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Australia Visit Set to Draw Heightened Global Attention
UK Considers Entry Fees for Overseas Visitors at Major Museums Ahead of 2026 Travel Season
UK Prime Minister and Kuwait Crown Prince Coordinate Security Response After Regional Escalation
Calls Grow to Expand Fully Paid Maternity Leave for UK Teachers Amid Workforce Pressures
UK Secures Tariff-Free Access to US Market in Landmark Pharmaceuticals Agreement
Trump Projects Strength in Critique of UK Leadership and Naval Readiness
UK FinTech Setback as VibePay and Smartlayer Cease Operations Amid Funding Pressures
UK Leads Global Coalition of Over Forty Nations to Address Strait of Hormuz Crisis
UK Firms Urged to Accelerate Preparation as New Sustainability Reporting Rules Take Shape
UK Moves Rapid Sentry Air Defence System to Kuwait After Drone Strike Escalation
Transatlantic Relations Tested as UK Seeks Balance While Trump Reshapes Strategic Approach
Trump’s Strategic Pressure on UK Seen as Push for Stronger Alignment and Fairer Terms
UK Focuses on Trade Finance to Secure Critical Materials for Defence and Energy Sectors
Majority of UK Businesses Hit by Middle East Conflict While Confidence Holds Firm
UK Royal Navy Faces Renewed Scrutiny as Debate Intensifies Over Capability and Readiness
Reform UK Faces Mounting Distractions as Policy Agenda Struggles to Gain Traction
Investigation Launched Into Northern Cyprus IVF Clinics After UK Families Receive Incorrect Sperm
International Meeting Issues Unified Call to Safeguard Navigation Through Strait of Hormuz
×