London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 11, 2025

UK debt to be worst in 50 years under no-deal Brexit

UK debt to be worst in 50 years under no-deal Brexit

Britain's leading independent economic research institute said even the most "relatively benign" no-deal Brexit would increase debt in the United Kingdom to levels not seen since the 1960s.
In its Green Budget report, published in the run-up to Chancellor Sajid Javid's first budget, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, also known as the IFS, warned that public borrowing could rise to 100 billion pounds ($122 billion) and debt would reach 90 percent of national income.

"The government is now adrift without any effective fiscal anchor," said IFS Director Paul Johnson, adding that "given the extraordinary level of uncertainty and risks facing the economy and public finances, (the government) should not be looking to offer further permanent overall tax giveaways in any forthcoming budget.

"In the case of a no-deal Brexit, though, it should be implementing carefully targeted and temporary tax cuts and spending increases where it can effectively support the economy," he added, with the IFS also warning that a no-deal Brexit could see the UK economy flatlining for two years.

A treasury spokesman defended the government's spending plans, saying: "The chancellor has already said that we will be reviewing the fiscal framework as we turn the page on austerity. In so doing, we will retain a fiscal anchor to public spending so that decisions are taken with a view to the long-term sustainability of the public finances."

Meanwhile, an assessment paper released by taxation body HM Revenues and Customs says a no-deal Brexit could leave UK businesses with an annual bill of 15 billion pounds in administration and form-filling.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists the country will leave the European Union at the end of October, "come what may, do or die", regardless of whether or not a deal has been reached, even though Parliament is doing its best to prevent no-deal.

Last week, he told the Conservative Party conference that leaving the EU would save the country 1 billion pounds per month, but the HM Customs figure, based on levels of trade from 2017, paints a very different picture.

Meanwhile, the war of words over Brexit continues, with an unnamed Downing Street source saying that any agreement is "essentially impossible not just now but ever" after a reportedly frosty phone conversation between Johnson and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Merkel's office declined to comment on confidential discussions, but European Council President Donald Tusk subsequently tweeted to Johnson "what's at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people."

Members of the opposition Labour Party called the latest move a "cynical attempt to sabotage the negotiations".

Johnson "will never take responsibility for his own failure to put forward a credible deal", said Labour's shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer, calling upon politicians across the party divide in Parliament to "unite to prevent this reckless government crashing us out of the EU".
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
ChatGPT CEO signals policy to alert authorities over suicidal youth after teen’s death
The British legal mafia hit back: Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
Surpassing Musk: Larry Ellison becomes the richest man in the world
Embarrassment for Starmer: He fired the ambassador photographed on Epstein’s 'pedophile island'
Manhunt after 'skilled sniper' shot Charlie Kirk. Footage: Suspect running on rooftop during panic
Effective Protest Results: Nepal’s Prime Minister Resigns as Youth-Led Unrest Shakes the Nation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
King Charles and Prince Harry Share First In-Person Moment in 19 Months
Starmer Establishes Economic ‘Budget Board’ to Centralise Policy and Rebuild Business Trust
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Brazilian police say ex-President Bolsonaro had planned to flee to Argentina seeking asylum
Trinidad Leader Applauds U.S. Naval Strike and Advocates Forceful Action Against Traffickers
Kim Jong Un Oversees Final Test of New High-Thrust Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to pause billions in foreign aid
Charlie Sheen says his father, Martin Sheen, turned him in to the police: 'The greatest betrayal possible'
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
Pig Heads Left Outside Multiple Paris Mosques in Outrage-Inducing Acts
Nvidia’s ‘Wow’ Factor Is Fading. The AI chip giant used to beat Wall Street expectations for earnings by a substantial margin. That trajectory is coming down to earth.
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
On the Anniversary of Queen Elizabeth’s Death: Prince Harry Returns to Britain
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Murdoch Family Finalises $3.3 Billion Succession Pact, Ensuring Eldest Son’s Leadership
Big Oil Slashes Jobs and Investments Amid Prolonged Low Crude Prices
Court Staff Cover Up Banksy Image of Judge Beating a Protester
Social Media Access Curtailed in Turkey After CHP Calls for Rallies Following Police Blockade of Istanbul Headquarters
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
Elon Musk Poised to Become First Trillionaire Under Ambitious Tesla Pay Plan
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
Burning the Minister’s House Helped Protesters to Win Justice: Prabowo Fires Finance Minister in Wake of Indonesia Protests
Brazil Braces for Fallout from Bolsonaro Trial by corrupted judge
The Country That Got Too Rich? Public Spending Dominates Norway Election
Nearly 40 Years Later: Nike Changes the Legendary Slogan Just Do It
Generations Born After 1939 Unlikely to Reach Age One Hundred, New Study Finds
End to a four-year manhunt in New Zealand: the father who abducted his children to the forests was killed, the three siblings were found
Germany Suspends Debt Rules, Funnels €500 Billion Toward Military and Proxy War Strategy
EU Prepares for War
BMW Eyes Growth in China with New All‑Electric Neue Klasse Lineup
Trump Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs After EU Imposes €2.95 Billion Fine on Google
Tesla Board Proposes Unprecedented One-Trillion-Dollar Performance Package for Elon Musk
US Justice Department Launches Criminal Mortgage-Fraud Probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
Escalating Drug Trafficking and Violence in Latin America: A Growing Crisis
US and Taiwanese Defence Officials Held Secret Talks in Alaska
Report: Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission in North Korea Ordered by Trump in 2019 Ended in Failure
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Florida Murder Case: The Adelson Family, the Killing of Dan Markel, and the Trial of Donna Adelson
×