London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Oct 23, 2026

UK debt to be worst in 50 years under no-deal Brexit

UK debt to be worst in 50 years under no-deal Brexit

Britain's leading independent economic research institute said even the most "relatively benign" no-deal Brexit would increase debt in the United Kingdom to levels not seen since the 1960s.
In its Green Budget report, published in the run-up to Chancellor Sajid Javid's first budget, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, also known as the IFS, warned that public borrowing could rise to 100 billion pounds ($122 billion) and debt would reach 90 percent of national income.

"The government is now adrift without any effective fiscal anchor," said IFS Director Paul Johnson, adding that "given the extraordinary level of uncertainty and risks facing the economy and public finances, (the government) should not be looking to offer further permanent overall tax giveaways in any forthcoming budget.

"In the case of a no-deal Brexit, though, it should be implementing carefully targeted and temporary tax cuts and spending increases where it can effectively support the economy," he added, with the IFS also warning that a no-deal Brexit could see the UK economy flatlining for two years.

A treasury spokesman defended the government's spending plans, saying: "The chancellor has already said that we will be reviewing the fiscal framework as we turn the page on austerity. In so doing, we will retain a fiscal anchor to public spending so that decisions are taken with a view to the long-term sustainability of the public finances."

Meanwhile, an assessment paper released by taxation body HM Revenues and Customs says a no-deal Brexit could leave UK businesses with an annual bill of 15 billion pounds in administration and form-filling.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists the country will leave the European Union at the end of October, "come what may, do or die", regardless of whether or not a deal has been reached, even though Parliament is doing its best to prevent no-deal.

Last week, he told the Conservative Party conference that leaving the EU would save the country 1 billion pounds per month, but the HM Customs figure, based on levels of trade from 2017, paints a very different picture.

Meanwhile, the war of words over Brexit continues, with an unnamed Downing Street source saying that any agreement is "essentially impossible not just now but ever" after a reportedly frosty phone conversation between Johnson and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Merkel's office declined to comment on confidential discussions, but European Council President Donald Tusk subsequently tweeted to Johnson "what's at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people."

Members of the opposition Labour Party called the latest move a "cynical attempt to sabotage the negotiations".

Johnson "will never take responsibility for his own failure to put forward a credible deal", said Labour's shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer, calling upon politicians across the party divide in Parliament to "unite to prevent this reckless government crashing us out of the EU".
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Government Injects One Hundred and Forty Million Pounds to Expand Urgent Care Ahead of Winter Crisis
Department of Health Warns Further Pay Rises Will Derail National Health Service Waiting List Targets
Major Environmental Emergency Declared in South Wales Following Aerospace Kerosene Spill
Tank Barrel Production Returns to Britain as Defence Contractors Accelerate Domestic Rearmament
Government Approves Controversial Jackdaw Gasfield Development in the North Sea
National Health Service Maternity Safety Review Condemned Over Flawed Artificial Intelligence Integration
Dozens of United Kingdom Government Services Taken Offline Amid Critical Software Vulnerability
Barclays Announces Five Thousand Job Cuts Citing Artificial Intelligence Productivity Gains
Treasury Relaxes Post-Financial Crisis Accountability Rules for City of London Executives
United Kingdom Government Issues Unprecedented Guidance Urging Citizens to Stockpile Essential Supplies
United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Accelerates to Eleven-Month High Driven by Transport Costs
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Debt Breaches Three Trillion Pounds Ahead of Autumn Budget
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Commits Fifty Million Pounds to Establish Regional Artificial Intelligence Innovation Clusters
Ofgem Directs Major Energy Suppliers to Expand Vulnerable Household Support Funds Ahead of Winter Heating Season
Home Office and National Police Chiefs Council Unveil New Intelligence-Led Strategy to Tackle Organised Immigration Crime Networks
First Minister John Swinney Secures Scottish Parliament Approval for Comprehensive Climate and Green Energy Infrastructure Strategy
National Health Service England and Trades Union Congress Finalize Agreement on Emergency Winter Staffing and Pay Frameworks
HM Treasury and Department for Business and Trade Announce Multi-Billion-Pound Sovereign Investment Pact to Spur Regional Advanced Manufacturing
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Signals Potential for Faster Interest Rate Cuts as Domestic Inflation Pressures Ease Below Forecasts
Parliamentary Inquiry Highlights Urgent Need to Address Housing Shortage as Scottish Completions Hit Eleven-Year Low
United Kingdom and Singapore Sign Comprehensive Financial Agreement to Deepen Digital and Sustainable Market Ties
Greggs Announces Plan to Close Four Manufacturing Facilities and Cut Seven Hundred and Forty Jobs
International Monetary Fund Raises United Kingdom Economic Growth Forecast While Warning of Inflationary Pressures
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs Onto Gas to Lower Household Bills
Housebuilding Across Scotland Plummets to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Pledges to Tackle National Housing Emergency
Greggs Announces Factory Closures Across Northern England and Scotland Affecting Seven Hundred Forty Jobs
United Kingdom and Singapore Conclude Eleventh Financial Dialogue in Singapore to Deepen Cooperation on Digital Finance and Capital Markets
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs to Gas Bills and Tap Windfall Profits to Lower Consumer Prices
British Broadcasting Corporation Announces Major Cost-Cutting Overhaul to Close Linear Broadcast Services for Television Channels BBC Three and BBC Scotland Alongside Digital Radio Station BBC Radio Four Extra
London Capital Markets Face Renewed Scrutiny After High-Profile Offerings Underperform Post-Listing
Green Party Wins Historic First Westminster Parliamentary By-Election in Gorton and Denton
Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds Unveils Sweeping Regulatory Overhaul for English Water Industry
United Kingdom Health Security Agency Confirms Thirty-Four Cases in Kent Meningitis Outbreak
Ministry of Defence Prepares Heat Pump Subsidy Cuts to Fund Urgent Military Modernization
British and European Union Officials Schedule Long-Awaited Bilateral Leaders Summit for November Twentieth
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Urges Strict Fiscal Credibility to Protect British Bond Markets
United Kingdom Inflation Rises to Three Point One Percent Driven by Escalating Fuel Costs
Profit Warnings Among London-Listed Companies Reach Two-Year High Amid Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Signals Targeted Tax Changes on Banks and London Corporate Offices Ahead of Budget
British Government Reallocates Twenty-Five Per Cent of International Climate Finance to Global Biodiversity Projects
Initial British Carbon Border Taxes Set to Undercut Parallel European Union Tariffs on Industrial Imports
Whitehall Prepares National Zero-Interest Loan Initiative to Accelerate Domestic Heat Pump and Solar Adoption
European Union Offers British Automakers Access to Hybrid Vehicle Trade Protections Subject to Strict Regulatory Alignment
British Probation Officers Threaten Widespread Industrial Action After Rejecting Five Per Cent Government Pay Offer
Microsoft Abandons Major British Artificial Intelligence Data Centre Citing Severe National Grid Power Constraints
United Kingdom Inflation Accelerates to Three Point Four Per Cent Ahead of Chancellor John Healey's Inaugural Autumn Budget
Surging Cloned Number Plates Severely Complicate Traffic Enforcement and Police Investigations
Mounting Opposition Challenges Planned Rollout of Autonomous Taxis Across London
Influential Think Tank Urges Rejoining European Union to Navigate Geopolitical Crises
Government Review Recommends Slashing Benefits to Fund Youth Employment Initiatives
×