London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Aug 02, 2026

UK debt to be worst in 50 years under no-deal Brexit

UK debt to be worst in 50 years under no-deal Brexit

Britain's leading independent economic research institute said even the most "relatively benign" no-deal Brexit would increase debt in the United Kingdom to levels not seen since the 1960s.
In its Green Budget report, published in the run-up to Chancellor Sajid Javid's first budget, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, also known as the IFS, warned that public borrowing could rise to 100 billion pounds ($122 billion) and debt would reach 90 percent of national income.

"The government is now adrift without any effective fiscal anchor," said IFS Director Paul Johnson, adding that "given the extraordinary level of uncertainty and risks facing the economy and public finances, (the government) should not be looking to offer further permanent overall tax giveaways in any forthcoming budget.

"In the case of a no-deal Brexit, though, it should be implementing carefully targeted and temporary tax cuts and spending increases where it can effectively support the economy," he added, with the IFS also warning that a no-deal Brexit could see the UK economy flatlining for two years.

A treasury spokesman defended the government's spending plans, saying: "The chancellor has already said that we will be reviewing the fiscal framework as we turn the page on austerity. In so doing, we will retain a fiscal anchor to public spending so that decisions are taken with a view to the long-term sustainability of the public finances."

Meanwhile, an assessment paper released by taxation body HM Revenues and Customs says a no-deal Brexit could leave UK businesses with an annual bill of 15 billion pounds in administration and form-filling.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists the country will leave the European Union at the end of October, "come what may, do or die", regardless of whether or not a deal has been reached, even though Parliament is doing its best to prevent no-deal.

Last week, he told the Conservative Party conference that leaving the EU would save the country 1 billion pounds per month, but the HM Customs figure, based on levels of trade from 2017, paints a very different picture.

Meanwhile, the war of words over Brexit continues, with an unnamed Downing Street source saying that any agreement is "essentially impossible not just now but ever" after a reportedly frosty phone conversation between Johnson and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Merkel's office declined to comment on confidential discussions, but European Council President Donald Tusk subsequently tweeted to Johnson "what's at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people."

Members of the opposition Labour Party called the latest move a "cynical attempt to sabotage the negotiations".

Johnson "will never take responsibility for his own failure to put forward a credible deal", said Labour's shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer, calling upon politicians across the party divide in Parliament to "unite to prevent this reckless government crashing us out of the EU".
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Finland Deploys Commercial-Scale Thermal Batteries Using Crushed Rock to Store Renewable Grid Energy
Valued at $109 Million: F-35B Fighter Jet Crashes in Southern California
Sainsbury Agrees to Sell Argos in £120 Million Deal to Private Consortium
High Court Clears Way for Construction of Chinese Embassy at Royal Mint Court
UK Fuel Prices Climb to Multi-Month Highs as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Disrupt Oil Supplies
Severe Summer Drought and Record Heat Put UK Harvests at Risk
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Faces Labour Backbench Opposition Over Potential Support for New North Sea Oil and Gas Drilling
Bank of England Warns Inflation Will Stay Above 3% as Middle East Energy Shock Prolongs Cost-of-Living Pressures
Andy Burnham has Announces Plans to Redistribute Income Tax Revenue to English Mayors
Early-Release Scheme Faces Fresh Scrutiny as Reoffending and Prison Recalls Rise
Police Phone Checks Followed Report on Murder of MI5 Agent Inside Sinn Féin
Archbishop of Canterbury Reaffirms £100 Million Reparative Justice Fund During Ghana Visit
Charities Allege French Police Used Tear Gas Against Channel Migrants
Norwegian Teenager Convicted Over Iran-Linked Murder Plot in Britain
Christian Organisations File Charity Complaints Against Amnesty International UK
Ofgem Tightens Grid Connection Rules for New Data Centres
FTSE 100 Reaches Record High Despite Global Technology Sell-Off
Millions of UK Households Urged to Check Eligibility for Winter Energy Discount
Labour Restores Parliamentary Whips to Diane Abbott and Joani Reid
UK Supreme Court to Hear Challenge Over Palestine Action Ban
UK Commits More Than £8.4 Billion to Dreadnought Nuclear Submarine Programme
England Declares Severe Drought as Wildfire Burns Near Sizewell Nuclear Site
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75% as Middle East Tensions Fuel Inflation Risks
Drought Status Extended Across All of Wales as Heat and Dry Weather Deepen Environmental Strain
Record-Low Danube Exposes Probable Mammoth Remains in Bulgaria
UK Business Confidence Climbs to Four-Month High
Greater Manchester Gains Expanded Powers Under Regional Funding Reforms
UK Supreme Court to Hear Appeal Over Palestine Action Terror Ban
Shell's Quarterly Profit Doubles to Nearly $10 Billion on Higher Energy Prices
UK Government Removes VAT From Household Electricity Bills
Exceptional Drought Grips Half of England as Wildfire Threatens Sizewell
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Risks Persist
US Says It Has Carried Out Heavy Strikes on Iran After Attempted Attacks on Its Forces
The chief executive of the popular gaming company laid off many employees and his pay rose to 38 million dollars
UK Employment Holds Steady as Wage Growth Remains Moderate
England to Introduce Artificial Intelligence into Secondary School Curriculum
Wales Launches £1.2 Billion Industrial Regeneration Programme
High Court Upholds UK Digital Surveillance Framework
Northern Ireland Reaches Budget Agreement on Infrastructure and Public Sector Pay
Home Office Expands Digital Border Checks Nationwide
UK Approves Major North Sea Wind and Carbon Capture Project
The World's Most Terrifying Smartphone: Recording, Documenting, and Reporting to the Regime
Scotland Approves Major Renewable Energy Expansion
UK and United States Sign AI and Semiconductor Cooperation Pact
UK Treasury Tightens Fiscal Controls After Gilt Market Volatility
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 4.5%
UK Unveils £10 Billion NHS Funding Overhaul and Workforce Reform
The AI User Nightmare: Private Claude Conversations Leaked to the Internet
UK: Former Football Association Leaders Call for World Cup Boycott Over FIFA Privatization Plan
Forbidden Love: China severs millions from their virtual partners
×