London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Oct 23, 2026

Tesco, M&S seen as Christmas winners before UK spending squeeze hits

Tesco, M&S seen as Christmas winners before UK spending squeeze hits

Britain's biggest retailer Tesco (TSCO.L) and food and clothing group Marks & Spencer (MKS.L) are expected to emerge as Christmas winners from a raft of market updates next week as investors fret over a looming squeeze on consumer spending.

The global industry will be watching as British retailers update the market on festive demand, before their U.S. peers report in the coming weeks on a Christmas period hit by the rapid spread of Omicron and chronic supply chain disruption.

In the United States brokerages have forecast muted holiday sales after early signs of weak demand.

In Britain, where Omicron kept shoppers at home, retailers in clothing and general goods were largely reliant on their online channels, while demand for food and drink from supermarkets held up as restaurants and bars lay deserted.

Three major UK listed retailers have reported so far - clothing chain Next (NXT.L), discount retailer B&M (BMEB.L) and baker and fast food chain Greggs (GRG.L). All upgraded their full-year profit outlooks but also cautioned on ongoing global supply chain disruption and inflationary pressures.

British consumers are about to be hit by one of the tightest squeezes on spending in decades, with energy prices, food inflation, mortgage costs and taxes all due to jump in 2022, leaving retailers looking at a much tougher environment.

As the pandemic eases, they also risk losing out if consumers start to spend on holidays and other leisure pursuits.

Early indications of weakness hit fast fashion groups like ASOS and Boohoo (BOOH.L) badly last year.

For now, Next, a supplier of mid-priced clothes to families across Britain, said it had been surprised by the strength of demand in the final three months of the year.

WINNERS


For Christmas, expectations are high for Tesco after industry data published on Wednesday showed it outperformed its major rivals - Sainsbury's (SBRY.L), Asda and Morrisons - achieving its highest grocery market share since January 2018. M&S, Britain's most famous stores group which is recovering from a decade of decline, is also anticipated to have performed well after data from market researcher Nielsen last month showed it was the country's fastest growing food retailer heading into the festive season.

"M&S had remarkable momentum in-store during Q3 and we see little to believe that this did not continue at Christmas time," said Shore Capital analyst Clive Black.

"Of the 'Big Four' (grocers) we believe that Tesco UK, with strong availability, standards and growing (loyalty) Clubcard penetration, will win - both M&S and Tesco could guide (profits) higher."

The 138-year-old M&S, which has already upgraded its profit outlook twice this year, will update on third quarter to Jan. 1 trading on Thursday.

On average, analysts forecast total food sales rising 7.7% versus the same period in the 2020-21 year and up 10% versus the same period in the 2019-20 year before the pandemic began.

M&S's clothing and homeware sales are forecast to jump 32.3% on last year, bringing them to within touching distance of levels produced in 2019.

Also on Thursday, Tesco will provide a market update that includes trading for the six weeks to Jan. 8. Analysts at Citi forecast organic sales compared with last year, when Britain was in lockdown, to be either flat or incrementally higher.

Sainsbury's (SBRY.L), Britain's second largest supermarket group, will update on its trading on Wednesday.

ASOS will also update the market on Thursday, showing whether any of the supply chain problems that have hit its shares have eased.

Electricals retailer Currys (CURY.L) will indicate demand for its goods on Friday, having warned in December of a softer market.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Government Injects One Hundred and Forty Million Pounds to Expand Urgent Care Ahead of Winter Crisis
Department of Health Warns Further Pay Rises Will Derail National Health Service Waiting List Targets
Major Environmental Emergency Declared in South Wales Following Aerospace Kerosene Spill
Tank Barrel Production Returns to Britain as Defence Contractors Accelerate Domestic Rearmament
Government Approves Controversial Jackdaw Gasfield Development in the North Sea
National Health Service Maternity Safety Review Condemned Over Flawed Artificial Intelligence Integration
Dozens of United Kingdom Government Services Taken Offline Amid Critical Software Vulnerability
Barclays Announces Five Thousand Job Cuts Citing Artificial Intelligence Productivity Gains
Treasury Relaxes Post-Financial Crisis Accountability Rules for City of London Executives
United Kingdom Government Issues Unprecedented Guidance Urging Citizens to Stockpile Essential Supplies
United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Accelerates to Eleven-Month High Driven by Transport Costs
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Debt Breaches Three Trillion Pounds Ahead of Autumn Budget
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Commits Fifty Million Pounds to Establish Regional Artificial Intelligence Innovation Clusters
Ofgem Directs Major Energy Suppliers to Expand Vulnerable Household Support Funds Ahead of Winter Heating Season
Home Office and National Police Chiefs Council Unveil New Intelligence-Led Strategy to Tackle Organised Immigration Crime Networks
First Minister John Swinney Secures Scottish Parliament Approval for Comprehensive Climate and Green Energy Infrastructure Strategy
National Health Service England and Trades Union Congress Finalize Agreement on Emergency Winter Staffing and Pay Frameworks
HM Treasury and Department for Business and Trade Announce Multi-Billion-Pound Sovereign Investment Pact to Spur Regional Advanced Manufacturing
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Signals Potential for Faster Interest Rate Cuts as Domestic Inflation Pressures Ease Below Forecasts
Parliamentary Inquiry Highlights Urgent Need to Address Housing Shortage as Scottish Completions Hit Eleven-Year Low
United Kingdom and Singapore Sign Comprehensive Financial Agreement to Deepen Digital and Sustainable Market Ties
Greggs Announces Plan to Close Four Manufacturing Facilities and Cut Seven Hundred and Forty Jobs
International Monetary Fund Raises United Kingdom Economic Growth Forecast While Warning of Inflationary Pressures
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs Onto Gas to Lower Household Bills
Housebuilding Across Scotland Plummets to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Pledges to Tackle National Housing Emergency
Greggs Announces Factory Closures Across Northern England and Scotland Affecting Seven Hundred Forty Jobs
United Kingdom and Singapore Conclude Eleventh Financial Dialogue in Singapore to Deepen Cooperation on Digital Finance and Capital Markets
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs to Gas Bills and Tap Windfall Profits to Lower Consumer Prices
British Broadcasting Corporation Announces Major Cost-Cutting Overhaul to Close Linear Broadcast Services for Television Channels BBC Three and BBC Scotland Alongside Digital Radio Station BBC Radio Four Extra
London Capital Markets Face Renewed Scrutiny After High-Profile Offerings Underperform Post-Listing
Green Party Wins Historic First Westminster Parliamentary By-Election in Gorton and Denton
Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds Unveils Sweeping Regulatory Overhaul for English Water Industry
United Kingdom Health Security Agency Confirms Thirty-Four Cases in Kent Meningitis Outbreak
Ministry of Defence Prepares Heat Pump Subsidy Cuts to Fund Urgent Military Modernization
British and European Union Officials Schedule Long-Awaited Bilateral Leaders Summit for November Twentieth
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Urges Strict Fiscal Credibility to Protect British Bond Markets
United Kingdom Inflation Rises to Three Point One Percent Driven by Escalating Fuel Costs
Profit Warnings Among London-Listed Companies Reach Two-Year High Amid Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Signals Targeted Tax Changes on Banks and London Corporate Offices Ahead of Budget
British Government Reallocates Twenty-Five Per Cent of International Climate Finance to Global Biodiversity Projects
Initial British Carbon Border Taxes Set to Undercut Parallel European Union Tariffs on Industrial Imports
Whitehall Prepares National Zero-Interest Loan Initiative to Accelerate Domestic Heat Pump and Solar Adoption
European Union Offers British Automakers Access to Hybrid Vehicle Trade Protections Subject to Strict Regulatory Alignment
British Probation Officers Threaten Widespread Industrial Action After Rejecting Five Per Cent Government Pay Offer
Microsoft Abandons Major British Artificial Intelligence Data Centre Citing Severe National Grid Power Constraints
United Kingdom Inflation Accelerates to Three Point Four Per Cent Ahead of Chancellor John Healey's Inaugural Autumn Budget
Surging Cloned Number Plates Severely Complicate Traffic Enforcement and Police Investigations
Mounting Opposition Challenges Planned Rollout of Autonomous Taxis Across London
Influential Think Tank Urges Rejoining European Union to Navigate Geopolitical Crises
Government Review Recommends Slashing Benefits to Fund Youth Employment Initiatives
×