London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Feb 21, 2026

No guarantee of quick economic bounceback, warns Sunak

It is "not obvious there will be an immediate bounceback" for the UK economy, once lockdown restrictions are eased, the chancellor has warned.

Rishi Sunak said he hoped for a swift recovery, but it could take time for the UK economy to get back to normal.

"It takes time for people to get back to the habits that they had, there are still restrictions in place," he said.

His warning came as figures showed the number of people claiming unemployment benefit soared to 2.1 million in April.

The jump of 856,500 claims in April reflected the impact of the first full month of lockdown, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The government has made some changes to who can claim work-related benefits during the pandemic, but this figure is one of a series that show the stress Covid-19 is putting on the jobs market.


'Jury's out'

Speaking to the Lords Economic Affairs Committee, Mr Sunak said figures from around the world where countries were progressively easing and lifting restrictions, suggested a full recovery could take time.

He said the "question that occupies" his mind was "what degree of long-term scarring is there on the economy" and that once restrictions begin to be lifted there will be the case of "what do we return to" and on that the "jury's out".

But he admitted he felt "all economic forecasters and economists would agree the longer the recession is, it is likely the degree of that scarring will be greater".

He said that even if the government can reopen retail in England as planned on the 1 June, there will still be restrictions on how people can shop.

This will have an impact on how much they spend, and on how many people go out, Mr Sunak said.

"I think in all cases it will take a little bit of time for things to get back to normal, even once we've reopened currently closed sectors," Mr Sunak added.

When quizzed on unemployment by the committee, Mr Sunak said he did not have a precise estimate for what the numbers would be at the end of the year.

However, he said: "Obviously, the impact [of the coronavirus pandemic] will be severe."

Before the lockdown began, employment had hit a record high.

In another indication of the bleak employment landscape, the number of job vacancies fell by nearly a quarter to 637,000 in the three months to April.


'The week after I left the company, Covid hit'

Meanwhile, claims for universal credit - the benefit for working-age people in the UK - hit a record monthly level in the early weeks of lockdown.

Unemployed HR worker Jon Ellis-Fleming, of Keighley in West Yorkshire, had been with an outsourcing company for more than four years when he was made redundant.

He left the firm on 8 March, hoping to spend some time at home with his partner Julia Paterson and their eight-month-old daughter Daisy while looking for a new job.

"The week after I officially left the company, Covid hit," he told the BBC. That meant that several promising job offers just evaporated as firms put their recruitment plans on hold.

Jon applied for universal credit and jobseeker's allowance. He is due to receive his first payment of £600 later this month, while his partner receives £650 a month on maternity leave.

That leaves them with less than half of their former income - and with another mouth to feed as well.

"I've not been out of work in 10 years," he said. "I've never had any intention of being out of work that long.

"I can't help but wonder, if I'd been with the company two weeks longer, would furloughing have been an option?"

The unemployment rate was estimated at 3.9%, slightly down on the previous quarter, the ONS said.

The jobless figures only cover the first week of the lockdown and they are expected to worsen sharply in the coming months.

Jagjit Chadha, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, told the BBC: "We can reasonably expect unemployment to rise very quickly to something over 10% - something we haven't seen since the early 1990s."

Estimates based on returns for individual weeks suggest that the fall in the unemployment rate was mostly caused by the decrease in hours in the last week of March, with a much smaller decrease in the previous week, the ONS said.

In the final week of March, the total number of hours worked was about 25% fewer than in other weeks within the quarter.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Confirms Preferential U.S. Trading Terms Will Continue After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
U.S. and U.K. to Hold Talks on Diego Garcia as Iran Objects to Potential Military Use
UK Officials Weigh Possible Changes to Prince Andrew’s Position in Line of Succession Amid Ongoing Scrutiny
British Police Probe Epstein’s UK Airport Links and Expand High-Profile Inquiries
United Kingdom Denies U.S. Access to Military Base for Potential Iran Strike
British Co-founder of ASOS falls to his death from Pattaya apartment
Early 2026 Data Suggests Tentative Recovery for UK Businesses and Households
UK Introduces Digital-First Passport Rules for Dual Citizens in Border Control Overhaul
Unable to Access Live Financial Data for January UK Surplus Report
UK Government Considers Law to Remove Prince Andrew from Royal Line of Succession
UK ‘Working Closely with US’ to Assess Impact of Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Trump Criticises UK Decision to Restrict Use of Bases in Potential Iran Strike Scenario
UK Foreign Secretary and U.S. State Chief Hold Strategic Talks as Tensions Rise Over Joint Air Base
Two teens arrested in France for alleged terror plot.
Nordic Fracture: How Criminal Scandals and Toxic Ties are Dismantling the Norwegian Crown
US Supreme Court Voids Trump’s Emergency Tariff Plan, Reshaping Trade Power and Fiscal Risk
King Charles III Opens London Fashion Week as Royal Family Faces Fresh Scrutiny
Trump’s Evolving Stance on UK Chagos Islands Deal Draws Renewed Scrutiny
House Democrat Says Former UK Ambassador Unable to Testify in Congressional Epstein Inquiry
No Record of Prince Andrew Arrest in UK as Claims Circulate Online
UK Has Not Granted US Approval to Launch Iran Strikes from RAF Bases, Government Confirms
AI Pricing Pressure Mounts as Chinese Models Undercut US Rivals and Margin Risks Grow
Global Counsel, Advisory Firm Co-Founded by Lord Mandelson, Enters Administration After Client Exodus
London High Court dispute over Ricardo Salinas’s $400mn Elektra share-backed bitcoin loan
UK Intensifies Efforts to Secure Saudi Investment in Next-Generation Fighter Jet Programme
Former Student Files Civil Claim Against UK Authorities After Rape Charges Against Peers Are Dropped
Archer Aviation Chooses Bristol for New UK Engineering Hub to Drive Electric Air Taxi Expansion
UK Sees Surge in Medical Device Testing as Government Pushes Global Competitiveness
UK Competition Watchdog Flags Concerns Over Proposed Getty Images–Shutterstock Merger
Trump Reasserts Opposition to UK Chagos Islands Proposal, Urges Stronger Strategic Alignment
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis advocates for a ban on minors using social media.
Liberal Senator Michaelia Cash Accuses Prime Minister of Lying to Australians
Meanwhile in Time Square, NYC One of the most famous landmarks
Jensen Huang just told the story of how Elon Musk became NVIDIA’s very first customer for their powerful AI supercomputer
A Lunar New Year event in Taiwan briefly came to a halt after a temple official standing beside President Lai Ching‑te suddenly vomited, splashing Lai’s clothing
Jillian Michaels reveals Bill Gates’ $55 million investment in mRNA vaccines turned into over $1 billion.
Ex-Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor's arrested
Former British Prince Andrew Arrested on Suspicion of Misconduct in Public Office
Four Chagos Islanders Establish Permanent Settlement on Atoll
Unitree Robotics founder Wang Xingxing showcases future robot deployment during Spring Festival Gala.
UK Inflation Slows Sharply in January, Strengthening Case for Bank of England Rate Cut
Hide the truth, fake the facts, pretend the opposite, Britain is as usual
France President Macron says Free Speech is Bull Sh!t
Viktor Orbán getting massive praise for keeping Hungary safe, rich and migrant-free!
UK Inflation Falls to Ten-Month Low, Markets Anticipate Interest Rate Cut
UK House Prices Climb 2.4% in December as Market Shows Signs of Stabilisation
BAE Systems Predicts Sustained Expansion as Defence Orders Reach Record High
Pro-Palestine Activists Cleared of Burglary Charges Over Break-In at UK Israeli Arms Facility
Former Reform UK Councillors Form New Local Group Amid Party Fragmentation
Reform UK Pledges to Retain Britain’s Budget Watchdog as It Seeks Broader Economic Credibility
×