London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Aug 02, 2026

Someone in the UK just put down a million-pound bet on Joe Biden

Someone in the UK just put down a million-pound bet on Joe Biden

Joe Biden's biggest fan could be a bettor in the United Kingdom.
Someone has placed a £1 million, or $1.29 million, bet on Biden to be the next president on the Betfair Exchange, the world's largest online betting exchange, where gamblers find other gamblers who match their wagers.

US gamblers are not allowed to place legal wagers on the election, even as legal sports wagering spreads across much of the country thanks to a 2018 Supreme Court ruling. But wagering on the election in the UK's legal betting market is soaring, setting up the US vote to be the most-bet-upon event in history.

The identity of the bettor, who placed the wager on October 29, is not known. They would win a £540,000 ($696,170) profit on top of getting the original £1 million wager returned.

Oddsmakers put Biden's chance of winning at 65%, and Trump's chances at 35%. That's slightly better odds for Trump than the 2-to-1 odds last week. And it's much better than the 10% chance of Trump winning according to FiveThirtyEight.

The £1 million wager is tied for the third-largest bet in Betfair's history, behind £1.1 million bet on tennis player Rafael Nadal in the 2010 French Open, and slightly more than £1 million bet on Floyd Mayweather Jr. in his 2017 match against Conor McGregor.

The bet could be a good omen for Biden: The 10 largest bets in Betfair's history before now, all on sporting events, have been winners.

Big-money bettors typically bet on the favorite, said Pete Watt, public relations manager for OddsChecker US, which provides advice and information to gamblers. And they typically come very close to the event taking place, he said.

"A tiny difference in the odds will make a big difference in the returns of the big-money bettors," he said. Because of that, those bettors might wait until they're convinced they can get the best possible odds on their bets.

The bets are flowing into Betfair at a record pace, with £274 million, or $353 million, having been recorded by Monday morning. And it takes several days for a bet that has been made to show up in the data, which is why the October 29 bet has only now become known. So the total wagering on the vote is likely well above that level.

Since Betfair will allow bettors to keep wagering until a winner is declared, there could be days more betting, if not more, as vote counting goes on. Betfair is estimating total US presidential election wagers on its exchange will top £400 million, or twice what was wagered in 2016.

The winning bet will be who becomes the next president, not who wins the popular vote.

The largest political bet ever made on Betfair Exchange was a £555,000 bet made on Trump in 2016 that came in at about 12:30 am ET, the day after the election, after most of the US polls had closed, but before he was declared a winner.

But the big money is not always right. Watt said one better wagered £550,000 on Hillary Clinton a month before that election. And there was a £100,000 bet made that UK would vote to remain in the UK during the 2016 Brexit vote.
Comments

LUKEd 6 year ago
Yea but where is the story about somebody betting £5 million on Trump

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Finland Deploys Commercial-Scale Thermal Batteries Using Crushed Rock to Store Renewable Grid Energy
Valued at $109 Million: F-35B Fighter Jet Crashes in Southern California
Sainsbury Agrees to Sell Argos in £120 Million Deal to Private Consortium
High Court Clears Way for Construction of Chinese Embassy at Royal Mint Court
UK Fuel Prices Climb to Multi-Month Highs as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Disrupt Oil Supplies
Severe Summer Drought and Record Heat Put UK Harvests at Risk
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Faces Labour Backbench Opposition Over Potential Support for New North Sea Oil and Gas Drilling
Bank of England Warns Inflation Will Stay Above 3% as Middle East Energy Shock Prolongs Cost-of-Living Pressures
Andy Burnham has Announces Plans to Redistribute Income Tax Revenue to English Mayors
Early-Release Scheme Faces Fresh Scrutiny as Reoffending and Prison Recalls Rise
Police Phone Checks Followed Report on Murder of MI5 Agent Inside Sinn Féin
Archbishop of Canterbury Reaffirms £100 Million Reparative Justice Fund During Ghana Visit
Charities Allege French Police Used Tear Gas Against Channel Migrants
Norwegian Teenager Convicted Over Iran-Linked Murder Plot in Britain
Christian Organisations File Charity Complaints Against Amnesty International UK
Ofgem Tightens Grid Connection Rules for New Data Centres
FTSE 100 Reaches Record High Despite Global Technology Sell-Off
Millions of UK Households Urged to Check Eligibility for Winter Energy Discount
Labour Restores Parliamentary Whips to Diane Abbott and Joani Reid
UK Supreme Court to Hear Challenge Over Palestine Action Ban
UK Commits More Than £8.4 Billion to Dreadnought Nuclear Submarine Programme
England Declares Severe Drought as Wildfire Burns Near Sizewell Nuclear Site
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75% as Middle East Tensions Fuel Inflation Risks
Drought Status Extended Across All of Wales as Heat and Dry Weather Deepen Environmental Strain
Record-Low Danube Exposes Probable Mammoth Remains in Bulgaria
UK Business Confidence Climbs to Four-Month High
Greater Manchester Gains Expanded Powers Under Regional Funding Reforms
UK Supreme Court to Hear Appeal Over Palestine Action Terror Ban
Shell's Quarterly Profit Doubles to Nearly $10 Billion on Higher Energy Prices
UK Government Removes VAT From Household Electricity Bills
Exceptional Drought Grips Half of England as Wildfire Threatens Sizewell
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Risks Persist
US Says It Has Carried Out Heavy Strikes on Iran After Attempted Attacks on Its Forces
The chief executive of the popular gaming company laid off many employees and his pay rose to 38 million dollars
UK Employment Holds Steady as Wage Growth Remains Moderate
England to Introduce Artificial Intelligence into Secondary School Curriculum
Wales Launches £1.2 Billion Industrial Regeneration Programme
High Court Upholds UK Digital Surveillance Framework
Northern Ireland Reaches Budget Agreement on Infrastructure and Public Sector Pay
Home Office Expands Digital Border Checks Nationwide
UK Approves Major North Sea Wind and Carbon Capture Project
The World's Most Terrifying Smartphone: Recording, Documenting, and Reporting to the Regime
Scotland Approves Major Renewable Energy Expansion
UK and United States Sign AI and Semiconductor Cooperation Pact
UK Treasury Tightens Fiscal Controls After Gilt Market Volatility
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 4.5%
UK Unveils £10 Billion NHS Funding Overhaul and Workforce Reform
The AI User Nightmare: Private Claude Conversations Leaked to the Internet
UK: Former Football Association Leaders Call for World Cup Boycott Over FIFA Privatization Plan
Forbidden Love: China severs millions from their virtual partners
×