London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Feb 08, 2026

SNP plays longer game in bid for Scottish independence

SNP plays longer game in bid for Scottish independence

Support for Scottish independence needs to be higher and more consistent to force another referendum, the new SNP leadership believes.

In a rethink of strategy, Scotland's First Minister and new SNP leader Humza Yousaf wants to focus on making the case for independence because he knows pushing for a vote immediately will be rejected.

Mr Yousaf told the BBC this week that he wants a "consistent majority for independence".

Senior figures familiar with his thinking say there has been a shift in position since Nicola Sturgeon stood down - with Mr Yousaf wanting to prove independence is the settled will of Scottish voters.

They acknowledge Mr Yousaf has introduced an extra step in the process of forcing another referendum.

Ms Sturgeon had wanted to use the next general election in Scotland as a de facto referendum.

Mr Yousaf does not favour that policy but has said he will listen to SNP members about the next steps.

In opinion polls, support for Scottish independence consistently sits in the mid to high forties.

But senior figures acknowledge they have not yet moved the dial to show sustained support as a majority.

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the BBC: "The realisation has dawned on them that while support for independence has tended to be higher than it was in 2014, it tends to be just below 50%.

"If you want to win a referendum - and clearly make the case a referendum is justified - you need to start well ahead."

In the independence referendum in 2014, Scotland voted against becoming an independent country by 55% to 45%.

Since becoming first minister, Mr Yousaf has demanded a Section 30 order - to allow another referendum.

But that has not been accepted by the prime minister.

Mr Yousaf's allies acknowledge the position in Westminster is not going to change under the current government. The Supreme Court also made clear last year that Holyrood could not force another vote without Westminster's consent.

Sources say they now have to move the dial to force another referendum - and that there is no shortcut to making that happen.

They argue events may help change that.

In particular, they claim a Labour government could be forced to accept another referendum as the price of support in a hung Parliament.

Labour has said it would not cut any deals with the SNP.

Scotland voted against independence by 55% to 45% in 2014


Mr Yousaf's focus on the longer term aim comes as his party is confronted by multiple short term challenges.

There is the ongoing police investigation into the SNP.

Senior figures in the party expect Ms Sturgeon to be questioned by detectives soon.

Secondly, there are increasingly public tensions in the party, both at Westminster and Holyrood.

There is also the political challenge of Labour's revival in Scotland, and the potential threat Sir Keir Starmer's party poses to the SNP in the central belt and the west of Scotland.

Labour thinks it could win back as many as 20 seats in Scotland at the next general election.

Mr Yousaf is responding to this threat by portraying himself as the most left-leaning political leader in Scotland. He has talked about increasing taxes on higher earners to improve his "progressive" credentials.

Any strategy which involved waiting longer for an independence referendum would be a risk for the SNP leadership.

Some SNP politicians and activists want more immediate action.

Ms Sturgeon also faced criticism for relegating the importance of independence in the 2017 general election campaign - with some in her party arguing they failed to mobilise their key support and thus lost seats.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Confirms Imminent Increase in ETA Fee to £20 as Entry Rules Tighten
UK Signals Possible Seizure of Russia-Linked ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker in Escalation of Sanctions Enforcement
Epstein Scandal Piles Unprecedented Pressure on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Leadership
UK’s ‘Most Romantic Village’ Celebrates Valentine’s Day and Explores the Festival’s Rich History
The Implications of Expanding Voting Rights to Non-EU Foreign Residents in France
Ghislaine Maxwell to Testify Before US Congress on February 9
Al.com Acquired by Crypto.com Founder for $70 Million
Apple iPhone Lockdown Mode blocks FBI data access in journalist device seizure
Belgium: Man Charged with Rape After Faking Payment to Sex Worker
KPMG Urges Auditor to Relay AI Cost Savings
US and Iran to Begin Nuclear Talks in Oman
Winklevoss-Led Gemini to Slash a Quarter of Jobs and Exit European and Australian Markets
Canada Opens First Consulate in Greenland Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions
China unveils plans for a 'Death Star' capable of launching missile strikes from space
NASA allows astronauts to take smartphones on upcoming missions to capture special moments.
Trump administration to launch TrumpRx.gov for direct drug purchases
Investigation Launched at Winter Olympics Over Ski Jumpers Injecting Hyaluronic Acid
U.S. State Department Issues Urgent Travel Warning for Citizens to Leave Iran Immediately
Wall Street Erases All Gains of 2026; Bitcoin Plummets 14% to $63,000
Epstein Case Documents Reignite Global Scrutiny of Political and Business Elites
Eighty-one-year-old man in the United States fatally shoots Uber driver after scam threat
UK Royal Family Faces Intensifying Strain as Epstein-Linked Revelations Rock the Institution
Political Censorship: French Prosecutors Raid Musk’s X Offices in Paris
AI Invented “Hot Springs” — Tourists Arrived and Were Shocked
Tech Mega-Donors Power Trump-Aligned Fundraising Surge to $429 Million Ahead of 2026 Midterms
UK Pharma Watchdog Rules Sanofi Breached Industry Code With RSV Vaccine Claims Against Pfizer
Melania Documentary Opens Modestly in UK with Mixed Global Box Office Performance
Starmer Arrives in Shanghai to Promote British Trade and Investment
Harry Styles, Anthony Joshua and Premier League Stars Among UK’s Top Taxpayers
New Epstein Files Include Images of Former Prince Andrew Kneeling Over Unidentified Woman
Starmer Urges Former Prince Andrew to Testify Before US Congress About Epstein Ties
Starmer Extends Invitation to Japan’s Prime Minister After Strategic Tokyo Talks
Skupski and Harrison Clinch Australian Open Men’s Doubles Title in Melbourne
DOJ Unveils Millions of Epstein Files, Fueling Global Scrutiny of Elite Networks
France Begins Phasing Out Zoom and Microsoft Teams to Advance Digital Sovereignty
China Lifts Sanctions on British MPs and Peers After Starmer Xi Talks in Beijing
Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair to Reorient U.S. Monetary Policy Toward Pro-Growth Interest Rates
AstraZeneca Announces £11bn China Investment After Scaling Back UK Expansion Plans
Starmer and Xi Forge Warming UK-China Ties in Beijing Amid Strategic Reset
Tech Market Shifts and AI Investment Surge Drive Global Innovation and Layoffs
Markets Jolt as AI Spending, US Policy Shifts, and Global Security Moves Drive New Volatility
U.S. Signals Potential Decertification of Canadian Aircraft as Bilateral Tensions Escalate
Former South Korean First Lady Kim Keon Hee Sentenced to 20 Months for Bribery
Tesla Ends Model S and X Production and Sends $2 Billion to xAI as 2025 Revenue Declines
China Executes 11 Members of the Ming Clan in Cross-Border Scam Case Linked to Myanmar’s Lawkai
Trump Administration Officials Held Talks With Group Advocating Alberta’s Independence
Starmer Signals UK Push for a More ‘Sophisticated’ Relationship With China in Talks With Xi
Shopping Chatbots Move From Advice to Checkout as Walmart Pushes Faster Than Amazon
Starmer Seeks Economic Gains From China Visit While Navigating US Diplomatic Sensitivities
Starmer Says China Visit Will Deliver Economic Benefits as He Prepares to Meet Xi Jinping
×