London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 22, 2025

SNP plays longer game in bid for Scottish independence

SNP plays longer game in bid for Scottish independence

Support for Scottish independence needs to be higher and more consistent to force another referendum, the new SNP leadership believes.

In a rethink of strategy, Scotland's First Minister and new SNP leader Humza Yousaf wants to focus on making the case for independence because he knows pushing for a vote immediately will be rejected.

Mr Yousaf told the BBC this week that he wants a "consistent majority for independence".

Senior figures familiar with his thinking say there has been a shift in position since Nicola Sturgeon stood down - with Mr Yousaf wanting to prove independence is the settled will of Scottish voters.

They acknowledge Mr Yousaf has introduced an extra step in the process of forcing another referendum.

Ms Sturgeon had wanted to use the next general election in Scotland as a de facto referendum.

Mr Yousaf does not favour that policy but has said he will listen to SNP members about the next steps.

In opinion polls, support for Scottish independence consistently sits in the mid to high forties.

But senior figures acknowledge they have not yet moved the dial to show sustained support as a majority.

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the BBC: "The realisation has dawned on them that while support for independence has tended to be higher than it was in 2014, it tends to be just below 50%.

"If you want to win a referendum - and clearly make the case a referendum is justified - you need to start well ahead."

In the independence referendum in 2014, Scotland voted against becoming an independent country by 55% to 45%.

Since becoming first minister, Mr Yousaf has demanded a Section 30 order - to allow another referendum.

But that has not been accepted by the prime minister.

Mr Yousaf's allies acknowledge the position in Westminster is not going to change under the current government. The Supreme Court also made clear last year that Holyrood could not force another vote without Westminster's consent.

Sources say they now have to move the dial to force another referendum - and that there is no shortcut to making that happen.

They argue events may help change that.

In particular, they claim a Labour government could be forced to accept another referendum as the price of support in a hung Parliament.

Labour has said it would not cut any deals with the SNP.

Scotland voted against independence by 55% to 45% in 2014


Mr Yousaf's focus on the longer term aim comes as his party is confronted by multiple short term challenges.

There is the ongoing police investigation into the SNP.

Senior figures in the party expect Ms Sturgeon to be questioned by detectives soon.

Secondly, there are increasingly public tensions in the party, both at Westminster and Holyrood.

There is also the political challenge of Labour's revival in Scotland, and the potential threat Sir Keir Starmer's party poses to the SNP in the central belt and the west of Scotland.

Labour thinks it could win back as many as 20 seats in Scotland at the next general election.

Mr Yousaf is responding to this threat by portraying himself as the most left-leaning political leader in Scotland. He has talked about increasing taxes on higher earners to improve his "progressive" credentials.

Any strategy which involved waiting longer for an independence referendum would be a risk for the SNP leadership.

Some SNP politicians and activists want more immediate action.

Ms Sturgeon also faced criticism for relegating the importance of independence in the 2017 general election campaign - with some in her party arguing they failed to mobilise their key support and thus lost seats.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
After 200,000 Orders in 2 Minutes: Xiaomi Accelerates Marketing in Europe
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
New York Appeals Court Voids Nearly $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Against Trump While Upholding Fraud Liability
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
Child-free hotels spark controversy
North Korea is where this 95-year-old wants to die. South Korea won’t let him go. Is this our ally or a human rights enemy?
Hong Kong Launches Regulatory Regime and Trials for HKD-Backed Stablecoins
China rehearses September 3 Victory Day parade as imagery points to ‘loyal wingman’ FH-97 family presence
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
MSNBC Rebrands as MS NOW Amid Comcast’s Cable Spin-Off
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
Finnish MP Dies by Suicide in Parliament Building
Outrage in the Tennis World After Jannik Sinner’s Withdrawal Storm
William and Kate Are Moving House – and the New Neighbors Were Evicted
Class Action Lawsuit Against Volkswagen: Steering Wheel Switches Cause Accidents
Taylor Swift on the Way to the Super Bowl? All the Clues Stirring Up Fans
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Apple Expands Social Media Presence in China With RedNote Account Ahead of iPhone 17 Launch
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Cambridge Dictionary Adds 'Skibidi,' 'Delulu,' and 'Tradwife' Amid Surge of Online Slang
Bill Barr Testifies No Evidence Implicated Trump in Epstein Case; DOJ Set to Release Records
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
The CEO Who Replaced 80% of Employees for the AI Revolution: "I Would Do It Again"
Emails Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Character.ai Bets on Future of AI Companionship
China Ramps Up Tax Crackdown on Overseas Investments
Japanese Office Furniture Maker Expands into Bomb Shelter Market
Intel Shares Surge on Possible U.S. Government Investment
Hurricane Erin Threatens U.S. East Coast with Dangerous Surf
EU Blocks Trade Statement Over Digital Rule Dispute
EU Sends Record Aid as Spain Battles Wildfires
JPMorgan Plans New Canary Wharf Tower
Zelenskyy and his allies say they will press Trump on security guarantees
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Escalating Clashes in Serbia as Anti-Government Protests Spread Nationwide
The Drought in Britain and the Strange Request from the Government to Delete Old Emails
Category 5 Hurricane in the Caribbean: 'Catastrophic Storm' with Winds of 255 km/h
"No, Thanks": The Mathematical Genius Who Turned Down 1.5 Billion Dollars from Zuckerberg
The surprising hero, the ugly incident, and the criticism despite victory: "Liverpool’s defense exposed in full"
Digital Humans Move Beyond Sci-Fi: From Virtual DJs to AI Customer Agents
YouTube will start using AI to guess your age. If it’s wrong, you’ll have to prove it
×