London Daily

Focus on the big picture.

Shoddy Coronavirus Studies Are Going Viral And Stoking Panic

Scientists are rapidly posting findings about the new coronavirus outbreak online, accelerating the speed of scientific discoveries -and of misinformation.
Last Friday morning, after a week in which the coronavirus outbreak had been declared a global public health emergency, a group of scientists from India posted a paper online. A handful of genetic sequences in the new coronavirus matched those found in HIV, they reported, suggesting that this “uncanny similarity” meant the two diseases were linked.

A scientist in India blasted out the provocative finding to his more than 200,000 Twitter followers: “They hint at the possibility that this Chinese virus was designed [‘not fortuitous’]. Scary if true.” A Harvard researcher with tens of thousands of followers called it “very intriguing.” The official-looking, highly technical paper whipped dozens of onlookers into a frenzy, declaring on Twitter and at least one blog that it showed the virus was “man-made” and “not natural” and “prob. not random.”

But that day and throughout the weekend, an army of scientists also tore apart its claims and pointed out there was no proof the matches were anything but a meaningless coincidence.

For the second time in as many weeks, a segment of social media was freaking out over a coronavirus study that hadn’t been reviewed by experts or published in a journal. It was a “preprint,” or a preliminary draft, published on BioRxiv (pronounced “bio-archive”), a free repository that hosts thousands of unvetted papers about the biological sciences.

Preprint servers bypass the long, arduous timelines of traditional, peer-reviewed scientific publishing, and can lead to lightning-speed information sharing during outbreaks like this one. But the coronavirus is also bringing to light the pitfalls of this new system for the first time, as everyone from bad actors to naive ones grasp for new information in a panic-driven climate.

The “uncanny” paper was withdrawn by its authors on Sunday, putting an end to an undeniably messy situation that spread misinformation about a little-understood virus that has so far sickened upward of 20,600 people and killed more than 420, the vast majority near the outbreak’s epicenter in Wuhan, China.

Yet it was also a case of new research being shared, debated, and corrected in real time -something that many scientists have long wanted to see happen. Many still say that the benefits of instant scientific publishing far outweigh its downsides.

“This is exactly what BioRxiv is intended to do -it’s intended to be a place for timely discussion of results,” Russell Neches, a postdoctoral researcher who studies viral ecology at the Joint Genome Institute in Berkeley, California, told BuzzFeed News. An advocate for what’s called “open science,” where studies are freely accessible instead of hidden behind paywalls, Neches put a call out on Twitter over the weekend, asking scientists to give feedback on preprints about the new coronavirus, now numbered at more than 300 and increasing by the day.

Since the “uncanny” preprint went up, a swarm of researchers have left critiques in its comment section, posted comments on other preprints, and tweeted out their observations about the findings. Neches has been gratified to watch the corrections to the "uncanny" preprint happen but also wishes more experts had responded in the immediate hours after it went live.

“Part of what made the conspiracy theories really grow legs is the amount of time that passed where that preprint was up and getting a lot of attention, but still had no comments on it from scientists,” Neches said. If the article had been immediately debunked, people “probably wouldn’t have gotten so excited about it.”

The short-lived but fierce furor underscores how all research about the coronavirus right now -whether it takes the form of a preprint or not -is rapidly evolving. Last week, an article in one of the world’s most prestigious journals, the New England Journal of Medicine, made waves with its findings that someone with no symptoms can still be contagious. Fearing that the virus could be spread more widely than previously thought, US health officials cited it when declaring a national public health emergency last Friday. But within days, major flaws in the study became apparent.

Science is always subject to ongoing debate, something scientists proudly hold up as a feature, not a bug. But in an outbreak that’s playing out in unprecedented ways online, preliminary findings -some of which don’t stand up to scrutiny -can suddenly find a huge audience.

Traditional scientific publishing moves slowly. Researchers submit their findings one by one to journals. Then the manuscript goes to a handful of outside experts who give feedback and sometimes ask for more experiments.

If the final draft is accepted, it goes to press, usually appearing online first -albeit behind a paywall, making it inaccessible to many. A lot of scientists complain about the process being too long, sometimes biased, and riddled with inefficiencies. Peer review is notoriously inconsistent at catching errors, and retracting flawed studies can take months, even years.

BioRxiv, founded in 2013, is trying to significantly speed things up. Scientists submit their early drafts to the website, where an in-house team weeds out “obvious spam and clear garbage,” as well as submissions that aren’t scientific in nature, according to cofounder Richard Sever. All the papers that go up have disclaimers about how they’re not peer-reviewed and shouldn’t be treated as definitive.

A newer repository, MedRxiv, operates similarly, although with a few more hurdles to posting given the higher risks of publishing information about people’s health. Scientists must declare they have patient consent and approval from an independent ethics board. And, Sever says, MedRxiv staff screen out more studies that they believe should go through peer review first -for instance, a study that suggests that vaccines are dangerous and could be weaponized by anti-vaccine groups.

Preprints have only been around for a few years, but their benefits to the scientific community are already becoming clear. In 2017, after a cancer researcher spotted a preprint and contacted the scientist leading it, the pair started doing experiments together and published their results -seven months earlier than if they’d waited until the original study appeared in a journal.

And in the case of the coronavirus outbreak, preprints have helped get the word out about existing drugs that might be effective for treating patients.

But the nature of an outbreak unfolding live on social media means that all results, especially the most sensational ones, can go viral before they’re vetted.

One such preprint appeared on Jan. 24 on MedRxiv. It estimated that the coronavirus’s contagiousness, as measured by a variable called R0, was 3.8. That meant that -absent any interventions like quarantines or hospitalizations -every person who caught the disease could give it to almost four other people. That statistic went viral after Eric Feigl-Ding, a health economist affiliated with the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, tweeted about the preprint.

“HOLY MOTHER OF GOD -the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!!” he tweeted. “How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad -never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating.”

Meanwhile, many other scientists on Twitter -including virology experts, which Feigl-Ding is not -called out the study’s clear methodological issues and missing context, as well as Feigl-Ding’s sensationalist and inaccurate tweets. They pointed out that R0 is also not the final word on how dangerous a virus is, but rather a snapshot in time that changes as measures are taken to limit its spread. And by the time Feigl-Ding started tweeting, unknown to him, the researchers were already revising the R0 paper to have a lower estimate.

Then, on Friday, a group of scientists in New Delhi, India, uploaded to BioRxiv their preprint suggesting that the virus was linked to HIV. Once again, Feigl-Ding, who by this point had accumulated tens of thousands of followers in a matter of weeks, tweeted out the sensational findings. In nine tweets that reverberated around the internet, he quoted extensively from the study, noting that it was “not peer reviewed”: “Let’s not draw conclusions yet.” At the same time, he called the findings “very intriguing” and “bold.”

The HIV-coronavirus paper, too, drew swift criticism. Matthew Frieman, of the University of Maryland School of Medicine, told BuzzFeed News that the overlapping gene sequences the study’s authors linked to HIV are found in all kinds of viruses. And Amesh Adalja, of the Infectious Disease Society of America, said that even if the sequences look similar to ones in HIV, “that doesn’t tell us anything new about this coronavirus.”

Feigl-Ding deleted both of his tweet threads about the studies, though not before they were retweeted thousands of times. And the results had quickly spread to other parts of the internet, too. The blog ZeroHedge cited the HIV preprint, as well as Feigl-Ding’s tweets about it, to advance a conspiracy theory that the coronavirus might be an “artificially created bioweapon.” (The site was recently kicked off Twitter for, according to the social network, “violating our platform manipulation policy.”)

During fast-moving outbreaks like this one, critics say that traditional gatekeepers -like peer review or journals or the press -can get in the way of giving people the up-to-date information they need.

In an interview, Feigl-Ding said he views social media as a crucial way to explain science to laypeople who don’t read, or believe, traditional news sources. “There’s a whole confluence of different reasons that we need to explore alternative ways of communicating directly with the public,” he said.

The events of the last week have made Feigl-Ding come up with a new social media policy, he said, one that identifies preprints as the problem. “I’m not going to tweet about preprints going forward, until someone else who’s an expert has tweeted about it,” he said, adding, “There’s lots of things in life you wish you could take back.” (A Harvard spokesperson declined to comment on Feigl-Ding’s tweets.)

Maia Majumder, a biostatistician and epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School and Boston Children’s Hospital, said that now that the public is showing interest in preprints, scientists could take steps to proactively manage the conversation. For example, preprint pages could be covered with large watermarks saying that they’re preliminary, rather than just having a disclaimer at the top.

And if study authors share their preprints on Twitter, “I believe that myself and my colleagues have an obligation to frame the research in a way that is accessible to the audience at hand,” Majumder said by email.

Steven Salzberg, a professor of biomedical engineering, computer science, and biostatistics at Johns Hopkins University, was among the critics of the HIV paper. That evening, he tweeted: “and the conspiracy theorists have now learned to post papers on @biorxiv … great.”

But even he thought “that this event is a terrific illustration of the value of preprint servers,” Salzberg said by email on Monday, after the study was retracted.

“The paper was written too quickly, to respond to a crisis, and the authors submitted it without giving it the kind of scrutiny it needed,” he wrote. “If they’d gone to a journal, they would have waited months to learn about the flaws.” Online, he pointed out, the correction process wrapped up in just a few days.

Just because scientists may consider the matter to be settled, though, doesn’t mean the public does. Even after the preprint was withdrawn, it’s continued to circulate on Twitter.

On Monday night, one user directed their 18,000 followers to it: “Why is the MSM trying to downplay this information about how the Wu Flu was made in a lab for sure…”
Newsletter

Related Articles

London Daily
0:00
0:00
Close
Unelected PM of the UK holds an emergency meeting because a candidate got voted in… which he says is a threat to democracy…
You Are So Beautiful
Rob Schneider explains California reparations legislation.
Postmodern Jukebox European Tour Version
Who knew badminton could get so intense?
An old French tune (by Georges Brassens) Pomplamoose ft. John Schroeder
Farmers break through police barriers in Brussels.
Sattahip Motor Show 20
London's Iconic British Telecom Tower Sold To Become Hotel
SONATE AU CLAIR DE LUNE - Moonlight sonata
Ukraine Arrests Father-Son Duo In Lockbit Cybercrime Bust
A kiss to build a dream on
US Offers $15 Million For Info On Leaders Of Cybercrime Group Lockbit
Wonderful Tonight - Eric Clapton (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Russia Claims UK Cultural Agency Spied for Ukraine
Mean Blues
Apple warns against drying iPhones with rice
La Chansonnette
Alexei Navalny: UK sanctions Russian prison chiefs after activist's death
Pattaya Addicts
German economy is in 'troubled waters' - ministry
Franz Liszt - Liebestraum - Love Dream
In a recent High Court hearing, the U.S. argued that Julian Assange endangered lives by releasing classified information.
Dream a little dream of me
New video
Unchained Melody sung like you've NEVER heard!
Tucker Carlson says Boris Johnson wants "a million dollars, in Bitcoin or cash, from Tucker Carlson to talk about Ukraine.
Dave Brubeck - Take Five
Russia is rebuilding capacity to destabilize European countries, new UK report warns
Édith Piaf - Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien (Sofie)
EU Commission wants anti-drone defenses at Brussels HQ
Rondo Alla Turca
Von der Leyen’s 2nd-term pitch: More military might, less climate talk
Kiss of fire
Global Law Enforcement Dismantles Lockbit Ransomware Operation
Tom Jones - I´ll Never Fall In Love Again 1967, 1989, 2001
Prince William Urges End to Gaza Conflict
Israel Cachao López - Guajira Clásica
UK court to hear Assange's final appeal against extradition to the US, where he faces charges related to his journalistic work—the publication of a classified video in 2010 that exposed US war crimes against humanity.
Edward Maya - Stereo Love (feat. Vika Jigulina) (Extended Mix)
About 50-60% kids either chose to be YouTuber or influencer
Strauss - Radetzky March - Karajan
A viral video of Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce lying on a Canberra footpath is celebrated by his media mates.
La vie en rose
European Countries React to Navalny's Death by Summoning Russian Diplomats
The Temptations - My Girl (Smokey Robinson Tribute) 2006 Kennedy Cent
Israel has gone ‘beyond self-defence’ in Gaza, says Labour’s Streeting
Orlando Cachaito Lopez Redencion
English farmers to be offered ‘largest ever’ grant scheme amid food security concerns
Edith Piaf - NON, JE NE REGRETTE RIEN
Cameron government knew Post Office ditched Horizon IT investigation
RADETZKY MARCH-2008-Wien, New Year Concert
EU Calls for Immediate Ceasefire in Gaza Conflict
Only you (And you alone)
EU Vows To Hold Putin "Accountable" After Meeting Alexei Navalny's Wife
Strangers In The Night
EU Launches Probe Into TikTok Over Child Protection Under Digital Content Law
Charles Aznavour - La Boheme
The EU Initiates Naval Mission to Defend Red Sea Trade Routes
Summer time
EU and UK Announce Joint Effort on Migration
Sting and Stevie Wonder - Fragile (from Sting's 60th birthday concert)
Brazil's Lula Likens Gaza Operation to Holocaust, Israel Says "Red Line" Crossed
Aux Champs Elysees
Ministers Confirm Proposal to Prohibit Mobile Phone Usage in English Schools
Stand By Me - Ben E. King (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Microsoft-backed OpenAI valued at $80bn after company completes deal
La Mer (Beyond the Sea) – Avalon Jazz Band
‘Alexei would want to tell Russia not to give up fighting’
She
Rwandan Footballer's Dismissal Sparks Concerns Over UK Asylum Plan
Nathalie Song by Enzo Petrachi Stjepan Hauser Cello
Whisky Challenges China's Baijiu Market During New Year Celebrations
Shape of My Heart - Sting (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Avdiivka - Symbol Of Ukrainian Resistance Now In Control Of Russian Troops
Radiohead - Creep
Putin Critic Alexei Navalny's "Killers" Refusing To Hand Over Body, Say Allies
Quizás,Quizás,Quizás - Andrea Bocelli - Jennifer Lopez
"Historic Step": Zelensky Signs Security Pact With Germany
Perhaps, Perhaps, Perhaps - Multi-Couples
"Historic Step": Zelensky Signs Security Pact With Germany
Pentatonix Havana
20 Tech Giants Sign Effort To Fight AI Election Interference Across Globe
Paula Cole - Autumn Leaves
Joe Biden Accuses Putin of Causing Navalny's Death
Oscar Benton Bensonhurst Blues
Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny has died at the Arctic prison colony
OH NANANA vs ABUSADAMENTE
Tucker Carlson grocery shopping in Russia. This is so interesting.
Nina Simone - ”I Put A Spell On You”. Vezi aici cum cântă Jeremy Ragsd
Julian Assange's Wife Warns of His Death if Extradited to US
NIGHTWISH - The Phantom Of The Opera
‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners
Motorshow 2016 Tanjay Negros Oriental
Greece Legalizes Same-Sex Marriage and Adoption Rights
Monica Bellucci - Ti Amo
Hungarian Foreign Minister: Europeans will lose Europe, the Union's policy must change drastically
Michael Jackson - Billie Jean Milena The Voice France 2018
In Britain Homeowners are receiving CPO’s (Compulsory Purchase Orders) so their homes can be redistributed to migrants
Michael Buble (Help Me Make It Through The Night) feat Loren Allred
Memories Canon In D - Maroon 5 (Boyce Avenue piano acoustic cover)
Matteo Simoni - Marina
Maroon 5 - One More Night
Maroon 5 - Memories
Mark Knopfler - Brothers In Arms (Berlin 2007 Live)
Mark Knopfler & Emmylou Harris - Romeo And Juliet (Real Live Roadrunni
Marina, Marina - The LUCKY DUCKIES intimist live concert at Guimarães
Major Lazer & DJ Snake – Lean On Mauranne The Voice France 2016
Love Theme from Romeo and Juliet - Joslin - Henri Mancini, Nino Rota
LoLa & Hauser - Love Story
Linkin Park Jay-Z - Numb Encore (Live 8 2005)
Hallelujah Mennel Ibtissem, The Voice France Leonard Cohen
Leonard Cohen - Dance Me to the End of Love
Leonard Cohen & Natasha Rostova - Dance me to the end of love
La casa de papel - Bella Ciao
La Camisa Negra
L'italiano (Toto Cutugno) - The Gypsy Queens
Juanes - La Camisa Negra
Jonathan and Charlotte - Britain's Got Talent 2012 Live Semi Final - U
John Powell - Assassin's Tango
Joe Cocker - You Can Leave Your Hat On (LIVE in Dortmund)
Joe Cocker - Unchain My Heart 2002 Live
Joe Cocker - A Whiter Shade Of Pale
Jay Z & Alicia Keys - Empire State of Mind LIVE
Jason Mraz - Im Yours (live)
Jarrod Radnich - Bohemian Rhapsody - Virtuosic Piano Solo
James Blunt - You're Beautiful
James Blunt - You're Beautiful & Bonfire Heart (Live at The Nobel Peac)
If You Go Away - Helen Merrill & Stan Getz (Tribute to Virna Lisi)
I'LL BE MISSING YOU
I Say a Little Prayer
Hotel California ( Eagles ) 1994 Live
Historia de un amor - Luz Casal. Vezi interpretarea Biancăi Sumanariu
Here Comes The Sun - The Beatles (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover) on Spot
Heart - Stairway to Heaven Led Zeppelin - Kennedy Center Honors
HAVANA by Camila Cabello Zumba Pre Cooldown TML Crew Kramer Pastra
HAUSER and Señorita - I Will Always Love You
HAUSER - Waka Waka
HAUSER - Sway
HAUSER - Lambada
HAUSER - Historia de un Amor
HAUSER - Despacito
Great Pretender
Georgia May Foote & Giovanni Pernice Samba to 'Volare' - Strictly Come
Gary Moore - Still Got The Blues
GIPSY KINGS VOLARE Penelope Cruz
Fugees - Killing Me Softly With His Song
French Latino - Historia de un Amor
For A Few Dollars More The Danish National Symphony Orchestra (Live)
Flashdance • What a Feeling • Irene Cara
Filip Rudan - “Someone You Loved” Audicija 4 The Voice Hrvatska Sez
Eric Clapton - Wonderful Tonight
Enya - Only Time
Enrique Iglesias - Bailando (English Version) ft. Sean Paul
Enrique Iglesias - Bailamos
Elena Yerevan Historia de un amor
Ed Sheeran - Shape of You (Official Music Video)
Ed Sheeran - Perfect Symphony [with Andrea Bocelli]
Ed Sheeran - Perfect (Official Music Video)
Easy On Me - Adele (Boyce Avenue 90’s style piano acoustic cover) on S
ERA - Ameno
ELENA YEREVAN- Cancion Del Mariachi-IN STUDIO-2017 DPR
Dust In The Wind - Kansas (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood
Despacito x Shape Of You - Pentatonix
Deep Purple - Child In Time - Live (1970)
David Foster When A Man Loves A WomanIt's A Mans World (SealMichael Bo
Dance me to the end of Love ( Pi-Air Design )
Coolio - Gangsta's Paradise (feat. L.V.) [Official Music Video]
Conquest Of Paradise (Vangelis), played on Böhm Emporio organ
Cielito Lindo
Chico & The Gypsies - Bamboleo
Canción Del Mariachi - Antonio Banderas, Los Lobos • Desperado
Camila Cabello - Havana (Audio) ft. Young Thug
Camila Cabello - Havana ( cover by J.Fla )
California Dreamin' - The Mamas & The Papas José Feliciano (Boyce Ave
Buster Benton - Money Is The Name of The Game
Hallelujah Pentatonix
Bobby McFerrin - Don't Worry Be Happy (Official Music Video)
Bob Dylan - Knockin' On Heaven's Door Emilia The Voice Kids France
Besame Mucho - Cesaria Evora
Ben E. King - Stand by Me Sax Cover Alexandra Ilieva Thomann
Bella Ciao
Bella Ciao - INSTRUMENTAL
Beautiful in White x Canon in D (Piano Cover by Riyandi Kusuma)
Bad Romance - Vintage 1920's Gatsby Style Lady Gaga Cover ft. Ariana Savalas & Sarah Reich(1)
BELLA CIAO 2020 - KARAOKE ITALIANO
BAMBOLEO - Gipsy Kings • Antonio Banderas, Katya Virshilas
BAILANDO (original)
Awesome Ukrainian yodeler - SOFIA SHKIDCHENKO (with English subtitles)
Avicii - The Nights
Atom - The Great Gig in the Sky
Aretha Franklin - (You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman (Official Ly
Antonio Banderas - Cancion del Mariachi (Desperado)
André Rieu - Zorba's Dance (Sirtaki)
André Rieu - Can't Help Falling In Love
André Rieu & Mirusia - Ave Maria
Andrew Reyes Elton John - Don't Let The Sun Go Down The Voice 2020 (
Andreas Kümmert Whiter Shade Of Pale The Voice of Germany 2013 Showd
And I Love You So
All About That Bass - Postmodern Jukebox European Tour Version
Alan Walker - Faded (Piano Cover)
Ain't No Sunshine -- Bill Withers (cover by Canen 12 y.o.)
African music
Adriana Vidović - “Creep” Audicija 4 The Voice Hrvatska Sezona 3
Adriana Vidović - “Believer” Nokaut 3 The Voice Hrvatska Sezona 3
A Fistful of Dollars - The Danish National Symphony Orchestra and Tuva
4 Beautiful Soundtracks Relaxing Piano [10min]
2CELLOS - Whole Lotta Love vs. Beethoven 5th Symphony [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
2CELLOS - Smooth Criminal (Live at Suntory Hall, Tokyo)
2CELLOS - Smells Like Teen Spirit [Live at Sydney Opera House]
2CELLOS - Despacito [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
13 Year Old Girl Playing Il Silenzio (The Silence) - André Rieu
094.All About That Bass
00 - SADNESS PART 1
(Ghost) Riders In the Sky (American Outlaws Live at Nassau Coliseum, 1
(Everything I Do) I Do It For You - Bryan Adams (Boyce Avenue ft. Conn
What a wonderful world
Moon river
×