Reform UK Set to Win Significant Labour Seats, Study Shows
New analysis reveals that Reform UK could win 76 seats from Labour, including key constituencies across England and Wales.
A new analysis conducted by the polling company Focaldata, commissioned by the Hope Not Hate campaign group, shows that Reform UK could win 76 seats if a general election were held now, with 60 of those seats coming from Labour across England, Wales, and the 'red wall'.
The study, based on nearly 18,000 voters, reveals that a small swing towards Reform could see the party gain an additional 76 seats from Labour.
The research highlights a growing disillusionment among voters, particularly moderate, interventionist individuals who feel mainstream parties have failed to deliver.
Reform UK's influence appears strongest in seats with large white working-class populations, with limited inroads in more diverse metropolitan areas.
Senior Labour figures acknowledge the threat posed by Reform UK, which is gaining ground not only from the Conservatives but also from Labour, especially in areas where voters are dissatisfied with public services and living standards.
The analysis suggests that the UK could be entering a new era of four-party politics, with multiple marginal seats and a more fluid electorate.
Reform UK’s supporters are a diverse coalition, ranging from moderate voters to more radical groups, raising challenges for Labour as they seek to address voter concerns.
The poll underscores the importance for political parties to demonstrate their ability to deliver tangible improvements to voters’ lives, as Reform UK positions itself as a major force in British politics.
The study, based on nearly 18,000 voters, reveals that a small swing towards Reform could see the party gain an additional 76 seats from Labour.
The research highlights a growing disillusionment among voters, particularly moderate, interventionist individuals who feel mainstream parties have failed to deliver.
Reform UK's influence appears strongest in seats with large white working-class populations, with limited inroads in more diverse metropolitan areas.
Senior Labour figures acknowledge the threat posed by Reform UK, which is gaining ground not only from the Conservatives but also from Labour, especially in areas where voters are dissatisfied with public services and living standards.
The analysis suggests that the UK could be entering a new era of four-party politics, with multiple marginal seats and a more fluid electorate.
Reform UK’s supporters are a diverse coalition, ranging from moderate voters to more radical groups, raising challenges for Labour as they seek to address voter concerns.
The poll underscores the importance for political parties to demonstrate their ability to deliver tangible improvements to voters’ lives, as Reform UK positions itself as a major force in British politics.
