London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Jun 01, 2025

Recession in question as Britain’s economy achieves surprise growth in November due to World Cup

Recession in question as Britain’s economy achieves surprise growth in November due to World Cup

The economy grew by 0.1% in November, partly aided by the football World Cup, according to official figures which call into question predictions the UK is already in recession.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed pressure on demand from the effects of high inflation, but a boost from people packing pubs and bars to watch events unfold in Qatar.

Economists had predicted a negative growth figure - of around 0.2%.

The figure for November came on the back of a positive growth reading the previous month, largely explained by activity getting back to normal after disruption to output from the late Queen's death.

The additional bank holiday for the funeral in September saw most businesses close.

The Bank of England is among public bodies to have forecast that the UK fell into recession during the third quarter of 2022.

Should a reading by the ONS for the October to December period show a negative growth figure, then the economy will have met the criteria for recession: two consecutive quarters of contraction.

A fairly severe downwards shift in output last month is seen as unlikely.

The ONS said that gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3% in the three months to November.

That incorporates the decline of 0.6% in output measured during September and the 0.5% recovery in October.

ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan said: "The economy grew a little in November, with increases in telecommunications and computer programming helping to push the economy forward.

"Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games.

"This was partially offset by further falls in some manufacturing industries, including the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry, as well as falls in transport and postal, partially due to the impact of strikes.

"Over the last three months, however, the economy still shrank - mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September."

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the economy would need to shrink by 0.6% or more in December for the fourth quarter of 2022 to contract as a whole - triggering a technical recession.

The prospect of avoiding such a downturn is easing not only in the UK but across Europe and in the US too, but it does not mean that all is rosy.

Business groups warned that many sectors were struggling - and needed the support of government to protect jobs as energy-led costs continue to stifle orders and investment.

Pressure on squeezed consumers too is set to intensify as the Bank of England is still forecast to maintain interest rate increases to help inflation ease over the first half of 2023, raising bills in the process as mortgage costs climb.

In its reaction to the GDP data, the living standards-focused think-tank the Resolution Foundation said that while a 2022 recession was now likely to have been avoided, family incomes were still shrinking.

Jonathan Moyes, head of investment research at the Wealth Club investor service, said of the UK's prospects: "We have seen retailers report stronger than expected earnings reports for Q4 over the past week, and it appears a stronger than expected consumer services, and services more broadly, have helped the UK economy defy gloomy expectations.

"It may be too soon to mark the beginning of a turn in sentiment for the UK, but a quiet consensus appears to be forming.

"Energy prices are falling sharply, China is reopening and interest rate expectations have eased significantly," he wrote.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Hegseth Warns of Potential Chinese Military Action Against Taiwan
OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Output for Third Consecutive Month
Jamie Dimon Warns U.S. Bond Market Faces Pressure from Rising Debt
Turkey Detains Istanbul Officials Amid Anti-Corruption Crackdown
Taylor Swift Gains Ownership of Her First Six Albums
Bangkok Ranked World's Top City for Remote Work in 2025
Satirical Sketch Sparks Political Spouse Feud in South Korea
Indonesia Quarry Collapse Leaves Multiple Dead and Missing
South Korean Election Video Pulled Amid Misogyny Outcry
Asian Economies Shift Away from US Dollar Amid Trade Tensions
Netflix Investigates Allegations of On-Set Mistreatment in K-Drama Production
US Defence Chief Reaffirms Strong Ties with Singapore Amid Regional Tensions
Vietnam Faces Strategic Dilemma Over China's Mekong River Projects
Malaysia's First AI Preacher Sparks Debate on Islamic Principles
White House Press Secretary Criticizes Harvard Funding, Advocates for Vocational Training
France to Implement Nationwide Smoking Ban in Outdoor Spaces Frequented by Children
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
Russia's Fossil Fuel Revenues Approach €900 Billion Since Ukraine Invasion
U.S. Justice Department Reduces American Bar Association's Role in Judicial Nominations
U.S. Department of Energy Unveils 'Doudna' Supercomputer to Advance AI Research
U.S. SEC Dismisses Lawsuit Against Binance Amid Regulatory Shift
Alcohol Industry Faces Increased Scrutiny Amid Health Concerns
Italy Faces Population Decline Amid Youth Emigration
U.S. Goods Imports Plunge Nearly 20% Amid Tariff Disruptions
OpenAI Faces Competition from Cheaper AI Rivals
Foreign Tax Provision in U.S. Budget Bill Alarms Investors
Trump Accuses China of Violating Trade Agreement
Gerry Adams Wins Libel Case Against BBC
Russia Accuses Serbia of Supplying Arms to Ukraine
EU Central Bank Pushes to Replace US Dollar with Euro as World’s Main Currency
Chinese Woman Dies After Being Forced to Visit Bank Despite Critical Illness
President Trump Grants Full Pardons to Reality TV Stars Todd and Julie Chrisley
Texas Enacts App Store Accountability Act Mandating Age Verification
U.S. Health Secretary Ends Select COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Vatican Calls for Sustainable Tourism in 2025 Message
Trump Warns Putin Is 'Playing with Fire' Amid Escalating Ukraine Conflict
India and Pakistan Engage Trump-Linked Lobbyists to Influence U.S. Policy
U.S. Halts New Student Visa Interviews Amid Enhanced Security Measures
Trump Administration Cancels $100 Million in Federal Contracts with Harvard
SpaceX Starship Test Flight Ends in Failure, Mars Mission Timeline Uncertain
King Charles Affirms Canadian Sovereignty Amid U.S. Statehood Pressure
Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on iPhones Amid Dispute with Apple CEO
Putin's Helicopter Reportedly Targeted by Ukrainian Drones
Liverpool Car Ramming Incident Leaves Multiple Injured
Australia Faces Immigration Debate Following Labor Party Victory
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Founder Warns Against Trusting Regime in Nuclear Talks
Macron Dismisses Viral Video of Wife's Gesture as Playful Banter
Cleveland Clinic Study Questions Effectiveness of Recent Flu Vaccine
Netanyahu Accuses Starmer of Siding with Hamas
Junior Doctors Threaten Strike Over 4% Pay Offer
×