London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Jul 19, 2025

Recession in question as Britain’s economy achieves surprise growth in November due to World Cup

Recession in question as Britain’s economy achieves surprise growth in November due to World Cup

The economy grew by 0.1% in November, partly aided by the football World Cup, according to official figures which call into question predictions the UK is already in recession.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed pressure on demand from the effects of high inflation, but a boost from people packing pubs and bars to watch events unfold in Qatar.

Economists had predicted a negative growth figure - of around 0.2%.

The figure for November came on the back of a positive growth reading the previous month, largely explained by activity getting back to normal after disruption to output from the late Queen's death.

The additional bank holiday for the funeral in September saw most businesses close.

The Bank of England is among public bodies to have forecast that the UK fell into recession during the third quarter of 2022.

Should a reading by the ONS for the October to December period show a negative growth figure, then the economy will have met the criteria for recession: two consecutive quarters of contraction.

A fairly severe downwards shift in output last month is seen as unlikely.

The ONS said that gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3% in the three months to November.

That incorporates the decline of 0.6% in output measured during September and the 0.5% recovery in October.

ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan said: "The economy grew a little in November, with increases in telecommunications and computer programming helping to push the economy forward.

"Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games.

"This was partially offset by further falls in some manufacturing industries, including the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry, as well as falls in transport and postal, partially due to the impact of strikes.

"Over the last three months, however, the economy still shrank - mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September."

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the economy would need to shrink by 0.6% or more in December for the fourth quarter of 2022 to contract as a whole - triggering a technical recession.

The prospect of avoiding such a downturn is easing not only in the UK but across Europe and in the US too, but it does not mean that all is rosy.

Business groups warned that many sectors were struggling - and needed the support of government to protect jobs as energy-led costs continue to stifle orders and investment.

Pressure on squeezed consumers too is set to intensify as the Bank of England is still forecast to maintain interest rate increases to help inflation ease over the first half of 2023, raising bills in the process as mortgage costs climb.

In its reaction to the GDP data, the living standards-focused think-tank the Resolution Foundation said that while a 2022 recession was now likely to have been avoided, family incomes were still shrinking.

Jonathan Moyes, head of investment research at the Wealth Club investor service, said of the UK's prospects: "We have seen retailers report stronger than expected earnings reports for Q4 over the past week, and it appears a stronger than expected consumer services, and services more broadly, have helped the UK economy defy gloomy expectations.

"It may be too soon to mark the beginning of a turn in sentiment for the UK, but a quiet consensus appears to be forming.

"Energy prices are falling sharply, China is reopening and interest rate expectations have eased significantly," he wrote.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
Microsoft, US Lab to Use AI for Faster Nuclear Plant Licensing
Trump Walks Back Talk of Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Irish Tech Worker Detained 100 days by US Authorities for Overstaying Visa
Dimon Warns on Fed Independence as Trump Administration Eyes Powell’s Succession
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Jeff Bezos Considers Purchasing Condé Nast as a Wedding Gift
Ghislaine Maxwell Says She’s Ready to Testify Before Congress on Epstein’s Criminal Empire
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Google Secures Windsurf AI Coding Team in $2.4 Billion Licence Deal
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
South African Police Minister Suspended Amid Organised Crime Allegations
Nvidia CEO Claims Chinese Military Reluctance to Use US AI Technology
Hong Kong Advances Digital Asset Strategy to Address Economic Challenges
Australia Rules Out Pre‑commitment of Troops, Reinforces Defence Posture Amid US‑China Tensions
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
U.S. Resumes Deportations to Third Countries After Supreme Court Ruling
Excavation Begins at Site of Mass Grave for Children at Former Irish Institution
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid New U.S. Threats on Imports
Trump Defends Attorney General Pam Bondi Amid Epstein Memo Backlash
Renault Shares Drop as CEO Luca de Meo Announces Departure Amid Reports of Move to Kering
Senior Aides for King Charles and Prince Harry Hold Secret Peace Summit
Anti‑Semitism ‘Normalised’ in Middle‑Class Britain, Says Commission Co‑Chair
King Charles Meets David Beckham at Chelsea Flower Show
If the Department is Really About Justice: Ghislaine Maxwell Should Be Freed Now
NYC Candidate Zohran Mamdani’s ‘Antifada’ Remarks Spark National Debate on Political Language and Economic Policy
President Trump Visits Flood-Ravaged Texas, Praises Community Strength and First Responders
From Mystery to Meltdown, Crisis Within the Trump Administration: Epstein Files Ignite A Deepening Rift at the Highest Levels of Government Reveals Chaos, Leaks, and Growing MAGA Backlash
Trump Slams Putin Over War Death Toll, Teases Major Russia Announcement
Reparations argument crushed
Rainmaker CEO Says Cloud Seeding Paused Before Deadly Texas Floods
×