London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025

No 10 cautious over declaring Covid turning point despite fall in cases

No 10 cautious over declaring Covid turning point despite fall in cases

Downing Street says latest figures are ‘encouraging’ but impact of 19 July unlocking not yet reflected

Downing Street and scientists remained cautious about declaring a turning point in the outbreak on Monday night despite a huge drop in Covid case numbers for the sixth day in a row.

No 10 said it was “encouraging” that infections had fallen to their lowest level in three weeks at 24,950 confirmed cases, with Boris Johnson taking the decision to allow more double-vaccinated key workers to avoid isolation with a daily testing programme.

But the prime minister’s official spokesman said he still believed the UK was “not out of the woods yet” and highlighted the fact that the full impact of the 19 July unlocking has not yet been reflected in case numbers.

Several Whitehall health sources said the government was still extremely cautious about the implications of the falling case data, which cannot yet be fully explained by scientists.

Experts also pointed to the number of Covid-19 patients in hospital in England, which passed 5,000 for the first time since mid-March, as a sign that the pandemic was not over. Hospitalisations tend to reflect the Covid rates around two weeks earlier.

The seven-day average for hospital admissions, which smooths out irregularities in reporting over the weekend, has risen by 26% in the last week. Meanwhile, hospital bed occupancy for coronavirus patients has also increased significantly in the last week, with occupancy of mechanical ventilation beds rising by 31% and other bed occupancy up by 33%.

“We don’t think this is necessarily the point [at which] there’s no chance cases will go back up again,” one Whitehall health source said. “The 100,000-a-day figure that [the health secretary] Sajid [Javid] gave was based on modelling – it wasn’t picked out of nowhere. So we are trying to stay cautious. We want to keep an eye on the data and not hypothesise too much.”

But two sources at the department said they did not believe the falling case numbers could be entirely explained by a drop in testing, as there was “still a huge amount of testing being done”.

Ministers want the messaging to remain one of vigilance and caution to avoid people thinking the threat of Covid is over.

The move to release a huge extra list of key workers from quarantine requirements, however, marked a significant shift from the government’s insistence last week that only a very small number of critical staff would be exempt.

The government’s Covid-O committee decided on Monday afternoon to raise the number of workplace testing sites by 1,200 to 2,000. Staff permitted to take a test rather than isolate will now include refuse collectors, Prison Service staff, communications, water, chemicals and energy workers, members of the armed forces, vets, fish industry, HMRC staff and those working in pharmaceuticals.

The scheme was rolled out last week and was originally intended only for food industry workers but was expanded to police, fire and border staff. It has been hugely widened after Monday’s meeting of cabinet ministers.

“It’s all about ensuring there’s minimal disruption to people’s lives whilst at the same time remaining vigilant against the virus,” a No 10 source said.

Ministers decided to act after days of disruption to services, pockets of food shortages and damaging headlines, with industry and local councils warning of worse to come in the so-called “pingdemic” without more action to deal with the issue of isolating staff.

It is understood more than 25 workplace test sites are up and running at key food industry facilities, with the aim of there being 500 by the end of the week.

Despite the news about falling cases, however, No 10 was also resisting pressure from Tory MPs for more general relaxation of quarantine rules for the double-vaccinated in the population. A No 10 source said there was no inclination to bring forward the 16 August date when all those who have been fully jabbed will be exempt.

Dr Paul Donaldson, general secretary of the HCSA, the hospital doctors’ union, said Covid patients occupying hospital beds were “at levels close to the start of October despite case levels now three times higher”.

“However, we are beginning to see a faster pickup in this figure than last autumn, reflecting the rapid increase in case numbers over recent weeks. The connection between case numbers to more serious cases requiring hospitalisations has been weakened, it has not been eliminated,” he said.

An HCSA spokesperson confirmed some recent reports of people being asked to work their annual leave because of staff shortages.

Scientists are unclear about whether the recent fall in daily cases means the infections have passed their third-wave peak.


Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of the Wellcome foundation and a member of Sage, said it was too early to know if the peak had passed but “you can only celebrate a reduction in the caseload”. He also suggested that people are acting “much more cautiously than perhaps anybody could have imagined 10 days ago”.

“I think the big change, in terms of lifting restrictions, was actually, the prior change [step 3] rather than 19 July,” he told an audience at an event for the Institute for Government.

Writing for the Guardian, Prof Graham Medley, professor at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who chairs the Sage subgroup on pandemic modelling, said it was still “uncharted territory” and there was “considerable uncertainty about what the next two months hold”.

“Unfortunately, we will not be able to know if we are at a peak until we have passed it, probably by a few weeks,” he said.

Nearly nine out of 10 adults in the UK (88.1%) have had a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, while 70.5% of the adult population are fully vaccinated. Monday’s figures show that a further 24,551 people received their first dose, and 117,956 had their second.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
This Is How the 'Heist of the Century' Was Carried Out at the Louvre in Seven Minutes: France Humiliated as Crown with 2,000 Diamonds Vanishes
China Warns UK of ‘Consequences’ After Delay to London Embassy Approval
France’s Wealthy Shift Billions to Luxembourg and Switzerland Amid Tax and Political Turmoil
"Sniper Position": Observation Post Targeting 'Air Force One' Found Before Trump’s Arrival in Florida
Shouting Match at the White House: 'Trump Cursed, Threw Maps, and Told Zelensky – "Putin Will Destroy You"'
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
Dutch Government Seizes Chipmaker After U.S. Presses for Removal of Chinese CEO
Bessent Accuses China of Dragging Down Global Economy Amid New Trade Curbs
U.S. Revokes Visas of Foreign Nationals Who ‘Celebrated’ Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
AI and Cybersecurity at Forefront as GITEX Global 2025 Kicks Off in Dubai
DJI Loses Appeal to Remove Pentagon’s ‘Chinese Military Company’ Label
EU Deploys New Biometric Entry/Exit System: What Non-EU Travelers Must Know
Australian Prime Minister’s Private Number Exposed Through AI Contact Scraper
×