London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Feb 06, 2026

Lloyds predicts UK house prices will fall 8% next year

Lloyds predicts UK house prices will fall 8% next year

UK house prices will fall by 8% next year and then almost stagnate for the following four years, Lloyds Banking Group has predicted.

The UK's biggest mortgage lender, which runs the Halifax brand, gave a gloomy outlook for the UK economy.

It has set aside £668m to cover bad debts as rising interest rates make loans and mortgages less affordable.

The banking group announced pre-tax profits of £1.5bn in the third quarter of the year.

That was a 25% drop on the same period last year.

Banks typically make more money when interest rates rise as the gap between what they pay savers and what they charge borrowers widens, but the rapid increase in borrowing costs seen in the last year has made Lloyds gloomier about the overall economic outlook for the UK.

However, it said most of its mortgage customers would still be able to withstand cost-of-living pressures.

"So far at least, our customers are proving to be resilient and adapting well to the cost-of-living increases that we have seen," said the bank's chief financial officer, William Chalmers.

"We are deliberately ensuring that we lend to customers who are best placed to withstand potential future stresses on the macro level and in their own personal circumstances."


Customers facing arrears, defaults and write-offs remained low and below pre-pandemic levels, the bank said.

Mr Chalmers added that Lloyds' lending was skewed towards "slightly better off" customers to ensure they could pay back their loans if conditions got tougher.

The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is 2.25%, and Lloyds warned that this could peak at 4% in 2024 before falling back.

Mr Chalmers admitted that this higher interest rate environment could lead to a slowdown in the housing market in the years ahead.

An 8% drop in house prices, if it happens, risks putting some recent buyers into negative equity, especially if prices fail to recover for some time.

However, such a fall would not actually completely cancel out the increase in house prices in the last year. The most recent data from the Office for National Statistics shows that the price of the average UK home increased by 13.6% in the year to August to £296,000.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Belgium: Man Charged with Rape After Faking Payment to Sex Worker
KPMG Urges Auditor to Relay AI Cost Savings
US and Iran to Begin Nuclear Talks in Oman
Winklevoss-Led Gemini to Slash a Quarter of Jobs and Exit European and Australian Markets
Canada Opens First Consulate in Greenland Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions
China unveils plans for a 'Death Star' capable of launching missile strikes from space
NASA allows astronauts to take smartphones on upcoming missions to capture special moments.
Trump administration to launch TrumpRx.gov for direct drug purchases
Investigation Launched at Winter Olympics Over Ski Jumpers Injecting Hyaluronic Acid
U.S. State Department Issues Urgent Travel Warning for Citizens to Leave Iran Immediately
Wall Street Erases All Gains of 2026; Bitcoin Plummets 14% to $63,000
Epstein Case Documents Reignite Global Scrutiny of Political and Business Elites
Eighty-one-year-old man in the United States fatally shoots Uber driver after scam threat
UK Royal Family Faces Intensifying Strain as Epstein-Linked Revelations Rock the Institution
Political Censorship: French Prosecutors Raid Musk’s X Offices in Paris
AI Invented “Hot Springs” — Tourists Arrived and Were Shocked
Tech Mega-Donors Power Trump-Aligned Fundraising Surge to $429 Million Ahead of 2026 Midterms
UK Pharma Watchdog Rules Sanofi Breached Industry Code With RSV Vaccine Claims Against Pfizer
Melania Documentary Opens Modestly in UK with Mixed Global Box Office Performance
Starmer Arrives in Shanghai to Promote British Trade and Investment
Harry Styles, Anthony Joshua and Premier League Stars Among UK’s Top Taxpayers
New Epstein Files Include Images of Former Prince Andrew Kneeling Over Unidentified Woman
Starmer Urges Former Prince Andrew to Testify Before US Congress About Epstein Ties
Starmer Extends Invitation to Japan’s Prime Minister After Strategic Tokyo Talks
Skupski and Harrison Clinch Australian Open Men’s Doubles Title in Melbourne
DOJ Unveils Millions of Epstein Files, Fueling Global Scrutiny of Elite Networks
France Begins Phasing Out Zoom and Microsoft Teams to Advance Digital Sovereignty
China Lifts Sanctions on British MPs and Peers After Starmer Xi Talks in Beijing
Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair to Reorient U.S. Monetary Policy Toward Pro-Growth Interest Rates
AstraZeneca Announces £11bn China Investment After Scaling Back UK Expansion Plans
Starmer and Xi Forge Warming UK-China Ties in Beijing Amid Strategic Reset
Tech Market Shifts and AI Investment Surge Drive Global Innovation and Layoffs
Markets Jolt as AI Spending, US Policy Shifts, and Global Security Moves Drive New Volatility
U.S. Signals Potential Decertification of Canadian Aircraft as Bilateral Tensions Escalate
Former South Korean First Lady Kim Keon Hee Sentenced to 20 Months for Bribery
Tesla Ends Model S and X Production and Sends $2 Billion to xAI as 2025 Revenue Declines
China Executes 11 Members of the Ming Clan in Cross-Border Scam Case Linked to Myanmar’s Lawkai
Trump Administration Officials Held Talks With Group Advocating Alberta’s Independence
Starmer Signals UK Push for a More ‘Sophisticated’ Relationship With China in Talks With Xi
Shopping Chatbots Move From Advice to Checkout as Walmart Pushes Faster Than Amazon
Starmer Seeks Economic Gains From China Visit While Navigating US Diplomatic Sensitivities
Starmer Says China Visit Will Deliver Economic Benefits as He Prepares to Meet Xi Jinping
UK Prime Minister Starmer Arrives in China to Bolster Trade and Warn Firms of Strategic Opportunities
The AI Hiring Doom Loop — Algorithmic Recruiting Filters Out Top Talent and Rewards Average or Fake Candidates
Amazon to Cut 16,000 Corporate Jobs After Earlier 14,000 Reduction, Citing Streamlining and AI Investment
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Powell Faces DOJ Criminal Investigation During 2026 Decision
Putin’s Four-Year Ukraine Invasion Cost: Russia’s Mass Casualty Attrition and the Donbas Security-Guarantee Tradeoff
Wall Street Bets on Strong US Growth and Currency Moves as Dollar Slips After Trump Comments
UK Prime Minister Traveled to China Using Temporary Phones and Laptops to Limit Espionage Risks
Google’s $68 Million Voice Assistant Settlement Exposes Incentives That Reward Over-Collection
×