London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

Is the worst over? Experts divided on coronavirus peak as new infections slow in Hubei epicentre

Hubei health authority says new infection numbers have fallen 57 per cent in six days, but scientists caution that factors such as under-reporting could change this Epidemiologist says if containment has worked it will bring ‘dramatic reduction’ in new cases in mid-to-late February

New coronavirus infections in China outside the epicentre of Hubei province have fallen for seven days in a row, according to health authorities in the country, seemingly in line with predictions by some infectious disease specialists that the deadly outbreak may peak this month.

However, the experts caution that unreported information could upend any outlook for the disease and its behaviour, while others say it is too soon to try to make predictions.

China’s National Health Commission (NHC) reported 381 new infections in mainland China outside Hubei on Monday, compared to 890 on February 3 – a drop of 57 per cent.

In Hubei excluding Wuhan city, where the outbreak began almost two months ago, the daily number of new infections fell for six consecutive days to 545 on Monday from 1,221 on Wednesday, according to provincial health authority figures. That is down 55 per cent.



“The new infection rate in all regions excluding Hubei province declined for seven consecutive days since February 3. Even if you include Hubei province and Wuhan, the national infection rate is declining,” said NHC official He Qinghua at a press conference on Tuesday morning.

While the pace of new infections seems to be slowing, China reported a nationwide total of 2,478 new cases and a record single-day high of 108 deaths on Monday. The previously unknown virus that brings on pneumonia-like symptoms has now killed 1,018 people in China and cumulative infections total 42,638.

Most deaths and infections remain concentrated in Wuhan, which has a population of 11 million and is a major transport and industrial centre. A total of 748 deaths and 18,454 infections were reported there as of Tuesday.

Hospitals in Wuhan and surrounding cities in the province have struggled to cope with the surge in patients, in some cases being overwhelmed and lacking in staff and equipment. Two temporary field hospitals and at least 11 makeshift medical shelters have been built to cope with the demand. Most of the province is under travel restrictions to try to halt the spread of the disease.

Some researchers have created mathematical models to try to predict the course of the outbreak, which has been designated as an international emergency by the World Health Organisation.

One open-access data model published on Monday by scientists at Xian Jiaotong-Liverpool University in eastern Jiangsu province predicted a sharp decline in new confirmed infections next week and falling close to zero by February 23. However, the developers said other factors could affect the model.

“While this appears to be a relatively rapid near-end to new, confirmed cases, we must keep in mind that factors could change the trend or that the data on current cases could be under-reported, which would change the prediction,” said Yi Zhou, a lecturer at the university.

“If nothing else occurs that would change the trend, this model does suggest the worst is over for new infections.”

Another predictive mathematical model, published by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine on Friday, estimated that the outbreak would peak in mid-to-late February.

Epidemiology professor W. Ian Lipkin, director of the Centre for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University in New York, also said there should be “dramatic reductions” in mid-to-late February, if methods of containment have been effective.

“If we have an early spring, this should make a dramatic difference in the rate of acquisition of new infections. So the dates to think about are the end of February and whenever the temperature begins to climb,” said Lipkin at a news conference on Sunday.

However, some epidemiologists have disputed the accuracy of the official data from China, while reports in Chinese media such as Caixin have reported delays and inaccuracies in diagnosis methods, which suggested that the true number of infections may be higher.

“The data from China are so crude that it is impossible to get an accurate picture of what is going on,” said John Edmunds, an expert in infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

“It is very difficult to predict the timing of an epidemic peak, as it is highly sensitive to a range of factors, many of which are uncertain and are difficult to estimate,” said Jonathan Read, senior lecturer in biostatistics at Lancaster University.

“From 23 January onwards, a range of travel restrictions have been imposed within China. We don’t yet know the impact of these and because we don’t know how effective these are likely to be, any epidemic forecast is likely to be unreliable,” Read said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
US Imposes New Tariffs on Brazilian Exports Amid Political Tensions
Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of a historic peace deal.
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
U.S. Enacts Sweeping Tax and Spending Legislation Amid Trade Policy Shifts
Football Mourns as Diogo Jota and Brother André Silva Laid to Rest in Portugal
Labour Expected to Withdraw Support for Special Needs Funding Model
Leaked Audio Reveals Tory Aide Defending DEI Record
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
London Stock Exchange Faces Historic Low in Initial Public Offerings
A new online platform has emerged in the United Kingdom, specifically targeting Muslim men seeking virgin brides
Trump Celebrates Independence Day with B-2 Flyover and Signs Controversial Legislation
Boris Johnson Urges Conservatives to Ignore Farage
SNP Ordered to Update Single-Sex Space Guidance Within Days
Starmer Set to Reject Calls for Wealth Taxes
Stolen Century-Old Rolls-Royce Recovered After Hotel Theft
Macron Presses Starmer to Recognise Palestinian State
Labour Delayed Palestine Action Ban Over Riot Concerns
Swinney’s Tax Comments ‘Offensive to Scots’, Say Tories
High Street Retailers to Enforce Bans on Serial Shoplifters
Music Banned by Henry VIII to Be Performed After 500 Years
Steve Coogan Says Working Class Is Being ‘Ethnically Cleansed’
Home Office Admits Uncertainty Over Visa Overstayer Numbers
JD Vance Questions Mandelson Over Reform Party’s Rising Popularity
Macron to Receive Windsor Carriage Ride in Royal Gesture
Labour Accused of ‘Hammering’ Scots During First Year in Power
BBC Head of Music Stood Down Amid Bob Vylan Controversy
Corbyn Eyes Hard-Left Challenge to Starmer’s Leadership
London Tube Trains Suspended After Major Fire Erupts Nearby
Richard Kemp: I Felt Safer in Israel Under Attack Than in the UK
Cyclist Says Police Cited Human Rights Act for Riding No-Handed
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Musk Battles to Protect Tesla Amid Trump Policy Threats
Air France-KLM Acquires Majority Stake in Scandinavian Airlines
UK Educators Sound Alarm on Declining Child Literacy
Shein Fined €40 Million in France Over Misleading Discounts
Brazil’s Lula Visits Kirchner During Argentina House Arrest
Trump Scores Legislative Win as House Passes Tax Reform Bill
Keir Starmer Faces Criticism After Rocky First Year in Power
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History Announced by DOJ
×