London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025

Is a no-deal Brexit back on the table?

The government intends to bring down a Brexit process guillotine at the end of December 2020.

If we haven't agreed a trade deal by then, we are out anyway. The ghost of no-deal, it seems, will be haunting business in Christmas future.

The financial markets took fright and we saw the pound immediately give up all the gains it enjoyed since the Conservatives won a thumping majority last Friday.

Suddenly pundits and investors who thought an 80-seat majority would neutralise the party's hard Brexit elements prepared - or even wanting - to leave without a deal were seemingly proved wrong.

Many businesses who wanted to press the "invest now" button may have wavered this morning.

The previous parliamentary brake cables preventing the UK driving off a Brexit cliff have been cut and Thelma Johnson and Louise Cummings are driving merrily towards the edge.

That's the movie.

In real life, Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings (and Michael Gove) really don't want to drive over the edge.

They all privately acknowledge that a no-deal Brexit would be a very bad outcome for the UK economy and the Prime Minister knows that would jeopardise his ambition to win multiple terms in Number 10.


Post-election chest beating?

Business leaders in the UK have also been slow to sound the alarm over a new potential cliff edge in December.

They know that the government found the threat of no-deal very politically useful in renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement (even if they also think Theresa May's deal was better for business).

Many also think that this is a bit of post-election chest beating - a sentiment shared in Brussels.

According to my colleague Katya Adler, there is also a growing consensus that it is possible to do a "bare bones" trade deal by next year which can then be added to over time.

In other words, you can extend without extending.

It also adds to the Johnsonian narrative of possessing super powers when it comes to negotiating things no-one thought possible.

There is another camp which believes that enacting a law limiting the negotiating period could actually provide political cover for Mr Johnson to concede some ground to the EU if that becomes necessary towards crunch time next year.

Rupert Harrison, George Osborne's former Chief of Staff and now portfolio manager at the world's biggest money manager Blackrock summed up in a tweet what many in financial markets are thinking.

"Anyone who thinks either side will contemplate a damaging cliff edge has learned nothing from the revealed preferences of the last year".

In other words - when push comes to shove, both sides will find a way to avoid the edge of the cliff.

One thing we learned this morning the political shadow boxing of the last three years is not over. Indeed, it is arguably just starting.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
FBI Removes Agents Who Kneeled at 2020 Protest, Citing Breach of Professional Conduct
Trump Alleges ‘Triple Sabotage’ at United Nations After Escalator and Teleprompter Failures
Shock in France: 5 Years in Prison for Former President Nicolas Sarkozy
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
BNP Paribas Abandons Ban on 'Controversial Weapons' Financing Amid Europe’s Defence Push
Typhoon Ragasa Leaves Trail of Destruction Across East Asia Before Making Landfall in China
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Big Banks Rebuild in Hong Kong as Deal Volume Surges
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Arnault Denounces Proposed Wealth Tax as Threat to French Economy
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Denmark Investigates Drone Incursion, Does Not Rule Out Russian Involvement
Lilly CEO Warns UK Is ‘Worst Country in Europe’ for Drug Prices, Pulls Back Investment
Nigel Farage Emerges as Central Force in British Politics with Reform UK Surge
Disney Reinstates ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ after Six-Day Suspension over Charlie Kirk Comments
U.S. Prosecutors Move to Break Up Google’s Advertising Monopoly
Nvidia Pledges Up to $100 Billion Investment in OpenAI to Power Massive AI Data Center Build-Out
U.S. Signals ‘Large and Forceful’ Support for Argentina Amid Market Turmoil
Nvidia and Abu Dhabi’s TII Launch First AI-&-Robotics Lab in the Middle East
Vietnam Faces Up to $25 Billion Export Loss as U.S. Tariffs Bite
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Indonesia Court Upholds Military Law Amid Concerns Over Expanded Civilian Role
Larry Ellison, Michael Dell and Rupert Murdoch Join Trump-Backed Bid to Take Over TikTok
Trump and Musk Reunite Publicly for First Time Since Fallout at Kirk Memorial
Vietnam Closes 86 Million Untouched Bank Accounts Over Biometric ID Rules
×