London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jul 29, 2026

Inflation sticking around in 2022

Inflation sticking around in 2022

American consumers are grappling with the fastest price increase in decades, with the cost of everything from cars to gasoline to food soaring nationwide.

And the problem may get worse before it starts to improve.

In a recent analyst note to clients, Goldman Sachs economists warned that pandemic-induced disruptions in the global supply chain – which have caused congestion in ports and warehouses nationwide – could last longer than expected as surging demand struggles to keep up, meaning that inflation metrics will remain "quite high for much of next year."

"It is now clear that this process will take longer than initially expected, and the inflation overshoot will likely get worse before it gets better," they wrote.

Inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, has climbed to the highest level since February 1982. In November, the personal consumption expenditures price index jumped to 5.7%, well above the Fed's preferred target of 2%. The data is further evidence of a spike in prices illustrated by a separate measure – the Consumer Price Index – which showed inflation rose by 6.8% in November from the previous year.

Customers wait in line to check out during a Black Friday sale at Macy's, Nov. 26, 2021, in Indianapolis.


The hotter-than-expected inflation report will likely reinforce the Federal Reserve's decision in December to accelerate the withdrawal of its monetary support for the U.S. economy and could create additional pressure on the central bank to further tighten policy in 2022 by hiking interest rates.

Although policymakers voted to hold rates near zero, where they have sat since March 2020, new economic projections show that every Fed official has penciled in at least one rate hike next year – a considerable shift from September, when half of the central bankers believed interest rate increases were not warranted until at least 2023.

Officials now project rates to stand at 0.9% at the end of 2022, 1.6% at the end of 2023 and 2.1% at the end of 2024.

At the conclusion of its most recent policy-setting meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee said that it would double the reduction of its asset-purchase program to $30 billion a month, a timeline that could phase out the purchases entirely by March rather than the original June trajectory laid out last month.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, during a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, D.C.


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that he still believes consumer prices will fall next year as bottlenecks at supply chains clear up, but he also warned of a growing risk of persistently high prices. The decision to speed up its withdrawal of support, Powell said, stems from a spate of October indicators, including rising wages, half a million new jobs and a 0.9% monthly increase in consumer prices.

"There’s a real risk now," Powell said at a press conference to explain the Fed's decision. "I believe that inflation may be more persistent…the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched has increased."

The Goldman Sachs economists – who projected that core PCE inflation will rise from 3.6% to 4.4% by the end of 2021 – seconded that opinion. They have forecast that inflation will cool slightly to 2.3% at the end of 2022 and fall to 2.1% by the end of 2023.

"We do not think that aggregate demand is on an unsustainable trajectory or that inflation expectations have become unanchored, and the overshoot should therefore ultimately prove transitory," the economists wrote.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
NHS Leaders Warn Royal Mail Tariff Increases Will Raise Administrative Costs
Immigration Remains the Public's Top Concern in Britain, Ipsos Poll Finds
Britain Approves 16 New Grid Storage Projects to Strengthen Electricity Network
London-Listed Merger Activity Climbs Even as IPO Market Remains Weak
Institute of Directors Warns High Energy Costs and Taxes Continue to Weigh on UK Businesses
North Sea Industry Calls for Faster Approval of £10 Billion Rosebank and Jackdaw Projects
UK Inflation Eases to 2.6% but Higher Energy Costs Could Renew Price Pressures
Burnham Holds Talks With Saudi and Qatari Leaders on Middle East Security and Energy
Burnham and Zelenskyy Announce UK Electronic Warfare Technology Cooperation During London Visit
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Launches Cross-Party Push for Social Care Reform in England
Trump says Israel ‘would not survive’ without US
France Evacuates Atlantic Coast Resorts as Wildfire Risk Rises Again
Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake Strikes Kumamoto as Rescuers Search Collapsed Buildings
OpenAI Faces Demands for Full Disclosure After Models Breach Hugging Face
Nvidia Reportedly Takes Vast Texas Data-Centre Lease to Underwrite AI Expansion
Royal Collection Trust Income Falls as Palace Visits Retreat From Record Highs
FIFA’s Private-Investment Plan for World Cup Rights Draws European Revolt
Ministers Examine Social-Care Levy as Burnham Seeks Funding Settlement
UK Attractions Sector Forecast to Add £587 Million in Visitor Spending
England Coast Path Extends With New Suffolk Estuary Walking Route
Attorney General Wins Longer Jail Term for Fatal Dangerous Driving Case
Andrew and Tristan Tate Remain in U.S. Custody Pending UK Extradition
Royal Fleet Auxiliary Workers Secure Above-Inflation Pay Deal
Prime Minister Seeks Cross-Party Agreement on Social Care Reform
Court Upholds Competition Ruling Against Drugmakers Over Hydrocortisone Prices
UK Unveils Major Technical Education Reform for Secondary Schools
UK Judge Rebukes Home Office Over AI-Generated Errors in Asylum Case
UK and Ukraine Agree to Share Electronic Warfare Technology
Apple Briefly Crosses Five Trillion Dollar Valuation as Investors Retreat From AI Bets
Badenoch Offers Tory Votes to Keep Serious Offenders in Prison
Why Americans Queue for $15 Ice Cream and a $100 Caviar Pint
Another AI Genius Left the United States — and Silicon Valley Is Starting to Worry
Shein Reports $99mn Loss as Trade Barriers Test Low-Cost Model
CXMT Gains 466% in China’s Biggest IPO Since 2010
Amazon Seeks Approval for 5,105-Satellite Mobile Network
Burnham Puts School-to-Work Reform at Centre of Welfare Strategy
Johnson & Johnson Agrees to $5.5 Billion Talc Lawsuit Settlement
EU AI Act Shapes Global Corporate Standards, Study Finds
UK-Japan Relations Expected to Deepen Under Burnham Government
Burnham Signals Tough Decisions on Council Tax Reform
UK Inflation Slows to 2.6% in June
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75%
Prime Minister Burnham Opens Talks With Business Leaders on Economic Growth
Government Launches 'Number Ten North' to Drive UK Devolution
Labour Regains Poll Lead After Burnham's First Weeks in Office
Prime Minister Burnham Rules Out Early UK General Election Before 2029
Burnham Rules Out Replacing Council Tax and Stamp Duty
Fresh Heatwave Threatens to Rekindle France’s Historic Wildfire Crisis
The Burnham government is seeking to establish its credibility through ambitious social care reform while maintaining fiscal discipline and public confidence in the National Health Service. Labour's early improvement in opinion polls provides political momentum, but sustained support will depend on delivering tangible policy outcomes. Britain continues to reinforce its role in European security through long-term support for Ukraine, while climate-related risks, including increasingly severe wildfires across England and Scotland, are becoming a more prominent national resilience challenge alongside economic uncertainty.
United Kingdom Economy Remains Exposed to Global Energy Risks
×