London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Aug 05, 2026

Inflation sticking around in 2022

Inflation sticking around in 2022

American consumers are grappling with the fastest price increase in decades, with the cost of everything from cars to gasoline to food soaring nationwide.

And the problem may get worse before it starts to improve.

In a recent analyst note to clients, Goldman Sachs economists warned that pandemic-induced disruptions in the global supply chain – which have caused congestion in ports and warehouses nationwide – could last longer than expected as surging demand struggles to keep up, meaning that inflation metrics will remain "quite high for much of next year."

"It is now clear that this process will take longer than initially expected, and the inflation overshoot will likely get worse before it gets better," they wrote.

Inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, has climbed to the highest level since February 1982. In November, the personal consumption expenditures price index jumped to 5.7%, well above the Fed's preferred target of 2%. The data is further evidence of a spike in prices illustrated by a separate measure – the Consumer Price Index – which showed inflation rose by 6.8% in November from the previous year.

Customers wait in line to check out during a Black Friday sale at Macy's, Nov. 26, 2021, in Indianapolis.


The hotter-than-expected inflation report will likely reinforce the Federal Reserve's decision in December to accelerate the withdrawal of its monetary support for the U.S. economy and could create additional pressure on the central bank to further tighten policy in 2022 by hiking interest rates.

Although policymakers voted to hold rates near zero, where they have sat since March 2020, new economic projections show that every Fed official has penciled in at least one rate hike next year – a considerable shift from September, when half of the central bankers believed interest rate increases were not warranted until at least 2023.

Officials now project rates to stand at 0.9% at the end of 2022, 1.6% at the end of 2023 and 2.1% at the end of 2024.

At the conclusion of its most recent policy-setting meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee said that it would double the reduction of its asset-purchase program to $30 billion a month, a timeline that could phase out the purchases entirely by March rather than the original June trajectory laid out last month.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, during a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, D.C.


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that he still believes consumer prices will fall next year as bottlenecks at supply chains clear up, but he also warned of a growing risk of persistently high prices. The decision to speed up its withdrawal of support, Powell said, stems from a spate of October indicators, including rising wages, half a million new jobs and a 0.9% monthly increase in consumer prices.

"There’s a real risk now," Powell said at a press conference to explain the Fed's decision. "I believe that inflation may be more persistent…the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched has increased."

The Goldman Sachs economists – who projected that core PCE inflation will rise from 3.6% to 4.4% by the end of 2021 – seconded that opinion. They have forecast that inflation will cool slightly to 2.3% at the end of 2022 and fall to 2.1% by the end of 2023.

"We do not think that aggregate demand is on an unsustainable trajectory or that inflation expectations have become unanchored, and the overshoot should therefore ultimately prove transitory," the economists wrote.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Energy Security Faces Pressure From Middle East Conflict and Red Sea Disruptions
UK Government Expands Employment Discrimination Review Amid Labour Market Changes
UK Campaigners Call for Ban on Toxic Flea Treatments Linked to Water Pollution
MI6 Ranked Europe’s Leading Foreign Intelligence Service in Independent Review
Houthi Missile Attack on Saudi Oil Tanker Raises Further Red Sea Shipping Concerns
Palantir Faces UK Tax Criticism After Paying Two Million Pounds in Corporation Tax
Advanced AI Models Show Unexpected Behaviour During UK Cybersecurity Testing
Bank of England Introduces Tougher Artificial Intelligence Testing Rules for Financial Firms
Next Raises Annual Profit Forecast to One Point Two Four Billion Pounds After Strong Summer Sales
New UK Visa Rules Tighten Skilled Worker, Student and Family Migration Routes
UK Government Proposes New Equal Pay Enforcement Powers for Employers
UK High Court Blocks Home Office Deportation Policy for Alleged Trafficking Victims
UK Health Secretary Yvette Cooper Announces Major Reform of NHS Maternity Services
BP Reports Four-Year High Quarterly Profit of Five Point Seven Billion Dollars Amid Energy Market Turmoil
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at Three Point Seven Five Percent as UK Growth Remains Weak
Spain and Morocco Trade Blame After 72,000 Migrants Enter Ceuta
Met Police Investigated Journalist Who Questioned Cambridge Professor
Badenoch Defends Tory Candidate Jailed for Antisemitic Abuse of Luciana Berger
NHS Spends £240m a Year Storing Paper Records Despite Digital Push
Apple Seeks Court Order to Stop OpenAI Using Alleged Trade Secrets
Breaking With the Past: One of the World’s Smallest Countries Changes Its Name
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
Comcast: Tied to a Chair and Hit in the Face With Cake: The Regular Humiliation Ritual at the US Corporate Giant
Aston Martin Faces Legal Threat Over £550m Rescue Deal
Conservative Party and Reform UK Face Growing Scrutiny Over Political Transparency
GMB and Public Sector Unions Prepare for Wider Debate Over Government Priorities
UK Government Faces Pressure to Address National Water Infrastructure Failures
NHS Radiographers Report Rising Racist Abuse From Patients
Breast Cancer Experts Call for Overhaul of NHS Diagnostic Approach
UK Government Reviews Prison Policy After Debate Over Capacity and Public Safety
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over Leadership Discussions and Five Million Pound Donation
Conservative Party Faces Candidate Controversy Over Former Antisemitic Activist
UK Energy Industry Pushes for Greater Role for Domestic Oil and Gas Production
Gatwick Expansion Debate Continues as Airport Prepares for Second Runway Construction
Reform UK Wants the Royal Navy to Return Channel Boats to France
Government Faces Pressure Over Charity Funding Linked to Illegal Israeli Settlements
UK Fire Chiefs Demand Ban on Disposable Barbecues During Severe Drought
Medical Review Warns Current Breast Cancer Guidelines Miss Many Young Women
NHS Mental Health Trust Announces Twenty-Five Million Pound Service Cuts
MI6 Rated Europe’s Most Capable Foreign Intelligence Service in International Review
UK Watchdog Finds Serious Failures in Electronic Offender Monitoring System
BP Chief Warns UK Must Protect Domestic Oil and Gas Capacity
Water Supply Crisis Threatens England’s Housing Expansion Plans
UK Government Rewrites Procurement Rules to Prioritise Jobs Over Environmental Targets
English Channel Rescue Operation Saves One Hundred Seventy-Three Migrants After Boat Capsizes
Gatwick Airport Wins Legal Approval for Second Runway Expansion
UK Government Tightens Early Prison Release Scheme After Public Backlash Over Offender Freedoms
US and Japan Step In to Support the Yen in Rare Joint Intervention
The AI Pricing Problem: Companies Cannot Predict Their Own Bills
Europe’s Heat and Drought Are Now Disrupting Power, Shipping and Tourism
×