London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Oct 02, 2026

Inflation likely to hit 5%, warns Bank of England chief economist

Inflation likely to hit 5%, warns Bank of England chief economist

The Bank of England's new chief economist has warned that UK inflation is likely to hit or surpass 5% by early next year.

Huw Pill told the Financial Times that the Bank would have a "live" decision to make at its next interest rate-setting meeting on 4 November.

It follows recent comments from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey who said it "will have to act" on inflation.

The UK interest rate has been at a historic low of 0.1% since March 2020.

Recent data showed that inflation growth slowed to 3.1% in the year to September. However, it is expected to increase because of rising energy costs, higher wages to fill record vacancy numbers and supply chain disruption.

Mr Pill, who succeeded the Bank of England's former chief economist Andy Haldane last month, said he would "not be shocked" to see inflation reach 5% or above in the coming months.

He told the Financial Times: "That's a very uncomfortable place for a central bank with an inflation target of 2% to be."

Huw Pill became the Bank of England's chief economist in early September

While Mr Pill declined to say how he would vote when the Bank's interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee meets early next month - stating "it is finely balanced" - he said: "I think November is live."

Separately, a survey of consumers found that a high proportion of them expect inflation to rise over the next 12 months.

GfK, the market research group, said that 48% of people it surveyed in October think inflation will accelerate, compared with 34% in September.

Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said: "More and more shoppers expect that costs for goods and services will jump dramatically in the next 12 months.

"This rapid increase will impact our ability to shop and save, and our willingness to spend, at a time when our incomes are outpaced by inflation."

'Tough time'


Tony Brown, chief executive of New Start 2020, which owns Beales department stores, told the BBC's Today programme that retailers were facing higher costs, some of which were being passed on to shoppers.

He said that the cost of a container to ship goods into the UK had risen from about $2,000 (£1,450) a year ago to $18,000.

"The wholesalers are passing those costs onto us," said Mr Brown.

He said that, for example, the cost price of a vacuum cleaner had risen from £49 last year to £79.

"So that cost price has to be passed on, we can't absorb it," Mr Brown said. "We are passing on a proportion of that and having to take a hit on the rest, so it does dilute margins.

"It is a tough time for retail out there and I think what we need more than anything is some sort of calmness in the supply chain."

Some of the world's biggest food producers have also said they have been increasing prices of their products to cope with rising raw material costs, as well as higher energy price and supply chain difficulties.

Unilever, which makes PG Tips, Cornetto, Marmite and Dove skin care, said it had lifted prices and expects that to continue into next year.

The Times reported that Unilever said the cost of palm oil, which the company uses in soap and moisturisers, had risen by 82% over two years because of labour shortages in Indonesia.

 Palm oil prices have increased because of a labour shortage in Indonesia

Poor crop production of soya bean oil in Brazil, which is used in food, has also led to higher prices.

Kraft Heinz, which makes tomato ketchup and baked beans, recently warned that people will have to get used to higher food prices.

And Nestle revealed this week that it too had increased prices, which rose by 2.1% in the third quarter.

The maker of Kit-Kats, Nescafé and Purina pet products said prices had risen on the back of higher energy and raw materials costs, as well as transport.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Councils to Receive Sweeping Planning Powers to Ban New Vape and Betting Shops
Chancellor John Healey Faces Tax and Pension Scrutiny Ahead of Autumn Budget
Metropolitan Police Apologise for Accidental Disclosure in High-Profile Investigation
UK Universities Report Record International Enrolment as Housing Pressure Grows
UK Logistics Firms Monitor Rhine Disruption as Low Water Threatens European Supply Chains
UK Food Industry Warns Inflation Could Approach 7%
UK Introduces Vaping Duty and Mandatory Retail Stamps
Scotland Raises Property Taxes and Expands Child Payment in Annual Budget
Greggs Plans Four Factory Closures With 740 Jobs at Risk
OECD Raises UK 2026 Growth Forecast to 1.1%
UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% as Bank of England Faces Rate Debate
Andy Burnham Criticises Brexit and Says Rejoining EU Single Market Remains an Option
UK Imposes New Sanctions on Russian Military Networks and Propagandists
UK Launches Nationwide Early-Release Prison Scheme
Andy Burnham Says Security Services See Signs of Iranian Involvement in RAF Fairford Incident
Manchester City Found Guilty on Premier League Financial Charges After Independent Investigation
Scottish Court to Rule on Bid to Force No-Confidence Vote Against Aberdeen Council Co-Leader
UK Bans Extra Charges for Seating Children Under 12 Beside Accompanying Adults
UK Introduces Vaping Duty and New Licensing Requirements
Greggs to Close Four UK Factories and Cut 740 Jobs
Hundreds of Prisoners Released Early as England and Wales Prisons Reach 98% Capacity
UK Unveils New Russia Sanctions Targeting War Funding and Shadow Fleet
Burnham Says There Are Strong Indications of Iranian Involvement in RAF Fairford Security Breach
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Raises Prospect of Reviewing Britain's Post-Brexit EU Relationship
Markets Price in Bank of England Rate Increases as Inflation Rises to 3.1%
UK Borrowing Costs Climb Toward 5.5% as Global Bond Sell-Off Intensifies
UK-France One-In-One-Out Migration Agreement Expires as London Seeks Alternative Measures
Southwest England Faces Flood Alerts After Heavy Autumn Storms
UK Expands Funding for Rapid Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure
Welsh Government Approves Funding to Upgrade South Wales Transport
Northern Ireland Tensions Rise as Orange Order Rejects Drumcree Compromise
NHS Leaders Back Early Design of Proposed National Care Service
More Than One-Third of Regional UK Universities Face Financial Deficits
UK Current Account Deficit Narrows as Cross-Border Financial Flows Remain Strong
Bank of England and FCA Issue New Rules for Stablecoins and Digital Assets
MI5 Warns UK Universities Over Research Links With Chinese Institutions
UK Energy Price Cap Rises 4% as Electricity VAT Is Temporarily Suspended
Equity Calls for UK Personality Rights to Protect Performers From AI Replication
OpenAI Pauses Advanced Model Training Following Safety Concerns
Scottish Government Proposes Replacing 32 Councils With Larger Regional Authorities
Ofgem Raises UK Household Energy Price Cap by 4% From October
UK Counter-Terrorism Police Continue Investigation After Five Arrests Near RAF Fairford
OECD Cuts UK 2027 Growth Forecast to 1%
Labour Says State Pension Triple Lock Remains Protected Through Current Parliament
Andy Burnham Pledges National Care Service With Free Social Care in England
Six Flags Permanently Shuts Landmark X2 Roller Coaster Following Safety Scandals
Metropolitan Police Rule Out Terrorism in Golders Green Stabbing Investigation
Lithium-Ion Battery Identified as Cause of Fatal Merseyside House Fire
UK Department Rejects New Sea Use Framework Due to Stakeholder Fatigue
Major Thames Water Pipe Burst Causes School Closures in London
×