London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Aug 02, 2025

If UK inflation feels bad now, the grim news is worse is on the way

If UK inflation feels bad now, the grim news is worse is on the way

Analysis: PPI, the indicator of rises before they reach the consumer, shows higher price rises to come

Are we there yet? Each month the same question is asked about the UK’s inflation rate. Is there any sign of the cost of living crisis abating? And each month the answer is in the negative. The current upward trend has further to go.

May’s increase in the consumer prices index – the government’s preferred measure of inflation – was modest by recent standards but even so the rise from 9% to 9.1% was a new 40-year-high.

More worrying was the evidence provided by the producer price index that there are more price rises to come.

The PPI is a measure of what is happening at an industry level to the costs paid by companies for their fuel and raw materials, and the costs they are charging to their customers. It is an indicator of price pressures before they reach consumers.


Here the message is grim. Fuel and raw material prices were up by more than 22% year on year – the fastest rate since modern records began in 1985. The price of goods leaving factories are increasing at an annual rate of 15.7%, up from 14.7% in April. The Office for National Statistics said that was the steepest rise in 45 years.

Of course, not all of the jump in producer prices will necessarily be passed on to consumers, because retailers may choose to accept lower profit margins rather than risk a loss of business.

That said, the PPI suggests upward pressure on the CPI for some months to come. With a leap of around 40% in the energy price cap forecast to come into force in October, the likelihood is that the annual inflation rate will be nudging 11% later this year.


If there was one crumb of comfort from the latest CPI it was the slight fall in core inflation, a measure of the cost of living that excludes food, fuel, alcoholic drinks and tobacco. This indicator – closely watched by the Bank of England – fell back slightly last month, from 6.2% to 5.9%.

Given that two of the biggest contributors to inflation over the past 12 months have been food and energy that slight decrease is perhaps unsurprising and as far as consumers are concerned the cost of living is going up by 9.1% not 5.9%. Poorer consumers, who spend more of their income on food and fuel, may already be experiencing double-digit inflation.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Threatens Canada with Tariffs Over Palestinian State Recognition
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Trump Sues Murdoch in “Heavyweight Bout”: Lawsuit Over Alleged Epstein Letter Sets Stage for Courtroom Showdown
Germany Enters Fiscal Crisis as Cabinet Approves €174 Billion in New Debt
Trump Administration Finalizes Broad Tariff Increases on Global Trade Partners
J.K. Rowling Limits Public Engagements Citing Safety Fears
JD.com Launches €2.2 Billion Bid for German Electronics Retailer Ceconomy
Azerbaijan Proceeds with Plan to Legalise Casinos on Artificial Islands
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
×