London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 11, 2025

How Worried Should We Be About The New U.K. Coronavirus Variant?

How Worried Should We Be About The New U.K. Coronavirus Variant?

Mathematical modeling suggests that the mutations in this variant make the virus more transmissible. What does that mean for preventive measures — and the new vaccines?

A new variant of the coronavirus is sweeping through England. At the same time, the country is reporting a record-high number of COVID-19 cases – nearly 40,000 on Wednesday — as well as surges in hospitalizations and deaths. In London last week, an estimated 2% of people in private households tested positive for the coronavirus, The Independent reported.

So the big question is: Are these events connected? Is the new variant causing this surge?

Now British scientists are starting to answer that question. And the take-home message is sobering. The new variant, which contains 17 mutations, appears more transmissible and harder to control in terms of spread.

"Given all the biological and epidemiological evidence that has come together in the past few weeks, I think the picture is getting more and more consistent with something pretty serious," says mathematical modeler Nick Davies, who led the study.

Davies is part of a group of scientists in the United Kingdom, called SPI-M, whose job is to use mathematical models to predict how diseases will spread in order to guide policymakers' decisions.

Last week, when health officials announced the rise of this new variant, Davies was skeptical it was responsible for the surge in the U.K.: "Because one possible explanation for a rise in hospitalizations could just be that we've just come out of lockdown in these regions, and maybe people have gone back to more normal movement and contact."

And besides, all viruses mutate. That's normal. The vast majority of time the mutations are harmless. They don't make the virus more dangerous.

But then a few days later, Davies watched a news presentation from South Africa, and his skepticism evaporated. COVID-19 is also surging there. At the same time, scientists there have detected a new variant, which shares surprisingly similarities with the U.K. one. Both versions contain a mutation called N501Y. This mutation has appeared in previous variants and is already known to increase how tightly the virus binds to human cells.

And so Davies went to work. He inserted the data on the new U.K. variant into computer models. He wanted to know why the new variant was spreading so quickly. He tested out four key hypotheses. Could the new variant:

1. Infect people who already had COVID-19?

2. Infect children more easily?

3. Spread more quickly than previous versions?

4. Be more transmissible? (That is, when people catch the new variant, would they be likely to spread it to more people than when they're infected with other versions?)

The mathematical models, published online Wednesday but not yet peer-reviewed, pointed to one of these four hypotheses. "Increased transmissibility is the easiest way for us to explain what we're seeing," Davies says.

Specifically, the study suggests the new variant is about 50% more transmissible than previous versions of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. But the data can't yet rule out the possibility that other factors also contribute to the new variant's domination in England. There's also no evidence the variant causes more severe disease than previous versions.

And scientists don't know why this variant is likely more transmissible. Previous studies, with another variant, suggest the U.K. variant may infect human cells more easily. And it may generate more copies of itself inside a person. "When you swab people who have coronavirus infection, the people who are infected with this new variant tend to have more copies of the virus on the swab," says Davies, who's also part of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

No matter the underlying reason, policymakers should take this new variant very seriously, says epidemiologist Bill Hanage of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. If it's indeed 50% more transmissible, it will be difficult to stop its spread.

"Given the assumptions in their models, it's really quite hard to avoid a situation very much like what happened last spring, in terms of hospital bed capacity and surges, without a very high rate of vaccination," Hanage says.

That said, Hanage says there's no reason for people to panic or be scared. "It's not a magic virus," he says — that's the message virus expert Ian Mackay at the University of Queensland also wrote on Twitter.

"We have actually come across a large number of ways that we can use to stop it. However, we need to redouble our efforts in that direction."

The variant will likely come to the U.S. — if isn't here already. The study strongly suggests that people should be even more diligent about preventive measures: avoiding large gatherings. wearing masks, physical distancing and washing hands. On top of that, Hanage says, "the vaccine needs to be getting out at a very, very high rate."

Because right now, scientists believe the vaccine will still be effective with this new variant. And Hanage says the quicker we immunize the vulnerable members of a community the safer the whole community will be from the original and future versions of the novel coronavirus.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
The British legal mafia hit back: Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
Surpassing Musk: Larry Ellison becomes the richest man in the world
Embarrassment for Starmer: He fired the ambassador photographed on Epstein’s 'pedophile island'
Manhunt after 'skilled sniper' shot Charlie Kirk. Footage: Suspect running on rooftop during panic
Effective Protest Results: Nepal’s Prime Minister Resigns as Youth-Led Unrest Shakes the Nation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
King Charles and Prince Harry Share First In-Person Moment in 19 Months
Starmer Establishes Economic ‘Budget Board’ to Centralise Policy and Rebuild Business Trust
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Brazilian police say ex-President Bolsonaro had planned to flee to Argentina seeking asylum
Trinidad Leader Applauds U.S. Naval Strike and Advocates Forceful Action Against Traffickers
Kim Jong Un Oversees Final Test of New High-Thrust Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to pause billions in foreign aid
Charlie Sheen says his father, Martin Sheen, turned him in to the police: 'The greatest betrayal possible'
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
Pig Heads Left Outside Multiple Paris Mosques in Outrage-Inducing Acts
Nvidia’s ‘Wow’ Factor Is Fading. The AI chip giant used to beat Wall Street expectations for earnings by a substantial margin. That trajectory is coming down to earth.
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
On the Anniversary of Queen Elizabeth’s Death: Prince Harry Returns to Britain
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Murdoch Family Finalises $3.3 Billion Succession Pact, Ensuring Eldest Son’s Leadership
Big Oil Slashes Jobs and Investments Amid Prolonged Low Crude Prices
Court Staff Cover Up Banksy Image of Judge Beating a Protester
Social Media Access Curtailed in Turkey After CHP Calls for Rallies Following Police Blockade of Istanbul Headquarters
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
Elon Musk Poised to Become First Trillionaire Under Ambitious Tesla Pay Plan
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
Burning the Minister’s House Helped Protesters to Win Justice: Prabowo Fires Finance Minister in Wake of Indonesia Protests
Brazil Braces for Fallout from Bolsonaro Trial by corrupted judge
The Country That Got Too Rich? Public Spending Dominates Norway Election
Nearly 40 Years Later: Nike Changes the Legendary Slogan Just Do It
Generations Born After 1939 Unlikely to Reach Age One Hundred, New Study Finds
End to a four-year manhunt in New Zealand: the father who abducted his children to the forests was killed, the three siblings were found
Germany Suspends Debt Rules, Funnels €500 Billion Toward Military and Proxy War Strategy
EU Prepares for War
BMW Eyes Growth in China with New All‑Electric Neue Klasse Lineup
Trump Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs After EU Imposes €2.95 Billion Fine on Google
Tesla Board Proposes Unprecedented One-Trillion-Dollar Performance Package for Elon Musk
US Justice Department Launches Criminal Mortgage-Fraud Probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
Escalating Drug Trafficking and Violence in Latin America: A Growing Crisis
US and Taiwanese Defence Officials Held Secret Talks in Alaska
Report: Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission in North Korea Ordered by Trump in 2019 Ended in Failure
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Florida Murder Case: The Adelson Family, the Killing of Dan Markel, and the Trial of Donna Adelson
Trump Administration Advances Plans to Rebrand Pentagon as Department of War Instead of the Fake Term Department of Defense
×