London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

Global Eradication Of COVID-19 More Feasible Than For Polio: Study

Global Eradication Of COVID-19 More Feasible Than For Polio: Study

COVID-19 Study: The authors estimated the feasibility of COVID-19 eradication, defined as ''the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts''.

The global eradication of COVID-19 is more feasible than it is for polio, but considerably less so than it was for smallpox, according to an analysis published in the journal BMJ Global Health on Tuesday.

Public health experts from the University of Otago Wellington in New Zealand noted that vaccination, public health measures, and global interest in achieving this goal all make eradication of COVID-19 possible.

However, they said, the main challenges lie in securing sufficiently high vaccine coverage and respond quickly enough to immune-escape variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

The authors estimated the feasibility of COVID-19 eradication, defined as ''the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts''.

They compared it with two other viral scourges for which vaccines were or are available -- smallpox and polio -- using an array of technical, sociopolitical, and economic factors that are likely to help achieve this goal.

The authors used a three point scoring system for each of 17 variables such as the availability of a safe and effective vaccine, lifelong immunity, impact of public health measures, and effective government management of infection control messaging among others.

The average scores in the analysis added up to 2.7 for smallpox, 1.6 for COVID-19, and 1.5 for polio, they said.

Smallpox was declared eradicated in 1980 and two out of the three serotypes of poliovirus have also been eradicated globally.

"While our analysis is a preliminary effort, with various subjective components, it does seem to put COVID-19 eradicability into the realms of being possible, especially in terms of technical feasibility," the authors wrote in the study.

They acknowledge that relative to smallpox and polio, the technical challenges of COVID-19 eradication include poor vaccine acceptance, and the emergence of more highly transmissible variants that may evade immunity, potentially outrunning global vaccination programmes.

"Nevertheless, there are of course limits to viral evolution, so we can expect the virus to eventually reach peak fitness, and new vaccines can be formulated," the authors explained.

"Other challenges would be the high upfront costs for vaccination and upgrading health systems, and achieving the necessary international cooperation in the face of ''vaccine nationalism'' and government-mediated ''antiscience aggression''," they added.

The researchers also suggest that the persistence of the virus in animal reservoirs may also thwart eradication efforts, adding, however, this does not appear to be a serious issue.

They noted, on the other hand, there is a global will to tackle the infection.

The massive scale of the health, social and economic impacts of COVID-19 in most of the world has generated "unprecedented global interest in disease control and massive investment in vaccination against the pandemic," the authors said.

Unlike smallpox and polio, they said, COVID-19 also benefits from the added impact of public health measures, such as border controls, social distancing, contact tracing and mask wearing, which can be very effective if deployed well.
"Collectively these factors might mean that an ''expected value'' analysis could ultimately estimate that the benefits outweigh the costs, even if eradication takes many years and has a significant risk of failure," the authors added.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
US Imposes New Tariffs on Brazilian Exports Amid Political Tensions
Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of a historic peace deal.
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
U.S. Enacts Sweeping Tax and Spending Legislation Amid Trade Policy Shifts
Football Mourns as Diogo Jota and Brother André Silva Laid to Rest in Portugal
Labour Expected to Withdraw Support for Special Needs Funding Model
Leaked Audio Reveals Tory Aide Defending DEI Record
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
London Stock Exchange Faces Historic Low in Initial Public Offerings
A new online platform has emerged in the United Kingdom, specifically targeting Muslim men seeking virgin brides
Trump Celebrates Independence Day with B-2 Flyover and Signs Controversial Legislation
Boris Johnson Urges Conservatives to Ignore Farage
SNP Ordered to Update Single-Sex Space Guidance Within Days
Starmer Set to Reject Calls for Wealth Taxes
Stolen Century-Old Rolls-Royce Recovered After Hotel Theft
Macron Presses Starmer to Recognise Palestinian State
Labour Delayed Palestine Action Ban Over Riot Concerns
Swinney’s Tax Comments ‘Offensive to Scots’, Say Tories
High Street Retailers to Enforce Bans on Serial Shoplifters
Music Banned by Henry VIII to Be Performed After 500 Years
Steve Coogan Says Working Class Is Being ‘Ethnically Cleansed’
Home Office Admits Uncertainty Over Visa Overstayer Numbers
JD Vance Questions Mandelson Over Reform Party’s Rising Popularity
Macron to Receive Windsor Carriage Ride in Royal Gesture
Labour Accused of ‘Hammering’ Scots During First Year in Power
BBC Head of Music Stood Down Amid Bob Vylan Controversy
Corbyn Eyes Hard-Left Challenge to Starmer’s Leadership
London Tube Trains Suspended After Major Fire Erupts Nearby
Richard Kemp: I Felt Safer in Israel Under Attack Than in the UK
Cyclist Says Police Cited Human Rights Act for Riding No-Handed
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Musk Battles to Protect Tesla Amid Trump Policy Threats
Air France-KLM Acquires Majority Stake in Scandinavian Airlines
UK Educators Sound Alarm on Declining Child Literacy
Shein Fined €40 Million in France Over Misleading Discounts
Brazil’s Lula Visits Kirchner During Argentina House Arrest
Trump Scores Legislative Win as House Passes Tax Reform Bill
Keir Starmer Faces Criticism After Rocky First Year in Power
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History Announced by DOJ
×