London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025

Further Covid lockdowns in UK are now unlikely, says Neil Ferguson

Further Covid lockdowns in UK are now unlikely, says Neil Ferguson

Epidemiologist who helped shape initial strategy warns prediction could change if virus ‘changes substantially’

Prof Neil Ferguson, the epidemiologist whose initial modelling helped shape Britain’s coronavirus response, has said future lockdowns are unlikely to be needed to control the spread of the disease in the UK.

However, the government scientific adviser warned that Covid case numbers could rise again and his prediction could change if the virus “changes substantially”.

In an interview with the Times, Ferguson said it was still likely that there would be higher numbers of deaths each year than before as the world learns to live with the virus, much as deaths are caused by the flu each winter.

Ferguson, who stepped back from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) in May last year after a visit from his girlfriend that broke social distancing rules, but who remains on other government advisory committees, said it was “unlikely we will need a new lockdown or even social distancing measures of the type we’ve had so far”.

He said that, with a rise in social contact, Britain could “reach another point where we start seeing increasing case numbers again”, though at least vaccines had “changed the relationship between cases and hospitalisation”.

He also expressed sympathy for Matt Hancock after the disclosure of the former health secretary’s affair, which broke social distancing rules, rather than calling him a hypocrite for his criticism when Ferguson’s own private life made the headlines.

Overall, he said the UK, like elsewhere, would probably have to accept the continuing presence of Covid-19 as a potentially lethal threat.

“I suspect for several years, we will see additional mortality,” he said. “There’s a risk in the winter coming of thousands to tens of thousands more deaths.”

The epidemiologist said that if Boris Johnson had ordered the first lockdown a week earlier than he did in March last year, Britain’s first wave would have been been reduced by half and “maybe … by three-quarters”, saving more than 25,000 lives.


He said he understood the prime minister’s reluctance to shut down the economy at that point, amid uncertain modelling of the disease. However, he was less forgiving of the delay in locking down in the autumn, noting that about two-thirds of deaths in the UK from Covid have happened since 1 November.

The Imperial College immunologist said: “The idea that there was a trade-off between public health and the economy took hold in some elements of the political establishment,” but countries that had implemented measures earlier in the autumn had been able to lift them sooner.

Hancock had said he was “speechless” when news of Ferguson’s girlfriend’s visit broke – criticism that the scientist found “unnecessary” because he had already stepped down from Sage.

When closed-circuit TV footage was leaked of Hancock transgressing social distancing rules in an intimate embrace with a senior aide, Gina Coladangelo, Ferguson said he did not join in allegations of hypocrisy towards the politician.

“Actually, no, I didn’t. I felt very sorry for everybody involved. Being in the centre of that sort of media storm is horrific, even if there is reason for it,” he told the newspaper.

He added that while Hancock had lost his job, his own day-to-day life “didn’t actually change very much” after his scandal, which he admitted was a mistake.

“I just don’t think I was thinking,” he said. “I was working 18 hours a day and it hadn’t properly dawned on me that I was a public figure in that way.”

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Dimon Warns on Fed Independence as Trump Administration Eyes Powell’s Succession
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Jeff Bezos Considers Purchasing Condé Nast as a Wedding Gift
Ghislaine Maxwell Says She’s Ready to Testify Before Congress on Epstein’s Criminal Empire
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Google Secures Windsurf AI Coding Team in $2.4 Billion Licence Deal
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
South African Police Minister Suspended Amid Organised Crime Allegations
Nvidia CEO Claims Chinese Military Reluctance to Use US AI Technology
Hong Kong Advances Digital Asset Strategy to Address Economic Challenges
Australia Rules Out Pre‑commitment of Troops, Reinforces Defence Posture Amid US‑China Tensions
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
U.S. Resumes Deportations to Third Countries After Supreme Court Ruling
Excavation Begins at Site of Mass Grave for Children at Former Irish Institution
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid New U.S. Threats on Imports
Trump Defends Attorney General Pam Bondi Amid Epstein Memo Backlash
Renault Shares Drop as CEO Luca de Meo Announces Departure Amid Reports of Move to Kering
Senior Aides for King Charles and Prince Harry Hold Secret Peace Summit
Anti‑Semitism ‘Normalised’ in Middle‑Class Britain, Says Commission Co‑Chair
King Charles Meets David Beckham at Chelsea Flower Show
If the Department is Really About Justice: Ghislaine Maxwell Should Be Freed Now
NYC Candidate Zohran Mamdani’s ‘Antifada’ Remarks Spark National Debate on Political Language and Economic Policy
President Trump Visits Flood-Ravaged Texas, Praises Community Strength and First Responders
From Mystery to Meltdown, Crisis Within the Trump Administration: Epstein Files Ignite A Deepening Rift at the Highest Levels of Government Reveals Chaos, Leaks, and Growing MAGA Backlash
Trump Slams Putin Over War Death Toll, Teases Major Russia Announcement
Reparations argument crushed
Rainmaker CEO Says Cloud Seeding Paused Before Deadly Texas Floods
A 92-year-old woman, who felt she doesn't belong in a nursing home, escaped the death-camp by climbing a gate nearly 8 ft tall
French Journalist Acquitted in Controversial Case Involving Brigitte Macron
Elon Musk’s xAI Targets $200 Billion Valuation in New Fundraising Round
Kraft Heinz Considers Splitting Off Grocery Division Amid Strategic Review
Trump Proposes Supplying Arms to Ukraine Through NATO Allies
EU Proposes New Tax on Large Companies to Boost Budget
Trump Imposes 35% Tariffs on Canadian Imports Amid Trade Tensions
Junior Doctors in the UK Prepare for Five-Day Strike Over Pay Disputes
US Opens First Rare Earth Mine in Over 70 Years in Wyoming
Kurdistan Workers Party Takes Symbolic Step Towards Peace in Northern Iraq
Bitcoin Reaches New Milestone of $116,000
Biden’s Doctor Pleads the Fifth to Avoid Self-Incrimination on President’s Medical Fitness
Grok Chatbot Faces International Backlash for Antisemitic Content
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
×