London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025

Further Covid lockdowns in UK are now unlikely, says Neil Ferguson

Further Covid lockdowns in UK are now unlikely, says Neil Ferguson

Epidemiologist who helped shape initial strategy warns prediction could change if virus ‘changes substantially’

Prof Neil Ferguson, the epidemiologist whose initial modelling helped shape Britain’s coronavirus response, has said future lockdowns are unlikely to be needed to control the spread of the disease in the UK.

However, the government scientific adviser warned that Covid case numbers could rise again and his prediction could change if the virus “changes substantially”.

In an interview with the Times, Ferguson said it was still likely that there would be higher numbers of deaths each year than before as the world learns to live with the virus, much as deaths are caused by the flu each winter.

Ferguson, who stepped back from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) in May last year after a visit from his girlfriend that broke social distancing rules, but who remains on other government advisory committees, said it was “unlikely we will need a new lockdown or even social distancing measures of the type we’ve had so far”.

He said that, with a rise in social contact, Britain could “reach another point where we start seeing increasing case numbers again”, though at least vaccines had “changed the relationship between cases and hospitalisation”.

He also expressed sympathy for Matt Hancock after the disclosure of the former health secretary’s affair, which broke social distancing rules, rather than calling him a hypocrite for his criticism when Ferguson’s own private life made the headlines.

Overall, he said the UK, like elsewhere, would probably have to accept the continuing presence of Covid-19 as a potentially lethal threat.

“I suspect for several years, we will see additional mortality,” he said. “There’s a risk in the winter coming of thousands to tens of thousands more deaths.”

The epidemiologist said that if Boris Johnson had ordered the first lockdown a week earlier than he did in March last year, Britain’s first wave would have been been reduced by half and “maybe … by three-quarters”, saving more than 25,000 lives.


He said he understood the prime minister’s reluctance to shut down the economy at that point, amid uncertain modelling of the disease. However, he was less forgiving of the delay in locking down in the autumn, noting that about two-thirds of deaths in the UK from Covid have happened since 1 November.

The Imperial College immunologist said: “The idea that there was a trade-off between public health and the economy took hold in some elements of the political establishment,” but countries that had implemented measures earlier in the autumn had been able to lift them sooner.

Hancock had said he was “speechless” when news of Ferguson’s girlfriend’s visit broke – criticism that the scientist found “unnecessary” because he had already stepped down from Sage.

When closed-circuit TV footage was leaked of Hancock transgressing social distancing rules in an intimate embrace with a senior aide, Gina Coladangelo, Ferguson said he did not join in allegations of hypocrisy towards the politician.

“Actually, no, I didn’t. I felt very sorry for everybody involved. Being in the centre of that sort of media storm is horrific, even if there is reason for it,” he told the newspaper.

He added that while Hancock had lost his job, his own day-to-day life “didn’t actually change very much” after his scandal, which he admitted was a mistake.

“I just don’t think I was thinking,” he said. “I was working 18 hours a day and it hadn’t properly dawned on me that I was a public figure in that way.”

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
US Tech Giants Pledge Billions to UK AI Infrastructure Following Starmer's Call
Saudi Arabia cracks down on music ‘lounges’ after conservative backlash
DeepMind and OpenAI Achieve Gold at ‘Coding Olympics’ in AI Milestone
SEC Allows Public Companies to Block Investors from Class-Action Lawsuits
Saudi Arabia Signs ‘Strategic Mutual Defence’ Pact with Pakistan, Marking First Arab State to Gain Indirect Access to Nuclear Strike Capabilities in the Region
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by Quarter Point and Signals More to Come
Effective and Impressive Generation Z Protest: Images from the Riots in Nepal
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Sam Altman sells the 'Wedding Estate' in Hawaii for 49 million dollars
Trump: Cancel quarterly company reports and settle for reporting once every six months
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
US Launches New Pilot Program to Accelerate eVTOL Air Taxi Deployment
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
Hong Kong Industry Group Calls for HK$20 Billion Support Fund to Ease Property Market Stress
Joe Biden’s Post-Presidency Speaking Fees Face Weak Demand amid Corporate Reluctance
Charlie Kirk's murder will break the left's hateful cancel tactics
Kash Patel erupts at ‘buffoon’ Sen. Adam Schiff over Russiagate: ‘You are the biggest fraud’
Homeland Security says Emmy speech ‘fanning the flames of hatred’ after Einbinder’s ‘F— ICE’ remark
Charlie Kirk’s Alleged Assassin Tyler Robinson Faces Death Penalty as Charges Formally Announced
Actor, director, environmentalist Robert Redford dies at 89
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
JD Vance Says There Is “No Unity” with Those Who Celebrate Charlie Kirk’s Killing, and he is right!
Trump sues the 'New York Times' for an astronomical sum of 15 billion dollars
Florida Hospital Welcomes Its Largest-Ever Baby: Annan, Nearly Fourteen Pounds at Birth
U.S. and Britain Poised to Finalize Over $10 Billion in High-Tech, Nuclear and Defense Deals During Trump State Visit
China Finds Nvidia Violated Antitrust Laws in Mellanox Deal, Deepens Trade Tensions with US
US Air Force Begins Modifications on Qatar-Donated Jet Amid Plans to Use It as Air Force One
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
Elon Musk Retakes Lead as World’s Richest After Brief Ellison Surge
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
London Daily Podcast: London Massive Pro Democracy Rally, Musk Support, UK Economic Data and Premier League Results Mark Eventful Weekend
This Week in AI: Meta’s Superintelligence Push, xAI’s Ten Billion-Dollar Raise, Genesis AI’s Robotics Ambitions, Microsoft Restructuring, Amazon’s Million-Robot Milestone, and Google’s AlphaGenome Update
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Musk calls for new UK government at huge pro-democracy rally in London, but Britons have been brainwashed to obey instead of fighting for their human rights
Elon Musk responds to post calling for the murder of Erika Kirk, widow of Charlie Kirk: 'Either we fight back or they will kill us'
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
USA: Office Depot Employees Refused to Print Poster in Memory of Charlie Kirk – and Were Fired
Proposed U.S. Bill Would Allow Civil Suits Against Judges Who Release Repeat Violent Offenders
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
French Debt Downgrade Piles Pressure on Macron’s New Prime Minister
US and UK Near Tech, Nuclear and Whisky Deals Ahead of Trump Trip
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
Anesthesiologist Left Operation Mid-Surgery to Have Sex with Nurse
Tens of Thousands of Young Chinese Get Up Every Morning and Go to Work Where They Do Nothing
×