London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Aug 25, 2025

Experts predicted the UK variant would become dominant in the US by March. So, is it?

Experts predicted the UK variant would become dominant in the US by March. So, is it?

Mounting evidence suggests the more contagious coronavirus variant first identified in the UK, which experts believe is partly driving an uptick of cases in places like Michigan, may already be dominant across the US.

"I think we are there," said William Lee, vice president of science at Helix, a company whose tests have identified a large share of variant cases across the country. "But at the end of the day, it's hard to say for sure," given gaps and delays in the data.

Lee is one of the authors of a study published Tuesday in the journal Cell estimating that the variant, known as B.1.1.7, would cause the majority of Covid-19 cases in the US by March 19.

According to that study, B.1.1.7 cases are expected to double every week and a half as a percentage of the country's total coronavirus cases. The study also concluded the variant was introduced several different times to the US, as early as late November. The study's conclusions were based on testing data through February.

Lee said that there's strong evidence the variant is already responsible for a majority of cases in states like Florida, Michigan and Georgia -- with a number of others close on their heels, including Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Texas and Southern California. However, Helix's data do not include robust samples from a number of other states, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions.

Notably, the study's estimates of when B.1.1.7 would become dominant in certain individual states skewed earlier than what ultimately happened, based on CNN's review of later data from Helix that wasn't included in the study. Lee said the rapid rollout of vaccinations may have contributed to this, though it wasn't accounted for in the study.

'Starting to become the predominant variant'


While officials with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention won't yet say whether the variant is dominant, its own scientists previously predicted this would be the case by now.

In January, a CDC study predicted that the variant would exhibit "rapid growth in early 2021, becoming the predominant variant in March." At the time, the variant was assumed to account for less than 0.5% of cases.

In mid-March, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said at a briefing, "Our current models still project, by the end of March, early April, B.1.1.7 will be the dominant variant."

"B.1.1.7, we know from our most recent data, is about 26% of circulating virus right now," Walensky said at another briefing Wednesday. This appears to be based on preliminary data of samples collected in the two weeks leading up to March 13, according to CDC's website. "It is starting to become the predominant variant in many US regions," she added.

That would mean nearly two doubling periods may have passed since then, which could put that number well over 50%. However, it is unclear to what extent these numbers might be influenced by the fact that B.1.1.7 is easier to find than other variants, because of a glitch that shows up on certain PCR tests for Covid-19.

A CDC spokesperson told CNN Wednesday that "national prevalence estimates are inherently delayed by a few weeks." While the present-day picture of the variant is "unclear," they said the agency expects to share its projections "in the near future," based on mathematical modeling that's currently underway.

Nearly 12,000 cases of the variant have been identified in 49 states, Puerto Rico and Washington, DC, per CDC. The agency says this does not represent the total number of such cases circulating in the US, but rather just those that have been found by analyzing positive samples.

Florida and Michigan lead the country in these raw numbers. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer told CNN Wednesday that one of the reasons for the state's surge is that "we've got a high proportion of variants, and that means coronavirus spreads faster."

Overall, a majority of states are seeing cases rise from week to week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Cases in Michigan are up more than 50%, and cases in Florida are up 12%.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Vietnam Evacuates Hundreds of Thousands as Typhoon Kajiki Strikes; China’s Sanya Shuts Down
UK Government Delays Decision on China’s Proposed London Embassy Amid Concerns Over Redacted Plans
A 150-Year Tradition to Be Abolished? Uproar Over the Popular Central Park Attraction
A new faith called Robotheism claims artificial intelligence isn’t just smart but actually God itself
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner Purchases Third Property Amid Housing Tax Reforms Debate
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Italian Facebook Group Sharing Intimate Images Without Consent Shut Down Amid Police Investigation
Dutch Foreign Minister Resigns Amid Deadlock Over Israel Sanctions
Trump and Allies Send Messages of Support to Ukraine on Independence Day Amid Ongoing Conflict
China Reels as Telegram Chat Group Shares Hidden-Camera Footage of Women and Children
Sam Nicoresti becomes first transgender comedian to win Edinburgh Comedy Award
Builders uncover historic human remains in Lancashire house renovation
Australia Wants to Tax Your Empty Bedrooms
MotoGP Cameraman Narrowly Avoids Pedro Acosta Crash at Hungarian Grand Prix
FBI Investigates John Bolton Over Classified Documents in High-Profile Raids
Report reveals OpenAI pitched national ChatGPT Plus subscription to UK ministers
Labour set to freeze income tax thresholds in long-term 'stealth' tax raid
Coca‑Cola explores sale of Costa coffee chain
Trial hears dog walker was chased and fatally stabbed by trio
Restaurateur resigns from government hospitality council over tax criticism
Spanish City funfair shut after serious ride injury
Suspected arson at Ilford restaurant leaves three in critical condition
Tottenham beat Manchester City to go top of Premier League
Bank holiday heatwave to hit 30°C before remnants of Hurricane Erin arrive
UK to deploy immigration advisers to West Africa to block fake visas
Nurse who raped woman continued working for a year despite police alert
Drought forces closures of England’s canal routes, canceling boat holidays
Sweet tooth scents: food-inspired perfumes surge as weight-loss drugs suppress appetites
Experts warn Britain dangerously reliant on imported food
Family of Notting Hill Carnival murder victim call event unmanageable
Bunkers, Billions and Apocalypse: The Secret Compounds of Zuckerberg and the Tech Giants
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
New York Appeals Court Voids Nearly $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Against Trump While Upholding Fraud Liability
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
Child-free hotels spark controversy
North Korea is where this 95-year-old wants to die. South Korea won’t let him go. Is this our ally or a human rights enemy?
Hong Kong Launches Regulatory Regime and Trials for HKD-Backed Stablecoins
China rehearses September 3 Victory Day parade as imagery points to ‘loyal wingman’ FH-97 family presence
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
MSNBC Rebrands as MS NOW Amid Comcast’s Cable Spin-Off
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
×