London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025

Europe on edge as Nord Stream Russian gas link set for planned shut-down

Europe on edge as Nord Stream Russian gas link set for planned shut-down

The biggest single pipeline carrying Russian gas to Germany starts annual maintenance on Monday, with flows expected to stop for ten days, but governments, markets and companies are worried the shut-down might be extended due to war in Ukraine.

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline transports 55 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year of gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. It will undergo maintenance from July 11 to 21.

Last month, Russia cut flows to 40% of the pipeline's total capacity, citing the delayed return of equipment being serviced by Germany's Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE), in Canada. Canada said at the weekend it would return a repaired turbine, but it also said it would expand sanctions against Russia's energy sector.

Europe fears Russia may extend the scheduled maintenance to restrict European gas supply further, throwing plans to fill storage for winter into disarray and heightening a gas crisis that has prompted emergency measures from governments and painfully high bills for consumers.

German economy minister Robert Habeck has said the country should confront the possibility that Russia will suspend gas flows through Nord Stream 1 beyond the scheduled maintenance period.

"Based on the pattern we've seen, it would not be very surprising now if some small, technical detail is found and then they could say 'now we can't turn it on any more'," he said at an event at the end of June.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed claims that Russia was using oil and gas to exert political pressure, saying the maintenance shutdown was a regular, scheduled event, and that no one was "inventing" any repairs.

There are other big pipelines from Russia to Europe but flows have been gradually declining, especially after Ukraine halted one gas transit route in May, blaming interference by occupying Russian forces.

Russia has cut off gas supplies completely to several European countries that did not comply with its demand for payment in roubles.

"The last few months have shown one thing: Putin knows no taboos. A complete halt to gas supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline cannot therefore be ruled out," Timm Kehler, managing director of German industry association Zukunft Gas, said.

TURBINE TROUBLE


Germany at the weekend welcomed Canada's decision to issue a "time-limited and revocable permit" to allow equipment to be returned for the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

But Ukraine's energy and foreign ministries said in a statement they were "deeply disappointed" and urged Canada to reverse a decision they said amounted to adjusting the sanctions imposed on Moscow "to the whims of Russia".

Siemens Energy said it was working on further formal approvals and logistics to get the equipment in place as soon as possible.

Zongqiang Luo, gas analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy, said it was "not impossible" Gazprom could use any delay as a justification to extend the maintenance period.

In previous years, the annual maintenance period on Nord Stream 1 has lasted around 10-12 days and has finished on time.

It is not uncommon for additional faults to be detected during routine maintenance at pipelines or gas infrastructure and operators can prolong outages if necessary.

While a complete halt of gas is considered unlikely, Gazprom has not been re-routing flows via other pipelines, meaning a prolonged reduced flow rate is probable, analysts at Goldman Sachs said.

MULTI-BILLION ECONOMIC BLOW


Germany has moved to stage two of a three-tier emergency gas plan, which is one step before the government rations fuel consumption.

It has also warned of recession if Russian gas flows are halted. The blow to the economy could be 193 billion euros ($195 billion) in the second half of this year, data from the vbw industry association of the state of Bavaria showed last month.

"The abrupt end of Russian gas imports would also have a significant impact on the workforce in Germany...around 5.6 million jobs would be affected by the consequences," vwb's managing director Bertram Brossardt said.

The effects would be wider still. A complete halt would keep European gas prices, which have already stung industry and households, higher for longer.

Wholesale Dutch gas prices, the European benchmark, have risen more than 400% since last July.

"If Nord Stream gets cut off, or if Germany loses all its Russian imports, then the effect will be felt on the whole of north-western Europe," Dutch energy minister Rob Jetten said.

In an interview with Reuters on Thursday, he said the Dutch Groningen gas field could still be called upon the help neighbouring countries in the event of a complete cut off in Russian supplies, but ramping up production would risk causing earthquakes. read more

Meanwhile, a halt of supply through Nord Stream 1 would hurt Russia as well as western Europe because it would lose revenues.

Russia's finance ministry said it in June expected to receive 393 billion roubles ($6.4 billion) in extra oil and gas revenues compared with the amount expected in its budget planning.

For July, it expects 259 billion roubles above its budget plan.

Extended maintenance could also result in more Russian gas production shut-ins, relative to the 9% year-to-date year-on-year decline in Gazprom production reported so far, Goldman Sachs said.

($1 = 0.9898 euros)

($1 = 61.5000 roubles)

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
Dutch Government Seizes Chipmaker After U.S. Presses for Removal of Chinese CEO
Bessent Accuses China of Dragging Down Global Economy Amid New Trade Curbs
U.S. Revokes Visas of Foreign Nationals Who ‘Celebrated’ Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
AI and Cybersecurity at Forefront as GITEX Global 2025 Kicks Off in Dubai
DJI Loses Appeal to Remove Pentagon’s ‘Chinese Military Company’ Label
EU Deploys New Biometric Entry/Exit System: What Non-EU Travelers Must Know
Australian Prime Minister’s Private Number Exposed Through AI Contact Scraper
Ex-Microsoft Engineer Confirms Famous Windows XP Key Was Leaked Corporate License, Not a Hack
China’s lesson for the US: it takes more than chips to win the AI race
Australia Faces Demographic Risk as Fertility Falls to Record Low
California County Reinstates Mask Mandate in Health Facilities as Respiratory Illness Risk Rises
Israel and Hamas Agree to First Phase of Trump-Brokered Gaza Truce, Hostages to Be Freed
French Political Turmoil Elevates Marine Le Pen as Rassemblement National Poised for Power
China Unveils Sweeping Rare Earth Export Controls to Shield ‘National Security’
The Davos Set in Decline: Why the World Economic Forum’s Power Must Be Challenged
France: Less Than a Month After His Appointment, the New French Prime Minister Resigns
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Hungary will not adopt the euro because the European Union is falling apart.
Sarah Mullally Becomes First Woman Appointed Archbishop of Canterbury
Mayor in western Germany in intensive care after stabbing
Australian government pays Deloitte nearly half a million dollars for a report built on fabricated quotes, fake citations, and AI-generated nonsense.
US Prosecutors Gained Legal Approval to Hack Telegram Servers
Macron Faces Intensifying Pressure to Resign or Trigger New Elections Amid France’s Political Turmoil
Standard Chartered Names Roberto Hoornweg as Sole Head of Corporate & Investment Banking
UK Asylum Housing Firm Faces Backlash Over £187 Million Profits and Poor Living Conditions
UK Police Crack Major Gang in Smuggling of up to 40,000 Stolen Phones to China
BYD’s UK Sales Soar Nearly Nine-Fold, Making Britain Its Biggest Market Outside China
Trump Proposes Farm Bailout from Tariff Revenues Amid Backlash from Other Industries
FIFA Accuses Malaysia of Forging Citizenship Documents, Suspends Seven Footballers
Latvia to Bar Tourist and Occasional Buses to Russia and Belarus Until 2026
A Dollar Coin Featuring Trump’s Portrait Expected to Be Issued Next Year
Australia Orders X to Block Murder Videos, Citing Online Safety and Public Exposure
Three Scientists Awarded Nobel Prize in Medicine for Discovery of Immune Self-Tolerance Mechanism
×