London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025

EU economy projected to avoid recession

EU economy projected to avoid recession

The more positive outlook is down to a reduced reliance on gas, as the bloc's 27 countries sought to wean themselves off Russian supplies following the invasion of Ukraine last year.
A more positive picture of the EU economy has been predicted: it is to avoid recession with lower inflation and higher growth than had been forecast.

The bloc will now avoid a technical recession, the EU said in its winter economic forecast, which is when the economy goes through a six-month period of economic contraction.

Recession had been forecast in the EU's last economic forecast in November, but instead the annual growth rate for 2022 is estimated to be 3.5%.

Growth will continue throughout this year, the latest forecast says. The economy across the 27 countries will grow 0.8% in 2023, the union now expects - up from the 0.3% predicted in the autumn economic forecast.

The growth rate for 2024 remains unchanged at 1.6%.

Similarly, inflation has reached its peak and also been revised downwards for both this year and next, and unemployment remains at an all-time low at 6.1%

The rate of price increases dropped from 11.1% in November to 10.4% in December last year, but it's still up from 5.3% a year before.

The decline was mostly driven by the slowing rate of energy price increases. Next year, inflation is forecast to fall to 6.4% in 2023 and to 2.8% in 2024, meaning higher prices will remain.

The more positive outlook is down to a reduced reliance on gas combined with lower gas prices, despite energy costs overall remaining high. More power was sourced from elsewhere and gas consumption dropped, which along with cheaper wholesale gas prices has helped growth.

'This doesn't mean a positive overall outlook'

But Paolo Gentiloni, the European commissioner for the economy, warned that times were still tough, with inflation only releasing "its grip on purchasing power" in a gradual way.

While the outlook is "less negative than we expected", Mr Gentiloni said, "this doesn't mean we have a positive overall outlook".

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, EU countries rushed to reduce their dependency on the gas bought mostly from Moscow. This involved reducing power consumption by measures such as not lighting certain buildings at night and not heating gas-powered private swimming pools.

Member states had agreed a voluntary plan to reduce gas consumption by 15%.

Gas prices skyrocketed following the invasion and reached a high in August as Vladimir Putin threatened to cut supplies, before he actually did so at the end of the month.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
France: Less Than a Month After His Appointment, the New French Prime Minister Resigns
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Hungary will not adopt the euro because the European Union is falling apart.
Sarah Mullally Becomes First Woman Appointed Archbishop of Canterbury
Mayor in western Germany in intensive care after stabbing
Australian government pays Deloitte nearly half a million dollars for a report built on fabricated quotes, fake citations, and AI-generated nonsense.
US Prosecutors Gained Legal Approval to Hack Telegram Servers
Macron Faces Intensifying Pressure to Resign or Trigger New Elections Amid France’s Political Turmoil
Standard Chartered Names Roberto Hoornweg as Sole Head of Corporate & Investment Banking
UK Asylum Housing Firm Faces Backlash Over £187 Million Profits and Poor Living Conditions
UK Police Crack Major Gang in Smuggling of up to 40,000 Stolen Phones to China
BYD’s UK Sales Soar Nearly Nine-Fold, Making Britain Its Biggest Market Outside China
Trump Proposes Farm Bailout from Tariff Revenues Amid Backlash from Other Industries
FIFA Accuses Malaysia of Forging Citizenship Documents, Suspends Seven Footballers
Latvia to Bar Tourist and Occasional Buses to Russia and Belarus Until 2026
A Dollar Coin Featuring Trump’s Portrait Expected to Be Issued Next Year
Australia Orders X to Block Murder Videos, Citing Online Safety and Public Exposure
Three Scientists Awarded Nobel Prize in Medicine for Discovery of Immune Self-Tolerance Mechanism
OpenAI and AMD Forge Landmark AI-Chip Alliance with Equity Option
Munich Airport Reopens After Second Drone Shutdown
France Names New Government Amid Political Crisis
Trump Stands Firm in Shutdown Showdown and Declares War on Drug Cartels — Turning Crisis into Opportunity
Surge of U.S. Billionaires Transforms London’s Peninsula Apartments into Ultra-Luxury Stronghold
Pro Europe and Anti-War Babiš Poised to Return to Power After Czech Parliamentary Vote
Jeff Bezos Calls AI Surge a ‘Good’ Bubble, Urges Focus on Lasting Innovation
Japan’s Ruling Party Chooses Sanae Takaichi, Clearing Path to First Female Prime Minister
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Sentenced to Fifty Months in Prison Following Prostitution Conviction
Taylor Swift’s ‘Showgirl’ Launch Extends Billion-Dollar Empire
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
×