London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Oct 25, 2026

EU economy projected to avoid recession

EU economy projected to avoid recession

The more positive outlook is down to a reduced reliance on gas, as the bloc's 27 countries sought to wean themselves off Russian supplies following the invasion of Ukraine last year.
A more positive picture of the EU economy has been predicted: it is to avoid recession with lower inflation and higher growth than had been forecast.

The bloc will now avoid a technical recession, the EU said in its winter economic forecast, which is when the economy goes through a six-month period of economic contraction.

Recession had been forecast in the EU's last economic forecast in November, but instead the annual growth rate for 2022 is estimated to be 3.5%.

Growth will continue throughout this year, the latest forecast says. The economy across the 27 countries will grow 0.8% in 2023, the union now expects - up from the 0.3% predicted in the autumn economic forecast.

The growth rate for 2024 remains unchanged at 1.6%.

Similarly, inflation has reached its peak and also been revised downwards for both this year and next, and unemployment remains at an all-time low at 6.1%

The rate of price increases dropped from 11.1% in November to 10.4% in December last year, but it's still up from 5.3% a year before.

The decline was mostly driven by the slowing rate of energy price increases. Next year, inflation is forecast to fall to 6.4% in 2023 and to 2.8% in 2024, meaning higher prices will remain.

The more positive outlook is down to a reduced reliance on gas combined with lower gas prices, despite energy costs overall remaining high. More power was sourced from elsewhere and gas consumption dropped, which along with cheaper wholesale gas prices has helped growth.

'This doesn't mean a positive overall outlook'

But Paolo Gentiloni, the European commissioner for the economy, warned that times were still tough, with inflation only releasing "its grip on purchasing power" in a gradual way.

While the outlook is "less negative than we expected", Mr Gentiloni said, "this doesn't mean we have a positive overall outlook".

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, EU countries rushed to reduce their dependency on the gas bought mostly from Moscow. This involved reducing power consumption by measures such as not lighting certain buildings at night and not heating gas-powered private swimming pools.

Member states had agreed a voluntary plan to reduce gas consumption by 15%.

Gas prices skyrocketed following the invasion and reached a high in August as Vladimir Putin threatened to cut supplies, before he actually did so at the end of the month.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Implements Stricter Water Quality Regulations for British Rivers
Welsh Government Launches Major Renewable Energy Initiative to Expand Offshore Wind Capacity Along the Coast
Northern Ireland Executive Reaches Final Agreement on Comprehensive Regional Infrastructure Modernization Plan
Office for National Statistics Reports Moderate Increase in British Retail Sales Driven by Autumn Discounts
Scottish First Minister Announces Emergency Housing Strategy to Tackle Severe Homelessness Across Urban Centers
Automotive Industry Leaders in the United Kingdom Urge Government Support for Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Transition
United Kingdom and European Union Initiate High-Level Negotiations on Post-Brexit Defense and Security Pact
National Health Service England Introduces Sweeping Digital Reforms to Reduce Hospital Waiting Lists Nationwide
Chancellor of the Exchequer Outlines Emergency Fiscal Measures to Address Local Government Funding Crises Across England
Bank of England Governor Warns of Persistent Inflation Pressures Impacting Interest Rate Decisions in the United Kingdom
UK Conservative Party Suspends Former Electoral Candidate Following Undercover Investigation
Actors and Writers Condemn British Anti Terror Legislation Targeting Activist Groups and Free Speech
Central Bank and Treasury Monitor Inflation Risks as International Monetary Fund Upgrades United Kingdom Growth Forecast
Storm Boelo Batters British Isles With Eighty Mile Per Hour Winds Causing Widespread Power Outages
British Intelligence Services and Technology Firms Partner to Counter Artificial Intelligence Enabled Cybersecurity Threats
UK Consumer Confidence Falls at Fastest Rate Since Brexit Vote as Cost of Living Intensifies
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Landmark Autumn Budget Focused on Devolution and Fiscal Rules
Northern Ireland Executive Ministers Reach Consensus on Shared Economic Development Priorities to Stimulate Regional Growth in Belfast
Department for Business and Trade Finalizes Conditional Support Package for Advanced Semiconductor Fabrication Facilities in Newport
Welsh Government Unveils Regional Industrial Development Strategy to Attract Green Energy Investment to South Wales Manufacturing Hubs
Foreign Secretary David Lammy Concludes Diplomatic Mission to European Capital Cities to Strengthen Post-Brexit Defense Cooperation
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Implements Stricter Regulatory Compliance Standards for Water Utilities Across England
Office for National Statistics Reports Moderate Wage Growth Stabilization and Resilient Employment Figures Across the United Kingdom
Scottish Government and Trade Union Representatives Reach Tentative Pay Agreement for Public Sector Transport Workers in Edinburgh
National Health Service England Announces Emergency Capital Funding Allocation to Reduce Winter Emergency Department Bottlenecks
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Signals Cautious Approach to Interest Rate Reductions Amid Persistent Inflation Pressures
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Treasury Officials Finalize Urgent Fiscal Adjustments Ahead of Upcoming National Budget
Tour de France Organizers Confirm Historic Grand Depart Featuring Edinburgh and Yorkshire Stages
National Cyber Security Centre Issues Urgent Alerts Following Global Security Vulnerability in Core Programming Software
Independent Energy Analysts Warn Great Britain Faces Highest Winter Power Tariffs in Europe
Major British Defense Contractors Commit to Delivering Forty Thousand New Apprenticeships and Training Placements
New Bradford Railway Station Infrastructure Project Approved to Transform Regional Transit Connectivity Across Northern England
Welsh Infrastructure Stakeholders Press Government for Accelerated Local Sourcing in Military and Uniform Manufacturing
Scottish Council Governance Crisis Triggers High-Court Legal Challenge Over Leadership Ouster Bid
High Street Bakery Chain Greggs Announces Major Factory Closures and Seven Hundred Job Cuts
Automotive Manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover Advances Advanced Defense Technology Partnership with European Allies
Treasury and Bank of England Officials Signal Persistent Concern Over Inflation-Driven Interest Rate Path
International Monetary Fund Upgrades United Kingdom Growth Forecast While Issuing Inflation Warnings
National Health Service Leaders Warn of Severe Capacity Pressures as Early Winter Respiratory Infections Surge
Government Issues Emergency Resilience Guidance Advising All British Citizens to Stockpile Essential Supplies
United Kingdom Private Sector Growth Beats Expectations in October Driven by Resilient Services and Manufacturing
Barclays to Cut Five Thousand Jobs in Major Artificial Intelligence Adoption and Cost-Cutting Overhaul
Piper Tomahawk Aircraft Crash Near Drymen in Stirling Claims Two Lives as Investigators Deploy
North Sea Transition Authority Approves Jackdaw Gas Field Production After Ministerial Authorization
Government Injects One Hundred and Forty Million Pounds to Expand Urgent Care Ahead of Winter Crisis
Department of Health Warns Further Pay Rises Will Derail National Health Service Waiting List Targets
Major Environmental Emergency Declared in South Wales Following Aerospace Kerosene Spill
Tank Barrel Production Returns to Britain as Defence Contractors Accelerate Domestic Rearmament
Government Approves Controversial Jackdaw Gasfield Development in the North Sea
National Health Service Maternity Safety Review Condemned Over Flawed Artificial Intelligence Integration
×