London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025

EU economy projected to avoid recession

EU economy projected to avoid recession

The more positive outlook is down to a reduced reliance on gas, as the bloc's 27 countries sought to wean themselves off Russian supplies following the invasion of Ukraine last year.
A more positive picture of the EU economy has been predicted: it is to avoid recession with lower inflation and higher growth than had been forecast.

The bloc will now avoid a technical recession, the EU said in its winter economic forecast, which is when the economy goes through a six-month period of economic contraction.

Recession had been forecast in the EU's last economic forecast in November, but instead the annual growth rate for 2022 is estimated to be 3.5%.

Growth will continue throughout this year, the latest forecast says. The economy across the 27 countries will grow 0.8% in 2023, the union now expects - up from the 0.3% predicted in the autumn economic forecast.

The growth rate for 2024 remains unchanged at 1.6%.

Similarly, inflation has reached its peak and also been revised downwards for both this year and next, and unemployment remains at an all-time low at 6.1%

The rate of price increases dropped from 11.1% in November to 10.4% in December last year, but it's still up from 5.3% a year before.

The decline was mostly driven by the slowing rate of energy price increases. Next year, inflation is forecast to fall to 6.4% in 2023 and to 2.8% in 2024, meaning higher prices will remain.

The more positive outlook is down to a reduced reliance on gas combined with lower gas prices, despite energy costs overall remaining high. More power was sourced from elsewhere and gas consumption dropped, which along with cheaper wholesale gas prices has helped growth.

'This doesn't mean a positive overall outlook'

But Paolo Gentiloni, the European commissioner for the economy, warned that times were still tough, with inflation only releasing "its grip on purchasing power" in a gradual way.

While the outlook is "less negative than we expected", Mr Gentiloni said, "this doesn't mean we have a positive overall outlook".

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, EU countries rushed to reduce their dependency on the gas bought mostly from Moscow. This involved reducing power consumption by measures such as not lighting certain buildings at night and not heating gas-powered private swimming pools.

Member states had agreed a voluntary plan to reduce gas consumption by 15%.

Gas prices skyrocketed following the invasion and reached a high in August as Vladimir Putin threatened to cut supplies, before he actually did so at the end of the month.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Macron and his wife to provide 'scientific photographic evidence' that she is a real woman
US Tech Giants Pledge Billions to UK AI Infrastructure Following Starmer's Call
Saudi Arabia cracks down on music ‘lounges’ after conservative backlash
DeepMind and OpenAI Achieve Gold at ‘Coding Olympics’ in AI Milestone
SEC Allows Public Companies to Block Investors from Class-Action Lawsuits
Saudi Arabia Signs ‘Strategic Mutual Defence’ Pact with Pakistan, Marking First Arab State to Gain Indirect Access to Nuclear Strike Capabilities in the Region
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by Quarter Point and Signals More to Come
Effective and Impressive Generation Z Protest: Images from the Riots in Nepal
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Sam Altman sells the 'Wedding Estate' in Hawaii for 49 million dollars
Trump: Cancel quarterly company reports and settle for reporting once every six months
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
US Launches New Pilot Program to Accelerate eVTOL Air Taxi Deployment
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
Hong Kong Industry Group Calls for HK$20 Billion Support Fund to Ease Property Market Stress
Joe Biden’s Post-Presidency Speaking Fees Face Weak Demand amid Corporate Reluctance
Charlie Kirk's murder will break the left's hateful cancel tactics
Kash Patel erupts at ‘buffoon’ Sen. Adam Schiff over Russiagate: ‘You are the biggest fraud’
Homeland Security says Emmy speech ‘fanning the flames of hatred’ after Einbinder’s ‘F— ICE’ remark
Charlie Kirk’s Alleged Assassin Tyler Robinson Faces Death Penalty as Charges Formally Announced
Actor, director, environmentalist Robert Redford dies at 89
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
JD Vance Says There Is “No Unity” with Those Who Celebrate Charlie Kirk’s Killing, and he is right!
Trump sues the 'New York Times' for an astronomical sum of 15 billion dollars
Florida Hospital Welcomes Its Largest-Ever Baby: Annan, Nearly Fourteen Pounds at Birth
U.S. and Britain Poised to Finalize Over $10 Billion in High-Tech, Nuclear and Defense Deals During Trump State Visit
China Finds Nvidia Violated Antitrust Laws in Mellanox Deal, Deepens Trade Tensions with US
US Air Force Begins Modifications on Qatar-Donated Jet Amid Plans to Use It as Air Force One
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
Elon Musk Retakes Lead as World’s Richest After Brief Ellison Surge
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
London Daily Podcast: London Massive Pro Democracy Rally, Musk Support, UK Economic Data and Premier League Results Mark Eventful Weekend
This Week in AI: Meta’s Superintelligence Push, xAI’s Ten Billion-Dollar Raise, Genesis AI’s Robotics Ambitions, Microsoft Restructuring, Amazon’s Million-Robot Milestone, and Google’s AlphaGenome Update
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Musk calls for new UK government at huge pro-democracy rally in London, but Britons have been brainwashed to obey instead of fighting for their human rights
Elon Musk responds to post calling for the murder of Erika Kirk, widow of Charlie Kirk: 'Either we fight back or they will kill us'
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
USA: Office Depot Employees Refused to Print Poster in Memory of Charlie Kirk – and Were Fired
Proposed U.S. Bill Would Allow Civil Suits Against Judges Who Release Repeat Violent Offenders
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
French Debt Downgrade Piles Pressure on Macron’s New Prime Minister
US and UK Near Tech, Nuclear and Whisky Deals Ahead of Trump Trip
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
Anesthesiologist Left Operation Mid-Surgery to Have Sex with Nurse
×