London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Mar 02, 2026

Economy shrinks unexpectedly in August by 0.3%, Office for National Statistics figures show

Economy shrinks unexpectedly in August by 0.3%, Office for National Statistics figures show

The growth experienced in July was also revised downwards as commentators fear recession.

The economy unexpectedly shrank in August, contracting by 0.3% on the previous month.

The growth in July has also been revised downwards, from the previously recorded 0.2% to 0.1%.

The Office for National Statistics released its latest reading on the UK's performance as the government frets over the prospect of recession ahead, given the toll placed on demand by the cost of living crisis.

The result for August is worse than expected, as no growth rather than shrinking was anticipated.

It is likely that the contraction will result in a sharper period of slowdown in September.


"August's negative out-turn should be followed by a more marked drop in September's output as the extra bank holiday for the Queen's funeral will have added to the downwards pressure on activity," Suren Thiru, economics director of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said.

Commentators now suspect the UK is nearing a recession.

"UK economy teetering on the edge of recession," Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said.

"The ongoing squeeze on household finances continues to weigh on growth, and likely to have caused the UK economy to enter a technical recession from the third quarter of this year."

Mr Thiru added: "The government has needlessly risked a longer recession with any boost from the energy package likely to be dwarfed by a sustained squeeze on UK output from persistently high inflation, punishing interest rate rises and acute financial market turbulence."

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "August's drop in GDP likely marks the start of a downward trend that will continue deep into next year."

The ONS figures were dismissed as estimates by Jacob Rees-Mogg, the business secretary, who told Sky News that "figures that are released immediately are very often revised".

Action by the Bank of England to tame inflation, through successive interest rate increases, is adding to the cost burden for borrowers.

The Bank's tightening has placed its mandate to control inflation at odds with the agenda of the new Truss administration, which has set a target for annual economic growth of 2.5%.

The mini-budget last month, which contained energy bill help for households and businesses along with a series of tax cuts, prompted turmoil on financial markets.

The resulting crisis of credibility forced down the value of the pound and raised government borrowing costs to such an extent that the Bank had to intervene.

The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that the government should ensure its tax and spending plans are in line with the Bank of England's inflation-fighting remit.

In other words, the priority should be tackling inflation rather than adding to the price problem through tax giveaways to achieve economic growth.

The IMF welcomed the prospect of an earlier-than-expected debt plan from Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor.

That will now be delivered to MPs on 31 October and contain independent analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Responding to this morning's announcement, Mr Kwarteng said the UK was facing global challenges that his government's growth plan will address.

"Countries around the world are facing challenges right now, particularly as a result of high energy prices driven by Putin's barbaric action in Ukraine," he said.

"That is why this government acted quickly to put in place a comprehensive plan to protect families and businesses from soaring energy bills this winter.

"Our Growth Plan will address the challenges that we face with ambitious supply-side reforms and tax cuts, which will grow our economy, create more well-paid skilled jobs and in turn raise living standards for everyone."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Violent Pro-Iranian Protesters Storm U.S. Consulate in Karachi
Missile Debris Sparks Fires at Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port Near Palm Jumeirah
Iran Strikes U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain Amid Wider Gulf Retaliation
When the State Replaces the Parent: How Gender Policy Is Redefining Custody and Coercion
Bill Clinton Denies Knowing Woman in Hot Tub Photo During Closed-Door Epstein Deposition
Former U.S. President Bill Clinton Testifies on Ties to Jeffrey Epstein Before Congressional Oversight Committee
Dyson Reaches Settlement in Landmark UK Forced Labour Case
Barclays and Jefferies Shares Fall After UK Mortgage Lender Collapse Rekindles Credit Market Concerns
Play Exploring Donald Trump’s Rise to Power by ‘Lehman Trilogy’ Author to Premiere in the UK
Man Arrested After Churchill Statue Defaced in Central London
Keir Starmer Faces Political Setback as Labour Finishes Third in High-Profile By-Election
UK Assisted Dying Bill Set to Fall Short in Parliament as Regional Initiatives Gain Ground
UK Defence Ministry Clarifies Position After Reports of Imminent Helicopter Contract
Independent Left-Wing Plumber Secures Shock Victory as Greens Surge in UK By-Election
Reform UK Refers Alleged ‘Family Voting’ Incidents in By-Election to Police
United Kingdom Temporarily Withdraws Embassy Staff from Iran Amid Heightened Regional Tensions
UK Government Reaches Framework Agreement on Release of Mandelson Vetting Files
UK Police Contracts With Israeli Surveillance Firms Spark Debate Over Ethics and Oversight
United Airlines Passenger Hears Cockpit Conversations After Accessing In-Flight Audio Channel
Spain to Conduct Border Checks on Gibraltar Arrivals Under New Post-Brexit Framework
Engie Shares Jump After $14 Billion Agreement to Acquire UK Power Grid Assets
BNP Paribas Overtakes Goldman Sachs in UK Investment Banking League Tables
Geothermal Project to Power Ten Thousand Homes Marks UK Renewable Energy Milestone
UK Visa Grants Drop Nineteen Percent in 2025 as Migration Controls Tighten
Barclays and Jefferies Among Banks Exposed to Collapse of UK Mortgage Lender MFS
UK Asylum Applications Edge Down in 2025 Despite Rise in Small Boat Crossings
Jefferies Reports Significant Exposure After Collapse of UK Lender MFS
FTSE 100 Reaches Fresh Record Highs as Major Share Buybacks and Earnings Lift London Stocks
So, what's happened is, I think, government policy, not just under Labour, but under the Conservatives as well, has driven a lot of small landlords out of business.
Larry Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, is resigning from Harvard University as fallout continues over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow gaining about six-tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 adding eight-tenths of a percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing roughly one-and-a-quarter percent.
From fears of AI-fuelled unemployment to Big Tech's record investment, this is AI Weekly.
Apple just dropped iOS 26.4.
US Lawmakers Seek Briefing from UK Over Reported Encryption Order Directed at Apple
UK Business Secretary Calls on EU to Remove Trade Barriers Hindering Growth
Legal Pathways for Removing Prince Andrew from Britain’s Line of Succession Examined
PM Netanyahu welcome India PM Narendra Modi to Israel
Shadow Diplomacy: How Harry and Meghan’s Jordan Trip Undermines the Monarchy
Sir Jim Ratcliffe, co-owner of Manchester United, comments on immigration in the UK.
Bill Gates, the UN and the WEF are attempting to construct "a giant digital gulag for all of humanity" via digital ID, CBDCs and vaccine passport infrastructure.
Britain’s Channel Crisis: Paying Billions While the Boats Keep Coming
Downing Street’s Veteran Deception Scandal
UK HealthCare Expands ‘Food as Health’ Initiative Statewide to Tackle Chronic Illness in Kentucky
Leonardo Chief Says UK Set to Decide on New Medium Helicopter Programme
UK Slows Chagos Islands Agreement After Concerns Raised in Washington
European and UK Stock Markets Reach Fresh Highs as Banks and Miners Lead Rally
UK Government Insists Chagos Islands Negotiations Continue After Minister’s ‘Pause’ Remark
No Confirmed Deal for Engie to Acquire UK Power Networks Amid Market Speculation
UK Reaffirms Updated Entry Requirements for Travellers as of February 25, 2026
General Atlantic to sell equity stake in ByteDance, valuing the company at $550 billion
×