London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Nov 13, 2025

Economy shrinks unexpectedly in August by 0.3%, Office for National Statistics figures show

Economy shrinks unexpectedly in August by 0.3%, Office for National Statistics figures show

The growth experienced in July was also revised downwards as commentators fear recession.

The economy unexpectedly shrank in August, contracting by 0.3% on the previous month.

The growth in July has also been revised downwards, from the previously recorded 0.2% to 0.1%.

The Office for National Statistics released its latest reading on the UK's performance as the government frets over the prospect of recession ahead, given the toll placed on demand by the cost of living crisis.

The result for August is worse than expected, as no growth rather than shrinking was anticipated.

It is likely that the contraction will result in a sharper period of slowdown in September.


"August's negative out-turn should be followed by a more marked drop in September's output as the extra bank holiday for the Queen's funeral will have added to the downwards pressure on activity," Suren Thiru, economics director of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said.

Commentators now suspect the UK is nearing a recession.

"UK economy teetering on the edge of recession," Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said.

"The ongoing squeeze on household finances continues to weigh on growth, and likely to have caused the UK economy to enter a technical recession from the third quarter of this year."

Mr Thiru added: "The government has needlessly risked a longer recession with any boost from the energy package likely to be dwarfed by a sustained squeeze on UK output from persistently high inflation, punishing interest rate rises and acute financial market turbulence."

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "August's drop in GDP likely marks the start of a downward trend that will continue deep into next year."

The ONS figures were dismissed as estimates by Jacob Rees-Mogg, the business secretary, who told Sky News that "figures that are released immediately are very often revised".

Action by the Bank of England to tame inflation, through successive interest rate increases, is adding to the cost burden for borrowers.

The Bank's tightening has placed its mandate to control inflation at odds with the agenda of the new Truss administration, which has set a target for annual economic growth of 2.5%.

The mini-budget last month, which contained energy bill help for households and businesses along with a series of tax cuts, prompted turmoil on financial markets.

The resulting crisis of credibility forced down the value of the pound and raised government borrowing costs to such an extent that the Bank had to intervene.

The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that the government should ensure its tax and spending plans are in line with the Bank of England's inflation-fighting remit.

In other words, the priority should be tackling inflation rather than adding to the price problem through tax giveaways to achieve economic growth.

The IMF welcomed the prospect of an earlier-than-expected debt plan from Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor.

That will now be delivered to MPs on 31 October and contain independent analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Responding to this morning's announcement, Mr Kwarteng said the UK was facing global challenges that his government's growth plan will address.

"Countries around the world are facing challenges right now, particularly as a result of high energy prices driven by Putin's barbaric action in Ukraine," he said.

"That is why this government acted quickly to put in place a comprehensive plan to protect families and businesses from soaring energy bills this winter.

"Our Growth Plan will address the challenges that we face with ambitious supply-side reforms and tax cuts, which will grow our economy, create more well-paid skilled jobs and in turn raise living standards for everyone."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Upholds Firm Rules on Stablecoins to Shield Financial System
Brussels Divided as UK-EU Reset Stalls Over Budget Access
Prince Harry’s Remembrance Day Essay Expresses Strong Regret at Leaving Britain
UK Unemployment Hits 5% as Wage Growth Slows, Paving Way for Bank of England Rate Cut
Starmer Warns of Resurgent Racism in UK Politics as He Vows Child-Poverty Reforms
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 4.7% as Supermarkets Launch Pre-Christmas Promotions
UK Government Backs the BBC amid Editing Scandal and Trump Threat of Legal Action
UK Assessment Mis-Estimated Fallout From Palestine Action Ban, Records Reveal
UK Halts Intelligence Sharing with US Amid Lethal Boat-Strike Concerns
King Charles III Leads Britain in Remembrance Sunday Tribute to War Dead
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
Shell Pulls Out of Two UK Floating Wind Projects Amid Renewables Retreat
Viagogo Hit With £15 Million Tax Bill After HMRC Transfer-Pricing Inquiry
Jaguar Land Rover Cyberattack Pinches UK GDP, Bank of England Says
UK and Germany Sound Alarm on Russian-Satellite Threat to Critical Infrastructure
Former Prince Andrew Faces U.S. Congressional Request for Testimony Amid Brexit of Royal Title
BBC Director-General Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness Resign Amid Editing Controversy
Tom Cruise Arrives by Helicopter at UK Scientology Fundraiser Amid Local Protests
Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson Face Fresh UK Probes Amid Royal Fallout
Mothers Link Teen Suicides to AI Chatbots in Growing Legal Battle
UK Government to Mirror Denmark’s Tough Immigration Framework in Major Policy Shift
UK Government Turns to Denmark-Style Immigration Reforms to Overhaul Border Rules
UK Chancellor Warned Against Cutting Insulation Funding as Budget Looms
UK Tenant Complaints Hit Record Levels as Rental Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
Apple to Pay Google About One Billion Dollars Annually for Gemini AI to Power Next-Generation Siri
UK Signals Major Shift as Nuclear Arms Race Looms
BBC’s « Celebrity Traitors UK » Finale Breaks Records with 11.1 Million Viewers
UK Spy Case Collapse Highlights Implications for UK-Taiwan Strategic Alignment
On the Road to the Oscars? Meghan Markle to Star in a New Film
A Vote Worth a Trillion Dollars: Elon Musk’s Defining Day
AI Researchers Claim Human-Level General Intelligence Is Already Here
President Donald Trump Challenges Nigeria with Military Options Over Alleged Christian Killings
Nancy Pelosi Finally Announces She Will Not Seek Re-Election, Signalling End of Long Congressional Career
UK Pre-Budget Blues and Rate-Cut Concerns Pile Pressure on Pound
ITV Warns of Nine-Per-Cent Drop in Q4 Advertising Revenue Amid Budget Uncertainty
National Grid Posts Slightly Stronger-Than-Expected Half-Year Profit as Regulatory Investments Drive Growth
UK Business Lobby Urges Reeves to Break Tax Pledges and Build Fiscal Headroom
UK to Launch Consultation on Stablecoin Regulation on November 10
UK Savers Rush to Withdraw Pension Cash Ahead of Budget Amid Tax-Change Fears
Massive Spoilers Emerge from MAFS UK 2025: Couple Swaps, Dating App Leaks and Reunion Bombshells
Kurdish-led Crime Network Operates UK Mini-Marts to Exploit Migrants and Sell Illicit Goods
UK Income Tax Hike Could Trigger £1 Billion Cut to Scotland’s Budget, Warns Finance Secretary
Tommy Robinson Acquitted of Terror-related Charge After Phone PIN Dispute
Boris Johnson Condemns Western Support for Hamas at Jewish Community Conference
HII Welcomes UK’s Westley Group to Strengthen AUKUS Submarine Supply Chain
Tragedy in Serbia: Coach Mladen Žižović Collapses During Match and Dies at 44
Diplo Says He Dated Katy Perry — and Justin Trudeau
Dick Cheney, Former U.S. Vice President, Dies at 84
Trump Calls Title Removal of Andrew ‘Tragic Situation’ Amid Royal Fallout
UK Bonds Rally as Chancellor Reeves Briefs Markets Ahead of November Budget
×