London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Oct 12, 2026

Economy returns to growth in October - but recession still expected

Economy returns to growth in October - but recession still expected

There is no sudden recovery in output to cheer as the impact of the Queen's funeral continues to play out in UK growth figures.
The economy returned to growth in October, according to early official figures which experts suggest could be the last to show expansion for some time.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported growth of 0.5% - following a contraction of 0.6% in September which was largely put down to disruption to usual activity because of the bank holiday for the Queen's funeral.

October's partial recovery, which was slightly stronger than economists had forecast, was mostly explained by the number of working days returning to normal rather than any real surge in output.

The ONS charted the main boost coming from wholesale and retail activity - both significantly affected by closures as a mark of respect to the late Queen.

As such, economists still expect a recession to be confirmed at the end of the year.

That is because output is tipped to be negative during the current fourth quarter as a whole, following the 0.2% dip recorded for the third quarter to September.

The Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility - which have both already declared their belief that the UK is in recession - expect the downturn to last throughout 2023 but remain shallow.

Economic activity has slowed as a result of high inflation, mostly caused by Russia's war in Ukraine, curbing appetite for spending.

Interest rate rises from the Bank, aimed at curbing inflation, have raised borrowing costs to further dampen demand.

Fixed rate mortgages, also, are yet to ease back to levels seen before the September mini-budget which saw financial markets baulk at the spending plans of the-then Liz Truss-led government.

New chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who has since rowed back on the growth measures, said of the latest growth figures: "High inflation, exacerbated by Putin's illegal war, is slowing growth across the world, with the IMF predicting a third of the world economy will be in recession this year or next.

"While today's figures show some growth, I want to be honest that there is a tough road ahead.

"Like the rest of Europe, we are not immune from the aftershocks of Covid-19, Putin's war and high global gas prices.

"Our plan has restored economic stability and will help drive down inflation next year, but also lay the foundations for long-term growth through continued record investment in new infrastructure, science and innovation."

The Bank, which raised its rate by 0.75 percentage points last month, is widely expected to impose a further hike of 0.5 percentage points this week.

It is anticipating an easing in energy-driven inflation ahead but forecast to maintain the pressure given that the rate of inflation is at a 41-year high of 11.1%.

Figures for November, due on Wednesday, are expected to show an annual rate of 10.9% according to economists polled by the Reuters news agency.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Nearly 100,000 NHS Patients Treated in Hospital Corridors as England Braces for Winter Pressures
UK Government Rejects US-Russia Diesel Agreement and Reaffirms Sanctions Against Moscow
UK and Germany Agree to Deepen Security and Economic Cooperation Following Berlin Talks
British Prime Minister Burnham Pledges Closer EU Ties During Visit to Germany
UK Announces New Sanctions on 17 Russia-Linked Entities During Foreign Secretary's Ukraine Visit
UK and Germany Finalize Kensington Treaty to Strengthen Defense and Technology Cooperation
Britain Maintains Diplomatic Mission in East Jerusalem Despite Israeli Closure Deadline
English Councils Push Government to Rethink Proposed Funding Cuts
Scottish Homebuilding Falls to Lowest Level in 11 Years
BBC Chief Matt Brittin Defends Restructuring as Staff Challenge Job Cuts
UK Finance Warns High Energy Costs and Bond Yields Are Complicating Fiscal Outlook
UK Adopts All 44 Recommendations on Regulating AI in Healthcare
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget as Borrowing Costs Strain Public Finances
UK Investigators See Strong Indications of Iranian Link After RAF Fairford Security Operation
Laura Trott Pledges Tighter Controls on Political Activism in UK Classrooms
Welsh Ministers Launch Long-Term Review of North Wales and Anglesey Crossings
Welsh Government Orders 18-Month Study of Road Solutions Around Newport
Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin Faces Scrutiny Over £800,000 Second Home Purchase
British Households Grow More Concerned About Fuel and Energy Prices
NHS Leaders Warn of Rising Winter Pressure on Emergency Departments
Kemi Badenoch Proposes £2.3 Billion Employer National Insurance Cut for Young Workers
Middle East Conflict Could Erase UK Fiscal Headroom, Economists Warn
Manchester City Found Guilty of Multiple Premier League Financial Rule Breaches
UK Security Services Find Strong Indications of Iranian Role in RAF Fairford Incident
Costa Coffee Returns to Operating Profit on Iced Drinks and Menu Changes
Asos Warns Customers After Unauthorized Access to Retail App and Data
Kemi Badenoch Puts Growth and Deregulation at Center of Conservative Conference
Campaigners Warn of Deepening Social Care Crisis for Disabled Adults
Study Finds Rising Early-Onset Cancer Rates Among Adults Under 50 in Britain
UK Coach Operators Warn High Diesel Prices Could Force Route Cuts
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein-Linked Whistleblower Case
Argentina Vows to Block Falkland Islands Offshore Oil Development
UK Chancellor Prepares Fiscal Measures and Welfare Reforms Ahead of Autumn Budget
Sainsbury’s and Morrisons Explore Potential Multi-Billion-Pound Merger
UK Weighs Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles to Align With European Union
UK Threatens Diplomatic Expulsions Over Planned Closure of East Jerusalem Consulate
UK Energy Price Cap Hits Three-Year High as Middle East Conflict Raises Costs
Seventh Arrest Made in Suspected Terror Plot at RAF Fairford
Systemic Education Collapse Sparks Mass Student Uprisings in France
Green Party Faces Backlash Over Resolution Equating Zionism With Racism
Conservatives Debate Scrapping Environmental Rules for New Homes
Cornwall Insight Warns UK Energy Bills Could Approach £2,000 This Winter
UK Coach Operators Warn of Service Cuts as Diesel Prices Exceed £2
Scottish Parliament Approves £68 Billion Budget With New Tax and Property Measures
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein Whistleblower
UK Government Drops Plan to Suspend Jury Trials in England and Wales
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Markets Watch November
Two Iranian Nationals Charged Over Alleged Plot Targeting Manchester Jewish Community
UK Fiscal Headroom Halves to £11 Billion Ahead of Budget, EY Warns
US Bomber Withdrawal From RAF Fairford Prompts UK Security Review
×