London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025

Economy returns to growth in October - but recession still expected

Economy returns to growth in October - but recession still expected

There is no sudden recovery in output to cheer as the impact of the Queen's funeral continues to play out in UK growth figures.
The economy returned to growth in October, according to early official figures which experts suggest could be the last to show expansion for some time.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported growth of 0.5% - following a contraction of 0.6% in September which was largely put down to disruption to usual activity because of the bank holiday for the Queen's funeral.

October's partial recovery, which was slightly stronger than economists had forecast, was mostly explained by the number of working days returning to normal rather than any real surge in output.

The ONS charted the main boost coming from wholesale and retail activity - both significantly affected by closures as a mark of respect to the late Queen.

As such, economists still expect a recession to be confirmed at the end of the year.

That is because output is tipped to be negative during the current fourth quarter as a whole, following the 0.2% dip recorded for the third quarter to September.

The Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility - which have both already declared their belief that the UK is in recession - expect the downturn to last throughout 2023 but remain shallow.

Economic activity has slowed as a result of high inflation, mostly caused by Russia's war in Ukraine, curbing appetite for spending.

Interest rate rises from the Bank, aimed at curbing inflation, have raised borrowing costs to further dampen demand.

Fixed rate mortgages, also, are yet to ease back to levels seen before the September mini-budget which saw financial markets baulk at the spending plans of the-then Liz Truss-led government.

New chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who has since rowed back on the growth measures, said of the latest growth figures: "High inflation, exacerbated by Putin's illegal war, is slowing growth across the world, with the IMF predicting a third of the world economy will be in recession this year or next.

"While today's figures show some growth, I want to be honest that there is a tough road ahead.

"Like the rest of Europe, we are not immune from the aftershocks of Covid-19, Putin's war and high global gas prices.

"Our plan has restored economic stability and will help drive down inflation next year, but also lay the foundations for long-term growth through continued record investment in new infrastructure, science and innovation."

The Bank, which raised its rate by 0.75 percentage points last month, is widely expected to impose a further hike of 0.5 percentage points this week.

It is anticipating an easing in energy-driven inflation ahead but forecast to maintain the pressure given that the rate of inflation is at a 41-year high of 11.1%.

Figures for November, due on Wednesday, are expected to show an annual rate of 10.9% according to economists polled by the Reuters news agency.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
President Donald Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at White House to Seal Major Defence and Investment Deals
German Entertainment Icons Alice and Ellen Kessler Die Together at Age 89
UK Unveils Sweeping Asylum Reforms with 20-Year Settlement Wait and Conditional Status
UK Orders Twitter Hacker to Repay £4.1 Million Following 2020 High-Profile Breach
Popeyes UK Eyes Century Mark as Fried-Chicken Chain Accelerates Roll-out
Two-thirds of UK nurses report working while unwell amid staffing crisis
Britain to Reform Human-Rights Laws in Sweeping Asylum Policy Overhaul
Nearly Half of Job Losses Under Labour Government Affect UK Youth
UK Chancellor Reeves Eyes High-Value Home Levy in Budget to Raise Tens of Billions
UK Urges Poland to Choose Swedish Submarines in Multi-Billion € Defence Bid
US Border Czar Tom Homan Declares UK No Longer a ‘Friend’ Amid Intelligence Rift
UK Announces Reversal of Income Tax Hike Plans Ahead of Budget
Starmer Faces Mounting Turmoil as Leaked Briefings Ignite Leadership Plot Rumours
UK Commentator Sami Hamdi Returns Home After US Visa Revocation and Detention
UK Eyes Denmark-Style Asylum Rules in Major Migration Shift
UK Signals Intelligence Freeze Amid US Maritime Drug-Strike Campaign
TikTok Awards UK & Ireland 2025 Celebrates Top Creators Including Max Klymenko as Creator of the Year
UK Growth Nearly Stalls at 0.1% in Q3 as Cyberattack Halts Car Production
Apple Denied Permission to Appeal UK App Store Ruling, Faces Over £1bn Liability
UK Chooses Wylfa for First Small Modular Reactors, Drawing Sharp U.S. Objection
Starmer Faces Growing Labour Backlash as Briefing Sparks Authority Crisis
Reform UK Withdraws from BBC Documentary Amid Legal Storm Over Trump Speech Edit
UK Prime Minister Attempts to Reassert Authority Amid Internal Labour Leadership Drama
UK Upholds Firm Rules on Stablecoins to Shield Financial System
Brussels Divided as UK-EU Reset Stalls Over Budget Access
Prince Harry’s Remembrance Day Essay Expresses Strong Regret at Leaving Britain
UK Unemployment Hits 5% as Wage Growth Slows, Paving Way for Bank of England Rate Cut
Starmer Warns of Resurgent Racism in UK Politics as He Vows Child-Poverty Reforms
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 4.7% as Supermarkets Launch Pre-Christmas Promotions
UK Government Backs the BBC amid Editing Scandal and Trump Threat of Legal Action
UK Assessment Mis-Estimated Fallout From Palestine Action Ban, Records Reveal
UK Halts Intelligence Sharing with US Amid Lethal Boat-Strike Concerns
King Charles III Leads Britain in Remembrance Sunday Tribute to War Dead
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
Shell Pulls Out of Two UK Floating Wind Projects Amid Renewables Retreat
Viagogo Hit With £15 Million Tax Bill After HMRC Transfer-Pricing Inquiry
Jaguar Land Rover Cyberattack Pinches UK GDP, Bank of England Says
UK and Germany Sound Alarm on Russian-Satellite Threat to Critical Infrastructure
Former Prince Andrew Faces U.S. Congressional Request for Testimony Amid Brexit of Royal Title
BBC Director-General Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness Resign Amid Editing Controversy
Tom Cruise Arrives by Helicopter at UK Scientology Fundraiser Amid Local Protests
Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson Face Fresh UK Probes Amid Royal Fallout
Mothers Link Teen Suicides to AI Chatbots in Growing Legal Battle
UK Government to Mirror Denmark’s Tough Immigration Framework in Major Policy Shift
UK Government Turns to Denmark-Style Immigration Reforms to Overhaul Border Rules
UK Chancellor Warned Against Cutting Insulation Funding as Budget Looms
UK Tenant Complaints Hit Record Levels as Rental Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
Apple to Pay Google About One Billion Dollars Annually for Gemini AI to Power Next-Generation Siri
UK Signals Major Shift as Nuclear Arms Race Looms
BBC’s « Celebrity Traitors UK » Finale Breaks Records with 11.1 Million Viewers
×