London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, May 31, 2025

Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show

Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show

Covid is spreading "significantly" faster through England than even the government's predicted "worst-case" scenario, documents reveal.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says there are around four times as many people catching Covid than anticipated.

A "reasonable worst-case scenario" is used by officials and the NHS to plan for the months ahead.

It had estimated 85,000 deaths from Covid over the course of winter.

But an official Sage document, dated 14 October and published today, reveals we are in a worse position than expected.

Scientists crunching the numbers estimated that, by mid-October, there were between 43,000 and 74,000 people being infected with coronavirus every day in England.

Their report said: "This is significantly above the profile of the reasonable worst-case scenario, where the number of daily infections in England remained between 12,000-13,000 throughout October."

Analysis: Are we heading for lockdown?


You don't need to be a genius to realise how difficult managing the virus through winter is going to be.

Scientists advising the government have been arguing for a short, planned lockdown - called a circuit-breaker - since 21 September.

They made the case when there were around 5,000 confirmed cases a day. The numbers have changed dramatically since then and their argument is intensifying, not lessening.

The government is holding to its regional "tiered" system even as other countries introduce new lockdowns.

There are glimmers of hope with cases appearing to level off in the North East and the R number drifting down.

However, the national R is not below one and there will be a constant argument for tighter restrictions, in whatever form, until it is.

The biggest thing to remember is quite how much further we have to go - November, December, January and February are expected to be the toughest months - and we are in this for the long haul.

The report added that the number of people with Covid needing hospital care is already higher than the winter plan and deaths will "almost certainly" exceed the plan in the next two weeks.

However, this is not the same as saying more than 85,000 people will die this winter. Government action can still change the course of the pandemic.

The report stated that if cases fall in the "very near future" then the higher than anticipated deaths "might only continue for three to four weeks".

But if cases are not brought under control then the "epidemic will further diverge from the planning scenario", it added.

Even if cases are brought under control today, deaths would be expected to rise for another month due to the time between when some somebody is infected, when they need hospital care and when they die.

It comes as figures from the Office for National Statistics suggested an earlier warning on Covid case numbers, issued by the government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, has turned out to be accurate.

Speaking alongside chief medical adviser, Prof Chris Whitty, at Downing Street in September, Sir Patrick said the UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October.

The ONS estimated that there were about 52,000 new infections each day in homes in England alone in the week ending 23 October.

But cases of Covid-19 appear to be levelling off in the north-east of England, according to the ONS. While cases remain high, they have not continued on the trajectory of regions such as the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber.

The current estimate of the R number in the UK - the number of people each infected person passes the virus on to on average - is between 1.1 and 1.3.

This is lower than last week's estimate of 1.2 to 1.4, and lower than the estimate of 1.3-1.5 two weeks ago. It suggests that restrictions and changes in people's behaviour is having an impact.

But anything above an R of 1.0 means cases are still growing.



The University of Warwick's Dr Mike Tildesley, who sits on the Sage sub-group SPI-M, told the BBC News website: "If we are in a situation where what we're seeing exceeds the worst-case scenario, then this is a concern."

He added: "There's still some uncertainty, the worst-case scenario does climb quite dramatically in November and December and there's been a lot of policy changes in the last couple of weeks.

"It may be that we see the trajectory come down a bit."

However, he went on to say that tier three restrictions are unlikely to bring the R number below 1.0 and that "we might need to take more action on a national scale".

That is not part of the government's current strategy, which is focused on local restrictions to control the virus.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said earlier the government was "striving" to avoid new national restrictions. This week, both Germany and France have taken that step.

Mr Raab told the BBC that ministers were "confident" they had "the right measures and framework in place, which is not to have a blanket approach, but to target measures [...] on the areas where the uptick is highest".

Sir Ian Diamond, the national statistician and Sage member, said he was "fairly gloomy" as the virus was "moving very quickly".

"I think we need to be absolutely tireless in everybody across the country following the rules around safe distancing, hand washing, wearing masks, because if not, then I fear that the virus is going to exponentially increase," he said.

A government spokesman said: "We continue to prepare for a wide range of scenarios, including the reasonable worst-case scenario, and this is kept under constant review.

"We will not hesitate to put in place further measures if necessary."


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Satirical Sketch Sparks Political Spouse Feud in South Korea
Indonesia Quarry Collapse Leaves Multiple Dead and Missing
South Korean Election Video Pulled Amid Misogyny Outcry
Asian Economies Shift Away from US Dollar Amid Trade Tensions
Netflix Investigates Allegations of On-Set Mistreatment in K-Drama Production
US Defence Chief Reaffirms Strong Ties with Singapore Amid Regional Tensions
Vietnam Faces Strategic Dilemma Over China's Mekong River Projects
Malaysia's First AI Preacher Sparks Debate on Islamic Principles
White House Press Secretary Criticizes Harvard Funding, Advocates for Vocational Training
France to Implement Nationwide Smoking Ban in Outdoor Spaces Frequented by Children
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
Russia's Fossil Fuel Revenues Approach €900 Billion Since Ukraine Invasion
U.S. Justice Department Reduces American Bar Association's Role in Judicial Nominations
U.S. Department of Energy Unveils 'Doudna' Supercomputer to Advance AI Research
U.S. SEC Dismisses Lawsuit Against Binance Amid Regulatory Shift
Alcohol Industry Faces Increased Scrutiny Amid Health Concerns
Italy Faces Population Decline Amid Youth Emigration
U.S. Goods Imports Plunge Nearly 20% Amid Tariff Disruptions
OpenAI Faces Competition from Cheaper AI Rivals
Foreign Tax Provision in U.S. Budget Bill Alarms Investors
Trump Accuses China of Violating Trade Agreement
Gerry Adams Wins Libel Case Against BBC
Russia Accuses Serbia of Supplying Arms to Ukraine
EU Central Bank Pushes to Replace US Dollar with Euro as World’s Main Currency
Chinese Woman Dies After Being Forced to Visit Bank Despite Critical Illness
President Trump Grants Full Pardons to Reality TV Stars Todd and Julie Chrisley
Texas Enacts App Store Accountability Act Mandating Age Verification
U.S. Health Secretary Ends Select COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Vatican Calls for Sustainable Tourism in 2025 Message
Trump Warns Putin Is 'Playing with Fire' Amid Escalating Ukraine Conflict
India and Pakistan Engage Trump-Linked Lobbyists to Influence U.S. Policy
U.S. Halts New Student Visa Interviews Amid Enhanced Security Measures
Trump Administration Cancels $100 Million in Federal Contracts with Harvard
SpaceX Starship Test Flight Ends in Failure, Mars Mission Timeline Uncertain
King Charles Affirms Canadian Sovereignty Amid U.S. Statehood Pressure
Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on iPhones Amid Dispute with Apple CEO
Putin's Helicopter Reportedly Targeted by Ukrainian Drones
Liverpool Car Ramming Incident Leaves Multiple Injured
Australia Faces Immigration Debate Following Labor Party Victory
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Founder Warns Against Trusting Regime in Nuclear Talks
Macron Dismisses Viral Video of Wife's Gesture as Playful Banter
Cleveland Clinic Study Questions Effectiveness of Recent Flu Vaccine
Netanyahu Accuses Starmer of Siding with Hamas
Junior Doctors Threaten Strike Over 4% Pay Offer
Labour MPs Urge Chancellor to Tax Wealthy Over Cutting Welfare
Publication of UK Child Poverty Strategy Delayed Until Autumn
France Detains UK Fishing Vessel Amid Post-Brexit Tensions
Calls Grow to Resume Syrian Asylum Claims in UK
Nigel Farage Pledges to Reinstate Winter Fuel Payments
Boris and Carrie Johnson Welcome Daughter Poppy
×