London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025

Coronavirus ‘highly sensitive’ to high temperatures, but don’t bank on summer killing it off, studies say

Pathogen appears to spread fastest at 8.72 degrees Celsius, so countries in colder climes should ‘adopt the strictest control measures’, according to researchers from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangdong province. But head of WHO’s health emergencies programme says it is ‘a false hope’ to think Covid-19 will just disappear like the flu

The virus that causes Covid-19 may have a temperature sweet spot at which it spreads fastest, a new study has suggested, but experts say people should avoid falling into the trap of thinking it will react to seasonal changes in exactly the same way as other pathogens, like those that cause the common cold or influenza.

The study, by a team from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, the capital of south China’s Guangdong province, sought to determine how the spread of the new coronavirus might be affected by changes in season and temperature.
Published last month, though yet to be peer-reviewed, the report suggested heat had a significant role to play in how the virus behaves.

“Temperature could significantly change Covid-19 transmission,” it said. “And there might be a best temperature for viral transmission.”



The “virus is highly sensitive to high temperature”, which could prevent it from spreading in warmer countries, while the opposite appeared to be true in colder climes, the study said.

As a result, it suggested that “countries and regions with a lower temperature adopt the strictest control measures”.

Many national governments and health authorities are banking on the coronavirus losing some of its potency as the weather warms up, as is generally the case with similar viruses that cause the common cold and influenza.

However, a separate study by a group of researchers including epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch from Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, found that sustained transmission of the coronavirus and the rapid growth in infections was possible in a range of humidity conditions – from cold and dry provinces in China to tropical locations, such as the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in the far south of the country and Singapore.

“Weather alone, [such as an] increase of temperature and humidity as the spring and summer months arrive in the Northern Hemisphere, will not necessarily lead to declines in case counts without the implementation of extensive public health interventions,” said the study, which was published in February and is also awaiting scientific review.

The Guangzhou team based their study on every novel coronavirus case confirmed around the world between January 20 and February 4, including in more than 400 Chinese cities and regions. These were then modelled against official meteorological data for January from across China and the capital cities of each country affected.

The analysis indicated that case numbers rose in line with average temperatures up to a peak of 8.72 degrees Celsius and then declined.

“Temperature … has an impact on people’s living environments … [and] could play a significant role in public health in terms of epidemic development and control,” the study said.

It said also that climate may have played a part in why the virus broke out in Wuhan, the central China city where it was first detected.



Other experts, like Hassan Zaraket, an assistant director at the Centre for Infectious Diseases Research at the American University of Beirut, said it was possible that warmer, more humid weather would make the coronavirus less stable and thus less transmissible, as was the case with other viral pathogens.

“We are still learning about this virus, but based on what we know of other coronaviruses we can be hopeful,” he said.

“As temperatures are warming up, the stability of the virus could decrease … if the weather helps us reduce transmissibility and environmental stability of the virus, then maybe we can break the chain of transmission.”

However, even if this were the case, the benefit would be greatest in areas that had yet to see widespread community transmission of Covid-19, he said.

Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organisation’s health emergencies programme, also urged people not to assume the epidemic would automatically subside in the summer.

“We have to assume the virus will continue to have the capacity to spread,” he said.

“It’s a false hope to say, yes, it will disappear like the flu … we can’t make that assumption. And there is no evidence.”

Purchase the China AI Report 2020 brought to you by SCMP Research and enjoy a 20% discount (original price US$400). This 60-page all new intelligence report gives you first-hand insights and analysis into the latest industry developments and intelligence about China AI. Get exclusive access to our webinars for continuous learning, and interact with China AI executives in live Q&A. Offer valid until 31 March 2020.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Poland Implements Border Checks Amid Growing Migration Tensions
Political Dispute Escalates Between Trump and Musk
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Amazon Reaches Milestone with Deployment of One Millionth Robot
US Senate Votes to Remove AI Regulation Moratorium from Domestic Policy Bill
Yulia Putintseva Calls for Spectator Ejection at Wimbledon Over Safety Concerns
Jury Deliberations in Diddy Trial Yield Partial Verdict in Serious Criminal Charges
House Oversight Committee Subpoenas Former Jill Biden Aide Amid Investigation into Alleged Concealment of President Biden's Cognitive Health
King Charles Plans Significant Role for Prince Harry in Coronation
Two Chinese Nationals Arrested for Espionage Activities Against U.S. Navy
Amazon Reaches Major Automation Milestone with Over One Million Robots
Extreme Heat Wave Sweeps Across Europe, Hitting Record Temperatures
Meta Announces Formation of Ambitious AI Unit, Meta Superintelligence Labs
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
Trump Administration Considers Withdrawal of Funding for Hospitals Providing Gender Treatment to Minors
Texas Enacts Law Allowing Gold and Silver Transactions
China Unveils Miniature Insect-Like Surveillance Drone
OpenAI Secures Multimillion-Dollar AI Contracts with Pentagon, India, and Grab
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
Germany Votes to Suspend Family Reunification for Asylum Seekers
Elon Musk Critiques Senate Budget Proposal Over Job Losses and Strategic Risks
Los Angeles Riots ended with Federal Investigations into Funding
Budapest Pride Parade Draws 200,000 Participants Amid Government Ban
Southern Europe Experiences Extreme Heat
Xiaomi's YU7 SUV Launch Garners Record Pre-Orders Amid Market Challenges
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez's Lavish Wedding in Venice
Russia Launches Largest Air Assault on Ukraine Since Invasion
Education Secretary Announces Overhaul of Complaints System Amid Rising Parental Grievances
Massive Anti-Government Protests Erupt in Belgrade
Trump Ends Trade Talks with Canada Over Digital Services Tax
UK Government Softens Welfare Reform Plans Amid Labour Party Rebellion
Labour Faces Rebellion Over Disability Benefit Reforms Ahead of Key Vote
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez Host Lavish Wedding in Venice Amid Protests
Trump Asserts Readiness for Further Strikes on Iran Amid Nuclear Tensions
North Korea to Open New Beach Resort to Boost Tourism Economy
UK Labour Party Faces Internal Tensions Over Welfare Reforms
Andrew Cuomo Hints at Potential November Comeback Amid Democratic Primary Results
Curtis Sliwa Champions His Vision for New York City Amid Rising Crime Concerns
Federal Reserve Proposes Changes to Capital Rule Affecting Major Banks
EU TO HUNGARY: LET THEM PRIDE OR PREP FOR SHADE. ORBÁN TO EU: STAY IN YOUR LANE AND FIX YOUR OWN MESS.
Trump Escalates Criticism of Media Over Iran Strike Coverage
Trump Announces Upcoming US-Iran Meeting Amid Controversial Airstrikes
Trump Moves to Reshape Middle East Following Israel-Iran Conflict
Big Four Accounting Firms Fined in Exam Cheating Scandal
NATO Members Agree to 5% Defense Spending Target by 2035
Australia's Star Casino Secures $195 Million Rescue Package Amid Challenges
UK to Enhance Nuclear Capabilities with Acquisition of F-35A Fighter Jets
Russian Shadow Payments via Cryptocurrency Reach $9 Billion
Explosions Rock Doha as Iranian Missiles Target Qatar
“You Have 12 Hours to Flee”: Israeli Threat Campaign Targets Surviving Iranian Officials
×