London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Aug 05, 2025

Can Boris Johnson avoid a lockdown party fine?

Can Boris Johnson avoid a lockdown party fine?

Boris Johnson has until 22:00 GMT on Friday to answer the Metropolitan Police's questionnaire about whether he broke lockdown rules at Downing Street parties.

The prime minister has been consulting lawyers about his response.

It is these private lawyers who are overseeing communications with the Met Police.

Sources close to Mr Johnson say he is funding that himself. The No 10 machine is being kept in the dark to avoid what one insider called a conflict of interest.

The prime minister has made it clear what his defence will be: that he both lived and worked in Downing Street, so had a reasonable excuse to be in the building and around the garden when controversial drinks gatherings took place.

Mr Johnson hopes that will be enough to get him off the hook - if it doesn't, there could be a new wave of political crises for the prime minister and more Conservative MPs could try to force him out.

Among Mr Johnson's allies, there is a frank admission that they just don't know for sure whether his explanation will work. But here's how they think it might.

Firstly, there have not been many retrospective prosecutions for breaking lockdown laws.

Secondly, the prime minister has argued both publicly and privately that the events he was at can be reasonably seen as work. If he makes that case, will the Met have enough evidence to conclude he is wrong? The bar, some believe, is likely to be high.

Some of the argument delves a bit deeper.

Glasses of wine


It starts with the fact that the prime minister and some staff were required to be in the office to oversee the Covid response.

If they had a glass of wine at the end of the day - in an office they had a good reason to be in - was that really an illegal gathering?

Part of the answer to that, some think, might rest on just how many glasses of wine a certain person had.

The argument goes: if someone can prove they were at a gathering for a short period of time, then went to a meeting or to do something else for their job, this would still be classed as being at work.

That might be judged differently if they went on to get drunk late into the night - or, for example, if they broke the prime minister's son's swing, as has been alleged happened at one event in the Downing Street garden.

Police are investigating several gatherings in Downing Street as part of their probe


That's the thinking from some of the PM's political supporters.

His lawyers will decide what legal case to make - and then it's for the Met to decide whether they buy it. That process could take a few weeks.

Then there's the politics - what happens next?

At the moment, things are considerably calmer in the Conservative Party than they were a fortnight ago. That's in part because Parliament is on a week's holiday, meaning MPs are not meeting up to chat - and maybe even plot - about the PM's future.

There are, very broadly, three key groups:

*  Many Conservative MPs are loyal to the prime minister and it would take a lot for them to change their minds. They argue it's time to move on to bigger issues - like Ukraine and the cost of living

*  A smaller group who want Boris Johnson gone and have made their minds up. They say the prime minister has lost the trust of the public and his position is untenable

*  A group who have not made up their minds. This group matters most just now. Their reaction to any fine issued by the police would be crucial.

Former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith - an MP who knows how the party works and what the mood in Parliament is - has said it would be hard for any leader to survive having been found to have broken the rules.

Others hold a similar view.

One former cabinet minister said that if the prime minister is found to have broken the rules that he introduced, the number of MPs calling for a confidence vote is likely to increase quickly.

At least 54 MPs must write a letter to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 committee, to trigger such a vote, which could lead to a leadership contest.

But our senior Tory source also suggested the prime minister was more likely than not to find a way to get himself off the hook and last at least until May's local elections, when it could become clearer if the "partygate" rows have had an electoral impact.

'Not over'


Another MP still making their mind up agreed it was quite plausible the PM could survive, saying: "If there is anyone who could ride it out, he can."

This MP went on to argue that changes to the No 10 operation - like the new chief of staff and communications director - could help steady the ship. They argued that Mr Johnson could survive even if he gets a fine.

It's worth noting that a prime minister being found to have broken the rules they introduced would be a significant blow. Some question whether even Boris Johnson, with his reputation for defying political gravity, could get past that.

But the simple fact is, nobody knows for sure what is going to happen next.

Among Mr Johnson's staunchest allies, there is a feeling that things have cooled down. But that doesn't mean they won't heat up again.

In the words of one: "It's not passed - it's not over".

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Sydney Sweeney Registered as Republican as Controversial American Eagle Ad Sparks Debate
Trump Accuses Major Banks of Politically Motivated Account Denials and Prepares Executive Order
TikTok Removes Huda Kattan Video Over Anti-Israel Conspiracy Claims
Trump Threatens Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil Imports
German Finance Minister Criticizes Trump’s Attacks on Institutions
U.S. Proposes Visa Bond of Up to $15,000 for Some Applicants
U.S. Farmers Increase Lobbying Amid Immigration Crackdown
Elon Musk Receives $23.7 Billion Tesla Stock Award
Texas House Paralyzed After Democrats Walk Out Over Redistricting
Mexican Cartels Complicate Sheinbaum’s U.S. Security Talks
Mark Zuckerberg Declares War on the iPhone
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
OpenAI’s Bold Bet: Teaching AI to Think, Not Just Chat
Tesla Seeks Shareholder Approval for $29 Billion Compensation Package for Elon Musk
Nvidia is cutting prices on its RTX 50-series graphics cards after sales slowed and inventories piled up
Ghislaine Maxwell Transferred to Minimum-Security Prison Amid Ongoing DOJ Discussions
U.S. Tariffs Surge to Highest Levels in Nearly a Century Under Second Trump Term
Matt Taibbi Slams Media for Role in Russiagate Narrative
Pilots Call for Mental Health Support Without Stigma
All Five Trapped Miners Found Dead After El Teniente Mine Collapse
Ong Beng Seng Pleads Guilty in Corruption Case Linked to Former Singapore Transport Minister
BP’s Largest Oil and Gas Find in 25 Years Uncovered Offshore Brazil
Italy Fines Shein One Million Euros for Misleading Sustainability Claims
JPMorgan and Coinbase Unveil Partnership to Let Chase Cardholders Buy Crypto Directly
Declassified Annex Links Soros‑Affiliated Officials and Clinton Campaign to ‘Russiagate’ Narrative
UK's Online Safety Law: A Front for Censorship
Nationwide Protests Erupt in Brazil Demanding Presidential Resignation
Parents Abandon Child at Barcelona Airport Over Passport Issue
Mystery Surrounds Death of Brazilian Woman with iPhones Glued to Her Body
Bus Driver Discovers Toddler Hidden in Suitcase in New Zealand
Switzerland Celebrates 734 Years of Independence Amid Global Changes
U.S. Opens Official Investigation into Former Trump Prosecutor Jack Smith
Leaked audio of Canada's new PM Mark Carney admitting the truth about the Net Zero agenda: "We're gonna make a lot of money off of this."
China Enforces Comprehensive Ban on Cryptocurrency Activities
Absolutely 100% Realistic EVO Series Doll by EXDOLL (Chinese Company) used mainly for carnal purposes
World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab: "In this new world, we must accept... total transparency. You have to get used to it. You have to behave accordingly. But if you have nothing to hide, you shouldn't be afraid."
Meet Mufti Hamid Patel, head of Office for Standards in Education in Pakistan
George Soros tells the World Economic Forum: "President Trump is a con man and the ultimate narcissist, who wants the world to revolve around him."
Hamas are STARVING the hostages.
Decline in Tourism in Majorca Amidst Ongoing Anti-Tourism Protests
British Tourist Dies Following Hair Transplant in Turkey, Police Investigate
Poland Begins Excavation at Dziemiany After New Clue to World War II‑Era Nazi Treasure
WhatsApp Users Targeted in New Scam Involving Account Takeovers
Trump Threatens Canada with Tariffs Over Palestinian State Recognition
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Trump Sues Murdoch in “Heavyweight Bout”: Lawsuit Over Alleged Epstein Letter Sets Stage for Courtroom Showdown
Germany Enters Fiscal Crisis as Cabinet Approves €174 Billion in New Debt
×