London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025

Can Boris Johnson avoid a lockdown party fine?

Can Boris Johnson avoid a lockdown party fine?

Boris Johnson has until 22:00 GMT on Friday to answer the Metropolitan Police's questionnaire about whether he broke lockdown rules at Downing Street parties.

The prime minister has been consulting lawyers about his response.

It is these private lawyers who are overseeing communications with the Met Police.

Sources close to Mr Johnson say he is funding that himself. The No 10 machine is being kept in the dark to avoid what one insider called a conflict of interest.

The prime minister has made it clear what his defence will be: that he both lived and worked in Downing Street, so had a reasonable excuse to be in the building and around the garden when controversial drinks gatherings took place.

Mr Johnson hopes that will be enough to get him off the hook - if it doesn't, there could be a new wave of political crises for the prime minister and more Conservative MPs could try to force him out.

Among Mr Johnson's allies, there is a frank admission that they just don't know for sure whether his explanation will work. But here's how they think it might.

Firstly, there have not been many retrospective prosecutions for breaking lockdown laws.

Secondly, the prime minister has argued both publicly and privately that the events he was at can be reasonably seen as work. If he makes that case, will the Met have enough evidence to conclude he is wrong? The bar, some believe, is likely to be high.

Some of the argument delves a bit deeper.

Glasses of wine


It starts with the fact that the prime minister and some staff were required to be in the office to oversee the Covid response.

If they had a glass of wine at the end of the day - in an office they had a good reason to be in - was that really an illegal gathering?

Part of the answer to that, some think, might rest on just how many glasses of wine a certain person had.

The argument goes: if someone can prove they were at a gathering for a short period of time, then went to a meeting or to do something else for their job, this would still be classed as being at work.

That might be judged differently if they went on to get drunk late into the night - or, for example, if they broke the prime minister's son's swing, as has been alleged happened at one event in the Downing Street garden.

Police are investigating several gatherings in Downing Street as part of their probe


That's the thinking from some of the PM's political supporters.

His lawyers will decide what legal case to make - and then it's for the Met to decide whether they buy it. That process could take a few weeks.

Then there's the politics - what happens next?

At the moment, things are considerably calmer in the Conservative Party than they were a fortnight ago. That's in part because Parliament is on a week's holiday, meaning MPs are not meeting up to chat - and maybe even plot - about the PM's future.

There are, very broadly, three key groups:

*  Many Conservative MPs are loyal to the prime minister and it would take a lot for them to change their minds. They argue it's time to move on to bigger issues - like Ukraine and the cost of living

*  A smaller group who want Boris Johnson gone and have made their minds up. They say the prime minister has lost the trust of the public and his position is untenable

*  A group who have not made up their minds. This group matters most just now. Their reaction to any fine issued by the police would be crucial.

Former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith - an MP who knows how the party works and what the mood in Parliament is - has said it would be hard for any leader to survive having been found to have broken the rules.

Others hold a similar view.

One former cabinet minister said that if the prime minister is found to have broken the rules that he introduced, the number of MPs calling for a confidence vote is likely to increase quickly.

At least 54 MPs must write a letter to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 committee, to trigger such a vote, which could lead to a leadership contest.

But our senior Tory source also suggested the prime minister was more likely than not to find a way to get himself off the hook and last at least until May's local elections, when it could become clearer if the "partygate" rows have had an electoral impact.

'Not over'


Another MP still making their mind up agreed it was quite plausible the PM could survive, saying: "If there is anyone who could ride it out, he can."

This MP went on to argue that changes to the No 10 operation - like the new chief of staff and communications director - could help steady the ship. They argued that Mr Johnson could survive even if he gets a fine.

It's worth noting that a prime minister being found to have broken the rules they introduced would be a significant blow. Some question whether even Boris Johnson, with his reputation for defying political gravity, could get past that.

But the simple fact is, nobody knows for sure what is going to happen next.

Among Mr Johnson's staunchest allies, there is a feeling that things have cooled down. But that doesn't mean they won't heat up again.

In the words of one: "It's not passed - it's not over".

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
US Administration Under President Donald Trump Reportedly Lifts Ban on Ukraine’s Use of Storm Shadow Missiles Against Russia
‘Frightening’ First Night in Prison for Sarkozy: Inmates Riot and Shout ‘Little Nicolas’
White House Announces No Imminent Summit Between Trump and Putin
US and Qatar Warn EU of Trade and Energy Risks from Tough Climate Regulation
Apple Challenges EU Digital Markets Act Crackdown in Landmark Court Battle
Nicolas Sarkozy begins five-year prison term at La Santé in Paris
Japan stocks surge to record as Sanae Takaichi becomes Prime Minister
This Is How the 'Heist of the Century' Was Carried Out at the Louvre in Seven Minutes: France Humiliated as Crown with 2,000 Diamonds Vanishes
China Warns UK of ‘Consequences’ After Delay to London Embassy Approval
France’s Wealthy Shift Billions to Luxembourg and Switzerland Amid Tax and Political Turmoil
"Sniper Position": Observation Post Targeting 'Air Force One' Found Before Trump’s Arrival in Florida
Shouting Match at the White House: 'Trump Cursed, Threw Maps, and Told Zelensky – "Putin Will Destroy You"'
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
×