Sir Niall Ferguson Says World Should Watch Argentina Under President Milei
Ferguson describes Argentine economic overhaul under Javier Milei as a globally instructive case
Sir Niall Ferguson, historian and economic commentator, has stated that the world should observe Argentina's political and economic developments under President Javier Milei, citing Milei’s blend of pragmatism and ideological commitment.
Ferguson described Milei as a dissident within the economics profession, combining idealism with effective policymaking, and asserted that global observers have much to learn from Argentina’s reforms.
Ferguson noted that Milei, president since December 10, 2023, emerged amid spiralling inflation and fiscal instability.
He described Milei’s approach as a form of “shock therapy” aimed at liberalising the economy, reducing state intervention, and restoring confidence in public finances .
Under Milei's early tenure, the government eliminated the fiscal deficit—reducing it from around 5 percent of GDP to zero—and consolidated the number of ministries from 18 to eight within approximately 20 months in office .
Reforms included deregulation of property rentals, commercial airlines, and freight transport, along with labour market adjustments and structural changes to replace Argentina’s tax agency with a slimmer alternative .
Ferguson highlighted a sharp decline in monthly inflation, noting a fall from approximately 13 percent to around 2 percent, concurrent with annual economic growth estimated at 7 percent.
He cited a marked rise in investor confidence, as evidenced by strong performance of Argentine bonds and equities .
Ferguson contrasted these achievements with Argentina’s preceding economic trajectory: declining per capita GDP, repeated fiscal deficits, outdated economic institutions, and an IMF debt burden of approximately 90 percent of GDP under multiple financing programmes .
Ferguson described Milei as the world’s most radically libertarian government, observing that the success of his economic shock measures also translated into political capital for the president and his La Libertad Avanza party, as shown by domestic electoral victories in municipal and provincial contests ahead of mid‑2025 national elections .
Ferguson warned of possible reversal risks tied to political opposition in Argentina’s Congress.
Legislators aligned with Peronist and other opposition factions have proposed measures including pension increases and expanded regional spending, which could offset fiscal gains .
Ferguson’s remarks were made during a recent visit to Argentina, where he met with President Milei and senior officials.
He emphasised that the nation presents a rare case of large-scale libertarian reform being implemented rapidly in a contemporary democracy, and said its experience may hold lessons for other countries contemplating economic liberalisation under conditions of crisis .
Observers have noted that Argentina’s broader political landscape includes public protests in early 2024 in response to salary cuts, ministry closures, and major structural reforms.
These demonstrations occurred during the parliamentary passage of Milei’s reform package in June 2024, when police clashed with demonstrators in Buenos Aires and arrests were made .
Argentina’s economy recorded its first budget surplus in over a decade while simultaneously pursuing deregulation, labour reform, and debt restructuring.
Inflation declined from historic highs above 200 percent in late 2023 and early 2024 to under 50 percent by mid‑2025.
Poverty rates, after peaking above 50 percent early in Milei’s term, declined to approximately 38 percent by the third quarter of 2024 .
Ferguson asserted that Milei’s combination of ideological conviction and practical policymaking positions Argentina as a case study with potentially global relevance for economic reformers.
Ferguson described Milei as a dissident within the economics profession, combining idealism with effective policymaking, and asserted that global observers have much to learn from Argentina’s reforms.
Ferguson noted that Milei, president since December 10, 2023, emerged amid spiralling inflation and fiscal instability.
He described Milei’s approach as a form of “shock therapy” aimed at liberalising the economy, reducing state intervention, and restoring confidence in public finances .
Under Milei's early tenure, the government eliminated the fiscal deficit—reducing it from around 5 percent of GDP to zero—and consolidated the number of ministries from 18 to eight within approximately 20 months in office .
Reforms included deregulation of property rentals, commercial airlines, and freight transport, along with labour market adjustments and structural changes to replace Argentina’s tax agency with a slimmer alternative .
Ferguson highlighted a sharp decline in monthly inflation, noting a fall from approximately 13 percent to around 2 percent, concurrent with annual economic growth estimated at 7 percent.
He cited a marked rise in investor confidence, as evidenced by strong performance of Argentine bonds and equities .
Ferguson contrasted these achievements with Argentina’s preceding economic trajectory: declining per capita GDP, repeated fiscal deficits, outdated economic institutions, and an IMF debt burden of approximately 90 percent of GDP under multiple financing programmes .
Ferguson described Milei as the world’s most radically libertarian government, observing that the success of his economic shock measures also translated into political capital for the president and his La Libertad Avanza party, as shown by domestic electoral victories in municipal and provincial contests ahead of mid‑2025 national elections .
Ferguson warned of possible reversal risks tied to political opposition in Argentina’s Congress.
Legislators aligned with Peronist and other opposition factions have proposed measures including pension increases and expanded regional spending, which could offset fiscal gains .
Ferguson’s remarks were made during a recent visit to Argentina, where he met with President Milei and senior officials.
He emphasised that the nation presents a rare case of large-scale libertarian reform being implemented rapidly in a contemporary democracy, and said its experience may hold lessons for other countries contemplating economic liberalisation under conditions of crisis .
Observers have noted that Argentina’s broader political landscape includes public protests in early 2024 in response to salary cuts, ministry closures, and major structural reforms.
These demonstrations occurred during the parliamentary passage of Milei’s reform package in June 2024, when police clashed with demonstrators in Buenos Aires and arrests were made .
Argentina’s economy recorded its first budget surplus in over a decade while simultaneously pursuing deregulation, labour reform, and debt restructuring.
Inflation declined from historic highs above 200 percent in late 2023 and early 2024 to under 50 percent by mid‑2025.
Poverty rates, after peaking above 50 percent early in Milei’s term, declined to approximately 38 percent by the third quarter of 2024 .
Ferguson asserted that Milei’s combination of ideological conviction and practical policymaking positions Argentina as a case study with potentially global relevance for economic reformers.
