London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025

Brexit: What would no deal mean?

Brexit: What would no deal mean?

Talks are continuing between the UK and the European Union about a deal on their future relationship.

But the two sides say the conditions for an agreement are still "not there" - so, the discussions could end with no deal.

What would no deal mean?


It would mean significant changes to the way we live and work.

Prices could go up for the goods the UK buys and sells from and to the EU. That's because the UK and EU would trade on World Trade Organization (WTO) terms - the basic rules for countries without trade deals.

The EU would impose taxes (known as tariffs) on goods coming from the UK. The average is about 2.8% for non-agricultural products, but 10% for cars and more than 35% for dairy products. That would put some industries under pressure.

With the UK imposing tariffs on some EU goods - they could become more expensive. But the price of some things imported from the rest of the world could fall because their tariffs are being cut.

Food standards for UK exports could also be a problem. Without agreement that UK rules are acceptable in the EU, produce being sold by the UK could be stopped at the border, causing delays.



Long queues for lorries are possible because there would be more border checks. The UK is delaying having full checks for goods arriving from the EU until 1 July. But it is feared EU lorry drivers might want to avoid the UK altogether if there are long delays.

Less choice of food is a danger, according to some supermarket chains, who have said fresh food will be particularly affected. They might try to fly replacements in from elsewhere, but that would increase costs.

Northern Ireland is the subject of separate talks on how an agreement to avoid a hard border would work, but a free trade deal would have made them much easier.

It's not just trade that would be affected by no deal, as further details were expected in other areas.

Fishing has been particularly important during the trade talks. Without a deal, non-UK fishing boats would lose access to UK waters and vice versa. It is feared there could be confrontations if boats try to continue to fish where they have traditionally done so. There are also concerns UK fish exports to the EU would be badly hit by tariffs.



Co-operation on security and data-sharing will become more difficult, causing problems for cross-border investigations. The UK would immediately lose access to databases of things like fingerprints, criminal records and wanted persons.

There are big questions about services. The UK has been waiting for a decision about whether the EU will recognise UK rules for financial services. Without that it will be difficult for UK firms to operate in the EU. Some banks have already moved offices and staff to EU countries.

The supply of medicines could be vulnerable to disruption at Channel ports, with particular worries about those with a short shelf life. There are plans in place to ensure coronavirus vaccines reach the UK.

Other deals were also possible


Talks separate to the main trade deal were also being worked on. They cover areas including:

Healthcare: The government was in talks for a healthcare arrangement that would replace EHIC, which helps people in need of treatment in EU countries.

Education: It was also in talks about the possibility of continuing to participate in Erasmus, which helps students study in other countries.



Driving: EU countries have decided UK nationals will not need International Driving Permits for short visits. But the European Commission is understood to be considering whether green cards to prove people have valid insurance are required.

Pensions: There has not yet been an agreement for people claiming their UK state pensions in an EU country that would mean their pensions increase every year.

Pets: We do not yet know whether the UK will be a listed country for a new type of pet passports. It could mean you need to get your pet examined by a vet each time you travel.

What happens next if there is no trade deal?


If the UK gets to the end of the year without a trade deal with the EU, that does not mean there will never be one.

It has been suggested all the problems it would cause for both sides would focus minds on reaching a deal as soon as possible.


The UK and the EU may not be able to reach a trade deal


But there are those on both sides who say it could be many months into 2021 before talks were to resume in this scenario.

Some things are going to change anyway


Whether or not there is a trade deal, several things will change on 1 January.

Trips to Europe will involve more preparation. You'll have to make sure there is at least six months left on your passport and wait in a different queue at the border.

Duty free shopping will return, but there will be limits on the amount of alcohol and tobacco you can bring into the UK from the EU.

The right to live and work in the EU will no longer be automatic for UK nationals, unless they already live in an EU country by the end of 2020.

A new immigration system will come into force in the UK, involving a points-based system for people wanting to work.

Trade with the EU for UK companies will involve customs declarations, certificates, licences and special labelling for some types of foods, plants and live animals.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Apple Challenges EU Digital Markets Act Crackdown in Landmark Court Battle
Nicolas Sarkozy begins five-year prison term at La Santé in Paris
Japan stocks surge to record as Sanae Takaichi becomes Prime Minister
This Is How the 'Heist of the Century' Was Carried Out at the Louvre in Seven Minutes: France Humiliated as Crown with 2,000 Diamonds Vanishes
China Warns UK of ‘Consequences’ After Delay to London Embassy Approval
France’s Wealthy Shift Billions to Luxembourg and Switzerland Amid Tax and Political Turmoil
"Sniper Position": Observation Post Targeting 'Air Force One' Found Before Trump’s Arrival in Florida
Shouting Match at the White House: 'Trump Cursed, Threw Maps, and Told Zelensky – "Putin Will Destroy You"'
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
Dutch Government Seizes Chipmaker After U.S. Presses for Removal of Chinese CEO
Bessent Accuses China of Dragging Down Global Economy Amid New Trade Curbs
U.S. Revokes Visas of Foreign Nationals Who ‘Celebrated’ Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
AI and Cybersecurity at Forefront as GITEX Global 2025 Kicks Off in Dubai
×