London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jan 15, 2026

Brexit: What would no deal mean?

Brexit: What would no deal mean?

Talks are continuing between the UK and the European Union about a deal on their future relationship.

But the two sides say the conditions for an agreement are still "not there" - so, the discussions could end with no deal.

What would no deal mean?


It would mean significant changes to the way we live and work.

Prices could go up for the goods the UK buys and sells from and to the EU. That's because the UK and EU would trade on World Trade Organization (WTO) terms - the basic rules for countries without trade deals.

The EU would impose taxes (known as tariffs) on goods coming from the UK. The average is about 2.8% for non-agricultural products, but 10% for cars and more than 35% for dairy products. That would put some industries under pressure.

With the UK imposing tariffs on some EU goods - they could become more expensive. But the price of some things imported from the rest of the world could fall because their tariffs are being cut.

Food standards for UK exports could also be a problem. Without agreement that UK rules are acceptable in the EU, produce being sold by the UK could be stopped at the border, causing delays.



Long queues for lorries are possible because there would be more border checks. The UK is delaying having full checks for goods arriving from the EU until 1 July. But it is feared EU lorry drivers might want to avoid the UK altogether if there are long delays.

Less choice of food is a danger, according to some supermarket chains, who have said fresh food will be particularly affected. They might try to fly replacements in from elsewhere, but that would increase costs.

Northern Ireland is the subject of separate talks on how an agreement to avoid a hard border would work, but a free trade deal would have made them much easier.

It's not just trade that would be affected by no deal, as further details were expected in other areas.

Fishing has been particularly important during the trade talks. Without a deal, non-UK fishing boats would lose access to UK waters and vice versa. It is feared there could be confrontations if boats try to continue to fish where they have traditionally done so. There are also concerns UK fish exports to the EU would be badly hit by tariffs.



Co-operation on security and data-sharing will become more difficult, causing problems for cross-border investigations. The UK would immediately lose access to databases of things like fingerprints, criminal records and wanted persons.

There are big questions about services. The UK has been waiting for a decision about whether the EU will recognise UK rules for financial services. Without that it will be difficult for UK firms to operate in the EU. Some banks have already moved offices and staff to EU countries.

The supply of medicines could be vulnerable to disruption at Channel ports, with particular worries about those with a short shelf life. There are plans in place to ensure coronavirus vaccines reach the UK.

Other deals were also possible


Talks separate to the main trade deal were also being worked on. They cover areas including:

Healthcare: The government was in talks for a healthcare arrangement that would replace EHIC, which helps people in need of treatment in EU countries.

Education: It was also in talks about the possibility of continuing to participate in Erasmus, which helps students study in other countries.



Driving: EU countries have decided UK nationals will not need International Driving Permits for short visits. But the European Commission is understood to be considering whether green cards to prove people have valid insurance are required.

Pensions: There has not yet been an agreement for people claiming their UK state pensions in an EU country that would mean their pensions increase every year.

Pets: We do not yet know whether the UK will be a listed country for a new type of pet passports. It could mean you need to get your pet examined by a vet each time you travel.

What happens next if there is no trade deal?


If the UK gets to the end of the year without a trade deal with the EU, that does not mean there will never be one.

It has been suggested all the problems it would cause for both sides would focus minds on reaching a deal as soon as possible.


The UK and the EU may not be able to reach a trade deal


But there are those on both sides who say it could be many months into 2021 before talks were to resume in this scenario.

Some things are going to change anyway


Whether or not there is a trade deal, several things will change on 1 January.

Trips to Europe will involve more preparation. You'll have to make sure there is at least six months left on your passport and wait in a different queue at the border.

Duty free shopping will return, but there will be limits on the amount of alcohol and tobacco you can bring into the UK from the EU.

The right to live and work in the EU will no longer be automatic for UK nationals, unless they already live in an EU country by the end of 2020.

A new immigration system will come into force in the UK, involving a points-based system for people wanting to work.

Trade with the EU for UK companies will involve customs declarations, certificates, licences and special labelling for some types of foods, plants and live animals.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Launches First-Ever ‘Town of Culture’ Competition to Celebrate Local Stories and Boost Communities
Planned Sale of Shell and Exxon’s UK Gas Assets to Viaro Energy Collapses Amid Regulatory and Market Hurdles
UK Intensifies Arctic Security Engagement as Trump’s Greenland Rhetoric Fuels Allied Concern
Meghan Markle Could Return to the UK for the First Time in Nearly Four Years If Security Is Secured
Meghan Markle Likely to Return to UK Only if Harry Secures Official Security Cover
UAE Restricts Funding for Emiratis to Study in UK Amid Fears Over Muslim Brotherhood Influence
EU Seeks ‘Farage Clause’ in Brexit Reset Talks to Safeguard Long-Term Agreement Stability
Starmer’s Push to Rally Support for Action Against Elon Musk’s X Faces Setback as Canada Shuns Ban
UK Free School Meals Expansion Faces Political and Budgetary Delays
EU Seeks ‘Farage Clause’ in Brexit Reset Talks With Britain
Germany Hit by Major Airport Strikes Disrupting European Travel
Prince Harry Seeks King Charles’ Support to Open Invictus Games on UK Return
Washington Holds Back as Britain and France Signal Willingness to Deploy Troops in Postwar Ukraine
Elon Musk Accuses UK Government of Suppressing Free Speech as X Faces Potential Ban Over AI-Generated Content
Russia Deploys Hypersonic Missile in Strike on Ukraine
OpenAI and SoftBank Commit One Billion Dollars to Energy and Data Centre Supplier
UK Prime Minister Starmer Reaffirms Support for Danish Sovereignty Over Greenland Amid U.S. Pressure
UK Support Bolsters U.S. Seizure of Russian-Flagged Tanker Marinera in Atlantic Strike on Sanctions Evasion
The Claim That Maduro’s Capture and Trial Violate International Law Is Either Legally Illiterate—or Deliberately Deceptive
UK Data Watchdog Probes Elon Musk’s X Over AI-Generated Grok Images Amid Surge in Non-Consensual Outputs
Prince Harry to Return to UK for Court Hearing Without Plans to Meet King Charles III
UK Confirms Support for US Seizure of Russian-Flagged Oil Tanker in North Atlantic
Béla Tarr, Visionary Hungarian Filmmaker, Dies at Seventy After Long Illness
UK and France Pledge Military Hubs Across Ukraine in Post-Ceasefire Security Plan
Prince Harry Poised to Regain UK Security Cover, Clearing Way for Family Visits
UK Junk Food Advertising Ban Faces Major Loophole Allowing Brand-Only Promotions
Maduro’s Arrest Without The Hague Tests International Law—and Trump’s Willingness to Break It
German Intelligence Secretly Intercepted Obama’s Air Force One Communications
The U.S. State Department’s account in Persian: “President Trump is a man of action. If you didn’t know it until now, now you do—do not play games with President Trump.”
Fake Mainstream Media Double Standard: Elon Musk Versus Mamdani
HSBC Leads 2026 Mortgage Rate Cuts as UK Lending Costs Ease
US Joint Chiefs Chairman Outlines How Operation Absolute Resolve Was Carried Out in Venezuela
Starmer Welcomes End of Maduro Era While Stressing International Law and UK Non-Involvement
Korean Beauty Turns Viral Skincare Into a Global Export Engine
UK Confirms Non-Involvement in U.S. Military Action Against Venezuela
UK Terror Watchdog Calls for Australian-Style Social Media Ban to Protect Teenagers
Iranian Protests Intensify as Another Revolutionary Guard Member Is Killed and Khamenei Blames the West
Delta Force Identified as Unit Behind U.S. Operation That Captured Venezuela’s President
Europe’s Luxury Sanctions Punish Russian Consumers While a Sanctions-Circumvention Industry Thrives
Berkshire’s Buffett-to-Abel Transition Tests Whether a One-Man Trust Model Can Survive as a System
Fraud in European Central Bank: Lagarde’s Hidden Pay Premium Exposes a Transparency Crisis at the European Central Bank
Trump Announces U.S. Large-Scale Strike on Venezuela, Declares President Maduro and Wife Captured
Tesla Loses EV Crown to China’s BYD After Annual Deliveries Decline in 2025
UK Manufacturing Growth Reaches 15-Month Peak as Output and Orders Improve in December
Beijing Threatened to Scrap UK–China Trade Talks After British Minister’s Taiwan Visit
Newly Released Files Reveal Tony Blair Pressured Officials Over Iraq Death Case Involving UK Soldiers
Top Stocks and Themes to Watch in 2026 as Markets Enter New Year with Fresh Momentum
No UK Curfew Ordered as Deepfake TikTok Falsely Attributes Decree to Prime Minister Starmer
Europe’s Largest Defence Groups Set to Return Nearly Five Billion Dollars to Shareholders in Twenty Twenty-Five
Abu Dhabi ‘Capital of Capital’: How Abu Dhabi Rose as a Sovereign Wealth Power
×