Brexit Reshaped UK Migration Patterns Compared with Germany as Flows Reorient Rather Than Decline
New evidence shows EU migration to the UK contracted sharply after Brexit while non-EU migration expanded, contrasting with more stable German patterns
Brexit has fundamentally altered migration flows into and out of the United Kingdom, producing structural shifts that are apparent when benchmarked against Germany, one of Europe’s largest destination countries for migrants.
Recent research comparing the two countries finds that the end of free movement in 2021 did not simply reduce net migration to the UK but reconfigured the origins, destinations and characteristics of migrant flows.
Prior to Brexit, freedom of movement under European Union rules facilitated substantial and mostly balanced migration between the UK and other EU member states.
Since the UK formally exited the EU and ended free movement arrangements, EU inflows to the UK have contracted sharply, while non-EU migration—particularly for work and study—has grown significantly under the new points-based visa system.
By contrast, Germany, which remains in the EU’s free movement area, has experienced more stable migration patterns from within the European Union, with variations driven by economic conditions and demographic demand rather than institutional shocks.
The reorientation of UK migration flows has been documented using a difference-in-differences approach that exploits Germany as a benchmark for stable EU migration trends.
The analysis shows that while EU net migration to the UK fell markedly after the referendum and again after free movement ended, the UK’s overall net migration did not decline as policymakers had aimed; instead, globally sourced, skill-selective immigration expanded.
At the same time, there has been a modest but notable rise in emigration of UK-born citizens relative to Germany, reflecting increased friction and reduced mobility for British nationals following Brexit.
The study concludes that Brexit acted as a structural regime shock—transforming the composition and direction of migration flows rather than simply serving as a border-tightening event.
This shift carries implications for labour markets, demographic trends and bilateral cooperation on migration policy between the UK and EU states.
Current official migration statistics also show that although EU migration into the UK has declined, the country still attracts significant numbers of migrants for work, study and family reasons.
Net migration to the UK remained elevated in 2025, with much of the inflow coming from outside the European Union and contributing to labour market needs in key sectors.
In contrast, Germany continues to draw migrants both from within the EU and globally to address its own demographic challenges, benefiting from the free movement framework that facilitates intra-European mobility.
The comparison underscores how differing institutional contexts—post-Brexit immigration controls in the UK versus continued EU free movement in Germany—have shaped distinct migration landscapes in the two countries.
Recent research comparing the two countries finds that the end of free movement in 2021 did not simply reduce net migration to the UK but reconfigured the origins, destinations and characteristics of migrant flows.
Prior to Brexit, freedom of movement under European Union rules facilitated substantial and mostly balanced migration between the UK and other EU member states.
Since the UK formally exited the EU and ended free movement arrangements, EU inflows to the UK have contracted sharply, while non-EU migration—particularly for work and study—has grown significantly under the new points-based visa system.
By contrast, Germany, which remains in the EU’s free movement area, has experienced more stable migration patterns from within the European Union, with variations driven by economic conditions and demographic demand rather than institutional shocks.
The reorientation of UK migration flows has been documented using a difference-in-differences approach that exploits Germany as a benchmark for stable EU migration trends.
The analysis shows that while EU net migration to the UK fell markedly after the referendum and again after free movement ended, the UK’s overall net migration did not decline as policymakers had aimed; instead, globally sourced, skill-selective immigration expanded.
At the same time, there has been a modest but notable rise in emigration of UK-born citizens relative to Germany, reflecting increased friction and reduced mobility for British nationals following Brexit.
The study concludes that Brexit acted as a structural regime shock—transforming the composition and direction of migration flows rather than simply serving as a border-tightening event.
This shift carries implications for labour markets, demographic trends and bilateral cooperation on migration policy between the UK and EU states.
Current official migration statistics also show that although EU migration into the UK has declined, the country still attracts significant numbers of migrants for work, study and family reasons.
Net migration to the UK remained elevated in 2025, with much of the inflow coming from outside the European Union and contributing to labour market needs in key sectors.
In contrast, Germany continues to draw migrants both from within the EU and globally to address its own demographic challenges, benefiting from the free movement framework that facilitates intra-European mobility.
The comparison underscores how differing institutional contexts—post-Brexit immigration controls in the UK versus continued EU free movement in Germany—have shaped distinct migration landscapes in the two countries.
