London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 11, 2025

Bank of England's Pill says latest UK data is disappointing

Bank of England's Pill says latest UK data is disappointing

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Thursday that the latest data on the economy, including a stagnation of gross domestic product in February, is "somewhat disappointing" even if it remains better than forecast by the BoE late last year.
Pill, speaking at an online event hosted by MNI Connect, said GDP data published earlier on Thursday and other measures of output were relatively flat and at levels close to pre-pandemic levels.

"That is of course somewhat disappointing from an overall point of view, but I think it is important to recognise that that profile is much better than what we had in the MPC's forecasts in the second half of last year," he said.

Last month the BoE raised its key interest rate to 4.25% from 4% - its 11th consecutive rate rise since starting to tighten policy in December 2021 - and financial markets see a roughly 64% chance of a further rate rise to 4.5% in May.

Pill - one of the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) nine members - also said inflation may be "bumpier than we expect" but was still expected to fall in the second quarter as last year's surge in energy prices drops out of annual comparisons.

British consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February and last week Pill said the central bank still needed to "see the job through" on monetary policy tightening, though he did not directly commit to a further rate rise in May.

The BoE has also highlighted how the economy has yet to feel the full force of its past interest rate rises, and two of its policymakers think the central bank has already over-tightened.

However, Pill said it was wrong to focus on BoE forecasts which show inflation well below 2% in two years' time - a metric which the central bank has often used in the past as a signal that policy is too tight.

"I think that framework is a little simplistic," he said.

Instead, policymakers needed to consider the risk that recent very high inflation had broken the linear relationships between economic variables which the BoE's main forecasting models are based on, he said.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its outlook for Britain's economy but still expects it will contract more this year than in any other major Western economy.

In his comments on Thursday, Pill said British wage growth appeared to be slowing and that the inflation-neutral level of unemployment was probably higher than before the coronavirus pandemic.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
ChatGPT CEO signals policy to alert authorities over suicidal youth after teen’s death
The British legal mafia hit back: Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
Surpassing Musk: Larry Ellison becomes the richest man in the world
Embarrassment for Starmer: He fired the ambassador photographed on Epstein’s 'pedophile island'
Manhunt after 'skilled sniper' shot Charlie Kirk. Footage: Suspect running on rooftop during panic
Effective Protest Results: Nepal’s Prime Minister Resigns as Youth-Led Unrest Shakes the Nation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
King Charles and Prince Harry Share First In-Person Moment in 19 Months
Starmer Establishes Economic ‘Budget Board’ to Centralise Policy and Rebuild Business Trust
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Brazilian police say ex-President Bolsonaro had planned to flee to Argentina seeking asylum
Trinidad Leader Applauds U.S. Naval Strike and Advocates Forceful Action Against Traffickers
Kim Jong Un Oversees Final Test of New High-Thrust Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to pause billions in foreign aid
Charlie Sheen says his father, Martin Sheen, turned him in to the police: 'The greatest betrayal possible'
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
Pig Heads Left Outside Multiple Paris Mosques in Outrage-Inducing Acts
Nvidia’s ‘Wow’ Factor Is Fading. The AI chip giant used to beat Wall Street expectations for earnings by a substantial margin. That trajectory is coming down to earth.
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
On the Anniversary of Queen Elizabeth’s Death: Prince Harry Returns to Britain
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Murdoch Family Finalises $3.3 Billion Succession Pact, Ensuring Eldest Son’s Leadership
Big Oil Slashes Jobs and Investments Amid Prolonged Low Crude Prices
Court Staff Cover Up Banksy Image of Judge Beating a Protester
Social Media Access Curtailed in Turkey After CHP Calls for Rallies Following Police Blockade of Istanbul Headquarters
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
Elon Musk Poised to Become First Trillionaire Under Ambitious Tesla Pay Plan
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
Burning the Minister’s House Helped Protesters to Win Justice: Prabowo Fires Finance Minister in Wake of Indonesia Protests
Brazil Braces for Fallout from Bolsonaro Trial by corrupted judge
The Country That Got Too Rich? Public Spending Dominates Norway Election
Nearly 40 Years Later: Nike Changes the Legendary Slogan Just Do It
Generations Born After 1939 Unlikely to Reach Age One Hundred, New Study Finds
End to a four-year manhunt in New Zealand: the father who abducted his children to the forests was killed, the three siblings were found
Germany Suspends Debt Rules, Funnels €500 Billion Toward Military and Proxy War Strategy
EU Prepares for War
BMW Eyes Growth in China with New All‑Electric Neue Klasse Lineup
Trump Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs After EU Imposes €2.95 Billion Fine on Google
Tesla Board Proposes Unprecedented One-Trillion-Dollar Performance Package for Elon Musk
US Justice Department Launches Criminal Mortgage-Fraud Probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
Escalating Drug Trafficking and Violence in Latin America: A Growing Crisis
US and Taiwanese Defence Officials Held Secret Talks in Alaska
Report: Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission in North Korea Ordered by Trump in 2019 Ended in Failure
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Florida Murder Case: The Adelson Family, the Killing of Dan Markel, and the Trial of Donna Adelson
×