London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025

Bank of England's Pill says latest UK data is disappointing

Bank of England's Pill says latest UK data is disappointing

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Thursday that the latest data on the economy, including a stagnation of gross domestic product in February, is "somewhat disappointing" even if it remains better than forecast by the BoE late last year.
Pill, speaking at an online event hosted by MNI Connect, said GDP data published earlier on Thursday and other measures of output were relatively flat and at levels close to pre-pandemic levels.

"That is of course somewhat disappointing from an overall point of view, but I think it is important to recognise that that profile is much better than what we had in the MPC's forecasts in the second half of last year," he said.

Last month the BoE raised its key interest rate to 4.25% from 4% - its 11th consecutive rate rise since starting to tighten policy in December 2021 - and financial markets see a roughly 64% chance of a further rate rise to 4.5% in May.

Pill - one of the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) nine members - also said inflation may be "bumpier than we expect" but was still expected to fall in the second quarter as last year's surge in energy prices drops out of annual comparisons.

British consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February and last week Pill said the central bank still needed to "see the job through" on monetary policy tightening, though he did not directly commit to a further rate rise in May.

The BoE has also highlighted how the economy has yet to feel the full force of its past interest rate rises, and two of its policymakers think the central bank has already over-tightened.

However, Pill said it was wrong to focus on BoE forecasts which show inflation well below 2% in two years' time - a metric which the central bank has often used in the past as a signal that policy is too tight.

"I think that framework is a little simplistic," he said.

Instead, policymakers needed to consider the risk that recent very high inflation had broken the linear relationships between economic variables which the BoE's main forecasting models are based on, he said.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its outlook for Britain's economy but still expects it will contract more this year than in any other major Western economy.

In his comments on Thursday, Pill said British wage growth appeared to be slowing and that the inflation-neutral level of unemployment was probably higher than before the coronavirus pandemic.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
×