London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 22, 2025

Bank of England's Pill says latest UK data is disappointing

Bank of England's Pill says latest UK data is disappointing

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Thursday that the latest data on the economy, including a stagnation of gross domestic product in February, is "somewhat disappointing" even if it remains better than forecast by the BoE late last year.
Pill, speaking at an online event hosted by MNI Connect, said GDP data published earlier on Thursday and other measures of output were relatively flat and at levels close to pre-pandemic levels.

"That is of course somewhat disappointing from an overall point of view, but I think it is important to recognise that that profile is much better than what we had in the MPC's forecasts in the second half of last year," he said.

Last month the BoE raised its key interest rate to 4.25% from 4% - its 11th consecutive rate rise since starting to tighten policy in December 2021 - and financial markets see a roughly 64% chance of a further rate rise to 4.5% in May.

Pill - one of the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) nine members - also said inflation may be "bumpier than we expect" but was still expected to fall in the second quarter as last year's surge in energy prices drops out of annual comparisons.

British consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February and last week Pill said the central bank still needed to "see the job through" on monetary policy tightening, though he did not directly commit to a further rate rise in May.

The BoE has also highlighted how the economy has yet to feel the full force of its past interest rate rises, and two of its policymakers think the central bank has already over-tightened.

However, Pill said it was wrong to focus on BoE forecasts which show inflation well below 2% in two years' time - a metric which the central bank has often used in the past as a signal that policy is too tight.

"I think that framework is a little simplistic," he said.

Instead, policymakers needed to consider the risk that recent very high inflation had broken the linear relationships between economic variables which the BoE's main forecasting models are based on, he said.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its outlook for Britain's economy but still expects it will contract more this year than in any other major Western economy.

In his comments on Thursday, Pill said British wage growth appeared to be slowing and that the inflation-neutral level of unemployment was probably higher than before the coronavirus pandemic.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
After 200,000 Orders in 2 Minutes: Xiaomi Accelerates Marketing in Europe
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
New York Appeals Court Voids Nearly $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Against Trump While Upholding Fraud Liability
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
Child-free hotels spark controversy
North Korea is where this 95-year-old wants to die. South Korea won’t let him go. Is this our ally or a human rights enemy?
Hong Kong Launches Regulatory Regime and Trials for HKD-Backed Stablecoins
China rehearses September 3 Victory Day parade as imagery points to ‘loyal wingman’ FH-97 family presence
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
MSNBC Rebrands as MS NOW Amid Comcast’s Cable Spin-Off
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
Finnish MP Dies by Suicide in Parliament Building
Outrage in the Tennis World After Jannik Sinner’s Withdrawal Storm
William and Kate Are Moving House – and the New Neighbors Were Evicted
Class Action Lawsuit Against Volkswagen: Steering Wheel Switches Cause Accidents
Taylor Swift on the Way to the Super Bowl? All the Clues Stirring Up Fans
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Apple Expands Social Media Presence in China With RedNote Account Ahead of iPhone 17 Launch
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Cambridge Dictionary Adds 'Skibidi,' 'Delulu,' and 'Tradwife' Amid Surge of Online Slang
Bill Barr Testifies No Evidence Implicated Trump in Epstein Case; DOJ Set to Release Records
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
The CEO Who Replaced 80% of Employees for the AI Revolution: "I Would Do It Again"
Emails Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Character.ai Bets on Future of AI Companionship
China Ramps Up Tax Crackdown on Overseas Investments
Japanese Office Furniture Maker Expands into Bomb Shelter Market
Intel Shares Surge on Possible U.S. Government Investment
Hurricane Erin Threatens U.S. East Coast with Dangerous Surf
EU Blocks Trade Statement Over Digital Rule Dispute
EU Sends Record Aid as Spain Battles Wildfires
JPMorgan Plans New Canary Wharf Tower
Zelenskyy and his allies say they will press Trump on security guarantees
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Escalating Clashes in Serbia as Anti-Government Protests Spread Nationwide
The Drought in Britain and the Strange Request from the Government to Delete Old Emails
Category 5 Hurricane in the Caribbean: 'Catastrophic Storm' with Winds of 255 km/h
"No, Thanks": The Mathematical Genius Who Turned Down 1.5 Billion Dollars from Zuckerberg
The surprising hero, the ugly incident, and the criticism despite victory: "Liverpool’s defense exposed in full"
Digital Humans Move Beyond Sci-Fi: From Virtual DJs to AI Customer Agents
YouTube will start using AI to guess your age. If it’s wrong, you’ll have to prove it
×