London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025

As other cities go into lockdown, why isn’t London having a second wave?

As other cities go into lockdown, why isn’t London having a second wave?

Experts suggest the capital’s previous exposure, and capacity to embrace home working, may now be inhibiting the virus

It is a question that puzzles both those on the front line fighting Covid 19 and the experts developing strategies to combat its next move: why has London not seen a second flare-up when other parts of the UK are now having to introduce new lockdown restrictions?

“It’s a bit of an enigma, given that London very definitely led during the initial peak,” said Professor David Alexander, who is based at the Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction at University College London.

Six months ago, the capital was hit hard and hit first by the pandemic. Wards were converted to treat Covid-19 patients and a temporary hospital was opened in London’s Docklands amid concerns that the capital’s health system would collapse.

But talk to doctors who were re-purposed to fight the pandemic back then and the picture now is very different.

“We are pretty much totally back to normal and we’ve virtually no Covid cases at the moment,” said one doctor at a north London hospital, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

It is a broadly similar picture across all of London’s 32 boroughs, where the number of cases per 100,000 people last week ranged from 5.7 in Bromley to a high of 17.9 in Kensington and Chelsea. That compares with recent totals of 37.3 per 100,000 in Manchester, 28.7 in Leeds and 27.8 in Birmingham, the first and last of which have had new restrictions imposed.

Richard Harris, professor of quantitative social geography at the University of Bristol, notes that many of these areas share a characteristic that is not so common in London. “Regional economic factors may be playing a part – the jobs people are working in,” Harris said. “It may be that blue-collar workers in manufacturing are more exposed.”

In contrast, it is possible that more people in London have been able to work from home or have been furloughed, limiting their exposure.

“London is much bigger, more diverse, has more contacts with the outside world – more people pass through it, and so forth – and so you would expect that situation [further flare-ups] to persist in some form, Harris said. “The only thing I can think of is that it must be a result of changes in people’s patterns of behaviour, such as working from home and not venturing out so much.”

This is a theory that Dr Derek Groen, a lecturer in simulation and modelling at Brunel University London, believes may offer a partial explanation. “Because London was hit so hard, people have been more willing to comply with social distancing measures – people have been more cautious,” he suggests.

There are concerns, however, that the capital remains vulnerable should a severe second wave emerge. Leaked government calculations of a “reasonable worst-case scenario” for a second wave in London suggest that there could be 15,100 excess deaths, compared with just under 9,000 seen during the first wave.

The data, seen by the Observer, covers a 38-week period from July to March next year.

The modelling shows an infection rate doubling in August, and again in early September before levelling out until school half-term week in late October. It then rises steeply in November and December, before levelling out again in January and falling by a fifth by the end of March.



The modelling has been criticised by some as unhelpful, because it assumes little will have been learned from dealing with the first wave of infections. The government has said that the leaked information is not a forecast or prediction, but just one element of its planning.

Meanwhile, open-source coronavirus simulations, carried out in seven London boroughs by Groen and his colleagues, suggest that a second wave of Covid-19 is probable in “almost all cases” although they believe that the outbreak will be less severe than the first.

Groen explained that although the UK is nowhere close to achieving herd immunity – when 60 to 80% of the population is infected – flare-ups are “less steep” where more of a region or city’s population has been infected.

Public Health England’s surveillance studies estimated that up to 17.5% of Londoners had caught the virus by late June. In contrast, separate estimates suggest that only between 5% and 7% of the UK population overall has been infected. In some parts of the UK it is as low as 3%.

Rowland Kao, professor of veterinary epidemiology and data science at the University of Edinburgh, believes that seroprevalence – the proportion of a population that has been exposed to a particular pathogen – could be an important factor in explaining why London has not seen the sharp rise in Covid-19 cases experienced in cities such as Glasgow.

“The UK Biobank serology study showed low seroprevalence overall, but significant variation across regions and different ethnicities and social conditions. In particular, London had the highest seroprevalence, and Glasgow, like the rest of Scotland, is likely to be quite a bit lower.

“As the R number [the number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to] remains low overall – generally near 1 – these relatively small differences in seroprevalence may mean the difference between having substantial outbreaks and being in a position of being able to contain them.”

Kao points out that university students have yet to return to the capital, while tourists have, so far, largely stayed away. But the picture may be very different by Christmas.

The north London doctor certainly does not think London will escape another flare-up. “I think it is still on the way, though social distancing and mask-wearing may make a difference, as well as more protection of people in public-facing jobs. We’re all bracing ourselves for a second wave. But it is later than we expected.”

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
×