London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 22, 2026

Analysis: Johnson has mismanaged Covid, Brexit and the economy. Now his inner circle is falling out

Analysis: Johnson has mismanaged Covid, Brexit and the economy. Now his inner circle is falling out

The UK is deep in its second wave of Covid-19 at the same time as Brexit enters its final act. This might seem enough to keep its leadership occupied.

But the government of Boris Johnson is now engulfed in a political power struggle that is very publicly playing out on the newspaper front pages -- and could, some Conservatives hope, signal a shift in influence on the Prime Minister.

Late on Wednesday, Johnson's director of communications, Lee Cain, resigned from his post. Two days later, it appears that the Prime Minister's chief adviser Dominic Cummings -- a divisive figure often painted as the mastermind behind the Brexit campaign and Johnson's premiership -- may be gone by Christmas.

The political storm surrounding Johnson and his team of advisers first broke on the same day that the UK's coronavirus death toll passed the eyewatering 50,000 figure.

Johnson's political advisers briefed Westminster journalists Wednesday evening that Cain, one of the PM's closest political allies, had resigned from his job.

Downing Street had spent the day fielding complaints from Conservative lawmakers who were alarmed at news reports suggesting that Cain was set to be promoted to Johnson's chief of staff.

UK media reports also cited sources suggesting that Johnson's fiancee, former Conservative director of communications Carrie Symonds, was opposed to Cain's promotion.

Conservative MPs believe that the story was leaked as part of a power grab by Cummings in order to pressure the PM into giving Cain the job.

"It seems clear to me that they tried to bounce Boris into making Cain his chief of staff by leaking it to the media. But none of us wanted that and we are sick of not being listened to," a former cabinet minister told CNN. "We have had enough Cummings, Cain and the damage they are doing to our party. So yesterday we made sure Boris understood that via the chief whip."


Lee Cain arrives at the back of Downing Street after announcing his resignation from the UK government.


That backlash appeared to have the desired effect and, after meeting with the Prime Minister, Cain resigned, saying he would leave his post at the end of the year.

After news broke of Cain's departure, rumors began circulating that Cummings was threatening to resign himself.

Cummings told the BBC that "rumours of me threatening to resign are invented," though added that his "position hasn't changed since my January blog."
The blog post to which he is referring stated that Downing Street was aiming to "improve performance and make me much less important -- and within a year largely redundant." This, sources familiar with the matter explained to CNN, meant it was very likely that Cummings would be gone by Christmas.

Transport Minister Grant Shapps further fueled the case for Cummings' departure in comments to Sky News in London on Friday.

"As he wrote right at the beginning of the year in his own words, he planned to make himself largely redundant this year, with the big thing that he'd worked on, of course, which was Brexit coming to an end at the end of the transition period which is December 31," Shapps said of Cummings. "The other big thing has been helping to ensure access to mass testing and these two things are on the horizon now."

Speaking to Reuters news agency, Shapps said "advisers come and go over a period of time" and stressed that ministers take the decisions, but acknowledged that Cummings' had been influential in his role.

"He was always someone who would sort of shake things up, he didn't take things just because they've been done that way, that they couldn't be done any other way," said Shapps. "And it's always good, I think, to have people who challenge the system and challenge the way things are done. He's obviously been very influential in that way."


Dominic Cummings, left, and Lee Cain, right, attend a press conference by Boris Johnson in December 2019 in Watford, England.


Both Cummings and Cain and Cummings were key members of the Vote Leave team which followed Johnson into Downing Street in 2019, having successfully campaigned for UK voters to reject EU membership in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

"It has been a privilege to work as an adviser for Mr Johnson for the last three years -- being part of a team that helped him win the Tory leadership contest, secure the largest Conservative majority for three decades -- and it was an honour to be asked to serve as the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff," Cain said in a statement following his resignation.

Johnson said he wanted to "thank Lee for his extraordinary service to the government over the last four years. He has been a true ally and friend."

Bitter factionalism


So, what happened to these close friends? There had been speculation that Cain was upset by Johnson's decision to hire a new press secretary, Allegra Stratton, to front the soon-to-start daily Downing Street briefings. Stratton is not only a high-profile former journalist, but most recently worked as an adviser to Rishi Sunak, Johnson's finance minister.

Downing Street sources told CNN that while Cain was in favor of hiring Stratton, his real gripe was that he wanted her to report to him. She will instead report directly to Johnson, effectively sidelining the director of communications.



The British government is entrenched in bitter factionalism. There are too many camps to list, but a core disagreement exists between team Sunak and team Cummings -- especially when it comes to the handling of the pandemic.

Sunak's team wants to avoid lockdowns wherever possible in order to hasten the economic recovery; Cummings is more comfortable with lockdowns. And for what it's worth, more Conservatives who sit in Parliament favor the Sunak approach.

However, Johnson's government has operated an unusually centralized approach to governing, which has irked many former allies during the coronavirus crisis. This has meant that Cummings, in the eyes of Conservative lawmakers, has won his battles more often than not.

Meanwhile, the UK economy is struggling to recover from the effects of restrictions imposed to curb the pandemic. Amid a soaring second wave of coronavirus cases, England entered a second, month-long national lockdown on November 5. Strict measures have also been imposed in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in recent weeks.

The Bank of England last week warned of a double-dip recession because of the pandemic and an uncertain outlook because of Brexit. The central bank expects the economy to shrink by 2% in the fourth quarter, and by 11% in 2020.

Internal battles


The appointment of Stratton and perceived sidelining of Cain would count as one of the most significant internal battles that Cummings would have lost since entering Downing Street last year.

Conservative MPs have been alarmed at Johnson's loyalty to Cummings, despite various scandals surrounding the adviser, the most famous of which came when Cummings drove hundreds of miles from London with his wife and child after having Covid-19 symptoms while the country was in a national lockdown.

Despite the furor, Cummings did not resign and was not sacked. His activities were investigated by the police, but he faced no action. Johnson stood by Cummings despite the impact of the scandal on public trust.

"Advisers usually take the bullet for the PM, not the other way around. Boris nearly killed his career defending Cummings during lockdown," said a senior Conservative MP. "Boris does not seem to realize how much damage Cummings is doing him."

The Cain row appeared to give hope to those who would like Johnson to stop listening to Cummings quite so often in all areas of policy, which of course has implications beyond the UK's pandemic response.

It also led to some No 10 staff wondering if this indicates a broader loosening of the Vote Leave grip on Johnson.

"I think something bigger is going on with the EU deal," said one Downing Street insider, referencing the ongoing Brexit negotiations which are approaching their end. The insider suggested a concession from London might be on the cards.

The UK government is still locked in talks with Brussels with less than two months before the scheduled conclusion of the Brexit transition period on December 31, 2020.

As things stand on Brexit, a concession from London would be the simplest route to a breakthrough that would lead to a deal.

Either way, the political focus in London has shifted in just a few days from the implications of a Joe Biden presidency and what that might mean for Johnson to the inner court of Johnson and what it all means for Brexit. Which, the British public might reasonably ask, might not be entirely appropriate during a pandemic.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Parliamentary Inquiry Highlights Urgent Need to Address Housing Shortage as Scottish Completions Hit Eleven-Year Low
United Kingdom and Singapore Sign Comprehensive Financial Agreement to Deepen Digital and Sustainable Market Ties
Greggs Announces Plan to Close Four Manufacturing Facilities and Cut Seven Hundred and Forty Jobs
International Monetary Fund Raises United Kingdom Economic Growth Forecast While Warning of Inflationary Pressures
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs Onto Gas to Lower Household Bills
Housebuilding Across Scotland Plummets to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Pledges to Tackle National Housing Emergency
Greggs Announces Factory Closures Across Northern England and Scotland Affecting Seven Hundred Forty Jobs
United Kingdom and Singapore Conclude Eleventh Financial Dialogue in Singapore to Deepen Cooperation on Digital Finance and Capital Markets
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs to Gas Bills and Tap Windfall Profits to Lower Consumer Prices
British Broadcasting Corporation Announces Major Cost-Cutting Overhaul to Close Linear Broadcast Services for Television Channels BBC Three and BBC Scotland Alongside Digital Radio Station BBC Radio Four Extra
London Capital Markets Face Renewed Scrutiny After High-Profile Offerings Underperform Post-Listing
Green Party Wins Historic First Westminster Parliamentary By-Election in Gorton and Denton
Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds Unveils Sweeping Regulatory Overhaul for English Water Industry
United Kingdom Health Security Agency Confirms Thirty-Four Cases in Kent Meningitis Outbreak
Ministry of Defence Prepares Heat Pump Subsidy Cuts to Fund Urgent Military Modernization
British and European Union Officials Schedule Long-Awaited Bilateral Leaders Summit for November Twentieth
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Urges Strict Fiscal Credibility to Protect British Bond Markets
United Kingdom Inflation Rises to Three Point One Percent Driven by Escalating Fuel Costs
Profit Warnings Among London-Listed Companies Reach Two-Year High Amid Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Signals Targeted Tax Changes on Banks and London Corporate Offices Ahead of Budget
British Government Reallocates Twenty-Five Per Cent of International Climate Finance to Global Biodiversity Projects
Initial British Carbon Border Taxes Set to Undercut Parallel European Union Tariffs on Industrial Imports
Whitehall Prepares National Zero-Interest Loan Initiative to Accelerate Domestic Heat Pump and Solar Adoption
European Union Offers British Automakers Access to Hybrid Vehicle Trade Protections Subject to Strict Regulatory Alignment
British Probation Officers Threaten Widespread Industrial Action After Rejecting Five Per Cent Government Pay Offer
Microsoft Abandons Major British Artificial Intelligence Data Centre Citing Severe National Grid Power Constraints
United Kingdom Inflation Accelerates to Three Point Four Per Cent Ahead of Chancellor John Healey's Inaugural Autumn Budget
Surging Cloned Number Plates Severely Complicate Traffic Enforcement and Police Investigations
Mounting Opposition Challenges Planned Rollout of Autonomous Taxis Across London
Influential Think Tank Urges Rejoining European Union to Navigate Geopolitical Crises
Government Review Recommends Slashing Benefits to Fund Youth Employment Initiatives
Senior Minister Shabana Mahmood Seeks New Law Enforcement Pact With European Union
Airbus Executive Warns Britain Risks Losing Crucial Role in European Space Industry
Exorbitant Electricity Costs Push British Steelmakers to Worst Competitive Position in Three Years
British Food and Beverage Exports to European Union Collapse by Over a Third Since Brexit
Up to Twenty English Maternity Units Face Impending Closure Due to Safety and Staffing Crises
Government Declares Severe Drought Across Southern England Following Record Dry Spell
Corporate Profit Warnings Reach Two-Year High Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Costs
International Monetary Fund Warns Chancellor John Healey Against Proposed Bank Tax Raid
Northern Ireland Secures Favorable Agricultural Export Agreement with European Union
Scottish Government Approves Major Offshore Floating Wind Farm Near Aberdeenshire
High Speed Two Rail Project Faces Three Billion Pound Cost Escalation on Initial Phase
National Health Service Warns of Winter Capacity Crisis Across English Hospitals
Tata Steel Confirms Two Thousand Job Cuts at Port Talbot to Fund Green Transition
Global Microchip Developer Announces Three Billion Pound Semiconductor Plant in Cambridge
United Kingdom Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute Proposes Mandatory Licensing for Generative Models
United Kingdom Commits Additional Long-Range Weapons and Air Defenses to Ukraine
British Chancellor Overhauls Infrastructure Financing to Bypass Borrowing Constraints
Bank of England Holds Benchmark Interest Rate at Four Point Five Percent
First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth Confirms Constitutional Discussions Over Welsh Independence During Initial Bilateral Call with Prime Minister
×