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Monday, Oct 19, 2020

2 very different London boroughs where coronavirus rates are surging

2 very different London boroughs where coronavirus rates are surging

Coronavirus rates have surged to alarming levels in a number of London boroughs, as tighter restrictions look likely to hit the capital.

Redbridge and Richmond upon Thames are the two boroughs where rates have increased the most in London - two completely opposite corners of our city.

317 new cases were recorded in Redbridge in the seven days to October 4, up from 223 cases in the seven days before. Richmond recorded 205 cases in the same time frame, an even greater jump from 78 cases in the week prior.

This increase is further highlighted when we look at the Covid-19 rates in Redbridge (103.9 up from 73.1) and Richmond upon Thames (an huge jump from 39.4 to 103.5), which indicate there are over 100 cases per 100,000 people in these areas.

The worrying part is that, in England, some areas have previously been given local lockdown restrictions after hitting 40 cases per 100,000 - less than half the rates we are currently seeing in a lot of areas in London.

Redbridge and Richmond are recording the 80th and 81st highest Covid-19 rates out of 315 local authorities in England.

These rates are certainly high compared to authorities ranking at the bottom of the list: the Isle of Wight's rate of 11.3 remained the same compared to the rate recorded there last week.

Ealing and Hackney and City of London are also areas of concern, where over 90 cases per 100,000 are being reported.

Boroughs that recorded a rate above 80 in the latest figures include Haringey, Harrow and Tower Hamlets.

While these Covid-19 rates are high when compared to the vast majority of the 315 local authorities across the country, they are still much lower than the highest rates recorded in England.

Knowsley in Merseyside reported 867 cases in the seven days up to October 4, and now has the highest rate in England at 574.7 - a jump from 334.7 per 100,000 the week before.

Liverpool and Manchester follow with slightly lower Covid-19 rates, but both authorities recorded a lot more cases than Knowsley in the same time frame. 2747 cases were recorded in Liverpool in the seven days up to October 4, and a whopping 2994 cases were confirmed in Manchester.

Nottingham (rate of 496.8) and Newcastle upon Tyne (rate of 479.8) join to make the top five local authorities with the highest Covid-19 rates.


What kind of restrictions could come into effect?

If pubs and restaurants thought curfews would be devastating, worse is (probably) yet to come


With infections rising in the vast majority of local authorities in England, it is almost certain that new coronavirus restrictions will be tightened in the next few days.

Pubs and restaurants could close and overnight stays banned in the worst-affected areas, the BBC has been told.

The government is also likely to introduce a three-tier system for local lockdowns, where different parts of the country would be placed in different categories.

A final decision about the extent or duration of closures and restrictions has not yet been made.

But Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick told BBC Breakfast the government was "currently considering what steps to take" and that exact measures for different areas would be revealed "in the coming days".

A formal announcement is not likely to come until Monday (October 11).


Where is the rate improving in London?


While the Covid-19 rate increased across the vast majority of London in the seven days up to October 4, there were a couple of boroughs where cases dropped.

A rate of 59.7 per 100,000 was recorded in Barking and Dagenham, down from 62.0 in the seven days to September 27.

Havering also saw a drop from 57.4 o 55.9 per 100,000 people.


The weekly Covid-19 rate in every London borough


From left to right, it reads: name of local authority; rate of new cases in the seven days to October 4; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to October 4; rate of new cases in the seven days to September 27; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to September 27.

Redbridge 103.9 (317), 73.1 (223)

Richmond upon Thames 103.5 (205), 39.4 (78)

Ealing 93.6 (320), 55.6 (190)

Hackney and City of London 92.5 (269), 55.0 (160)

Haringey 84.1 (226), 40.9 (110)

Harrow 82.8 (208), 41.8 (105)

Tower Hamlets 82.5 (268), 62.5 (203)

Barnet 79.3 (314), 43.2 (171)

Hounslow 79.2 (215), 57.5 (156)

Brent 74.9 (247), 50.6 (167)

Islington 74.2 (180), 42.9 (104)

Hammersmith and Fulham 72.4 (134), 46.5 (86)

Waltham Forest 71.8 (199), 47.3 (131)

Kensington and Chelsea 71.7 (112), 23.7 (37)

Lambeth 71.2 (232), 40.5 (132)

Hillingdon 70.4 (216), 57.4 (176)

Newham 70.2 (248), 66.3 (234)

Kingston upon Thames 68.2 (121), 33.2 (59)

Enfield 68.0 (227), 42.5 (142)

Westminster 67.0 (175), 29.1 (76)

Wandsworth 65.8 (217), 37.9 (125)

Croydon 62.3 (241), 32.1 (124)

Lewisham 60.5 (185), 34.0 (104)

Barking and Dagenham 59.7 (127), 62.0 (132)

Southwark 57.1 (182), 46.7 (149)

Havering 55.9 (145), 57.4 (149)

Bromley 53.9 (179), 27.1 (90)

Bexley 51.6 (128), 28.2 (70)

Camden 51.1 (138), 27.0 (73)

Greenwich 49.0 (141), 36.5 (105)

Merton 42.6 (88), 26.1 (54)

Sutton 33.4 (69), 24.2 (50)


The top 10 highest weekly Covid-19 rates in England


From left to right, it reads: name of local authority; rate of new cases in the seven days to October 4; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to October 4; rate of new cases in the seven days to September 27; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to September 27.

Knowsley 574.7 (867), 334.7 (505)

Liverpool 551.6 (2747), 342.3 (1705)

Manchester 541.5 (2994), 307.0 (1697)

Nottingham 496.8 (1654), 94.3 (314)

Newcastle upon Tyne 479.8 (1453), 298.9 (905)

Burnley 403.7 (359), 373.4 (332)

Leeds 363.5 (2883), 170.3 (1351)
Sheffield 358.2 (2095), 120.9 (707)

Sefton 350.6 (969), 226.8 (627)

Exeter 338.6 (445), 54.8 (72)

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