London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025

Will Uncle Sam Force Big Tech to Break Up?

Will Uncle Sam Force Big Tech to Break Up?

Last month, US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chairman Joe Simons said he was prepared to do what many investors have feared for months: break up major Tech or Tech-like companies, namely Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google.
While regulatory risk hogs headlines, we don’t view it as a sound reason to avoid Tech and Tech-like firms in the near term. Uncertainty and political chatter may heighten volatility but, in our view, any material changes are likely much further out in the future -if they even happen- and may end up watered down considerably from campaign trail proposals.

For years, many pundits and politicians have claimed Internet behemoths are too powerful and monopolistic-preventing competition, hurting small businesses and stifling innovation. This year, politicians started trying to do something.

In March, the government created the “FTC Tech Task Force” to review pending and completed mergers. Then, in June, the House’s antitrust subcommittee announced they would launch a probe into Apple, Amazon, Google and Facebook’s alleged anti-competitive and anti-consumer business practices. The first hearings happened in July to much fanfare. That same month, the Department of Justice (DoJ) announced it would conduct its own antitrust review.

Some of the loudest voices supporting a shakeup are 2020 presidential hopefuls. Most prominent is Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has suggested dismantling Internet giants by designating an “online marketplace, an exchange, or platform for connecting third parties” as “platform utility.”[i] Some of her fellow candidates, including Bernie Sanders, agree. Other candidates and politicians simply believe big Internet companies should be subject to more regulation to address concerns over competition or suppressed content (the latter a pet issue among many GOP lawmakers). Because of this bipartisan fury, investors fear anti-Tech sentiment from both Republicans and Democrats may yield a big break up, significant business model changes or huge fines—roiling the sector.

While any of these outcomes are possible, we don’t view this possibility as a reason to avoid Tech now. Markets move on probabilities, not possibilities. We believe it is simply too early in the game to assign probabilities.

Take those Democratic campaign pledges to dismantle Internet giants—which many folks fear most. It is unknowable today whether they will eventually yield anything. Big Tech chatter may just be big talk on a hotly debated issue—a means to appeal to voters as the election nears.

Candidates often use hot-button issues—such as healthcare, taxes, climate change, etc.—to differentiate themselves from the pack and galvanize their base early in the campaign. Especially this year on the Democratic side, given there are 20-plus candidates still vying for the nomination.

But actual legislation depends on who wins the presidency, whether they have a strong congressional majority, and whether Tech regulation is even top of mind when the next administration gets down to brass tacks. Any legislation that emerges is highly likely to morph in the future, if it even gets off the ground. Campaign pledges often get watered down once Congress takes them on. We suggest letting the electoral process narrow the field before zeroing in on potential policies.

As for the present administration’s regulatory efforts, trying to guess at what kind of changes the FTC and DoJ may propose is a little more difficult. It is possible either regulatory body proposes material changes or penalties. But anything beyond symbolic fines probably gets bogged down in the legal system for eons. While some fear these fines may damage large Tech and Tech-like companies, history has shown fines are common and manageable. Governments have often nickel-and-dimed big firms through fines, whether they committed egregiously bad behavior or not. While these may seem large, they pale in comparison to the targeted Tech companies’ balance sheets. For instance, Google’s $1.7 billion fine from the EU in 2017 was a teensy 0.2% of its market cap at that time.[ii]

So what if antitrust cases happen? History shows antitrust cases against large firms generally take a long time to play out. For example, AT&T’s antitrust case, filed in 1974—on the basis of being the only US provider of telephone services and equipment—lasted 8 years. Microsoft’s antitrust case, filed in May 1998—rooted in Internet Explorer pre-install concerns—lasted nearly 15 years. While these are just two examples, they illustrate how long antitrust inquiries can be, giving the market plenty of time to digest possible outcomes. Some may point out that AT&T and Microsoft underperformed during periods of their investigations.

However, each investigation spanned at least one bear market (one of which was the Tech bubble.) Moreover, virtually any stock will probably underperform at multiple points during such long stretches.

But when or whether any of this will occur is unknowable today. Hence, we think taking action now would be unwise for investors. That said, given the chatter, we wouldn’t be surprised if uncertainty spread in the short term, perhaps heightening volatility in Tech and Tech-like stocks. If it does, we counsel tuning out the noise.

Fisher Investments’ Editorial Staff does not recommend individual securities. The names above merely represent a theme we wish to highlight.

Investing in stock markets involves the risk of loss and there is no guarantee that all or any capital invested will be repaid. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. International currency fluctuations may result in a higher or lower investment return. This document constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment or tax advice or as a representation of its performance or that of its clients.

No assurances are made that Fisher Investments will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Not all past forecasts have been, nor future forecasts will be, as accurate as any contained herein.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
US Administration Under President Donald Trump Reportedly Lifts Ban on Ukraine’s Use of Storm Shadow Missiles Against Russia
‘Frightening’ First Night in Prison for Sarkozy: Inmates Riot and Shout ‘Little Nicolas’
White House Announces No Imminent Summit Between Trump and Putin
US and Qatar Warn EU of Trade and Energy Risks from Tough Climate Regulation
Apple Challenges EU Digital Markets Act Crackdown in Landmark Court Battle
Nicolas Sarkozy begins five-year prison term at La Santé in Paris
Japan stocks surge to record as Sanae Takaichi becomes Prime Minister
This Is How the 'Heist of the Century' Was Carried Out at the Louvre in Seven Minutes: France Humiliated as Crown with 2,000 Diamonds Vanishes
China Warns UK of ‘Consequences’ After Delay to London Embassy Approval
France’s Wealthy Shift Billions to Luxembourg and Switzerland Amid Tax and Political Turmoil
"Sniper Position": Observation Post Targeting 'Air Force One' Found Before Trump’s Arrival in Florida
Shouting Match at the White House: 'Trump Cursed, Threw Maps, and Told Zelensky – "Putin Will Destroy You"'
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
×