London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Oct 03, 2025

Will Britain’s Brexit Chickens Come Home to Roost? 

Will Britain’s Brexit Chickens Come Home to Roost? 

Britain’s Boris Johnson sees himself and Donald Trump as kindred spirits. The British leader, who has taken as much delight as the U.S. President in upending political norms and establishment conventions, had been banking on securing a transatlantic trade deal early in a second Trump term.

Trump, too, has praised Johnson, dubbing him “Britain Trump.”

But Johnson’s ministers and officials are now scrambling to improve their contacts with the Democrats, hedging bets as Downing Street electoral calculations have shifted. British officials, who are watching the opinion polls closely, are now reckoning that Trump’s challenger, Democrat nominee Joe Biden, could win next month’s presidential race, potentially throwing into disarray their trade-deal ambitions.


Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden arrives to speak at United Food & Commercial Workers Union Local 951 in Grand Rapids, Mich., Oct. 2, 2020.


“Ministers have been told to forge links with the White House frontrunner Joe Biden after ‘writing off’ Donald Trump’s chances of re-election,” according to Tim Shipman, the political editor of Britain’s Sunday Times. Shipman, who’s widely acknowledged to enjoy good contracts with Downing Street insiders, say ministers fear Britain risks being be “left out in the cold,” if Biden wins.

Trade concerns


British officials say they worry Biden will prioritize a trade agreement with the European Union or be more focused on a trans-Pacific trade deal, which was negotiated by Obama’s White House but abandoned by President Trump. And that they will be much less concerned about a smaller bilateral deal with London, which could help Britain offset some of the trade losses of Brexit.

Like Barack Obama, Biden disapproved of Brexit. Obama openly backed Britain remaining in the EU, famously warning that the country would diminish itself, be less useful for the U.S. and would be placed at the “back of the queue” when it come to trade deals, in the event Britain left the EU.

In a speech in Dublin the day after the 2016 Brexit referendum Biden condemned “reactionary politicians and demagogues,” adding the Obama administration: “We’d have preferred a different outcome” from the Brexit plebiscite.


A pedestrian shelters from the rain beneath a Union Jack-themed umbrella near the Big Ben clock face and the Elizabeth Tower at the Houses of Parliament in central London, following the pro-Brexit result of the referendum vote, June 25, 2016.


The ruling Conservatives have followed the traditional diplomatic practice of remaining strictly neutral on the White House race. They broke with that norm in 1992, when it emerged they had trawled Foreign Ministry files looking for any embarrassing information on Bill Clinton, who had studied at Britain’s University of Oxford. The move outraged the Democrats, shaping frosty relations from the get-go between then Conservative prime minister John Major and the new Democrat U.S. president.

Biden & BoJo


Biden himself has been dismissive of Johnson in the past, describing the British leader at a fundraiser early in the primary race for the Democratic nomination as “a physical and emotional clone of the president.”

In recent weeks British ministers have noticeably upped the tempo of their meetings with top Democrats.


Britain's Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab leaves the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in central London, July 1, 2020.


Dominic Raab, the foreign minister, met Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, and other senior congressional Democrats last month, including Senator Chris Coons, who now occupies the Delaware seat Biden held for 36 years. Coons could be a possible Biden pick for Secretary of State, although most Democratic insiders see him being earmarked to act as the shepherd for the legislative priorities of a President Biden.

During last month’s meeting Raab sought to assuage mounting Democratic fears that Brexit would end up undermining peace on the island of Ireland.


Bertie Ahern, Tony Blair and Bill Clinton attend an event to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, in Belfast, Northern Ireland, Apr. 10, 2018.


Bill Clinton helped to broker the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. Democrats, along with leaders of the Irish Republic, worry Brexit will lead to a so-called ‘hard border’ appearing along the frontier separating the two halves of Ireland.

Pelosi warned Rabb that there will be no trade deal with the U.S., if Brexit ends up threatening the Good Friday Agreement.



“The Good Friday Agreement is the bedrock of peace in Northern Ireland and a beacon of hope for peace-loving people throughout the whole world,” Pelosi said in a statement following her talks with Raab. “Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement — the stability brought by the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland,” she added.

Biden was similarly blunt in a tweet last month. “We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit,” Biden wrote. “Any trade deal between the U.S. and UK must be contingent upon respect for the Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. Period,” he added.

" We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit.

Any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. Period. https://t.co/Ecu9jPrcHL
Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) September 16, 2020


Biden aides say the responses on Brexit and Northern Ireland have been coordinated between the Biden campaign and senior congressional Democrats.

In private, Conservative officials and lawmakers are divided over who would be the better candidate from their perspective to win the White House race, VOA has found in off-the-record conversations.

Full-throated advocates of Brexit and those who want a clean break with the EU tend to favor Trump, seeing him as an ideological populist ally who is as equally disdainful of the EU.


Then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump welcomes Nigel Farage, left, ex-leader of the British UKIP party, to speak at a campaign rally in Jackson, Miss., Aug. 24, 2016.


Nigel Farage, Brexit Party leader and a friend of the U.S. president, Sunday said Trump’s reelection would be the best outcome for Britain. Writing in Britain’s Sunday Express, he warned Biden “sees Brexit as a mistake.” He added “I do not see any prospect of a free-trade deal with the U.S. under President Joe Biden.”


Anti-Brexit protesters hold flags outside the Houses of Parliament in London, Britain, Sept. 25, 2019.


Those who opposed Brexit, or want Britain to forge close ties with the 27-member bloc they’ve just left, tend to favor Biden. They worry about the future of NATO in a second Trump term.

In June, John Sawers, the former head of Britain MI6 intelligence agency, said Trump’s re-election would be problematic. “There is no doubt President Trump is the most difficult president for us to deal with,” he said. “He does not really feel that sense of being part of that transatlantic community, he does not really believe in alliances,” he added.

Some pro-EU lawmakers also suspect that a Biden win would likely force Johnson to offer more compromises in ongoing fraught talks with the EU about Britain’s future relationship with the bloc.

Either way, British Conservatives fear they will likely face a difficult time with a Biden administration. Johnson and Biden’s world views are very different. Biden is said to have taken as much offense as Obama over a newspaper column Johnson wrote when he was mayor of London in which he accused Obama of being “part-Kenyan” and harboring an “ancestral dislike of the British Empire.”

Pivot away?


Some former British diplomats are worried that Brexit “chickens will come home to roost” with a Biden administration.

While they are confident close U.S.-British security ties will endure, they have feared ever since the Brexit referendum that overall London will become less important than Berlin and Paris for the U.S.

“We have given up a key role we have played for the U.S. for decades - as America’s deputy within the European camp, cajoling and lobbying on behalf of the U.S.,” frets a former British ambassador. “As the EU develops a common security and foreign policy, Britain won’t be able to help influence it, reducing our leverage with Washington,” he added.

Speaking last month in a video chat hosted by the Chamber of Commerce, Tony Blinken, a former deputy secretary of State , who is also being tipped as a possible secretary of state in a Biden administration, emphasized that post-Trump a key policy objective will be to improve relations with the EU.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
FBI Removes Agents Who Kneeled at 2020 Protest, Citing Breach of Professional Conduct
Trump Alleges ‘Triple Sabotage’ at United Nations After Escalator and Teleprompter Failures
Shock in France: 5 Years in Prison for Former President Nicolas Sarkozy
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
BNP Paribas Abandons Ban on 'Controversial Weapons' Financing Amid Europe’s Defence Push
Typhoon Ragasa Leaves Trail of Destruction Across East Asia Before Making Landfall in China
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Big Banks Rebuild in Hong Kong as Deal Volume Surges
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Arnault Denounces Proposed Wealth Tax as Threat to French Economy
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Denmark Investigates Drone Incursion, Does Not Rule Out Russian Involvement
Lilly CEO Warns UK Is ‘Worst Country in Europe’ for Drug Prices, Pulls Back Investment
Nigel Farage Emerges as Central Force in British Politics with Reform UK Surge
Disney Reinstates ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ after Six-Day Suspension over Charlie Kirk Comments
U.S. Prosecutors Move to Break Up Google’s Advertising Monopoly
Nvidia Pledges Up to $100 Billion Investment in OpenAI to Power Massive AI Data Center Build-Out
U.S. Signals ‘Large and Forceful’ Support for Argentina Amid Market Turmoil
Nvidia and Abu Dhabi’s TII Launch First AI-&-Robotics Lab in the Middle East
Vietnam Faces Up to $25 Billion Export Loss as U.S. Tariffs Bite
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Indonesia Court Upholds Military Law Amid Concerns Over Expanded Civilian Role
Larry Ellison, Michael Dell and Rupert Murdoch Join Trump-Backed Bid to Take Over TikTok
Trump and Musk Reunite Publicly for First Time Since Fallout at Kirk Memorial
Vietnam Closes 86 Million Untouched Bank Accounts Over Biometric ID Rules
×