London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Aug 16, 2026

Why it's time to think differently about Covid

Why it's time to think differently about Covid

For more than a year, personal freedoms have been curtailed to keep Covid at bay.

That looks likely to change, with ministers proposing to lift many of the remaining restrictions in England on 19 July. The details, set out on Monday, have sparked intense debate.

Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, whose modelling led to the first lockdown, has said it is a gamble, but one worth taking.

What is unarguable is that the nature of the pandemic in the UK has changed - and with it so should many of our assumptions.

Covid no longer the deadly virus it was


The rollout of the vaccination programme has altered everything, reducing both the individual risk and the wider one to the health system.

Back in January, about one in 10 infections could be expected to translate into a hospital admission 10 days later. Now that figure appears to be somewhere between one in 40 and one in 50.



What is more, those ending up in hospital seem to be less sick, and need less intensive treatment.

The risk of death, as a result, has reduced even further. In January about one in 60 cases resulted in someone dying. Today it's fewer than one in 1,000.

Third wave will still be big


But this does not mean England - and the rest of the UK for that matter - is not heading for a significant third wave.

As the charts above show, infection rates are rising. If they rise enough, that has the potential to cause a significant number of hospitalisations, possibly 1,000 a day before summer is out.

Many may wonder how this can happen given how effective the vaccines are.

Individually, those who have had two doses are at a very tiny risk of getting seriously ill, but with infection rates high it means many people are taking that tiny risk at the same time. Add to that those who are unvaccinated or for whom the vaccines do not work as well and you can get a lot of admissions to hospital.


But serious illness happens all the time. In the depths of winter there can be 1,000 admissions a day for respiratory infections.

Flu alone killed more than 20,000 people in England in the winter of 2017-18. There was no talk of the need to introduce restrictions or curtail freedoms then.

"That is the context we need to start seeing Covid in," says Prof Robert Dingwall, a sociologist at Nottingham Trent University.

The difficult trade-offs


But why even take the risk? Why not - as scientists on Independent Sage have suggested -wait until the adult vaccination rollout is complete in September?

There was always going to be an "exit wave" once restrictions were lifted. And government scientists are hopeful the wall of immunity built up by natural infection and the vaccine rollout so far will soon kick in and flatten the wave.

The fact remains interventions are not harm-free, so in the end it comes down to difficult judgements about trade-offs.

As the virus presents less of a risk, that in turn shifts the balance on what can be considered proportionate.


Perhaps the clearest example of this is what is happening with schools where there are currently more than 500,000 children at home self-isolating in England because they were deemed to have close contact with an infected person at school.

That's 20 children out of school for every positive case.

This approach started in September, before vaccines had even completed their clinical trials. The idea was to contain spread of the virus to protect vulnerable adults - children are at incredibly low risk from Covid.

Now that all over-50s have had the chance of a second jab - these are the age groups where 99% of Covid deaths have occurred - the benefits of quarantining children like this is hugely reduced, while the costs in terms of disruption to education are clear to see.

Ministers say they will change this approach in time for September, but should this have been avoided given how much school has been disrupted already?

'Covid will never go away'


There are other arguments for why it should be now.

"Covid will never go away," says Prof Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia. "It's inevitable that we're going to catch it repeatedly for the rest of our lives, whether we have had the vaccine or not.


"The issues becomes not whether it is safe to lift all restrictions, but when would it be safest to do so."

Waiting any longer could make the situation worse, he believes, extending the exit wave into the autumn when schools are back and the flu season is getting under way.

It was a view echoed by England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty, who said it had his personal backing when the government unveiled its plans on Monday.

The eyes of the world will be on us


But the idea of letting a virus spread when we have spent so long trying to do the opposite requires a psychological shift.

Dr Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at University of St Andrews, says this will take time.

"We need to accept Covid is here. We won't be able to completely stop the spread. We are now at the stage of managing the virus."

She would like to see more emphasis now on recovery, tackling the backlog in hospital care for non-Covid treatments, dealing with the economic fallout and loss of jobs and the emotional and mental health toll the pandemic has had.

But none of this is without risks. What if infection rates keep rising and that wall of immunity is slow to kick in?

Understandable concerns have also been raised about those who are at risk because they have conditions such as blood cancer which mean the vaccines do not work as well or who have a higher chance of exposure because of their jobs, such as shop or factory workers.

There is also Long Covid to contend with - although the risks of this are far from fully understood.

We are, perhaps, the first country to find ourselves in this situation, where we are attempting to return to normal in the face of a rapidly rising rate of infection and a more infectious variant, Delta.

Others will soon face similar dilemmas. It's why the world will be watching what happens on these shores.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Reform UK Unveils Plan to Cut Welfare Spending by More Than £50 Billion a Year
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Praised Extinction Rebellion for Doing a 'Great Service'
UK Wildfire Phone Alert Triggers Backlash as Users Switch Off Emergency Warnings
Heathrow Roads Reopen After Burst Water Main Floods Access to Terminals 2 and 3
Former NBA Players Enes Kanter Freedom and Royce White Say They Will Enter 2027 WNBA Draft
Italian Speed Camera Issues Nearly 32,000 Fines in 10 Weeks, Worth More Than €3 Million
Former Cambridge Professor Jason Arday Found Dead Days After Resigning Amid Plagiarism Row
US Appeals Court Rules AI Agent's Website Actions Are Legally Attributed to the User
France's Constitutional Council Blocks Social Media Ban for Children Under 15
Liechtenstein Changes Royal Succession Rules to Allow Women to Inherit the Throne
Women Allege Rape and Sexual Abuse at British Army College for Teenage Recruits
Minnesota: Two independent investigators posed as Muslims (one wearing a burqa) and showed how they could vote in elections without identification.
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Takes Regional Tour to Highlight Local Infrastructure and Environmental Problems
Nigel Farage Wins Clacton By-Election to Return to the House of Commons
Bank of England Warns Rising Inflation Could Squeeze UK Household Incomes
UK Government Announces £65 Million Aid Package for Farmers Hit by Severe Drought
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in Second Quarter Despite Energy Market Pressures
UK Issues Emergency Alert as Severe Wildfires Spread Across England and Wales
UK and Finland Discuss European Defence and Continued Support for Ukraine
Nigel Farage Wins Clacton By-Election to Return to the House of Commons
UK Government Deploys Military to Help Fight Wildfires and Bans Disposable Barbecues
UK Records Hottest Day of the Year as Fifth Summer Heatwave Peaks in Southern England
UK Condemns Houthi Actions and Warns of Red Sea Threat to Global Trade
UK and Solomon Islands Open Wildlife Photography Exhibition in Honiara
UK Small Businesses Face Continued Cash Flow and Tax Pressures
Greatham Marsh Restoration Restores Tidal Wetland in Hartlepool After More Than 200 Years
UK Health Regulator Urges University Students to Check Meningitis and Measles Vaccination Status
Mining Remediation Authority Completes Major Ground Stabilization Works in Scottish Community
UK Food Crime Investigators Seize 33 Tonnes of Illegal Food in Multi-Agency Operation
Technical Qualification Uptake Hits Record High as Advanced Mathematics Results Improve
UK Summer Temperatures on Course to Challenge Long-Standing Records, Met Office Says
UK Farmers Bring Forward Cereal Harvests as Drought Threatens Yields
Wildfires Surge Across England and Wales as Fire Chiefs Report Record July
UK Nurses Warn of Heat Risks as Hospital Staff Struggle With Extreme Temperatures
Southern Water Seeks Drought Order for Hampshire and Isle of Wight Amid Water Shortages
UK Heatwave Pushes West London Temperature to 38.1 Degrees as Health Alerts Continue
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in Second Quarter Despite Global Uncertainty
China’s Kimi Launches AI-Focused Credit Card With Agricultural Bank of China and American Express
UK Residents Gather to Watch Rare Partial Solar Eclipse
Reform UK Deputy Leader Richard Tice Faces Criticism Over Legal Threat Against Guardian Journalist
Michael Forsyth Elected Speaker of the House of Lords
Cambridge Researchers Launch £20 Million Human Organoid Drug Testing Programme
Heathrow Loses European Passenger Traffic Lead to Istanbul Airport
Households Near New UK Electricity Pylons to Receive £250 Annual Energy Bill Discount
UK Government Estimates Zero-Hours Contract Ban Could Cost Employers Up to £3 Billion a Year
Robert Jenrick Leaves Conservatives for Reform UK in Major Parliamentary Defection
UK Police Chiefs Urge Government to Block Early Release of Andrew Harper Killers
UK Government Holds Emergency Cobra Meeting as Drought and Heatwave Raise Wildfire Risks
Former Labour Adviser Arrested on Suspicion of Spying for China Held Privileged Access as Top Party Donor
Turkish Parliament Passes Landmark Bill Granting Conditional Amnesty to Disarmed PKK Members
×