London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 24, 2026

Why it's time to think differently about Covid

Why it's time to think differently about Covid

For more than a year, personal freedoms have been curtailed to keep Covid at bay.

That looks likely to change, with ministers proposing to lift many of the remaining restrictions in England on 19 July. The details, set out on Monday, have sparked intense debate.

Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, whose modelling led to the first lockdown, has said it is a gamble, but one worth taking.

What is unarguable is that the nature of the pandemic in the UK has changed - and with it so should many of our assumptions.

Covid no longer the deadly virus it was


The rollout of the vaccination programme has altered everything, reducing both the individual risk and the wider one to the health system.

Back in January, about one in 10 infections could be expected to translate into a hospital admission 10 days later. Now that figure appears to be somewhere between one in 40 and one in 50.



What is more, those ending up in hospital seem to be less sick, and need less intensive treatment.

The risk of death, as a result, has reduced even further. In January about one in 60 cases resulted in someone dying. Today it's fewer than one in 1,000.

Third wave will still be big


But this does not mean England - and the rest of the UK for that matter - is not heading for a significant third wave.

As the charts above show, infection rates are rising. If they rise enough, that has the potential to cause a significant number of hospitalisations, possibly 1,000 a day before summer is out.

Many may wonder how this can happen given how effective the vaccines are.

Individually, those who have had two doses are at a very tiny risk of getting seriously ill, but with infection rates high it means many people are taking that tiny risk at the same time. Add to that those who are unvaccinated or for whom the vaccines do not work as well and you can get a lot of admissions to hospital.


But serious illness happens all the time. In the depths of winter there can be 1,000 admissions a day for respiratory infections.

Flu alone killed more than 20,000 people in England in the winter of 2017-18. There was no talk of the need to introduce restrictions or curtail freedoms then.

"That is the context we need to start seeing Covid in," says Prof Robert Dingwall, a sociologist at Nottingham Trent University.

The difficult trade-offs


But why even take the risk? Why not - as scientists on Independent Sage have suggested -wait until the adult vaccination rollout is complete in September?

There was always going to be an "exit wave" once restrictions were lifted. And government scientists are hopeful the wall of immunity built up by natural infection and the vaccine rollout so far will soon kick in and flatten the wave.

The fact remains interventions are not harm-free, so in the end it comes down to difficult judgements about trade-offs.

As the virus presents less of a risk, that in turn shifts the balance on what can be considered proportionate.


Perhaps the clearest example of this is what is happening with schools where there are currently more than 500,000 children at home self-isolating in England because they were deemed to have close contact with an infected person at school.

That's 20 children out of school for every positive case.

This approach started in September, before vaccines had even completed their clinical trials. The idea was to contain spread of the virus to protect vulnerable adults - children are at incredibly low risk from Covid.

Now that all over-50s have had the chance of a second jab - these are the age groups where 99% of Covid deaths have occurred - the benefits of quarantining children like this is hugely reduced, while the costs in terms of disruption to education are clear to see.

Ministers say they will change this approach in time for September, but should this have been avoided given how much school has been disrupted already?

'Covid will never go away'


There are other arguments for why it should be now.

"Covid will never go away," says Prof Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia. "It's inevitable that we're going to catch it repeatedly for the rest of our lives, whether we have had the vaccine or not.


"The issues becomes not whether it is safe to lift all restrictions, but when would it be safest to do so."

Waiting any longer could make the situation worse, he believes, extending the exit wave into the autumn when schools are back and the flu season is getting under way.

It was a view echoed by England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty, who said it had his personal backing when the government unveiled its plans on Monday.

The eyes of the world will be on us


But the idea of letting a virus spread when we have spent so long trying to do the opposite requires a psychological shift.

Dr Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at University of St Andrews, says this will take time.

"We need to accept Covid is here. We won't be able to completely stop the spread. We are now at the stage of managing the virus."

She would like to see more emphasis now on recovery, tackling the backlog in hospital care for non-Covid treatments, dealing with the economic fallout and loss of jobs and the emotional and mental health toll the pandemic has had.

But none of this is without risks. What if infection rates keep rising and that wall of immunity is slow to kick in?

Understandable concerns have also been raised about those who are at risk because they have conditions such as blood cancer which mean the vaccines do not work as well or who have a higher chance of exposure because of their jobs, such as shop or factory workers.

There is also Long Covid to contend with - although the risks of this are far from fully understood.

We are, perhaps, the first country to find ourselves in this situation, where we are attempting to return to normal in the face of a rapidly rising rate of infection and a more infectious variant, Delta.

Others will soon face similar dilemmas. It's why the world will be watching what happens on these shores.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Royal Navy Commandos Complete Maritime Operations Training With US Navy SEALs
Vistry Profit Warning Adds to Concerns Over UK Housebuilding Conditions
UK Commits £343 Million to Major Expansion of Community Mental Health Services
Five Eyes Partners Back UK-Led Campaign Against Global Fraud Networks
UK Businesses Gain Full Access to £13 Trillion CPTPP Trading Bloc
UK Allocates Nearly £10 Billion for Council, Social and Affordable Housing
Chancellor John Healey Unveils Deregulation Drive to Accelerate UK Investment and Growth
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Sets Out Post-Brexit Foreign Policy Vision at United Nations
UK Reassesses Chagos Arrangements as Burnham Seeks New Path on Diego Garcia
Key Trends to Watch
Government’s “Buy British” Procurement Push Targets More Domestic Jobs and Industrial Capacity
Scotland Launches Four-Year Flood Resilience Programme With New Community Funding
Low-Income Renters Face Record Gap Between Housing Support and Private Rents
UK and US Test Torpedo Launch From British Undersea Drone in Defence Technology Milestone
Britain Pushes Artificial Intelligence Security Onto United Nations Security Council Agenda
Treasury Committee Defends Office for Budget Responsibility Independence Amid Fiscal Pressure
Scotland Records Eleven Per Cent Rise in Drug-Use Deaths as Cocaine and Nitazenes Drive Concern
Welsh Government Sets Four-Year Programme Around Health, Living Costs, Jobs and Housing
Study Finds Most People With High Blood Pressure in England Remain Undiagnosed
Britain Plans First National Workplace Health System to Tackle Economic Inactivity
England to Introduce Vocational GCSEs in Major Secondary Education Reform
UK Elevates Climate and Nature Risks to National Security Priority
Andy Burnham and Donald Trump Put Trade at Centre of First Major Bilateral Meeting
Andy Burnham and Ursula von der Leyen Push Ahead With Closer UK-European Union Economic Ties
UK Government Borrowing Jumps to Eighteen Point Three Billion Pounds Ahead of October Budget
Piddington Residents Back Symbolic Independence Vote Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
Reform UK Names Helen Jenner as New Leader in Wales
England Expands Devolution of Transport, Skills and Economic Development Powers
Liberal Democrats Call for Temporary Fuel Duty Cut to Ease Cost-of-Living Pressure
UK Farmers Warn Drought Has Caused Crop Failures and Reduced Harvests
UK Fixed Mortgage Rates Approach 6% as Lenders Raise Borrowing Costs
YouGov Poll Puts Labour at 23% With Conservatives and Reform UK on 21%
Badenoch Presses Burnham to Increase Defence Spending and Cut Welfare Costs
UK Military Figures Warn of Growing Threats to Undersea Infrastructure and National Readiness
BP Moves Ahead With Sale of UK North Sea Oil and Gas Business
UK and ASEAN Endorse New Framework for Trade and Economic Cooperation
UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Three-Year Low as Borrowing Costs and Job Concerns Rise
UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% as Motor Fuel Costs Push Prices Higher
Bank of England Sets Multi-Year Plan to Wind Down Quantitative Easing Holdings
UK Borrowing Rises to £18.3 Billion in August Ahead of October Budget
Michelin Guide Faces Industry Questions Over Restaurant Inspection Coverage
English Woodlands Face Renewed Weather Stress From Dry Conditions and Strong Winds
Research Finds Extensive Alcohol, Gambling and Unhealthy Food Branding During 2026 World Cup
Five Charged After Newborn Baby Dies From Stab Wounds in Sheffield
BT Could Reap £2 Billion From Recycling Copper as Full-Fibre Network Expands
FCA Urges Young Adults to Trace £1.5 Billion in Unclaimed Child Trust Funds
Reform UK Names Helen Jenner as New Leader in Wales After Dan Thomas Steps Down
Resolution Foundation Calls for Broad-Based Tax Rises to Fund Higher UK Defence Spending
Ed Davey Calls for Global Treaty to Halt Development of Super-Intelligent AI
Scotland Consults on Legal Price Caps for Essential Foods
×