Oasis Reunion Tour Linked to Temporary Rise in UK Inflation
Economists note potential impact of sold-out concerts on consumer prices as Bank of England weighs rate decisions
The reunion tour of British band Oasis is expected to temporarily raise headline inflation in the United Kingdom, according to economists monitoring price data.
The band's sold-out concerts in July and August, including performances in Edinburgh and Manchester, coincide with periods when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) collects price information for the consumer prices index.
Economists estimate that the concerts could lift headline inflation by as much as four basis points, mainly through increases in hotel prices in host cities.
Hotel bookings for the 8 August Edinburgh concert, coinciding with the city's Fringe Festival, were recorded at 65% higher year-on-year for three-star hotels and 50% higher for four-star hotels when booked one day in advance.
Edinburgh’s smaller weighting in the hotel CPI index may limit the overall effect.
The Bank of England cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point last week but remains cautious about inflationary pressures.
Private-sector wage growth excluding bonuses eased slightly to 4.8% in June from 4.9%.
The central bank projects inflation will peak at 4% in September, partly driven by higher food prices.
The ONS has adjusted its methodology for collecting hotel price data to mitigate distortions from temporary demand surges, now recording prices at multiple points in the month instead of a single day.
Analysts suggest that while the impact from the Oasis tour is likely to be short-lived, it may influence near-term inflation readings, particularly in July and August.
Barclays estimates that fans will spend more than one billion pounds attending the Oasis tour, with average individual spending at approximately £766.
Economists note that while such events generate significant hospitality and tourism revenue, they often result in spending being reallocated from other areas rather than producing a net boost to the economy.
The Oasis reunion marks the first time brothers Noel and Liam Gallagher have performed together since 2009.
Songs including “Live Forever,” “Wonderwall,” and “Don’t Look Back in Anger” have re-entered the UK singles chart as demand for tickets surged.
The band's sold-out concerts in July and August, including performances in Edinburgh and Manchester, coincide with periods when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) collects price information for the consumer prices index.
Economists estimate that the concerts could lift headline inflation by as much as four basis points, mainly through increases in hotel prices in host cities.
Hotel bookings for the 8 August Edinburgh concert, coinciding with the city's Fringe Festival, were recorded at 65% higher year-on-year for three-star hotels and 50% higher for four-star hotels when booked one day in advance.
Edinburgh’s smaller weighting in the hotel CPI index may limit the overall effect.
The Bank of England cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point last week but remains cautious about inflationary pressures.
Private-sector wage growth excluding bonuses eased slightly to 4.8% in June from 4.9%.
The central bank projects inflation will peak at 4% in September, partly driven by higher food prices.
The ONS has adjusted its methodology for collecting hotel price data to mitigate distortions from temporary demand surges, now recording prices at multiple points in the month instead of a single day.
Analysts suggest that while the impact from the Oasis tour is likely to be short-lived, it may influence near-term inflation readings, particularly in July and August.
Barclays estimates that fans will spend more than one billion pounds attending the Oasis tour, with average individual spending at approximately £766.
Economists note that while such events generate significant hospitality and tourism revenue, they often result in spending being reallocated from other areas rather than producing a net boost to the economy.
The Oasis reunion marks the first time brothers Noel and Liam Gallagher have performed together since 2009.
Songs including “Live Forever,” “Wonderwall,” and “Don’t Look Back in Anger” have re-entered the UK singles chart as demand for tickets surged.
