London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jul 17, 2026

Where do Tories stand in post-Sturgeon Scotland?

Where do Tories stand in post-Sturgeon Scotland?

The Scottish Conservatives are holding their conference in Glasgow at a moment of flux and uncertainty in the nation's politics.

What does Nicola Sturgeon's departure mean for the balance of Scottish politics, which the Tories have been happy to keep on a constitutional theme? And how is Rishi Sunak's UK government shaping up to deal with Humza Yosuaf as first minister?

On the surface, the Scottish Tories appear to be having a marvellous time with the SNP's ongoing woes.

Leader Douglas Ross opened his conference speech with a lengthy string of gags at the expense of his rivals, as part of his one-man mission to exhaust every possible pun on the subject of motorhomes.

But for all this glee, there is a question over how ready his party is for the sands of Scottish politics to shift.

The Conservatives were quite comfortable with the post-indyref setup, contesting a never-ending constitutional squabble with the SNP - the parties of Yes and No, yin and yang - which left little room for Labour.

Ms Sturgeon was a useful bogeyman both for the Scottish party to scare up unionist voters, but also for the UK-wide operation to portray as a potential puppet master pulling the strings of a Sir Keir Starmer government.

Now she is gone, and uncertainty abounds.

They may talk a cheerful game, but the Tories' own fortunes are not exactly looking rosy, with polls suggesting they are well adrift of Labour in Westminster voting intention.


That, in part, explains why Mr Ross waded into a row over tactical voting.

It started with a newspaper column suggesting that Scottish voters would know which party was best placed to take on the SNP in their local area. He didn't actually say "vote Labour", but the inference was clear.

Mr Ross knew the SNP would pounce on any suggestion that the "Better Together" alliance of the 2014 independence referendum could be resurrected.

He also knows that Labour are desperate for the next election to hinge on anything other than the constitution - the topic which has seen them squeezed out into third place.

So anything that turns Scottish politics back into a binary bunfight over borders will implicitly damage Labour and benefit the Tories.

Hence why Mr Ross spent a good chunk of his speech wiring in about the SNP, and only a few lines writing off Labour as an insufficient challenge to them.


The attempt at 3D chess strategy was not publicly embraced by the prime minister, though.

Rishi Sunak has a very different struggle with Labour on his hands, and is very clear that Conservatives should vote Conservative.

The UK government perspective may not be hugely different to the Scottish Tory one overall though.

They too are pretty comfortable with how things stand between themselves and the Scottish government, particularly when it comes to the constitution.

In his rather brief speech to conference - it lasted just over seven minutes, before he took part in a Q&A session with the less than fearsome inquisitor, Douglas Ross - Mr Sunak stuck with the tried-and-tested approach of insisting he would say no to any request for an independence referendum.

Rishi Sunak was the fourth successive PM to reject Nicola Sturgeon's calls for a referendum


"Now is not the time" was first dreamed up by Theresa May six years ago, and is perhaps her most lasting contribution as prime minister.

Nicola Sturgeon used to insist that position would crumble; instead it endured through the reigns of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, and indeed has outlasted her own time in office.

The latest variation on the theme was beamed across the back of the stage during Mr Sunak's speech: that he is "focused on Scotland's real priorities", not independence.

Humza Yousaf formally asked for a referendum on his first day as first minister, and nobody was surprised when Mr Sunak shot the idea down immediately.

Somehow, over the years of polarisation and court cases and start-stop demands for a constitutional showdown, the idea that the UK government can simply ignore the demands of the majority of MSPs - at least when it comes to independence - has become an everyday feature of political life.

Perhaps that is why Mr Yousaf is now looking at playing a longer game, focusing on grassroots support rather than forcing the issue with Downing Street.

Alister Jack has served three Tory prime ministers as Scottish Secretary


Another constant during the revolving-door era at Downing Street has been Alister Jack, the Scottish Secretary who has now served three prime ministers.

On his watch, UK government's approach to dealing with devolution has developed through something known as "muscular unionism" into Arnold Schwarzenegger level body-building.

That is partly about being seen to do things for people on the ground in Scotland - directly funding local projects and infrastructure. But it has also involved more than a few clashes.

The previously iron lines of the Sewel Convention - that the UK government would "not normally" legislate across devolved areas - were breached during rows over Brexit. It may not be entirely normal, but it is hardly rare nowadays.

Precedent was similarly busted when the UK government used a dusty section of the Scotland Act for the first time ever to block Holyrood's gender reform legislation.

And UK ministers had few qualms about holding up the Deposit Return Scheme via the Internal Market Act - another piece of post-Brexit legislation detested by Scottish ministers.

The government in Edinburgh has loudly decried each of these moves, and indeed is challenging the blocking of the gender reforms in the courts.

Mr Yousaf might hope to shift relations onto a different footing in time, but on his first visit to London earlier this week he was received in Mr Sunak's House of Commons office rather than being afforded the diplomatic pomp of Downing Street, and the pair didn't even pose for a picture together.

Lord Frost was the man behind Boris Johnson's Brexit negotiations - but Scottish Tories reject his influence now


Constitutional conflict between the two governments has become normalised, and it seems the UK government side are ever-less shy about throwing their weight around.

There are limits, though.

Scottish Tories are running a mile from the position of Lord David Frost - the former Brexit negotiator who penned a column suggesting that devolution could be rolled back.

That successfully baited more than a few clicks, but was roundly rejected by Conservative MSPs as the haverings of a man whose period of influence ended a couple of prime ministers ago.

They know that kind of talk can only be damaging to their prospects in Scotland, where devolution has become pretty well entrenched.

Lord Frost's intervention raises questions about whether that message resonates as strongly among Tory politicians south of the border.

Mr Sunak read the room at conference and lauded Holyrood's range of powers from the stage. His line is that the SNP isn't making great enough use of them, not that they should be stripped away.


But the prime minister did not display pitch-perfect understanding of Scottish politics during his trip to Glasgow - which it turns out was so brief because he was also addressing the Welsh Conservative conference later the same day.

Mr Sunak walked into a needless and self-inflicted row with the Holyrood press pack after his team attempted to restrict access to a post-speech media huddle.

One staffer - presumably jokingly - suggested to the hacks that they could delete their tweets about the bust-up after the attempted restrictions were roundly ignored.

Journalists famously take well to such suggestions from central government, so the predictable end result was even more tweets.

In the end the press were allowed access to a session which lasted about as long as Mr Sunak's mini-speech.

It all added up to a gathering which was set up to revel in the struggles of a rival party - but which underlined that political difficulties are by no means unique to the SNP.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
For 36 Years, He Scammed About 300 Luxury Hotels — Until He Was Caught
Britain Nationalises British Steel to Protect Scunthorpe Production and Strategic Supply
Andy Burnham Takes Labour Leadership and Prepares to Become Britain’s Seventh Prime Minister in a Decade
Tech Companies Want to Move Computing Off Your Screen and Onto Your Body
White House Teleprompter Operator Earned More Than $100,000 From Bets Linked to the President's Speeches
French Prime Minister Survives No-Confidence Vote After Controversial Budget Cuts
European Commission Opens Excessive Deficit Procedure Against France
French Senate Blocks Key Immigration Reform Measures
French Government Pushes EU Action Against Ultra-Fast Fashion Imports
French Parliament Debates Expanded Autonomy Powers for Corsica
France Reopens Autonomy Talks With New Caledonia After Months of Unrest
Bordeaux Wine Producers Seek Three Hundred Million Euro Aid Package After Export Collapse
French Farmers Block Spain Border Crossings Over Imported Food Competition
Cannes Film Festival Bans Fully Artificial Intelligence-Generated Films From Competition
TotalEnergies Shifts More Than Three Billion Euros of Green Investment From Europe to the United States
LVMH Chief Executive Bernard Arnault Presents Succession Plan for Luxury Empire
Kering Reports Fifteen Percent Revenue Drop as Chinese Luxury Demand Weakens
Sanofi Reports Positive Results From Messenger RNA Respiratory Vaccine Trials
France Places Energy Price Caps Under Review to Protect Households Through Winter
EDF Connects Two New Nuclear Reactors to France’s Electricity Grid
Mistral Secures European Commission Contract for Sovereign Artificial Intelligence Models
Renault Opens Next-Generation Electric Battery Plant in Northern France
Air France Signs Two Billion Euro Sustainable Aviation Fuel Deal to Cut Emissions
Marseille Launches Three Billion Euro Port Expansion to Strengthen Mediterranean Trade Role
French-Owned Ubisoft Announces Global Restructuring With Nearly One Thousand Job Cuts
National Railway Operator Suspends Artificial Intelligence Ticket Pricing System After Consumer Backlash
United Kingdom to Ban Sales of High-Caffeine Energy Drinks to Under-Sixteens
Home Office Designates Iranian and Russian Paramilitary Groups as National Security Threats
National Health Service Launches Housing Plan to Retain London Healthcare Workers
British Heatwave Fuels Wildfires and Emergency Evacuations in Scotland
United Kingdom and Estonia Sign Defence Agreement to Strengthen NATO’s Eastern Flank
United Kingdom Cuts Bilateral Aid to African Nations by More Than Eighty Percent
Bank of England Overhauls Banking Rules to Encourage More Lending to Businesses
United Kingdom and India Free Trade Agreement Enters Into Force, Reshaping Bilateral Economic Ties
Andy Burnham Confirmed as New Labour Leader and Prime Minister-Designate
UK Government Faces Pressure Over Extreme Heat Workplace Rules
Lewisham Council Blocks Cooperation With Home Office Immigration Enforcement
UK Parliament Investigates Growing Pressures on Scotch Whisky Industry
Teen Hackers Sentenced Over Thirty-Nine Million Pound Transport for London Cyber Attack
Ministry of Defence Acquires Scottish Fuel Terminal to Strengthen Royal Navy Operations
Bank of England Eases Rules as Economic Growth Remains Weak
Bank of England Governor Warns Andy Burnham on Britain’s Long Economic Stagnation
UK Defence Ministry Buys Scottish Fuel Terminal to Secure Naval Energy Supplies
UK Secures Access to European Defence Contracts Through Ukraine Support Deal
Bank of England Plans Easier Capital Rules to Encourage More Lending
Met Office Says England and Wales Have Already Broken Summer Heat Records
Counter-Terrorism Police Lead Investigation Into Murder of Former Minister Ann Widdecombe
UK Government Nationalises British Steel to Protect Domestic Steel Production
French National Assembly Overrides Senate to Pass Historic Assisted-Dying Legislation
Spanish Prime Minister's Wife Ordered to Stand Trial as Corruption Probes Encircle Governing Party
×