London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025

US threat to quit Iraq leaves its allies in the lurch

US threat to quit Iraq leaves its allies in the lurch

Mike Pompeo, Donald Trump’s secretary of state, last month threatened to withdraw the US embassy from Baghdad - unless Iraq’s government cracked down on attacks by powerful Iran-backed Shia paramilitaries on the diplomatic compound and US bases.
This threat led to speculation in Iraq and across the Middle East that the Trump administration was clearing the decks for a major attack on the Tehran-backed militias - thereby delivering a boost to the president’s re-election chances in November.

Be that as it may, the militia attacks are continuing and may anyway attract US air strikes against the militias contained within the umbrella group of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, or Hashd al-Shaabi. There have been dozens of these militia attacks, including on the airports at Baghdad and Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, on a British diplomatic convoy in the capital, and an American supply convoy from Kuwait.

These hits may well not be instigated by Iran. The Islamic Republic is reeling under US economic sanctions reimposed by Mr Trump. The US assassination of the top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in January, along with Iraqi militia chieftain Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, also undoubtedly weakened Iran.

Paradoxically, however, it also removed the two people who could control the Shia militias, which are tens of thousands-strong and now appear to be off the leash.

Mr Pompeo’s threat is indicative of how the Trump administration’s erratic policies continue in Iraq and across the Middle East.

In this instance, it is diplomatically and strategically inept for the US to threaten to do just what Iran and its Arab proxies want it to do: withdraw from Iraq. Moreover, doing so would jeopardise the future of an already failing state, as Iraqi leaders have warned.

Even if the threat proves empty, Washington’s implied lack of commitment to Iraq is bad news for Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the Iraqi prime minister and former spy chief. A caretaker leader until next year’s elections, he is trying to bring the militias under army control and prevent Iraq becoming a battleground between the US and Iran.

Mr Kadhimi, who has qualified support from both sides, seemed to have steadied his wobbly position after meeting Mr Trump at the White House in August. Yet, last month - shortly before Mr Pompeo’s threat to withdraw the embassy - the administration said it was cutting the 5,000-plus US troops based in Iraq by roughly half.

Many, if not most, Iraqis want an end to political tutelage and military intrusion by both Americans and Iranians. Emblematic of this is Moqtada al-Sadr, a Shia cleric whose party unexpectedly came first in Iraq’s previous elections in 2018.

Reincarnated as an Iraqi nationalist in those 2018 elections, Mr Sadr allied his mass following in the Shia underclass with the Iraqi Communist party and secular civil society groups, and called for US and Iranian withdrawal.

Then, last autumn, popular anger in Iraq exploded in a civic uprising in the capital and across the Shia south. The outraged citizens of oil-rich Iraq have revolted before against a corrupt political elite unable to provide basic services such as electricity and water, let alone basic security against Sunni jihadi outrages and Shia militia lawlessness.

But this time they fought - with the loss of over 500 lives - in nationalist protest against Tehran and its henchmen turning their country into an Iranian protectorate.

Mr Kadhimi appears to understand and sympathise with the protesters, and their opposition to the spoils system known as muhasasa, the heart of a failing state based on the looting of resources rather than sharing of power. As they rev up their campaign once more against nearly two decades of political disaster, the prime minister offers some hope to Iraqis.

The US practically gifted Iraq to Iran by invading it in 2003, toppling a Sunni minority regime in a Shia majority country, and paving the way to an al-Qaeda insurgency. That was defeated but its residue fused with former Saddam Hussein loyalists into Isis, the jihadi blackshirts who took a third of the country in 2014.

The present Iraqi prime minister is struggling against this bleak legacy and now is not the moment to abandon him. Leaving Mr Kadhimi in the lurch guarantees a return to the pursuit of factional advantage instead of the public good, and of zero-sum sectarianism rather than power-sharing.

It will also reopen Iraq’s gates to a jihadi comeback in a country already struggling to stay alive. Iraqis deserve better.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
US Administration Under President Donald Trump Reportedly Lifts Ban on Ukraine’s Use of Storm Shadow Missiles Against Russia
‘Frightening’ First Night in Prison for Sarkozy: Inmates Riot and Shout ‘Little Nicolas’
White House Announces No Imminent Summit Between Trump and Putin
US and Qatar Warn EU of Trade and Energy Risks from Tough Climate Regulation
Apple Challenges EU Digital Markets Act Crackdown in Landmark Court Battle
Nicolas Sarkozy begins five-year prison term at La Santé in Paris
Japan stocks surge to record as Sanae Takaichi becomes Prime Minister
This Is How the 'Heist of the Century' Was Carried Out at the Louvre in Seven Minutes: France Humiliated as Crown with 2,000 Diamonds Vanishes
China Warns UK of ‘Consequences’ After Delay to London Embassy Approval
France’s Wealthy Shift Billions to Luxembourg and Switzerland Amid Tax and Political Turmoil
"Sniper Position": Observation Post Targeting 'Air Force One' Found Before Trump’s Arrival in Florida
Shouting Match at the White House: 'Trump Cursed, Threw Maps, and Told Zelensky – "Putin Will Destroy You"'
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
×