London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025

Ukraine crisis brings British intelligence out of the shadows

Ukraine crisis brings British intelligence out of the shadows

Analysis: warnings of Russian invasion issued in bid to shape the narrative and win information war with Kremlin

British intelligence, so used to operating in the shadows, has been thrust into the spotlight during the Ukraine crisis, cited by Boris Johnson on Wednesday to warn that Russian troop numbers were still increasing or by the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, last month to warn of a possible coup in Kyiv.

As the crisis has intensified, the warnings have, if anything, become even less subtle. An extraordinary video released on Thursday by the Ministry of Defence, billed in capital letters as an “intelligence update”, included a Dad’s Army-style map showing a possible Russian invasion plan and other assessments aimed at the general public.


A female narrator carefully intones “our intelligence tells us” that Russia has been rapidly been building up forces near Ukraine’s border – as has been documented by independent analysts – and that “an invasion could happen within days”. On Twitter the two-minute clip has been viewed more than 66,000 times.

Behind the scenes the effort has been matched by a string of off-the-record briefings from which information has emerged, supported by quotes sourced to officials. It marks an unusually determined and focused effort to seize control of the Ukraine story from the Kremlin, traditionally considered expert in what is sometimes described as information warfare.

“It’s a very different approach from the past, when intelligence and information was more closely guarded,” said Prof Malcolm Chalmers of the Rusi thinktank. “What Britain and the west have learned from the last Ukraine crisis in 2014 is that if you don’t actively use your intelligence to shape the narrative, then you will lose ground to Russia.”

The Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called on western media to publish a schedule of imminent invasions so she could plan her holidays.


Russia’s seizure of the Crimea in 2014 appeared to come as something of a surprise to an apparently sleepy Nato. And the image of the military alliance was further damaged last summer during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, where the idea of a Taliban takeover was barely mentioned or discussed until the fall of Kabul.

This time the thinking is that highlighting Vladimir Putin’s possible intentions leaves less room for Kremlin deniability. The west has for some time considered that Moscow is seeking to manufacture a provocation in Ukraine, a false flag, to justify an intervention – a concern that has heightened following false claims by Putin this week that there was “genocide” against Russians in Donbas.

The UK supported US intelligence claims that Russia was considering making a “very graphic” video showing a faked drone attack to justify military intervention. “We are trying to expose Russian intent,” said one anonymous western official on Friday. They argued that any embarrassment from being wrong would be a small price to pay if Ukraine was not attacked.

Nevertheless, bandying about intelligence assessments in the public domain can be fraught with difficulties. They are usually based around simple, headline-worthy conclusions – judging that a Russian attack was “highly likely”, as the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said last weekend. But often these come with little or no supporting evidence, making it hard to convince a public who can still remember the exaggerated accusations made about Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the run-up to the 2003 war.

Russia, too, is ready to exploit misjudgments. This week Kremlin officials gleefully pointed out that no invasion of Ukraine came on Wednesday after some unwisely precise predictions had emerged from the US over the weekend. Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called on western media “to publish the schedule for our upcoming invasions for the year” so that she could plan her holidays.

Yet the reality is that in the era of social media, full of analysts and commentators making their own judgments about satellite imagery and online videos, relative silence for Britain’s secretive intelligence community is not an option. “Communications and the information space is one of those areas you have to contest,” said one Whitehall insider, one Dad’s Army-style visual a time.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Hong Kong Industry Group Calls for HK$20 Billion Support Fund to Ease Property Market Stress
Joe Biden’s Post-Presidency Speaking Fees Face Weak Demand amid Corporate Reluctance
Charlie Kirk's murder will break the left's hateful cancel tactics
Kash Patel erupts at ‘buffoon’ Sen. Adam Schiff over Russiagate: ‘You are the biggest fraud’
Homeland Security says Emmy speech ‘fanning the flames of hatred’ after Einbinder’s ‘F— ICE’ remark
Charlie Kirk’s Alleged Assassin Tyler Robinson Faces Death Penalty as Charges Formally Announced
Actor, director, environmentalist Robert Redford dies at 89
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
JD Vance Says There Is “No Unity” with Those Who Celebrate Charlie Kirk’s Killing, and he is right!
Trump sues the 'New York Times' for an astronomical sum of 15 billion dollars
Florida Hospital Welcomes Its Largest-Ever Baby: Annan, Nearly Fourteen Pounds at Birth
U.S. and Britain Poised to Finalize Over $10 Billion in High-Tech, Nuclear and Defense Deals During Trump State Visit
China Finds Nvidia Violated Antitrust Laws in Mellanox Deal, Deepens Trade Tensions with US
US Air Force Begins Modifications on Qatar-Donated Jet Amid Plans to Use It as Air Force One
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
Elon Musk Retakes Lead as World’s Richest After Brief Ellison Surge
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
London Daily Podcast: London Massive Pro Democracy Rally, Musk Support, UK Economic Data and Premier League Results Mark Eventful Weekend
This Week in AI: Meta’s Superintelligence Push, xAI’s Ten Billion-Dollar Raise, Genesis AI’s Robotics Ambitions, Microsoft Restructuring, Amazon’s Million-Robot Milestone, and Google’s AlphaGenome Update
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Musk calls for new UK government at huge pro-democracy rally in London, but Britons have been brainwashed to obey instead of fighting for their human rights
Elon Musk responds to post calling for the murder of Erika Kirk, widow of Charlie Kirk: 'Either we fight back or they will kill us'
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
USA: Office Depot Employees Refused to Print Poster in Memory of Charlie Kirk – and Were Fired
Proposed U.S. Bill Would Allow Civil Suits Against Judges Who Release Repeat Violent Offenders
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
French Debt Downgrade Piles Pressure on Macron’s New Prime Minister
US and UK Near Tech, Nuclear and Whisky Deals Ahead of Trump Trip
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
Anesthesiologist Left Operation Mid-Surgery to Have Sex with Nurse
Tens of Thousands of Young Chinese Get Up Every Morning and Go to Work Where They Do Nothing
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
The German Owner of Politico Mathias Döpfner Eyes Further U.S. Media Expansion After Axel Springer Restructuring
Suspect Arrested: Utah Man in Custody for Charlie Kirk’s Fatal Shooting
In a politically motivated trial: Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years for Plotting Coup After 2022 Defeat
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Turkish authorities seize leading broadcaster amid fraud and tax investigation
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
ChatGPT CEO signals policy to alert authorities over suicidal youth after teen’s death
The British legal mafia hit back: Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
Surpassing Musk: Larry Ellison becomes the richest man in the world
Embarrassment for Starmer: He fired the ambassador photographed on Epstein’s 'pedophile island'
Manhunt after 'skilled sniper' shot Charlie Kirk. Footage: Suspect running on rooftop during panic
Effective Protest Results: Nepal’s Prime Minister Resigns as Youth-Led Unrest Shakes the Nation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
King Charles and Prince Harry Share First In-Person Moment in 19 Months
×