London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Feb 17, 2026

UK Standard of Living Falls as Recession Deepens Amid Inflation Crisis

UK Standard of Living Falls as Recession Deepens Amid Inflation Crisis

The dual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis caused by sanctions on Russia have rattled consumer confidence and sent inflation soaring — prompting a wave of strikes over pay that have further hit the retail and hospitality sectors.
British families have seen their standard of living fall for a fourth quarter in a row as double-digit inflation cuts into their spending power.

New figures from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) released on Thursday said disposable income had fallen by an average 0.5 per cent in the July-September period — while real-terms incomes had fallen by 3.1 per cent compared to a year earlier.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which advises the treasury and the chancellor of the exchequer, has predicted earnings will be eroded by seven per cent over two years to the first quarter of 2024, which would effectively turn the clock back a decade on spending power.

At the same time, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter, slightly more than the predicted 0.2 per cent drop.

Overall, the ONS said the economy had shrunk by 0.8 per cent compared to before the pandemic — twice the previous estimate of 0.4 per cent.

Thomas Pugh, an economist at the audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, said the economic slump could be worse than that during the early-90s global downturn.

""The UK is almost certainly already in a year-long recession that may prove to be deeper than that experienced in the early 1990s," Pugh said. "The squeeze on household real incomes will intensify as rising interest rates join soaring inflation."

Inflation, fuelled by a combination of fiscal easing during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown slump and the energy crisis caused by Western sanctions on Russia, is currently running at their highest in over 40 years.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate was 10.7 per cent year-on-year in November, down from 11.1 per cent the previous month. When housing costing costs were factored in, the rate was 9.3 per cent, down from 9.6 per cent in October.

That has provoked a wave of strikes across multiple sectors of the economy, from transport and post to dockworkers, now joined by nurses and ambulance staff in the last week before Christmas — seriously affecting retail and hospitality business.

Trade union members have rejected pay offers of around five per cent as an effective wage cut, while state and private-sector employers insist they cannot afford more.

Consumer spending also fell in the third quarter, by 1.1 per cent. Business investment was down by 2.5 per cent, far more than expected.

On the plus side, the number of people aged 16 to 64 in employment rose slightly on the same time last year, to 75.6 per cent — although that figure includes part-time and zero-hours contract workers who are paid for as little as one hour per week. The ratio of directly-employed to self-employed people also rose.

Deepening Recession

Meanwhile the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), the body that represents big business in the UK, warned that the recession would only deepen in the fourth quarter — traditionally the season of Christmas splurging.

It said economic activity had fallen in the fourth quarter twice as fast as in the previous three months, despite an extra bank holiday in September for Queen Elizabeth II's funeral depressing third-quarter takings.

“Underlying momentum remains poor,” the CBI's report said on Thursday. “Hints of a downturn in our surveys chime with recent GDP data.”
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Markets Signal Opportunity as Starmer Confronts Intensifying Political Pressure
Trump Criticises Newsom’s UK Climate Pact, Defends Federal Authority Over Foreign Engagements
UK’s Top Prosecutor Says ‘No One Is Above the Law’ as Police Review Claims Against Ex-Prince Andrew
Businessman Adam Brooks weighs in on the reports that the US is set to help Hamit Coskun flee the UK, over free speech concerns
U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi Releases 3.5 Million Pages of Jeffrey Epstein Case Files
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio Comment on European allies report blaming Russia for killing late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny using toxin from poison dart frogs
Eighty-Year-Old Lottery Winner Sentenced to 16.5 Years for Drug Trafficking
UK Quran Burner May Receive Asylum in the US Amid Legal Challenges
Rubio Calls for Sweeping U.N. Reform, Saying It Has Failed to End Wars in Gaza and Ukraine
10,000 Condoms Distributed at Winter Olympics 2026 Athlete Village Depleted Within 72 Hours
Poland's President Advocates for Evaluating Independent Nuclear Weapons Development
Prince William Meets Saudi Crown Prince as Epstein-Andrew Fallout Casts Shadow
Starmer Calls for Renewed ‘Hard Power’ Investment at European Security Summit
UK Police Establish National Taskforce to Handle Domestic Epstein-Linked Allegations
UK Court Rules Ban on Palestine Action Unlawful in Major Free Speech Test
UK Faces Prospect of Net Migration Turning Negative as Economic Impact Looms
Mayor of Serdobsk in Russia’s Penza Region Resigns After Housing Certificates Granted to Migrant Family Trigger Public Outcry
Pentagon Reviews Anthropic Partnership After Claude AI Reportedly Used in Operation Targeting Nicolás Maduro
President Donald Trump and Hip-Hop’s Political Realignment: Pardons, Public Endorsements, and the Struggle Over Cultural Influence
China’s EV Makers Face Mandatory Return to Physical Buttons and Door Handles in Driver-Distraction Safety Overhaul
Goldman Sachs and DP World Executive Resignations: Elite-Reputation Risk and Corporate Governance Fallout From the Epstein Disclosures
‘Amelia’: The UK Government’s Anti-Extremism Game Villain Who Became a Protest Symbol
Peter Mandelson Asked to Testify Before US Congress Over Jeffrey Epstein Links
Walmart's Earnings and UK Economic Data Highlight Upcoming Financial Trends
UK Green Party Considering Proposal to Legalize Heroin for an Inclusive Society
SpaceX's New Vision: Lunar City Takes Precedence Over Mars Colonization
OpenAI and DeepCent Superintelligence Race: Artificial General Intelligence and AI Agents as a National Security Arms Race
Document Suggests Prince Andrew Shared UK Briefing on Afghan Investment Opportunities with Jeffrey Epstein
We will protect them from the digital Wild West.’ Another country will ban social media for under-16s
McDonald's Shortens Breakfast Hours in Australia Due to Egg Shortage
Heineken announces cut of 6,000 jobs due to declining beer demand
Beijing Brands UK Hong Kong Visa Expansion ‘Despicable and Reprehensible’ After Jimmy Lai Sentencing
Tesco Chief Warns UK Is ‘Sleepwalking’ Toward a Joblessness Crisis
Trump’s ‘Act of Great Stupidity’ Comment on UK Chagos Deal Reverberates Through Diplomacy and Strategy
New U.S. filings say Jeffrey Epstein repaid Les Wexner one hundred million dollars after theft allegation
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick acknowledges 2012 visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island as lawmakers scrutinise past ties
Helsing and Stark Defence loitering-munition drones and Germany’s race to industrialise battlefield autonomy
UK orders deletion of Courtsdesk court-data archive, reigniting the fight over who controls public justice records
UK Police Review Fresh Claims Involving Prince Andrew as Senior Royals Respond to Epstein Files
Keir Starmer’s Premiership Faces Unprecedented Strain as Epstein Fallout Deepens
Starmer Vows to Stay in Office as UK Government Faces Turmoil After Epstein Fallout
China and UK Signal Tentative Reset with Commitment to Steadier, Professionally Managed Relations
UK Confirms Imminent Increase in ETA Fee to £20 as Entry Rules Tighten
UK Signals Possible Seizure of Russia-Linked ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker in Escalation of Sanctions Enforcement
Epstein Scandal Piles Unprecedented Pressure on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Leadership
UK’s ‘Most Romantic Village’ Celebrates Valentine’s Day and Explores the Festival’s Rich History
The Implications of Expanding Voting Rights to Non-EU Foreign Residents in France
Ghislaine Maxwell to Testify Before US Congress on February 9
Al.com Acquired by Crypto.com Founder for $70 Million
Apple iPhone Lockdown Mode blocks FBI data access in journalist device seizure
×