London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Mar 17, 2026

UK Standard of Living Falls as Recession Deepens Amid Inflation Crisis

UK Standard of Living Falls as Recession Deepens Amid Inflation Crisis

The dual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis caused by sanctions on Russia have rattled consumer confidence and sent inflation soaring — prompting a wave of strikes over pay that have further hit the retail and hospitality sectors.
British families have seen their standard of living fall for a fourth quarter in a row as double-digit inflation cuts into their spending power.

New figures from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) released on Thursday said disposable income had fallen by an average 0.5 per cent in the July-September period — while real-terms incomes had fallen by 3.1 per cent compared to a year earlier.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which advises the treasury and the chancellor of the exchequer, has predicted earnings will be eroded by seven per cent over two years to the first quarter of 2024, which would effectively turn the clock back a decade on spending power.

At the same time, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter, slightly more than the predicted 0.2 per cent drop.

Overall, the ONS said the economy had shrunk by 0.8 per cent compared to before the pandemic — twice the previous estimate of 0.4 per cent.

Thomas Pugh, an economist at the audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, said the economic slump could be worse than that during the early-90s global downturn.

""The UK is almost certainly already in a year-long recession that may prove to be deeper than that experienced in the early 1990s," Pugh said. "The squeeze on household real incomes will intensify as rising interest rates join soaring inflation."

Inflation, fuelled by a combination of fiscal easing during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown slump and the energy crisis caused by Western sanctions on Russia, is currently running at their highest in over 40 years.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate was 10.7 per cent year-on-year in November, down from 11.1 per cent the previous month. When housing costing costs were factored in, the rate was 9.3 per cent, down from 9.6 per cent in October.

That has provoked a wave of strikes across multiple sectors of the economy, from transport and post to dockworkers, now joined by nurses and ambulance staff in the last week before Christmas — seriously affecting retail and hospitality business.

Trade union members have rejected pay offers of around five per cent as an effective wage cut, while state and private-sector employers insist they cannot afford more.

Consumer spending also fell in the third quarter, by 1.1 per cent. Business investment was down by 2.5 per cent, far more than expected.

On the plus side, the number of people aged 16 to 64 in employment rose slightly on the same time last year, to 75.6 per cent — although that figure includes part-time and zero-hours contract workers who are paid for as little as one hour per week. The ratio of directly-employed to self-employed people also rose.

Deepening Recession

Meanwhile the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), the body that represents big business in the UK, warned that the recession would only deepen in the fourth quarter — traditionally the season of Christmas splurging.

It said economic activity had fallen in the fourth quarter twice as fast as in the previous three months, despite an extra bank holiday in September for Queen Elizabeth II's funeral depressing third-quarter takings.

“Underlying momentum remains poor,” the CBI's report said on Thursday. “Hints of a downturn in our surveys chime with recent GDP data.”
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Western Allies Urge Restraint as Israel Weighs Expanded Ground Operation in Lebanon
Trump Warns NATO Faces ‘Very Bad’ Future Without Stronger Allied Support in Iran Conflict
UK Minister Says Britain Not Bound to Support Every Demand From U.S. President
Starmer Tells Trump Britain Will Not Be Drawn Into Wider Iran War
Starmer Tells Trump Britain Will Not Be Drawn Into Wider Iran War
UK Set to Introduce Steel Tariffs of Up to 50 Percent in New Industrial Strategy
European Governments Decline Trump’s Call to Send Warships to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Fears Over Iran Conflict Weigh on UK Consumer Confidence
Starmer Says UK Working With Allies on Hormuz Shipping Plan After Trump Raises Pressure
Iran War and Energy Shock Shake Britain’s Economy and Political Debate
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak at UK University Leaves Two Dead and Several Seriously Ill
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak at UK University Leaves Two Dead and Several Seriously Ill
King Charles and Queen Camilla Share Personal Tributes to Their Mothers on UK Mother’s Day
Prince William Honors Princess Diana with Mother’s Day Tribute
UK Economy Stalls in January as Households Cut Back on Eating Out
AI-Generated Singer Becomes Viral Voice for Iranians With New Anthem
London Private Club Founder Plans Exclusive Palm Beach Venue Near Trump’s Mar-a-Lago
Ed Davey Urges Britain to Build Fully Independent Nuclear Missile Capability
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
US Treasury Links British Polo Patrons to Alleged Venezuelan Oil Proceeds Laundering Scheme
Hundreds Gather in London Despite Ban on Annual Pro-Palestinian March
Two Dead and Multiple Students Seriously Ill After Invasive Meningitis Outbreak at UK University
UK Considers Deploying Ships and Mine-Hunting Drones to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Starmer and Trump Discuss Urgent Need to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Visit Draws Mixed Reaction From Local Communities
Trump Calls on France and UK to Help Safeguard Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route
Boris Johnson Labels Bitcoin a ‘Ponzi Scheme’, Sparking Debate in Crypto World
UK Considers Targeted Aid for Vulnerable Households as Energy Costs Rise
Stellantis Urges Immediate Review of UK Electric Vehicle Sales Targets
Home Office Reverses Course to Allow Some Dual Nationals to Enter UK Using EU Passports
Reform UK Proposes Replacing Top Civil Servants With Officials Aligned to Government Agenda
Netflix Adds Critically Acclaimed ‘Best Film of 2025’ With Perfect Rotten Tomatoes Score
‘The Sums Don’t Add Up’: UK Farmers Hit by Soaring Costs as Iran War Disrupts Global Supplies
Confidential UK Biobank Health Records Found Online After Researchers Accidentally Expose Data
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Middle East War Highlights Strategic Importance of Strong UK–Ireland Cooperation
Weak Growth Signals UK Economy Was Faltering Even Before Middle East Energy Shock
Marks & Spencer Tops UK Fashion Retail Rankings as Most Considered Brand
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Royal Navy to Acquire Twenty Uncrewed Surface Vessels for Autonomous Warfare Testing
Russia Summons British and French Envoys After Ukrainian Storm Shadow Strike on Strategic Facility
Starmer Confirms Britain Will Maintain Sanctions on Russia Despite U.S. Policy Shift
UK Moves to Refine AI Definition in Investment Security Reform
UK Economy Stalls in January as Growth Unexpectedly Falls to Zero
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
×