London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Sep 20, 2026

UK may already be in recession - Bank of England

UK may already be in recession - Bank of England

The Bank of England has raised interest rates from 1.75% to 2.25% - the highest level for 14 years - and warned the UK may already be in a recession.

The central bank had previously expected the economy to grow between July and September but it now believes it will shrink by 0.1%.

It is the Bank's seventh rate rise in a row as it tries to tame soaring prices.

It takes borrowing costs to their highest since 2008, when the global banking system faced collapse.

Inflation - the pace at which prices rise - is currently at its highest rate for nearly 40 years, leaving many people facing hardship.

Prices are also widely predicted to head higher in October, despite a government plan to limit soaring gas and electricity prices for households and businesses.

Raising interest rates makes it more expensive to borrow which should, in theory, encourage people to spend less and cool prices.

But many households with mortgages will see their costs rise. People on a typical tracker mortgage will have to pay about £49 more a month, while those on standard variable rate mortgages will see a £31 increase.

Those on fixed-rate deals will not be immediately affected, although their costs could jump when their deals come up for renewal.

The Bank now expects the UK economy to shrink between July and September. This comes after the economy already shrank slightly between April and June and will push the UK into recession, defined as when an economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters.

It said a smaller-than-expected bounce back in July from the June bank holiday to celebrate the Queen's Platinum Jubilee and the additional bank holiday in September for the Queen's state funeral had both hit the economy.

The Bank, however, said it now expected inflation to not rise as high as it originally expected, saying the government's help on energy bills for households and firms would help limit soaring prices.


It now expects inflation to peak at just under 11% in October, having previously forecast it would reach 13% next month.

Nevertheless, inflation is currently nearly five times the Bank of England's 2% target and even if it peaks in October, it is expected to remain above 10% "over the following few months" before starting to fall.

As the Bank acts to calm inflation, the new chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is preparing to announce a "mini-budget" on Friday when he is expected to cut taxes and reveal other measures to boost economic activity. There has been some concern that the plans could fan inflation.

On Thursday the Bank said: "Should the outlook suggest more persistent inflationary pressures, including from stronger demand, the [rate-setting] committee will respond forcefully, as necessary."

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics. said: "That new 'stronger demand' bit seems like a not-so-subtle reference to the loosening in fiscal policy that's expected to be announced tomorrow.

"In short, the Bank has indicated it will raise rates further to offset some of the boost to demand from the government's fiscal plans."

Some economists had expected the Bank to lift rates by 0.75 percentage points this month, in line with similar moves by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and three of the MPC's nine members voted for such a rise.


'Nothing left to cut back'

In Grimsby, self-employed auditor Kristine Green said she had "nothing left to cut back on" as she struggled to cover the monthly cost of her variable rate mortgage.

She said her repayments had already gone up four or five times in the past year.

"There were two instances where the increases happened in such quick succession, I didn't even get a letter about it from my mortgage provider."

She said with the latest increase on Thursday, her mortgage would soon be edging on £460-470 per month, about £100 more than what she was paying this time last year.

Jonathan Fell is the managing director of the Ice Cream Farm in Cheshire


Higher interest rates will also drive up borrowing costs for businesses, many of which already face crippling energy and fuel bills.

Jonathan Fell, managing director of family theme park the Ice Cream Farm in Cheshire, said he had taken out millions of pounds in loans to develop the business in recent years.

Although some were on fixed five-year terms, an emergency government loan he was granted during the pandemic follows the base rate set by the Bank of England.

"Any further rate increases would be hugely worrying," he said. "It could actually finish the business depending on how far it goes."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Ed Sheeran Tour Faces Backlash After Macklemore Is Removed Over Pro-Palestinian Remarks
Vandalism of Traffic Cameras Intensifies Across Parts of England
Nearly 300 Evacuated as Fire Hits Grand Burstin Hotel in Folkestone
King Charles Warns AI Executives About Risks From Uncontrolled Technology
Church of England Apologises for Role in Historical Forced Adoption Practices
UK Debate Over Online Speech Intensifies After Arrest Figures Draw Scrutiny
Oxfordshire Village Holds Symbolic Independence Vote Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
Nigel Farage and Richard Tice Sue National Crime Agency Over Alleged Banking Data Leaks
Apple Introduces Stricter Age Checks for UK Accounts
BBC Cash Reserves Fall 66% to £125 Million as Broadcaster Restructures
McLaren Announces £500 Million UK Investment and Plans 1,000 Jobs
Green Party Wins Historic Gorton and Denton By-Election as Labour Falls to Third
Burnham Government Prepares October Budget Under Growing Fiscal Pressure
UK Energy Suppliers Pull Fixed-Price Deals as Wholesale Markets Turn More Volatile
Bank of England Holds Rates at 3.75% as Middle East Energy Shock Raises Inflation Risks
Addison Lee Founder Loses £20 Million UK Tax Tribunal Case
BrewDog Creditors Face Losses on About £190 Million of Debt
Harrods Seeks to Recover Abuse Compensation Costs From Mohamed Al Fayed’s Estate
Ed Davey Targets Reform UK as Liberal Democrat Conference Opens
Great Britain Retail Sales Rise 0.5% in August
NHS England Approves Life-Extending Treatment for Incurable Breast Cancer
Proposals to Limit NHS ADHD Diagnoses Draw Criticism From Patient Groups
Resolution Foundation Warns of Housing Cost Crunch for Low-Income UK Families
BBC Cash Reserves Fall to Decade Low as Annual Deficit Reaches £121 Million
Millisecond Software Error Triggered Major UK Air Traffic Control Disruption
Twenty Women Underwent Unnecessary Mastectomies During NHS Cancer Care
Sensitive UK Police Data Found Vulnerable to Access by Foreign Actors
British Steel Faces Renewed Pressure for a Long-Term Financial Plan
MPs Urge Government to End Thames Water Restructuring Talks With U.S. Hedge Funds
Andy Burnham Warns of Difficult UK Budget Choices as Inflation Returns to 3.1%
England Tightens School Food Standards With Restrictions on Deep-Fried and High-Sugar Foods
Oxfordshire Village Votes Symbolically to Leave UK Over Proposed Asylum Centre
Michael Marra Elected Leader of Scottish Labour
BBC Cash Reserves Fall Sharply as Financial Pressures Mount
George Osborne Calls for UK to Rejoin EU Customs Union
UK Explores Joining Canada-Led Global Defence Bank
Thirlwall Inquiry Highlights Management Failures Surrounding Lucy Letby Crimes
Parliamentary Committee Calls for New UK Law to Address AI Risks to Human Rights
UK Considers Giving Regional Mayors Greater Oversight of Water Companies
UK Opposition Presses Burnham for Stronger Response to Russian Security Threats
Reform UK Faces Scrutiny Over £72 Million in Donations as Political Finance Rules Tighten
Millisecond Software Failure Behind UK Air-Traffic Outage That Cancelled More Than 2,000 Flights
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Energy Prices Complicate Inflation Outlook
Burnham Warns of Difficult Choices in October Budget as UK Inflation Rises to 3.1%
Addison Lee Founder Loses £20.5 Million Non-Domicile Tax Case
BrewDog Creditors Face Heavy Losses After Collapse
Thirteenth Metropolitan Police Officer Dismissed Over Charing Cross Conduct
Oxfordshire Village Votes Symbolically to Leave UK Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
NHS Approves Life-Extending Treatment for Women With Incurable Breast Cancer
Software Defect Blamed for Major UK Air Traffic Disruption
×