London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Mar 07, 2026

UK may already be in recession - Bank of England

UK may already be in recession - Bank of England

The Bank of England has raised interest rates from 1.75% to 2.25% - the highest level for 14 years - and warned the UK may already be in a recession.

The central bank had previously expected the economy to grow between July and September but it now believes it will shrink by 0.1%.

It is the Bank's seventh rate rise in a row as it tries to tame soaring prices.

It takes borrowing costs to their highest since 2008, when the global banking system faced collapse.

Inflation - the pace at which prices rise - is currently at its highest rate for nearly 40 years, leaving many people facing hardship.

Prices are also widely predicted to head higher in October, despite a government plan to limit soaring gas and electricity prices for households and businesses.

Raising interest rates makes it more expensive to borrow which should, in theory, encourage people to spend less and cool prices.

But many households with mortgages will see their costs rise. People on a typical tracker mortgage will have to pay about £49 more a month, while those on standard variable rate mortgages will see a £31 increase.

Those on fixed-rate deals will not be immediately affected, although their costs could jump when their deals come up for renewal.

The Bank now expects the UK economy to shrink between July and September. This comes after the economy already shrank slightly between April and June and will push the UK into recession, defined as when an economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters.

It said a smaller-than-expected bounce back in July from the June bank holiday to celebrate the Queen's Platinum Jubilee and the additional bank holiday in September for the Queen's state funeral had both hit the economy.

The Bank, however, said it now expected inflation to not rise as high as it originally expected, saying the government's help on energy bills for households and firms would help limit soaring prices.


It now expects inflation to peak at just under 11% in October, having previously forecast it would reach 13% next month.

Nevertheless, inflation is currently nearly five times the Bank of England's 2% target and even if it peaks in October, it is expected to remain above 10% "over the following few months" before starting to fall.

As the Bank acts to calm inflation, the new chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is preparing to announce a "mini-budget" on Friday when he is expected to cut taxes and reveal other measures to boost economic activity. There has been some concern that the plans could fan inflation.

On Thursday the Bank said: "Should the outlook suggest more persistent inflationary pressures, including from stronger demand, the [rate-setting] committee will respond forcefully, as necessary."

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics. said: "That new 'stronger demand' bit seems like a not-so-subtle reference to the loosening in fiscal policy that's expected to be announced tomorrow.

"In short, the Bank has indicated it will raise rates further to offset some of the boost to demand from the government's fiscal plans."

Some economists had expected the Bank to lift rates by 0.75 percentage points this month, in line with similar moves by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and three of the MPC's nine members voted for such a rise.


'Nothing left to cut back'

In Grimsby, self-employed auditor Kristine Green said she had "nothing left to cut back on" as she struggled to cover the monthly cost of her variable rate mortgage.

She said her repayments had already gone up four or five times in the past year.

"There were two instances where the increases happened in such quick succession, I didn't even get a letter about it from my mortgage provider."

She said with the latest increase on Thursday, her mortgage would soon be edging on £460-470 per month, about £100 more than what she was paying this time last year.

Jonathan Fell is the managing director of the Ice Cream Farm in Cheshire


Higher interest rates will also drive up borrowing costs for businesses, many of which already face crippling energy and fuel bills.

Jonathan Fell, managing director of family theme park the Ice Cream Farm in Cheshire, said he had taken out millions of pounds in loans to develop the business in recent years.

Although some were on fixed five-year terms, an emergency government loan he was granted during the pandemic follows the base rate set by the Bank of England.

"Any further rate increases would be hugely worrying," he said. "It could actually finish the business depending on how far it goes."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Starmer Defends UK Role in Iran Conflict After Renewed Criticism from President Trump
Blue Owl Reveals £36 Million Exposure After Collapse of UK Lender Serving Wealthy Clients
UK Asylum Reform Plan Triggers Fierce Debate Over Border Control and Humanitarian Impact
US Stealth Bombers Head to UK Base as Trump Issues Stark Warning to Iran
UK Deputy Prime Minister Says Legal Case Could Exist for British Strikes on Iranian Missile Sites
Investigators Link Mysterious Parcel Fires Across Europe to Russian Intelligence Operation
Debate Intensifies Over Britain’s Legal Justification for US Military Operations Launched From UK Bases
Britain Faces Heightened Energy Price Risks as Iran-Linked Tensions Threaten Global Oil and Gas Supplies
British Counter-Terror Police Arrest Four Suspected of Spying on Jewish Community for Iran
Axel Springer Agrees $770 Million Deal to Acquire Britain’s Daily Telegraph
Iceland Supermarket Drops Trademark Challenge Against Icelandic Government in Long-Running Naming Dispute
UK Defence Secretary Visits Cyprus Following Scrutiny of Britain’s Response to Drone Attacks
Questions Grow Over Britain’s Military Readiness as Response to Iran Conflict Draws Scrutiny
UK Offers Failed Asylum Seeker Families Up to Forty Thousand Pounds to Leave Voluntarily
Saharan Dust Could Bring ‘Blood Rain’ to Parts of the UK as Weather Systems Shift
UK Deploys Additional Typhoon Fighter Jets to Qatar and Helicopters to Cyprus Amid Rising Middle East Tensions
Experts Urge Britain to Accelerate Renewable Energy Push as Global Conflicts Drive Up Costs
British Public Shows Strong Reluctance to Join Wider War in Iran
First UK Evacuation Flight Departs Middle East After Lengthy Delay
United Kingdom Imposes New Visa Requirements on Travelers from St. Lucia and Nicaragua
Iran Conflict Strains U.S.–U.K. Alliance as Trump and Starmer Clash Over Military Strategy
UK Interest Rates Could Rise Above Four Percent Again if Energy Shock Continues, Think Tank Warns
Starmer Defends Britain’s Iran Strategy as Badenoch Urges Stronger Military Support
Labour MP Says She Saw No Sign Husband Broke Law After Arrest in China Espionage Investigation
UK Jobless Rate Overtakes Italy’s for First Time in Years as Labour Market Weakens
United Kingdom Suspends Student Visas for Four Countries in Unprecedented Immigration Move
Campaigners Warn UK Student Visa Ban Could Push Migrants Toward Dangerous Channel Crossings
First U.K. Charter Flight for Stranded Nationals Set to Depart Oman Amid Middle East Crisis
France and United Kingdom Deploy Warships to Eastern Mediterranean as Middle East Conflict Escalates
U.K. Arrests Three Men Including Lawmaker’s Partner in Suspected China Espionage Investigation
Trump Says UK–US ‘Special Relationship’ Is Diminished Amid Middle East Dispute
UK Economic Forecasts Face Fresh Strain from Middle East Conflict and Rising Energy Costs
UK Reaffirms Close US Ties After Trump’s Public Criticism
Reeves Stresses Stability and Fiscal Discipline in UK Budget Update as Growth Outlook Shifts
UK Deploys Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon to Cyprus After Drone Strike on RAF Base
Green Party Surges Past Labour in New UK Poll as Traditional Party Support Crumbles
Majority of Britons Oppose U.S. Use of UK Military Bases in Iran Conflict
UK Intensifies Evacuation Efforts from Oman, Working with Airlines to Boost Flight Capacity
Trump Condemns UK and Spain in Unusually Sharp Rift Over Iran Military Action
Trump Repeats UK Claims That Diverge from Verified Facts Amid Diplomatic Strain
UK Arrests Prominent Figures Linked to Epstein Network as Questions Mount Over US Action
Trump Says UK ‘Took Far Too Long’ to Approve Use of Airbases for Iran Strikes
Scope of Britain’s Role in the Expanding Middle East Conflict Comes Under Scrutiny
Trump Says He Is ‘Very Disappointed’ in Starmer Over Iran Comments
U.S. Embassy in Riyadh Struck by Drones Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Starmer Confronts Strategic Test After Drone Strike Near British Base in Cyprus
Rolls-Royce Chief Signals Openness to Germany Joining UK-Led Fighter Jet Programme
UK Stocks Slip as Escalating Iran Conflict Triggers Global Market Selloff
UK Overhauls Asylum System to Make Refugee Status Temporary
Starmer Warns of ‘Reckless’ Iranian Strikes Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
×