London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 02, 2026

UK inflation: Supermarkets say price rises will ease soon

UK inflation: Supermarkets say price rises will ease soon

A drop in the cost of wholesale food prices globally has not led to falls in the prices charged by UK supermarkets.

Inflation was expected to fall below 10% last month but soaring food prices meant it fell by less than expected.

"You would expect to see [global food price falls] reflected in supermarkets but we're not there yet," the Office for National Statistics told the BBC.

The retail industry body said there was a three to nine-month lag to see price falls reflected in shops.

"As food production costs peaked in October 2022, we expect consumer food prices to start coming down over the next few months," the British Retail Consortium said.

Inflation, which measures the rate of price rises, fell to 10.1% in the year to March from 10.4% in February, driven by food prices rising at their fastest rate for 45 years.

There were big jumps in prices for products including olive oil (up 49%), milk (up 38%) and ready meals (up 21%).

Campaigners point out that rising food prices hit poorer households the hardest, as they spend a greater proportion of their income on groceries.

The war in Ukraine has driven up food prices around the world, but the UK has faced other problems on top of this - from Brexit red tape to labour shortages.

This year in particular, bad weather abroad led to shortages of some vegetables - a situation made worse by UK farmers producing less due to surging energy costs.

UK farmers have also argued that supermarkets are not paying a fair price for their produce - something the supermarkets deny.

The government's former food tsar Henry Dimbleby has said supermarkets having "fixed-price contracts" with suppliers means that when food is scarce, some producers opt to sell less to the UK and more elsewhere in Europe.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist for the Office for National Statistics, which provides the figures, said the agency did not make forecasts. But he said it was "certainly within the realm of possibility" that double digit inflation is sustained at least for another month with food prices continuing as they are.


Jane from Blackpool has found the last five to six months tough on the purse, particularly with the weekly shop.

She told the BBC's Radio Five Live that she couldn't afford to eat breakfast or lunch. "For teatime we have a jacket potato with beans. A couple of times a week we'll add cheese to that because we're feeling a little bit more flush. And on a really good occasion we'll have tuna."

For many people like Jane, higher prices across the board have meant having to run on a tighter budget.

"We got a letter last month saying our mortgage rate is going to go up again. I listen to the news in the hope the mortgage rates are going to go down or something's going to give."

Inflation in the UK remains higher than in other Western countries, including the US, Germany, France and Italy. On Wednesday, new figures showed eurozone inflation eased to 6.9% last month, from 8.5%.

Analysts at Capital Economics said UK inflation had "risen further and stayed higher than elsewhere as the UK has experienced the worst of both worlds - a big energy shock, like the euro-zone, and labour shortages - even worse than the US."

UK energy prices are likely to come down quickly, it added, but the issues in the labour market would probably persist until late 2024.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said he was still confident that inflation would fall sharply by the end of the year.

He added: "We have a plan and if we're going to reduce that pressure on families, it's absolutely essential that we stick to that plan, and we see it through so that we halve inflation this year as the prime minister has promised."

But Rachel Reeves, Labour's shadow chancellor, said: "The reality is that under the Tories our economy is weaker, prices are out of control and never have people paid so much to get so little in return."

While food prices remained stubbornly high, petrol prices eased, bringing some relief for motorists.

Unleaded petrol prices peaked at about £1.90 in July and were down below £1.50 in March.

Falling inflation doesn't mean prices are falling, but just that the rate of price rises is slowing.


Simon Mellin, founder and chief executive of The Modern Milkman, a milk delivery service, said the food industry had faced soaring costs in recent months, with milk, eggs and packaging prices all going up.

He believes that food prices will start to stabilise, but will remain at a much higher level than they were this time last year.

"I'm really unsure if food prices will drop as much as everyone expects," he told the BBC.

"I expect some reductions but I wouldn't personally expect huge reductions in the next twelve months."

He said he was trying not to pass higher prices onto customers, but added that it was a balance the business had to tread.

The Bank of England has been raising interest rates to try and curb inflation. In March, the Bank increased rates for the eleventh time in a row, taking the main rate to 4.25%.

The idea is that when people have less money to spend, they buy fewer things, reducing the demand for goods and slowing price rises.

Following the latest inflation figures, Luke Bartholomew, senior economist at abrdn, said a further rate rise next month is now "likely", with inflation pressures proving "more persistent than the Bank of England expected".

Rate rises mean higher mortgage payments for some homeowners and those with loans. But they can also benefit savers if banks pass on the higher rate to customers.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Luxury bags take over the World Cup: style, status symbol, or just showing off?
UK Parliamentary Committee Launches Inquiry Into Falling Primary School Rolls and Public Service Impact
UK House of Lords Debates Electoral Commission Powers and Political Finance Reform
UK Parliament Considers Expanding Carbon Rules to International Aviation and Shipping Emissions
UK Traffic Commissioner Revokes Hampshire Haulage Operator Licence Over Regulatory Failures
UK Parliament Examines Risks in Public Contracts Awarded to Technology Firm Palantir
UK Competition Watchdog Moves Toward More Flexible Merger Rules to Support Efficiency and Growth
UK Government Seeks Approval for £1.15 Trillion Public Spending Plan Amid Scrutiny Over Department Budgets
UK Parliament Debates Sweeping National Security and Steel Industry Nationalisation Bills
UK Government Issues Formal Apology for Historic Forced Adoption Practices and Announces £4 Million Support Scheme
UK DEFENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY TILTS TOWARD SOVEREIGN CAPABILITY AND INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT
UK ECONOMIC POLICY OUTLOOK SHAPED BY LEADERSHIP TRANSITION AND FISCAL SIGNALS
STERLING STRENGTHENS AMID SHIFTING MONETARY OUTLOOK AND GLOBAL LABOUR MARKET SIGNALS
UK HPV VACCINATION PROGRAM NEARLY ELIMINATES CERVICAL CANCER DEATH RISK IN YOUNG WOMEN
UK EXPANDS PRISON SAFETY REVIEW AS GOVERNMENT SEEKS WIDER SYSTEM REFORM
UK DRIVES DIGITAL ASSETS STRATEGY WITH NEW STABLECOIN REGULATORY MODEL
UK TO EXPAND AI INFRASTRUCTURE THROUGH NEW EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGY PARTNERSHIP
UK LAUNCHES £15 BILLION DEFENCE TECH SHIFT TOWARD ADVANCED MILITARY SYSTEMS
CIVIL SERVICE FACES SHIFT IN POWER STRUCTURE AS REGIONAL GOVERNANCE PLANS EXPAND
WHITEHALL CONSIDERS MAJOR DECENTRALISATION PLAN WITH SECOND GOVERNMENT HUB IN MANCHESTER
UK TARGETS SERVICES EXPORT GROWTH IN TRADE TALKS WITH CHINA AMID GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
POLICE WATCHDOG PROBES OFFICERS OVER HANDCUFFING OF DYING TEENAGER IN HAMPSHIRE CASE
UK REGULATORS UNVEIL DUAL OVERSIGHT FRAMEWORK FOR STABLECOINS AND DIGITAL ASSETS
KEIR STARMER ANNOUNCES £15 BILLION DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY BOOST IN FINAL MAJOR POLICY MOVE
ANDY BURNHAM SIGNALS STRICT FISCAL RULES AS LABOUR LEADERSHIP RACE SHAPES MARKET OUTLOOK
POUND STERLING HITS ONE-YEAR HIGH AS BANK OF ENGLAND SIGNALS NO IMMINENT RATE CUTS
UK Government Confirms Rejected Asylum Seekers to Remain Amid Enforcement Challenges
UK-China Economic Talks Focus on Services Trade and High-Value Sectors
Buckingham Palace Revamp Plans Unveiled to Modernise Royal and Public Facilities
Two Dead After Light Aircraft Crash in Essex Field, Investigation Underway
Princess Diana Marked at 65 With UK Tributes Reflecting on Her Public Legacy
England Teachers Face New Pay Cap Rules for Academy School Leaders Under Education Reform
Dublin Security Alert Escalates After Stabbing and Reports of Transport Disruption
UK Government Faces Scrutiny Over £10,000 Asylum Living Cost Contribution Requirement
England Prepares World Cup Knockout Match Against Democratic Republic of Congo
Northern Rail Project Warned of HS2-Style Cost Risks by UK Parliamentary Committee
UK Tightens Asylum Rules as Most Rejected Applicants Expected to Remain in Country
UK Heat Health Alert Issued as Temperatures Expected to Exceed 30°C Across England
Halifax Brand to Disappear From UK High Streets in Lloyds Banking Group Restructuring
England Teachers Receive 6.6 Percent Pay Rise Over Two Years as Schools Warn of Budget Strain
UK Defence Spending Plan Sparks Budget Clash as Regional Infrastructure Projects Face Pressure
Inquest Continues in Northern Ireland into Death of Noah Donohoe in Belfast
UK Travel Industry Calls for Suspension of New EU Border System During Peak Holiday Season
Telegraph Media Group Acquired by German Media Firm in £575 Million Deal Completion
House of Commons Warns Northern Rail Upgrade Risks Repeating High-Speed 2 Cost Overruns
UK Transport Unions Warn of Summer Strike Action Over Pay Disputes
UK Health Secretary Calls Maternity Care Review a “Watershed Moment” for NHS Reform
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over £270,000 Payment Linked to Gold Marketing Firm
Labour Government Faces Internal Division Over North Sea Oil and Gas Policy Direction
National Screening Committee Invites New Proposals for UK Health Screening Programmes
×