London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Mar 26, 2026

UK economy shrinks as outlook on recession darkens

UK economy shrinks as outlook on recession darkens

The UK economy shrank between April and June as experts forecast a gloomy outlook with recession on the horizon.

The economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

This was partly due to Covid schemes like Test and Trace ending, retail sales falling and the Queen's Platinum Jubilee bank holiday in June, it said.

The Bank of England has forecast the UK will fall into recession towards the end of the year as energy costs soar.

Despite shrinking between April and June, the UK economy avoided recession because gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in the first three months of this year.

A recession is defined as the economy getting smaller for two consecutive three-month periods.

Up until now most economists - and the Bank of England - did not expect a recession to begin until the final three months of 2022.

Many expected a small rebound in economic growth between July and September. But the latest figures from the ONS have prompted some experts to warn that recession could come sooner than they had initially thought.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said it expected the UK economy to continue falling over the next three quarters.

Capital Economics said there was now a greater risk that the economy will shrink by 0.2% between July and September before worsening.

But investment bank Goldman Sachs still predicted growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2022. A spokesperson said: "We had previously assumed a sharp bounce back in July but now expect a more muted rebound."

HSBC's forecast was more positive, it said: "If the UK is going into recession, then we don't think this is the start of it."

"We still expect a bounce back in July - the reversal of the bank holiday effect - to set the UK up for a positive Q3, as does the Bank of England," it added.


'It already feels like a recession'


Kingdom Thenga says it already feels like the UK is in recession


Kingdom Thenga, who owns a number of local bars and restaurants in Chester, says for him, it already feels like the UK is in a recession.

"I think we are not too far away from it because of the consistent blows we're getting from energy bills, from people not going out, to the cost of living, it just seems that's where we're heading," he said.

He says his business is currently "in survival mode".

"It's not about making money, it's not about trying to expand or trying to grow our business, it's just about stabilising the business especially after the pandemic over the last two years," he told the BBC.

Mr Thenga says the biggest issue he's facing is rising costs - with everything from poultry to vegetable oil soaring in price - while the amount of money his customers have in their pockets is going down.

"Energy bills are ridiculous, the cost of fuel is ridiculous and I appreciate people don't necessarily have the money or can't spend what they used to, because everyone is so worried about what the bills are going to be," he says.

The UK is facing the worst rate of price rises - or inflation - in 40 years as energy costs continue to soar.

Commenting on the 0.1% contraction between April and June, the ONS said that the biggest contributor was from "human health and social work activities" as Covid test and trace and vaccination programmes were wound down. There was also a fall in retail sales volumes.

However, it said areas such as tourism, bars and entertainment showed strong growth.

"Health was the biggest reason the economy contracted as both the test and trace and vaccine programmes were wound down, while many retailers also had a tough quarter," said Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS.

"These were partially offset by growth in hotels, bars, hairdressers and outdoor events across the quarter, partly as a result of people celebrating the Platinum Jubilee." This included rises in mobile food stands and takeaway food shops.


The ONS said that in June alone the economy shrank by 0.6% in June due to the extra bank holiday to celebrate the Queen's Platinum Jubilee.

However, that figure was much better than the 1.3% fall predicted by economists. The ONS said that while the bank holiday impacted on monthly GDP, it had "little impact" on the quarterly figure.

The Chancellor, Nadhim Zahawi, told the BBC that these are "challenging times".

"What the numbers show today is that the contraction is partly because of some of the Covid activities reducing but also real resilience in the private sector which actually in many ways bodes well... But nevertheless these are challenging times," he said.

But Labour accused the Conservatives of "losing control of the economy".

Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: "With the Bank of England forecasting a recession lasting the whole of next year, the Conservative leadership contenders need to stop playing to the gallery and start coming up with a serious plan to get Britain's economy back on track."


A big part of the drop in Gross Domestic Product in June was because of the Platinum Jubilee - which meant two fewer working days of producing goods and services, in contrast to May, which had one additional working day.

It was always expected that that would magnify the downswing from May to June and economists expected a sharper drop in activity.

The 0.1% drop over the three months from April to June was only half as bad as some economists thought.

Nevertheless, given the backdrop of the global squeeze on incomes due to soaring energy prices, no-one can say this drop in activity is just a blip.

The squeeze on the hard-pressed consumer is tightening its grip, with activity in consumer-facing services down by 4.9% compared to before the pandemic.

And with France, Italy and Canada seeing growth, no-one can say this is a stellar economic performance.

All in all, it's not yet the recession the Bank of England has forecast: more a precursor.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Government Rejects Cover-Up Claims After Theft of Former PM Aide’s Phone
Cyprus Opens Strategic Talks with UK Over Sovereign Base Areas
UK Faces Risk of Sharp Inflation Surge Despite Stable Pre-Crisis Figures
UK Police Arrest Two Over Suspected Antisemitic Arson as Iran Link Investigated
UK Inflation Holds at Three Percent Ahead of Oil Price Shock from Iran Conflict
UK Fuel Prices Face Upward Pressure as Global Oil Trends Raise Cost Outlook
Girlguiding UK Sets September Deadline for Membership Policy Change Affecting Trans Participants
Germany and UK Accelerate Wind Power Expansion to Strengthen Energy Security
UK Moves to Ban Cryptocurrency Donations to Political Parties Over Foreign Influence Concerns
UK and Turkey Finalise Major Air Defence Agreement Worth Billions
Apple Introduces Mandatory Age Verification for iPhone Users in the UK
Diverging Views Emerge Over Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Appearance
Trump Signals Frustration with UK Leadership Amid Diverging Approaches to Iran Conflict
UK Government Takes Control of Hunterston B as Landmark Nuclear Decommissioning Begins
UK Public Inflation Expectations Jump Sharply in March, Raising Pressure on Bank of England
UK Ministers Warn Expanded North Sea Drilling Would Deepen Exposure to Global Energy Volatility
Delayed UK Defence Investment Plan Leaves Suppliers Under Severe Financial Strain
Can Iran Strike the UK? Assessing the Real Military Threat as Conflict Escalates
Sanctioned Iranian Banker Linked to Luxury Marbella Villa Through UK Corporate Structure
Casey Bloys Navigates HBO Max UK Launch, Paramount Integration and Industry Buzz Over Netflix Meeting
Iran Conflict Sparks Sharp Turbulence in UK Mortgage Market, Reaching Pandemic-Era Disruption Levels
Major Donor Urges University of Kentucky to Reconsider Mitch Barnhart’s Post-Retirement Role
United Kingdom Moves to Lead International Effort to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
UK Police Investigate Targeted Attack on Jewish Ambulance Vehicles
UK Police Investigate Targeted Attack on Jewish Ambulance Vehicles
Senior UK Advocate Criticises Barnhart Retirement Appointment, Calls for Reconsideration
UK Finds No Evidence of Direct Iranian Threat to Britain, Says Prime Minister Starmer
Assessing Iran’s Strike Capability and the UK’s Readiness Amid Rising Tensions
NATO Unable to Confirm Iran’s Role in Strike on UK-US Base as Tehran Denies Involvement
University of Kentucky’s Youling Xiong Receives SEC Faculty Achievement Award for 2026
Trump Highlights Satirical Portrayal of UK Leadership Amid Talks with Prime Minister Starmer on Iran Conflict
Trump Highlights Satirical Portrayal of UK Leadership Amid Talks with Prime Minister Starmer on Iran Conflict
UK Fuel Prices Surge Toward Crisis Levels as Experts Warn of Further Sharp Increases
UK Fuel Prices Surge Toward Crisis Levels as Experts Warn of Further Sharp Increases
Duchess of Sussex Secures ‘As Ever’ Trademark Rights in Australia Ahead of High-Profile Visit
UK Reaffirms Security as Officials Reject Claims of Immediate Iranian Missile Threat
Rising Middle East Tensions Spark ‘Trumpflation’ Debate Over Impact on UK Households
UK Minister Says No Evidence Iran Can Strike Europe Despite Heightened Warnings
British-Iranians Voice Safety Concerns to Authorities as Regional Conflict Intensifies
Confirmed Meningitis Cases Linked to Kent Outbreak Revised Down to Twenty
UK Government Sees No Evidence Iran Can Strike London Amid Rising Regional Tensions
Debate Grows Over Recognition of Indigenous Cultural Icons in the United Kingdom
Iran Missile Launch Toward Diego Garcia Raises Questions After Failed Strike on US–UK Base
Donald Trump Amplifies Viral Satirical Clip Highlighting UK–US Political Dynamics
UK Satirical Show Draws Attention with Sketch Referencing Trump and Prince Andrew
Meghan Markle’s Possible UK Return Sparks Renewed Attention on Sussex Role
Starmer Convenes Urgent Talks on Cost-of-Living Pressures Linked to Iran Conflict
Starmer Convenes Urgent Talks on Cost-of-Living Pressures Linked to Iran Conflict
UK Investors Eye Bargain Shares Ahead of ISA Deadline Amid Market Volatility
UK Investors Eye Bargain Shares Ahead of ISA Deadline Amid Market Volatility
×