London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Aug 19, 2025

UK economy shrinks as outlook on recession darkens

UK economy shrinks as outlook on recession darkens

The UK economy shrank between April and June as experts forecast a gloomy outlook with recession on the horizon.

The economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

This was partly due to Covid schemes like Test and Trace ending, retail sales falling and the Queen's Platinum Jubilee bank holiday in June, it said.

The Bank of England has forecast the UK will fall into recession towards the end of the year as energy costs soar.

Despite shrinking between April and June, the UK economy avoided recession because gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in the first three months of this year.

A recession is defined as the economy getting smaller for two consecutive three-month periods.

Up until now most economists - and the Bank of England - did not expect a recession to begin until the final three months of 2022.

Many expected a small rebound in economic growth between July and September. But the latest figures from the ONS have prompted some experts to warn that recession could come sooner than they had initially thought.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said it expected the UK economy to continue falling over the next three quarters.

Capital Economics said there was now a greater risk that the economy will shrink by 0.2% between July and September before worsening.

But investment bank Goldman Sachs still predicted growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2022. A spokesperson said: "We had previously assumed a sharp bounce back in July but now expect a more muted rebound."

HSBC's forecast was more positive, it said: "If the UK is going into recession, then we don't think this is the start of it."

"We still expect a bounce back in July - the reversal of the bank holiday effect - to set the UK up for a positive Q3, as does the Bank of England," it added.


'It already feels like a recession'


Kingdom Thenga says it already feels like the UK is in recession


Kingdom Thenga, who owns a number of local bars and restaurants in Chester, says for him, it already feels like the UK is in a recession.

"I think we are not too far away from it because of the consistent blows we're getting from energy bills, from people not going out, to the cost of living, it just seems that's where we're heading," he said.

He says his business is currently "in survival mode".

"It's not about making money, it's not about trying to expand or trying to grow our business, it's just about stabilising the business especially after the pandemic over the last two years," he told the BBC.

Mr Thenga says the biggest issue he's facing is rising costs - with everything from poultry to vegetable oil soaring in price - while the amount of money his customers have in their pockets is going down.

"Energy bills are ridiculous, the cost of fuel is ridiculous and I appreciate people don't necessarily have the money or can't spend what they used to, because everyone is so worried about what the bills are going to be," he says.

The UK is facing the worst rate of price rises - or inflation - in 40 years as energy costs continue to soar.

Commenting on the 0.1% contraction between April and June, the ONS said that the biggest contributor was from "human health and social work activities" as Covid test and trace and vaccination programmes were wound down. There was also a fall in retail sales volumes.

However, it said areas such as tourism, bars and entertainment showed strong growth.

"Health was the biggest reason the economy contracted as both the test and trace and vaccine programmes were wound down, while many retailers also had a tough quarter," said Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS.

"These were partially offset by growth in hotels, bars, hairdressers and outdoor events across the quarter, partly as a result of people celebrating the Platinum Jubilee." This included rises in mobile food stands and takeaway food shops.


The ONS said that in June alone the economy shrank by 0.6% in June due to the extra bank holiday to celebrate the Queen's Platinum Jubilee.

However, that figure was much better than the 1.3% fall predicted by economists. The ONS said that while the bank holiday impacted on monthly GDP, it had "little impact" on the quarterly figure.

The Chancellor, Nadhim Zahawi, told the BBC that these are "challenging times".

"What the numbers show today is that the contraction is partly because of some of the Covid activities reducing but also real resilience in the private sector which actually in many ways bodes well... But nevertheless these are challenging times," he said.

But Labour accused the Conservatives of "losing control of the economy".

Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: "With the Bank of England forecasting a recession lasting the whole of next year, the Conservative leadership contenders need to stop playing to the gallery and start coming up with a serious plan to get Britain's economy back on track."


A big part of the drop in Gross Domestic Product in June was because of the Platinum Jubilee - which meant two fewer working days of producing goods and services, in contrast to May, which had one additional working day.

It was always expected that that would magnify the downswing from May to June and economists expected a sharper drop in activity.

The 0.1% drop over the three months from April to June was only half as bad as some economists thought.

Nevertheless, given the backdrop of the global squeeze on incomes due to soaring energy prices, no-one can say this drop in activity is just a blip.

The squeeze on the hard-pressed consumer is tightening its grip, with activity in consumer-facing services down by 4.9% compared to before the pandemic.

And with France, Italy and Canada seeing growth, no-one can say this is a stellar economic performance.

All in all, it's not yet the recession the Bank of England has forecast: more a precursor.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Taylor Swift on the Way to the Super Bowl? All the Clues Stirring Up Fans
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Apple Expands Social Media Presence in China With RedNote Account Ahead of iPhone 17 Launch
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Cambridge Dictionary Adds 'Skibidi,' 'Delulu,' and 'Tradwife' Amid Surge of Online Slang
Bill Barr Testifies No Evidence Implicated Trump in Epstein Case; DOJ Set to Release Records
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
The CEO Who Replaced 80% of Employees for the AI Revolution: "I Would Do It Again"
Emails Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Character.ai Bets on Future of AI Companionship
China Ramps Up Tax Crackdown on Overseas Investments
Japanese Office Furniture Maker Expands into Bomb Shelter Market
Intel Shares Surge on Possible U.S. Government Investment
Hurricane Erin Threatens U.S. East Coast with Dangerous Surf
EU Blocks Trade Statement Over Digital Rule Dispute
EU Sends Record Aid as Spain Battles Wildfires
JPMorgan Plans New Canary Wharf Tower
Zelenskyy and his allies say they will press Trump on security guarantees
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Escalating Clashes in Serbia as Anti-Government Protests Spread Nationwide
The Drought in Britain and the Strange Request from the Government to Delete Old Emails
Category 5 Hurricane in the Caribbean: 'Catastrophic Storm' with Winds of 255 km/h
"No, Thanks": The Mathematical Genius Who Turned Down 1.5 Billion Dollars from Zuckerberg
The surprising hero, the ugly incident, and the criticism despite victory: "Liverpool’s defense exposed in full"
Digital Humans Move Beyond Sci-Fi: From Virtual DJs to AI Customer Agents
YouTube will start using AI to guess your age. If it’s wrong, you’ll have to prove it
Jellyfish Swarm Triggers Shutdown at Gravelines Nuclear Power Station in Northern France
OpenAI’s ‘PhD-Level’ ChatGPT 5 Stumbles, Struggles to Even Label a Map
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
High-Stakes Trump-Putin Summit on Ukraine Underway in Alaska
The World Economic Forum has cleared Klaus Schwab of “material wrongdoing” after a law firm conducted a review into potential misconduct of the institution’s founder
The Mystery Captivating the Internet: Where Has the Social Media Star Gone?
Man Who Threw Sandwich at Federal Agents in Washington Charged with Assault – Identified as Justice Department Employee
A Computer That Listens, Sees, and Acts: What to Expect from Windows 12
Iranian Protection Offers Chinese Vehicle Shipments a Cost Advantage over Japanese and Korean Makers
UK has added India to a list of countries whose nationals, convicted of crimes, will face immediate deportation without the option to appeal from within the UK
Southwest Airlines Apologizes After 'Accidentally Forgetting' Two Blind Passengers at New Orleans Airport and Faces Criticism Over Poor Service for Passengers with Disabilities
Russian Forces Advance on Donetsk Front, Cutting Key Supply Routes Near Pokrovsk
It’s Not the Algorithm: New Study Claims Social Networks Are Fundamentally Broken
Sixty-Year-Old Claims: “My Biological Age Is Twenty-One.” Want the Same? Remember the Name Spermidine
Saudi Arabia accelerates renewables to curb domestic oil use
U.S. Investigation Reports No Russian Interference in Romanian Election First Round
Oasis Reunion Tour Linked to Temporary Rise in UK Inflation
Musk Alleges Apple Favors OpenAI in App Store Rankings
Denmark Revives EU ‘Chat Control’ Proposal for Encrypted Message Scanning
US Teen Pilot Reaches Deal to Leave Chile After Unauthorized Antarctic Landing
Trump considers lawsuit against Powell over Fed renovation costs
Trump Criticizes Goldman Sachs Over Tariff Cost Forecasts
Perplexity makes unsolicited $34.5 billion all-cash offer for Google’s Chrome browser
×