London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Nov 16, 2025

UK business survey points to Q1 growth and growing confidence

UK business survey points to Q1 growth and growing confidence

British businesses reported a second month of growth in March, suggesting the overall economy expanded in early 2023, and they also turned more upbeat about their prospects in the year ahead, an industry survey showed on Friday.

The 'flash' or preliminary reading of the S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) - spanning services and manufacturing firms - came in at 52.2 in March, down from 53.1 in February but above the 50 threshold for growth.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 52.8.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview broadcast on Friday that he expected Britain would now avoid recession this year, although growth prospects remained subdued.

Retail sales data also released on Friday showed stronger-than-expected growth for February and January - though Britain's Office for National Statistics said this could reflect cash-strapped households cutting back on takeaways and restaurant meals in favour of eating at home.

Many businesses and households are still feeling squeezed.

While the services PMI was in positive territory at 52.8, the manufacturing survey slipped to 48.0, representing its eighth month of contraction.

Firms across the two sectors were more optimistic about their prospects over the next 12 months, with the degree of confidence hitting its highest since March 2022.

S&P Global said this improved confidence largely reflected an easing of post-COVID supply chain difficulties in the manufacturing sector and stronger customer demand.

"With the flash PMI surveys signalling a second month of rising output in March, the UK economy looks to have returned to growth in the first quarter," S&P Global's chief business economist, Chris Williamson, said.

There was an even bigger upturn in the euro zone, where the composite PMI rose to a 10-month high of 54.1 from 52.0.

"An upturn in companies' expectations for the year ahead indicates that business sentiment has been little affected so far by the banking sector woes and that firms are more focused on growth possibilities," Williamson said, of the situation in Britain.

While the rate of growth in the services industry slowed this month compared to February, new business activity rose at the sharpest pace in 12 months. Manufacturing output fell marginally as subdued demand depressed volumes.


TENTATIVE IMPROVEMENT


Friday's survey added to a series of improved measures of the UK economy which had appeared to be heading for a recession in early 2023, although on Thursday the BoE said it still expected it to shrink in the January-March period before picking up in the second quarter.

Official data published earlier in March showed the economy unexpectedly returned to growth in January.

A GfK survey of British consumer sentiment on Friday was the strongest in a year, though still weak by historic standards.

Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said widespread public-sector strikes in the first quarter of 2023, as well as the impact of higher interest rates on construction, could still lead to a fall in gross domestic product in the first quarter.

"The risk of a tightening of credit conditions also looms over the near-term outlook," she said.

Although the collapse this month of the United States' Silicon Valley Bank and UBS's takeover of flailing Credit Suisse has had little direct impact on most British businesses, the BoE said these problems had pushed up British lenders' financing costs.

S&P Global's input price index - a good guide of future inflation pressures - showed growth in costs for firms falling to the lowest since April 2021, although overall cost pressures remained high by historical standards.

Service firms flagged a steeper rise in input prices than manufacturing companies, with the latter recording the slowest increase since June 2020.

Companies said lower fuel bills and transport costs, partly offset wage pressures and higher food prices.

The BoE on Thursday increased interest rates to 4.25% from 4% after a surprise surge in consumer price inflation which hit 10.4% in February. But some economists said the hike might be the last in a run of rate hikes going back to December 2021.

Financial markets expect one more BoE rate increase, to 4.5%, in the coming months.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Nearly Half of Job Losses Under Labour Government Affect UK Youth
UK Chancellor Reeves Eyes High-Value Home Levy in Budget to Raise Tens of Billions
UK Urges Poland to Choose Swedish Submarines in Multi-Billion € Defence Bid
US Border Czar Tom Homan Declares UK No Longer a ‘Friend’ Amid Intelligence Rift
UK Announces Reversal of Income Tax Hike Plans Ahead of Budget
Starmer Faces Mounting Turmoil as Leaked Briefings Ignite Leadership Plot Rumours
UK Commentator Sami Hamdi Returns Home After US Visa Revocation and Detention
UK Eyes Denmark-Style Asylum Rules in Major Migration Shift
UK Signals Intelligence Freeze Amid US Maritime Drug-Strike Campaign
TikTok Awards UK & Ireland 2025 Celebrates Top Creators Including Max Klymenko as Creator of the Year
UK Growth Nearly Stalls at 0.1% in Q3 as Cyberattack Halts Car Production
Apple Denied Permission to Appeal UK App Store Ruling, Faces Over £1bn Liability
UK Chooses Wylfa for First Small Modular Reactors, Drawing Sharp U.S. Objection
Starmer Faces Growing Labour Backlash as Briefing Sparks Authority Crisis
Reform UK Withdraws from BBC Documentary Amid Legal Storm Over Trump Speech Edit
UK Prime Minister Attempts to Reassert Authority Amid Internal Labour Leadership Drama
UK Upholds Firm Rules on Stablecoins to Shield Financial System
Brussels Divided as UK-EU Reset Stalls Over Budget Access
Prince Harry’s Remembrance Day Essay Expresses Strong Regret at Leaving Britain
UK Unemployment Hits 5% as Wage Growth Slows, Paving Way for Bank of England Rate Cut
Starmer Warns of Resurgent Racism in UK Politics as He Vows Child-Poverty Reforms
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 4.7% as Supermarkets Launch Pre-Christmas Promotions
UK Government Backs the BBC amid Editing Scandal and Trump Threat of Legal Action
UK Assessment Mis-Estimated Fallout From Palestine Action Ban, Records Reveal
UK Halts Intelligence Sharing with US Amid Lethal Boat-Strike Concerns
King Charles III Leads Britain in Remembrance Sunday Tribute to War Dead
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
Shell Pulls Out of Two UK Floating Wind Projects Amid Renewables Retreat
Viagogo Hit With £15 Million Tax Bill After HMRC Transfer-Pricing Inquiry
Jaguar Land Rover Cyberattack Pinches UK GDP, Bank of England Says
UK and Germany Sound Alarm on Russian-Satellite Threat to Critical Infrastructure
Former Prince Andrew Faces U.S. Congressional Request for Testimony Amid Brexit of Royal Title
BBC Director-General Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness Resign Amid Editing Controversy
Tom Cruise Arrives by Helicopter at UK Scientology Fundraiser Amid Local Protests
Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson Face Fresh UK Probes Amid Royal Fallout
Mothers Link Teen Suicides to AI Chatbots in Growing Legal Battle
UK Government to Mirror Denmark’s Tough Immigration Framework in Major Policy Shift
UK Government Turns to Denmark-Style Immigration Reforms to Overhaul Border Rules
UK Chancellor Warned Against Cutting Insulation Funding as Budget Looms
UK Tenant Complaints Hit Record Levels as Rental Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
Apple to Pay Google About One Billion Dollars Annually for Gemini AI to Power Next-Generation Siri
UK Signals Major Shift as Nuclear Arms Race Looms
BBC’s « Celebrity Traitors UK » Finale Breaks Records with 11.1 Million Viewers
UK Spy Case Collapse Highlights Implications for UK-Taiwan Strategic Alignment
On the Road to the Oscars? Meghan Markle to Star in a New Film
A Vote Worth a Trillion Dollars: Elon Musk’s Defining Day
AI Researchers Claim Human-Level General Intelligence Is Already Here
President Donald Trump Challenges Nigeria with Military Options Over Alleged Christian Killings
Nancy Pelosi Finally Announces She Will Not Seek Re-Election, Signalling End of Long Congressional Career
UK Pre-Budget Blues and Rate-Cut Concerns Pile Pressure on Pound
×