London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Sep 11, 2026

UK business survey points to Q1 growth and growing confidence

UK business survey points to Q1 growth and growing confidence

British businesses reported a second month of growth in March, suggesting the overall economy expanded in early 2023, and they also turned more upbeat about their prospects in the year ahead, an industry survey showed on Friday.

The 'flash' or preliminary reading of the S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) - spanning services and manufacturing firms - came in at 52.2 in March, down from 53.1 in February but above the 50 threshold for growth.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 52.8.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview broadcast on Friday that he expected Britain would now avoid recession this year, although growth prospects remained subdued.

Retail sales data also released on Friday showed stronger-than-expected growth for February and January - though Britain's Office for National Statistics said this could reflect cash-strapped households cutting back on takeaways and restaurant meals in favour of eating at home.

Many businesses and households are still feeling squeezed.

While the services PMI was in positive territory at 52.8, the manufacturing survey slipped to 48.0, representing its eighth month of contraction.

Firms across the two sectors were more optimistic about their prospects over the next 12 months, with the degree of confidence hitting its highest since March 2022.

S&P Global said this improved confidence largely reflected an easing of post-COVID supply chain difficulties in the manufacturing sector and stronger customer demand.

"With the flash PMI surveys signalling a second month of rising output in March, the UK economy looks to have returned to growth in the first quarter," S&P Global's chief business economist, Chris Williamson, said.

There was an even bigger upturn in the euro zone, where the composite PMI rose to a 10-month high of 54.1 from 52.0.

"An upturn in companies' expectations for the year ahead indicates that business sentiment has been little affected so far by the banking sector woes and that firms are more focused on growth possibilities," Williamson said, of the situation in Britain.

While the rate of growth in the services industry slowed this month compared to February, new business activity rose at the sharpest pace in 12 months. Manufacturing output fell marginally as subdued demand depressed volumes.


TENTATIVE IMPROVEMENT


Friday's survey added to a series of improved measures of the UK economy which had appeared to be heading for a recession in early 2023, although on Thursday the BoE said it still expected it to shrink in the January-March period before picking up in the second quarter.

Official data published earlier in March showed the economy unexpectedly returned to growth in January.

A GfK survey of British consumer sentiment on Friday was the strongest in a year, though still weak by historic standards.

Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said widespread public-sector strikes in the first quarter of 2023, as well as the impact of higher interest rates on construction, could still lead to a fall in gross domestic product in the first quarter.

"The risk of a tightening of credit conditions also looms over the near-term outlook," she said.

Although the collapse this month of the United States' Silicon Valley Bank and UBS's takeover of flailing Credit Suisse has had little direct impact on most British businesses, the BoE said these problems had pushed up British lenders' financing costs.

S&P Global's input price index - a good guide of future inflation pressures - showed growth in costs for firms falling to the lowest since April 2021, although overall cost pressures remained high by historical standards.

Service firms flagged a steeper rise in input prices than manufacturing companies, with the latter recording the slowest increase since June 2020.

Companies said lower fuel bills and transport costs, partly offset wage pressures and higher food prices.

The BoE on Thursday increased interest rates to 4.25% from 4% after a surprise surge in consumer price inflation which hit 10.4% in February. But some economists said the hike might be the last in a run of rate hikes going back to December 2021.

Financial markets expect one more BoE rate increase, to 4.5%, in the coming months.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
English Councils to Gain Power to Introduce Tourist Taxes by 2028
Kemi Badenoch Reshuffles Conservative Shadow Cabinet
Firefighters Make Progress Containing Major Wildfires in South Wales
John Lewis Partnership Reports £124 Million Loss
Study Says UK AI Data Centres Will Create Only a Quarter of Forecast Jobs
UK Government Considers Higher Industrial Water Prices Amid Supply Pressures
Andy Burnham Holds First Call With Donald Trump as UK Prime Minister
NHS Records Busiest Summer on Record as Heatwaves Drive Hospital Admissions
Home Secretary Orders Police Crackdown on Far-Right Anti-Migrant Vigilantes
UK Supreme Court Rules Northern Ireland Religious Education Curriculum Breaches Human Rights Standards
Markets Price in Four Bank of England Rate Rises by Next Summer
House of Commons Prepares Free Vote on Assisted Dying Bill
UK Government Bans Trade With Israeli Settlements in Occupied Territories
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Artificial Intelligence Investment Supports Expansion
Andy Burnham Becomes UK Prime Minister After Keir Starmer Resigns
John Lewis Partnership Loss Widens to £124 Million
UK Government to Put White Working-Class Social Mobility at Centre of Equality Policy
McLaren Plans £450 Million Technology Investment Creating 1,000 UK Jobs
UK Chancellor Faces Calls for Wealth Taxes and Public Ownership in Autumn Budget
English Mayors to Gain Powers to Impose Uncapped Overnight Tourist Taxes
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns UK Government Against Bank Windfall Taxes
UK Air Traffic Control Outage Cancels More Than 2,000 Flights
UK Imposes Trade Ban on Israeli Settlements in the West Bank
UK Borrowing Costs Surge as Middle East Tensions Push Long-Term Gilt Yields to Highest Since 1998
Buckingham Palace Says Prince Harry and Meghan Will Not Resume Official Royal Duties
UK Treasury Faces Calls to Scrap £100,000 Childcare Support Threshold
Trades Union Congress Urges Labour Government to Rewrite Migration Policy
Riot Police Deployed After Anti-Migrant Protests Turn Violent in Portsmouth
UK Considers Replacing Some Disability Cash Payments With Direct Services
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns UK Chancellor Against Higher Banking Taxes
UK Announces New Sanctions Targeting Israeli Settlements in West Bank
Metropolitan Police Investigate Alleged Illegal Donations to Reform UK
UK Charges Wiltshire Man With Assisting Russian Intelligence
UK Orders Urgent Review After Air Traffic Failure Cancels More Than 2,000 Flights
Merz Rebukes AfD Expansion in Saxony-Anhalt
King Charles Confirms Prince Harry and Meghan Will Remain Private Citizens
Labour Selects Former Child Refugee for By-Election in Keir Starmer’s Former Seat
Foreign Private Equity Accelerates Takeovers of London-Listed Industrial Companies
NHS Maternity Care Faces Scrutiny Over Support for Mothers After Caesarean Births
BBC Warns Staff Strikes Are Likely Amid Job Cuts and Programme Cancellations
English Housing Affordability Improves to Best Level in More Than a Decade
UK Health Commission Proposes Framework for Wider AI Adoption Across NHS
Labour Faces Pressure for Wealth Tax Ahead of Autumn Budget
Metropolitan Police Open Criminal Investigation Into Alleged Foreign Donations to Reform UK
UK Police Deploy Riot Officers After Anti-Immigration Unrest in Portsmouth and Dover
UK Defends Sanctions on Israeli Settlements Despite Diplomatic Retaliation
UK Air Traffic Control Failure Cancels More Than 1,000 Flights and Disrupts 65,000 Passengers
Compass Urges £10 Million Wealth Tax and Public Ownership Ahead of UK Autumn Budget
UK Government’s Devolution Plans Face House of Lords Scrutiny
Maldives Seeks New Chagos Sovereignty Talks With UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham
×