London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026

UK business survey points to Q1 growth and growing confidence

UK business survey points to Q1 growth and growing confidence

British businesses reported a second month of growth in March, suggesting the overall economy expanded in early 2023, and they also turned more upbeat about their prospects in the year ahead, an industry survey showed on Friday.

The 'flash' or preliminary reading of the S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) - spanning services and manufacturing firms - came in at 52.2 in March, down from 53.1 in February but above the 50 threshold for growth.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 52.8.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview broadcast on Friday that he expected Britain would now avoid recession this year, although growth prospects remained subdued.

Retail sales data also released on Friday showed stronger-than-expected growth for February and January - though Britain's Office for National Statistics said this could reflect cash-strapped households cutting back on takeaways and restaurant meals in favour of eating at home.

Many businesses and households are still feeling squeezed.

While the services PMI was in positive territory at 52.8, the manufacturing survey slipped to 48.0, representing its eighth month of contraction.

Firms across the two sectors were more optimistic about their prospects over the next 12 months, with the degree of confidence hitting its highest since March 2022.

S&P Global said this improved confidence largely reflected an easing of post-COVID supply chain difficulties in the manufacturing sector and stronger customer demand.

"With the flash PMI surveys signalling a second month of rising output in March, the UK economy looks to have returned to growth in the first quarter," S&P Global's chief business economist, Chris Williamson, said.

There was an even bigger upturn in the euro zone, where the composite PMI rose to a 10-month high of 54.1 from 52.0.

"An upturn in companies' expectations for the year ahead indicates that business sentiment has been little affected so far by the banking sector woes and that firms are more focused on growth possibilities," Williamson said, of the situation in Britain.

While the rate of growth in the services industry slowed this month compared to February, new business activity rose at the sharpest pace in 12 months. Manufacturing output fell marginally as subdued demand depressed volumes.


TENTATIVE IMPROVEMENT


Friday's survey added to a series of improved measures of the UK economy which had appeared to be heading for a recession in early 2023, although on Thursday the BoE said it still expected it to shrink in the January-March period before picking up in the second quarter.

Official data published earlier in March showed the economy unexpectedly returned to growth in January.

A GfK survey of British consumer sentiment on Friday was the strongest in a year, though still weak by historic standards.

Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said widespread public-sector strikes in the first quarter of 2023, as well as the impact of higher interest rates on construction, could still lead to a fall in gross domestic product in the first quarter.

"The risk of a tightening of credit conditions also looms over the near-term outlook," she said.

Although the collapse this month of the United States' Silicon Valley Bank and UBS's takeover of flailing Credit Suisse has had little direct impact on most British businesses, the BoE said these problems had pushed up British lenders' financing costs.

S&P Global's input price index - a good guide of future inflation pressures - showed growth in costs for firms falling to the lowest since April 2021, although overall cost pressures remained high by historical standards.

Service firms flagged a steeper rise in input prices than manufacturing companies, with the latter recording the slowest increase since June 2020.

Companies said lower fuel bills and transport costs, partly offset wage pressures and higher food prices.

The BoE on Thursday increased interest rates to 4.25% from 4% after a surprise surge in consumer price inflation which hit 10.4% in February. But some economists said the hike might be the last in a run of rate hikes going back to December 2021.

Financial markets expect one more BoE rate increase, to 4.5%, in the coming months.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Piddington Residents Back Symbolic Independence Vote Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
Reform UK Names Helen Jenner as New Leader in Wales
England Expands Devolution of Transport, Skills and Economic Development Powers
Liberal Democrats Call for Temporary Fuel Duty Cut to Ease Cost-of-Living Pressure
UK Farmers Warn Drought Has Caused Crop Failures and Reduced Harvests
UK Fixed Mortgage Rates Approach 6% as Lenders Raise Borrowing Costs
YouGov Poll Puts Labour at 23% With Conservatives and Reform UK on 21%
Badenoch Presses Burnham to Increase Defence Spending and Cut Welfare Costs
UK Military Figures Warn of Growing Threats to Undersea Infrastructure and National Readiness
BP Moves Ahead With Sale of UK North Sea Oil and Gas Business
UK and ASEAN Endorse New Framework for Trade and Economic Cooperation
UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Three-Year Low as Borrowing Costs and Job Concerns Rise
UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% as Motor Fuel Costs Push Prices Higher
Bank of England Sets Multi-Year Plan to Wind Down Quantitative Easing Holdings
UK Borrowing Rises to £18.3 Billion in August Ahead of October Budget
Michelin Guide Faces Industry Questions Over Restaurant Inspection Coverage
English Woodlands Face Renewed Weather Stress From Dry Conditions and Strong Winds
Research Finds Extensive Alcohol, Gambling and Unhealthy Food Branding During 2026 World Cup
Five Charged After Newborn Baby Dies From Stab Wounds in Sheffield
BT Could Reap £2 Billion From Recycling Copper as Full-Fibre Network Expands
FCA Urges Young Adults to Trace £1.5 Billion in Unclaimed Child Trust Funds
Reform UK Names Helen Jenner as New Leader in Wales After Dan Thomas Steps Down
Resolution Foundation Calls for Broad-Based Tax Rises to Fund Higher UK Defence Spending
Ed Davey Calls for Global Treaty to Halt Development of Super-Intelligent AI
Scotland Consults on Legal Price Caps for Essential Foods
NHS Productivity Reforms Could Prevent More Than 20,000 Early Deaths a Year, Report Says
United Kingdom and ASEAN Deepen Trade and Investment Cooperation
United Kingdom Deploys RAF Refuelling Support to Saudi Arabia After Houthi Attacks
UK Fiscal Headroom Shrinks as Higher Borrowing Costs Complicate Autumn Budget
UK Public Borrowing Jumps to £18.3 Billion in August, Raising Pressure Before Budget
Andy Burnham Reaffirms UK Net-Zero Target With £30 Million Community Energy Fund
Scottish Labour Leader Backs Rosebank and Jackdaw North Sea Projects
UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Three-Year Low
UK Diesel Prices Approach £2 a Litre as Global Supply Shortages Intensify
Chiltern Railways Returns to Public Ownership as UK Rail Nationalisation Advances
British Museum Faces Questions Over Peter Thiel’s Private Bayeux Tapestry Viewing
Earl Spencer Memoir Excerpts Renew Public Debate Over Diana’s Death
Liberal Democrats Gather in Brighton for Autumn Conference
Mothercare Shares Plunge as Middle East Store Closures Threaten Long-Term Solvency
Kent Police Treat Folkestone Hotel Fire as Suspicious
Caribbean Governments Advance Reparations Campaign Seeking Engagement With Britain
Scottish Labour Leader Backs Rosebank and Jackdaw North Sea Projects
FCA Urges Young Adults to Trace £1.5 Billion in Unclaimed Child Trust Funds
UK Competition Regulator Opens Inquiry Into McCormick-Unilever Foods Deal
Public Inquiry Into Tees, Esk and Wear Valleys Mental Health Failings Set to Begin
Nigel Farage Looks to US Immigration Enforcement Model for UK Border Policy
Chiltern Railways Moves Into Public Ownership
Security Review Raises Concerns Over Sensitive UK Police Data Stored on Microsoft Cloud
Burnham Government Warns of Difficult Autumn Budget as Fiscal Headroom Narrows
Bank of England Holds Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Rises to 3.1%
×