London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Jul 04, 2026

UK business survey points to Q1 growth and growing confidence

UK business survey points to Q1 growth and growing confidence

British businesses reported a second month of growth in March, suggesting the overall economy expanded in early 2023, and they also turned more upbeat about their prospects in the year ahead, an industry survey showed on Friday.

The 'flash' or preliminary reading of the S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) - spanning services and manufacturing firms - came in at 52.2 in March, down from 53.1 in February but above the 50 threshold for growth.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 52.8.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview broadcast on Friday that he expected Britain would now avoid recession this year, although growth prospects remained subdued.

Retail sales data also released on Friday showed stronger-than-expected growth for February and January - though Britain's Office for National Statistics said this could reflect cash-strapped households cutting back on takeaways and restaurant meals in favour of eating at home.

Many businesses and households are still feeling squeezed.

While the services PMI was in positive territory at 52.8, the manufacturing survey slipped to 48.0, representing its eighth month of contraction.

Firms across the two sectors were more optimistic about their prospects over the next 12 months, with the degree of confidence hitting its highest since March 2022.

S&P Global said this improved confidence largely reflected an easing of post-COVID supply chain difficulties in the manufacturing sector and stronger customer demand.

"With the flash PMI surveys signalling a second month of rising output in March, the UK economy looks to have returned to growth in the first quarter," S&P Global's chief business economist, Chris Williamson, said.

There was an even bigger upturn in the euro zone, where the composite PMI rose to a 10-month high of 54.1 from 52.0.

"An upturn in companies' expectations for the year ahead indicates that business sentiment has been little affected so far by the banking sector woes and that firms are more focused on growth possibilities," Williamson said, of the situation in Britain.

While the rate of growth in the services industry slowed this month compared to February, new business activity rose at the sharpest pace in 12 months. Manufacturing output fell marginally as subdued demand depressed volumes.


TENTATIVE IMPROVEMENT


Friday's survey added to a series of improved measures of the UK economy which had appeared to be heading for a recession in early 2023, although on Thursday the BoE said it still expected it to shrink in the January-March period before picking up in the second quarter.

Official data published earlier in March showed the economy unexpectedly returned to growth in January.

A GfK survey of British consumer sentiment on Friday was the strongest in a year, though still weak by historic standards.

Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said widespread public-sector strikes in the first quarter of 2023, as well as the impact of higher interest rates on construction, could still lead to a fall in gross domestic product in the first quarter.

"The risk of a tightening of credit conditions also looms over the near-term outlook," she said.

Although the collapse this month of the United States' Silicon Valley Bank and UBS's takeover of flailing Credit Suisse has had little direct impact on most British businesses, the BoE said these problems had pushed up British lenders' financing costs.

S&P Global's input price index - a good guide of future inflation pressures - showed growth in costs for firms falling to the lowest since April 2021, although overall cost pressures remained high by historical standards.

Service firms flagged a steeper rise in input prices than manufacturing companies, with the latter recording the slowest increase since June 2020.

Companies said lower fuel bills and transport costs, partly offset wage pressures and higher food prices.

The BoE on Thursday increased interest rates to 4.25% from 4% after a surprise surge in consumer price inflation which hit 10.4% in February. But some economists said the hike might be the last in a run of rate hikes going back to December 2021.

Financial markets expect one more BoE rate increase, to 4.5%, in the coming months.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Royal Society Exhibition Highlights Growing Focus on Public Trust in Science
Energy Costs and Supply Chain Risks Continue to Shape UK Business Strategy
Rapid Rise in Artificial Intelligence Adoption Reshapes UK Corporate Operations, ONS Says
UK Businesses Turn Defensive as Economic Outlook Weakens, Institute of Directors Data Shows
UK Government Faces Criticism Over Late Extension of Pub Hours for England Match
Inquest Continues Into Death of Noah Donohoe as Jury Deliberates Findings
Calls for Stronger Wildlife Attraction Safety Rules After Crocodile Enclosure Injury
City Fire Under Control After Major Blaze Sends Smoke Across Urban Area
Police Investigation Continues After Officer Killed During Road Closure Duties
Blackpool Hotel Fined £120,000 After Electric Shock Incident Involving Child
Whistleblowers Allege Delays in UK Special Educational Needs Support Services
Calls Grow for Improved Support for UK Armed Forces Personnel Facing Health Conditions
Rising UK Energy Price Cap Increase Prompts Wider Concerns Over Household Pressures
UK Businesses Remain Concerned Over Global Conflict Risks to Supply Chains, ONS Finds
Office for National Statistics Reports Rising Adoption of Artificial Intelligence Across UK Businesses
Institute of Directors Reports Deepening Pessimism in UK Business Confidence Index
England Prepare for World Cup Round of 16 Match Against Mexico in Mexico City
Royal Society Summer Science Exhibition Concludes in London After Week-Long Showcase of Research
Silverstone Hosts British Grand Prix as Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton Lead Home Crowd Expectations
Cornwall Van Dwellers Face Homelessness Risk as Council Tightens Enforcement
Police Investigate Stabbing of Iranian Journalist in London
Rare Copy of US Declaration of Independence Discovered in UK Archive
Department for Education Data Shows Persistent Literacy Gap Among Disadvantaged White Pupils
London Casino Faces Legal Action Over Alleged Tip Distribution Practices
England Records Hottest June on Record as Heatwave Disrupts Services Nationwide
UK Foreign Office Ends Overseas Education Programme for Women and Girls After Shortfall
UK Lawmakers Call for Urgent Action to Preserve Historic Outdoor Lidos
Police Criticise Extended Pub Opening Hours for England World Cup Fixture in Mexico
UK Safety Authorities Warn Parents Over AI-Generated Child Abuse Imagery Risks
Reform UK-Led Council Struggles to Attract Sponsors for Union Flag Promotion Scheme
OpenAI UK Investment Uncertainty Grows After Reported Setback on Stargate Data Centre Site
British Medical Association Warns of Severe Financial Crisis and Possible Staff Cuts
UK Devolution Debate Intensifies as Celtic Nations Prepare Breakup Contingency Plans
Starmer Signals Labour Transition as Burnham Emerges as Potential Successor
UK Government Consults International Partners on Maritime Trade Security and Energy Market Stability
Rare Revolutionary-Era Documents Discovered by UK Archives and Undergoing Authentication
UK Consumer Confidence Remains Deep in Negative Territory as Household Spending Stays Cautious
Transport for London Warns of Severe Disruption as Major Events Converge in Central London
NHS and Social Care Sectors Face Ongoing Recruitment Shortages Amid Persistent Workforce Gaps
Rising Energy Costs Drive Price Pressures Across UK Retail and Service Sectors
Competition and Markets Authority Expands Review of Artificial Intelligence Impact on UK Media Markets
UK Parliamentary Committees Intensify Scrutiny of National Security and Industrial Policy Legislation
Bank of England Faces Persistent Inflation Pressure as Rate Cut Expectations Fade
UK Public Finances Under Pressure as Borrowing Exceeds Forecast and Debt Nears 95% of GDP
Major Police Deployment Across Central London as Mass Demonstrations and Pride Parade Converge
Large-Scale Police Dispersal Powers Activated in Liverpool Ahead of Anti-Immigration Protests and Counter-Demonstrations
Luxury bags take over the World Cup: style, status symbol, or just showing off?
National Productivity Institute Highlights Weak Business Investment Outside Southern England
UK High Court Orders Reassessment of Environmental Impact in Major Highway Project
UK Cyber Security Centre Warns of Rising Threat From State-Sponsored Digital Espionage
×