London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jul 06, 2026

U.S. consumer prices post biggest rise in nearly 40 years; inflation close to peaking

U.S. consumer prices post biggest rise in nearly 40 years; inflation close to peaking

U.S. consumer prices increased solidly in December as rental accommodation and used cars maintained their strong gains, culminating in the largest annual rise in inflation in nearly four decades, which bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates as early as March.

The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday followed on the heels of data last Friday showing that the labor market was at or near maximum employment.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday said the U.S. central bank stood ready to do what was necessary to keep high inflation from becoming "entrenched," in testimony during his nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee for a second four-year term as head of the bank.

The high cost of living, the result of snarled supply chains because of the COVID-19 pandemic, is a political nightmare for President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has taken a hit.

"The Fed is going to be forced to begin raising rates in March and depending on the political pressure on them – from both sides of the aisle – they are going to have to raise rates four or more times in this year and potentially more than that next year," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The consumer price index rose 0.5% last month after advancing 0.8% in November. In addition to higher rents, consumers also paid more for food, though the 0.5% increase in food prices was less than in the prior three months. There were big gains in the prices of fruits and vegetables, but beef prices fell 2.0% after recent sharp gains.

Consumers also got a respite from gasoline prices, which fell 0.5% after rising 6.1% in both November and October.

In the 12 months through December, the CPI surged 7.0%. That was the biggest year-on-year increase since June 1982 and followed a 6.8% rise in November.

Last month's inflation readings were in line with expectations. Rising inflation is also eroding wage gains. Inflation-adjusted average weekly earnings fell 2.3% on a year-on-year basis in December.

President Biden said virtually every nation was afflicted with inflation as the global economy recovers from the pandemic.

"This report underscores that we still have more work to do, with price increases still too high and squeezing family budgets," Biden said in a statement.

Inflation is well above the Fed's flexible 2% target. It is also being lifted by budding wage pressures as the labor market tightens. The unemployment rate fell to a 22-month low of 3.9% in December. Markets have priced in an about 80% chance of a rate hike in March, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Economists say the broad nature of inflation appears to have caught Fed officials off guard. There are concerns that inflation expectations could become entrenched and compel the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy, potentially causing a recession.

"This is the first time the Fed has chased instead of trying to preempt a nonexistent inflation since the 1980s," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton in Chicago. "Brace yourselves."

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher amid relief that the increase in prices was as expected. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.


BOTTLENECKS EASING


Economists believe the year-on-year CPI rate probably peaked in December or will likely do so by March. There are signs that supply bottlenecks are starting to ease, with an Institute for Supply Management survey last week showing manufacturers reporting improved supplier deliveries in December.

But soaring COVID-19 cases, driven by the Omicron variant, could slow progress towards normalization of supply chains.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.6% last month after rising 0.5% in November.

The so-called core CPI was boosted by rents, with owners' equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would receive from renting a home, rising a solid 0.4% for a third straight month.

Prices for used cars and trucks accelerated 3.5% after increasing 2.5% in each of the prior two months. The surge likely reflects Hurricane Ida in late August and early September, which destroyed thousands of motor vehicles among other property.

New motor vehicle prices rose 1.0%, marking the ninth consecutive month of gains. A global semiconductor shortage has undercut motor vehicle production.

Prices for furniture, bedding and housekeeping supplies increased. Apparel prices jumped 1.7%, the largest increase since January 2021. The cost of healthcare rose 0.3%.

There were also increases in the prices for airline tickets, personal care products and tobacco. But the cost of motor vehicle insurance fell again as did recreation. Communication prices were unchanged.

In the 12 months through December, the so-called core CPI accelerated 5.5%. That was the largest year-on-year gain since February 1991 and followed a 4.9% advance in November. The year-on-year core CPI rate is seen peaking in February.

Still, inflation is likely to remain above target this year.

"Inflation will slow in 2022 as supply chains reopen and prices for some items, like vehicles and energy, decline as supply catches up to demand," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

"But inflation for many other goods and services will be higher in 2022 than before the pandemic, due to higher labor costs and input prices. Housing will also contribute to high inflation in 2022."

Comments

Oh ya 4 year ago
Well thank you slow joe and the ho

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Office for National Statistics Updates Historical Investment Data Review to Improve Accuracy
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Highlights Economic Gains From Digital Inclusion
Debate Intensifies Over UK Defence Strategy and Domestic Security Priorities
Report Warns Full Transport Accessibility Could Add £176 Billion to UK Economy Annually
Medicines Regulator Approves First Targeted Treatment for Advanced Merkel Cell Skin Cancer
Government Commits £22 Million to Brighton Seafront Infrastructure Renewal and Transport Safety
National Security Bill Returns to House of Commons Amid Calls to Protect Humanitarian Work
Government Tightens Overseas Political Donation Rules to Strengthen Safeguards Against Foreign Influence
NHS Maternity Reform Expands Central Oversight After Critical National Review
Dover Border Warnings Highlight Post-Brexit Pressure on Cross-Channel Trade
Private Nuclear Consortium Advances £35 Billion Small Reactor Strategy in UK
UK Labour Leadership Signals Shift Toward Reindustrialisation and Regional Power
House of Lords Debates Rail Nationalisation Bill to Create Great British Railways
Scottish Affairs Committee Expands Inquiry Into SNP Financial Conduct
Evri Launches £1.2 Million Defamation Case Against BBC Over Panorama Investigation
Port of Dover Warns of Border Delays as EU Entry-Exit System Looms
Nigel Farage Referred to Standards Watchdog Over Alleged Undeclared Benefits
UK Government Faces Scrutiny Over Claimed AI Datacentre Investment After FOI Findings
UK and India Finalise Trade Agreement Rules Ahead of Mid-July Implementation
UK Government Establishes National Maternity Commissioner After Major Review of NHS Care Failures
Private Consortium Plans £35 Billion UK Nuclear Programme Targeting Small Modular Reactor Rollout
Andy Burnham Sets Out Ten-Year Reindustrialisation and Devolution Plan as Leadership Transition to UK Premiership Advances
Morocco and France Advance as 2026 FIFA World Cup Enters Quarterfinals.
Historic 2026 Tour de France Opens in Barcelona With Revamped Team Time Trial.
Global Mergers and Acquisitions Approach $4 Trillion Defying Geopolitical Tumult.
Negotiators Advance 20-Point Framework for Gaza Ceasefire and Demilitarization.
OECD Warns Middle East Conflict Will Depress Global Economic Growth.
Ukrainian Drones Strike Major Oil Terminal in St. Petersburg.
World Meteorological Organization Issues Urgent Alert Over Rapidly Intensifying El Niño.
United States Commemorates 250th Anniversary With Diplomatic Summits and Global Flotilla.
Iran Begins Days-Long Funeral for Supreme Leader Khamenei Amid Strait of Hormuz Standoff.
Technology giant reports surging carbon emissions driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure demands.
Artificial intelligence adoption accelerates workforce reductions across the technology and financial sectors.
Global technology and financial conglomerates collaborate to launch a new stablecoin standard.
United States regulators lift export restrictions on a major frontier artificial intelligence model.
Royal Society Exhibition Highlights Growing Focus on Public Trust in Science
Energy Costs and Supply Chain Risks Continue to Shape UK Business Strategy
Rapid Rise in Artificial Intelligence Adoption Reshapes UK Corporate Operations, ONS Says
UK Businesses Turn Defensive as Economic Outlook Weakens, Institute of Directors Data Shows
UK Government Faces Criticism Over Late Extension of Pub Hours for England Match
Inquest Continues Into Death of Noah Donohoe as Jury Deliberates Findings
Calls for Stronger Wildlife Attraction Safety Rules After Crocodile Enclosure Injury
City Fire Under Control After Major Blaze Sends Smoke Across Urban Area
Police Investigation Continues After Officer Killed During Road Closure Duties
Blackpool Hotel Fined £120,000 After Electric Shock Incident Involving Child
Whistleblowers Allege Delays in UK Special Educational Needs Support Services
Calls Grow for Improved Support for UK Armed Forces Personnel Facing Health Conditions
Rising UK Energy Price Cap Increase Prompts Wider Concerns Over Household Pressures
UK Businesses Remain Concerned Over Global Conflict Risks to Supply Chains, ONS Finds
Office for National Statistics Reports Rising Adoption of Artificial Intelligence Across UK Businesses
×