London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Mar 07, 2026

Tory leadership: TV debates can catapult or crush reputations

Tory leadership: TV debates can catapult or crush reputations

These daily doses in democracy are dizzying.

Because while, each time, the electorate in the leadership contest - Conservative MPs - stays the same, the ballot paper changes.

So as a Tory MP supporting a particular candidate, that support has a sell by date - the point at which the person you have backed gets knocked out.

Then it's on to Plan B.

And dozens of Conservative MPs are considering their Plan B, or C, with each passing round.

There isn't another round until Monday. And before then there are TV debates, with their capacity to catapult or crush the reputation of the participants.

They take place at 19:00 BST on Channel 4 on Friday, then at 19:00 on ITV on Sunday and at 20:00 on Sky News on Tuesday.

The frontrunners have everything to lose. The outsiders everything to gain. So who knows what might happen?

But, with the colossal caveat inserted that some zinger of a thing might happen that revolutionises everything, let's explore the state of play right now.

With two rounds now done, the top three have stayed the same each time: Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss.

The working assumption of the various campaigns is Mr Sunak is likely to snaffle one of the two golden tickets to the final run off decided by Conservative Party members. That is assuming the debates do not inflict a mortal political wound.

So what about the contest for the other spot?

As I wrote previously, Team Truss think the "natural ceiling" of her parliamentary support is higher than Penny Mordaunt's, despite being beaten by her twice.

Now we have some evidence there might be something in their claim.

The Attorney General for England and Wales, Suella Braverman, knocked out in the second round, has told me she will now support Liz Truss. It's thought most of her supporters will follow suit.

One who definitely will is the formidable campaigner Steve Baker. And now, writing in the Daily Telegraph, the former Brexit minister Lord Frost has signed up to Team Truss too.

As a peer, Lord Frost doesn't have a vote in the parliamentary stages of this race, but he does have a suggestion. He argues it is time to unite the right of the party around Liz Truss, and that Kemi Badenoch should give up.

Just because he's suggested this doesn't mean it'll happen. In fact Team Badenoch say it won't and she's in it to win it. One source suggested he should have waited to see the debates on telly and then he might have reached a different conclusion on who to back.

Former Brexit minister Lord Frost has signed up to Team Truss


But barring a transformational shift in support in the coming days, it seems unlikely Mrs Badenoch will make the final two and so it's reasonable to ponder where her supporters will move to if she is eliminated.

And while labels like "anti-woke" being attached by some to Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt being called "woke" by others are crude and simplistic, there is no doubt the two of them are some distance apart on issues of identity politics.

So how many supporters of Kemi Badenoch could perhaps switch to Penny Mordaunt? Maybe not a vast number.

And while there is still the question of where Team Tugendhat, another likely casualty of the early rounds next week, shift their loyalties to, you can begin to assemble an argument that points to Liz Truss being able to dislodge Penny Mordaunt from making the final two.

But, but, but: Penny Mordaunt has surprised many already and may do so yet again; her team have the effervescence and confidence that their candidate has a freshness, breadth and capacity to communicate none of her rivals have.

TV debates can be unpredictable. The scrutiny of all the candidates is about to crank up several notches; what might the Sunday newspapers be able to reveal?

And so round three on Monday seems a long, long way off.

Have a good weekend.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Starmer Defends UK Role in Iran Conflict After Renewed Criticism from President Trump
Blue Owl Reveals £36 Million Exposure After Collapse of UK Lender Serving Wealthy Clients
UK Asylum Reform Plan Triggers Fierce Debate Over Border Control and Humanitarian Impact
US Stealth Bombers Head to UK Base as Trump Issues Stark Warning to Iran
UK Deputy Prime Minister Says Legal Case Could Exist for British Strikes on Iranian Missile Sites
Investigators Link Mysterious Parcel Fires Across Europe to Russian Intelligence Operation
Debate Intensifies Over Britain’s Legal Justification for US Military Operations Launched From UK Bases
Britain Faces Heightened Energy Price Risks as Iran-Linked Tensions Threaten Global Oil and Gas Supplies
British Counter-Terror Police Arrest Four Suspected of Spying on Jewish Community for Iran
Axel Springer Agrees $770 Million Deal to Acquire Britain’s Daily Telegraph
Iceland Supermarket Drops Trademark Challenge Against Icelandic Government in Long-Running Naming Dispute
UK Defence Secretary Visits Cyprus Following Scrutiny of Britain’s Response to Drone Attacks
Questions Grow Over Britain’s Military Readiness as Response to Iran Conflict Draws Scrutiny
UK Offers Failed Asylum Seeker Families Up to Forty Thousand Pounds to Leave Voluntarily
Saharan Dust Could Bring ‘Blood Rain’ to Parts of the UK as Weather Systems Shift
UK Deploys Additional Typhoon Fighter Jets to Qatar and Helicopters to Cyprus Amid Rising Middle East Tensions
Experts Urge Britain to Accelerate Renewable Energy Push as Global Conflicts Drive Up Costs
British Public Shows Strong Reluctance to Join Wider War in Iran
First UK Evacuation Flight Departs Middle East After Lengthy Delay
United Kingdom Imposes New Visa Requirements on Travelers from St. Lucia and Nicaragua
Iran Conflict Strains U.S.–U.K. Alliance as Trump and Starmer Clash Over Military Strategy
UK Interest Rates Could Rise Above Four Percent Again if Energy Shock Continues, Think Tank Warns
Starmer Defends Britain’s Iran Strategy as Badenoch Urges Stronger Military Support
Labour MP Says She Saw No Sign Husband Broke Law After Arrest in China Espionage Investigation
UK Jobless Rate Overtakes Italy’s for First Time in Years as Labour Market Weakens
United Kingdom Suspends Student Visas for Four Countries in Unprecedented Immigration Move
Campaigners Warn UK Student Visa Ban Could Push Migrants Toward Dangerous Channel Crossings
First U.K. Charter Flight for Stranded Nationals Set to Depart Oman Amid Middle East Crisis
France and United Kingdom Deploy Warships to Eastern Mediterranean as Middle East Conflict Escalates
U.K. Arrests Three Men Including Lawmaker’s Partner in Suspected China Espionage Investigation
Trump Says UK–US ‘Special Relationship’ Is Diminished Amid Middle East Dispute
UK Economic Forecasts Face Fresh Strain from Middle East Conflict and Rising Energy Costs
UK Reaffirms Close US Ties After Trump’s Public Criticism
Reeves Stresses Stability and Fiscal Discipline in UK Budget Update as Growth Outlook Shifts
UK Deploys Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon to Cyprus After Drone Strike on RAF Base
Green Party Surges Past Labour in New UK Poll as Traditional Party Support Crumbles
Majority of Britons Oppose U.S. Use of UK Military Bases in Iran Conflict
UK Intensifies Evacuation Efforts from Oman, Working with Airlines to Boost Flight Capacity
Trump Condemns UK and Spain in Unusually Sharp Rift Over Iran Military Action
Trump Repeats UK Claims That Diverge from Verified Facts Amid Diplomatic Strain
UK Arrests Prominent Figures Linked to Epstein Network as Questions Mount Over US Action
Trump Says UK ‘Took Far Too Long’ to Approve Use of Airbases for Iran Strikes
Scope of Britain’s Role in the Expanding Middle East Conflict Comes Under Scrutiny
Trump Says He Is ‘Very Disappointed’ in Starmer Over Iran Comments
U.S. Embassy in Riyadh Struck by Drones Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Starmer Confronts Strategic Test After Drone Strike Near British Base in Cyprus
Rolls-Royce Chief Signals Openness to Germany Joining UK-Led Fighter Jet Programme
UK Stocks Slip as Escalating Iran Conflict Triggers Global Market Selloff
UK Overhauls Asylum System to Make Refugee Status Temporary
Starmer Warns of ‘Reckless’ Iranian Strikes Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
×