London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Feb 20, 2026

Tory leadership: TV debates can catapult or crush reputations

Tory leadership: TV debates can catapult or crush reputations

These daily doses in democracy are dizzying.

Because while, each time, the electorate in the leadership contest - Conservative MPs - stays the same, the ballot paper changes.

So as a Tory MP supporting a particular candidate, that support has a sell by date - the point at which the person you have backed gets knocked out.

Then it's on to Plan B.

And dozens of Conservative MPs are considering their Plan B, or C, with each passing round.

There isn't another round until Monday. And before then there are TV debates, with their capacity to catapult or crush the reputation of the participants.

They take place at 19:00 BST on Channel 4 on Friday, then at 19:00 on ITV on Sunday and at 20:00 on Sky News on Tuesday.

The frontrunners have everything to lose. The outsiders everything to gain. So who knows what might happen?

But, with the colossal caveat inserted that some zinger of a thing might happen that revolutionises everything, let's explore the state of play right now.

With two rounds now done, the top three have stayed the same each time: Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss.

The working assumption of the various campaigns is Mr Sunak is likely to snaffle one of the two golden tickets to the final run off decided by Conservative Party members. That is assuming the debates do not inflict a mortal political wound.

So what about the contest for the other spot?

As I wrote previously, Team Truss think the "natural ceiling" of her parliamentary support is higher than Penny Mordaunt's, despite being beaten by her twice.

Now we have some evidence there might be something in their claim.

The Attorney General for England and Wales, Suella Braverman, knocked out in the second round, has told me she will now support Liz Truss. It's thought most of her supporters will follow suit.

One who definitely will is the formidable campaigner Steve Baker. And now, writing in the Daily Telegraph, the former Brexit minister Lord Frost has signed up to Team Truss too.

As a peer, Lord Frost doesn't have a vote in the parliamentary stages of this race, but he does have a suggestion. He argues it is time to unite the right of the party around Liz Truss, and that Kemi Badenoch should give up.

Just because he's suggested this doesn't mean it'll happen. In fact Team Badenoch say it won't and she's in it to win it. One source suggested he should have waited to see the debates on telly and then he might have reached a different conclusion on who to back.

Former Brexit minister Lord Frost has signed up to Team Truss


But barring a transformational shift in support in the coming days, it seems unlikely Mrs Badenoch will make the final two and so it's reasonable to ponder where her supporters will move to if she is eliminated.

And while labels like "anti-woke" being attached by some to Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt being called "woke" by others are crude and simplistic, there is no doubt the two of them are some distance apart on issues of identity politics.

So how many supporters of Kemi Badenoch could perhaps switch to Penny Mordaunt? Maybe not a vast number.

And while there is still the question of where Team Tugendhat, another likely casualty of the early rounds next week, shift their loyalties to, you can begin to assemble an argument that points to Liz Truss being able to dislodge Penny Mordaunt from making the final two.

But, but, but: Penny Mordaunt has surprised many already and may do so yet again; her team have the effervescence and confidence that their candidate has a freshness, breadth and capacity to communicate none of her rivals have.

TV debates can be unpredictable. The scrutiny of all the candidates is about to crank up several notches; what might the Sunday newspapers be able to reveal?

And so round three on Monday seems a long, long way off.

Have a good weekend.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
King Charles III Opens London Fashion Week as Royal Family Faces Fresh Scrutiny
Trump’s Evolving Stance on UK Chagos Islands Deal Draws Renewed Scrutiny
House Democrat Says Former UK Ambassador Unable to Testify in Congressional Epstein Inquiry
No Record of Prince Andrew Arrest in UK as Claims Circulate Online
UK Has Not Granted US Approval to Launch Iran Strikes from RAF Bases, Government Confirms
AI Pricing Pressure Mounts as Chinese Models Undercut US Rivals and Margin Risks Grow
Global Counsel, Advisory Firm Co-Founded by Lord Mandelson, Enters Administration After Client Exodus
London High Court dispute over Ricardo Salinas’s $400mn Elektra share-backed bitcoin loan
UK Intensifies Efforts to Secure Saudi Investment in Next-Generation Fighter Jet Programme
Former Student Files Civil Claim Against UK Authorities After Rape Charges Against Peers Are Dropped
Archer Aviation Chooses Bristol for New UK Engineering Hub to Drive Electric Air Taxi Expansion
UK Sees Surge in Medical Device Testing as Government Pushes Global Competitiveness
UK Competition Watchdog Flags Concerns Over Proposed Getty Images–Shutterstock Merger
Trump Reasserts Opposition to UK Chagos Islands Proposal, Urges Stronger Strategic Alignment
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis advocates for a ban on minors using social media.
Liberal Senator Michaelia Cash Accuses Prime Minister of Lying to Australians
Meanwhile in Time Square, NYC One of the most famous landmarks
Jensen Huang just told the story of how Elon Musk became NVIDIA’s very first customer for their powerful AI supercomputer
A Lunar New Year event in Taiwan briefly came to a halt after a temple official standing beside President Lai Ching‑te suddenly vomited, splashing Lai’s clothing
Jillian Michaels reveals Bill Gates’ $55 million investment in mRNA vaccines turned into over $1 billion.
Ex-Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor's arrested
Former British Prince Andrew Arrested on Suspicion of Misconduct in Public Office
Four Chagos Islanders Establish Permanent Settlement on Atoll
Unitree Robotics founder Wang Xingxing showcases future robot deployment during Spring Festival Gala.
UK Inflation Slows Sharply in January, Strengthening Case for Bank of England Rate Cut
Hide the truth, fake the facts, pretend the opposite, Britain is as usual
France President Macron says Free Speech is Bull Sh!t
Viktor Orbán getting massive praise for keeping Hungary safe, rich and migrant-free!
UK Inflation Falls to Ten-Month Low, Markets Anticipate Interest Rate Cut
UK House Prices Climb 2.4% in December as Market Shows Signs of Stabilisation
BAE Systems Predicts Sustained Expansion as Defence Orders Reach Record High
Pro-Palestine Activists Cleared of Burglary Charges Over Break-In at UK Israeli Arms Facility
Former Reform UK Councillors Form New Local Group Amid Party Fragmentation
Reform UK Pledges to Retain Britain’s Budget Watchdog as It Seeks Broader Economic Credibility
Miliband Defends UK-California Clean Energy Pact After Sharp Criticism by Trump
University of Kentucky to Host 2026 Summer Camps Fair Connecting Families with Local Programmes
UK Police Forces Assess Claims Jeffrey Epstein Used Stansted Airport Flights in Trafficking Network
UK-Focused Equity ETF FLGB Climbs to Fresh 52-Week Peak on Strong Market Sentiment
Trump Warns UK’s Chagos Islands Agreement Is a “Big Mistake” Amid Strategic Security Debate
Trump Urges UK to Retain Sovereignty Over Diego Garcia Amid Strategic Concerns
Italian Police Arrest Man After Alleged Attempt to Abduct Toddler at Bergamo Supermarket, Child Hospitalised With Fractured Femur
Rupert Lowe wanted to deport rape gangs and the communities who protected them
Reform UK Appoints Former Conservative Minister Robert Jenrick as Finance Chief
UK Unemployment Rises to Highest in Nearly Five Years as Labour Market Weakens
Rupert Lowe Advocates for English-Only Use in the UK
US Successfully Transports Small Nuclear Reactor from California to Utah
South Korea's traditional sand wrestling sport ssireum faces declining interest at home
Japan outlawed Islam
Virginia Giuffre accuses Epstein of trafficking to powerful men for blackmail.
New Mexico lawmakers initiate investigation into Zorro Ranch linked to Jeffrey Epstein
×