London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025

Tory leadership: TV debates can catapult or crush reputations

Tory leadership: TV debates can catapult or crush reputations

These daily doses in democracy are dizzying.

Because while, each time, the electorate in the leadership contest - Conservative MPs - stays the same, the ballot paper changes.

So as a Tory MP supporting a particular candidate, that support has a sell by date - the point at which the person you have backed gets knocked out.

Then it's on to Plan B.

And dozens of Conservative MPs are considering their Plan B, or C, with each passing round.

There isn't another round until Monday. And before then there are TV debates, with their capacity to catapult or crush the reputation of the participants.

They take place at 19:00 BST on Channel 4 on Friday, then at 19:00 on ITV on Sunday and at 20:00 on Sky News on Tuesday.

The frontrunners have everything to lose. The outsiders everything to gain. So who knows what might happen?

But, with the colossal caveat inserted that some zinger of a thing might happen that revolutionises everything, let's explore the state of play right now.

With two rounds now done, the top three have stayed the same each time: Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss.

The working assumption of the various campaigns is Mr Sunak is likely to snaffle one of the two golden tickets to the final run off decided by Conservative Party members. That is assuming the debates do not inflict a mortal political wound.

So what about the contest for the other spot?

As I wrote previously, Team Truss think the "natural ceiling" of her parliamentary support is higher than Penny Mordaunt's, despite being beaten by her twice.

Now we have some evidence there might be something in their claim.

The Attorney General for England and Wales, Suella Braverman, knocked out in the second round, has told me she will now support Liz Truss. It's thought most of her supporters will follow suit.

One who definitely will is the formidable campaigner Steve Baker. And now, writing in the Daily Telegraph, the former Brexit minister Lord Frost has signed up to Team Truss too.

As a peer, Lord Frost doesn't have a vote in the parliamentary stages of this race, but he does have a suggestion. He argues it is time to unite the right of the party around Liz Truss, and that Kemi Badenoch should give up.

Just because he's suggested this doesn't mean it'll happen. In fact Team Badenoch say it won't and she's in it to win it. One source suggested he should have waited to see the debates on telly and then he might have reached a different conclusion on who to back.

Former Brexit minister Lord Frost has signed up to Team Truss


But barring a transformational shift in support in the coming days, it seems unlikely Mrs Badenoch will make the final two and so it's reasonable to ponder where her supporters will move to if she is eliminated.

And while labels like "anti-woke" being attached by some to Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt being called "woke" by others are crude and simplistic, there is no doubt the two of them are some distance apart on issues of identity politics.

So how many supporters of Kemi Badenoch could perhaps switch to Penny Mordaunt? Maybe not a vast number.

And while there is still the question of where Team Tugendhat, another likely casualty of the early rounds next week, shift their loyalties to, you can begin to assemble an argument that points to Liz Truss being able to dislodge Penny Mordaunt from making the final two.

But, but, but: Penny Mordaunt has surprised many already and may do so yet again; her team have the effervescence and confidence that their candidate has a freshness, breadth and capacity to communicate none of her rivals have.

TV debates can be unpredictable. The scrutiny of all the candidates is about to crank up several notches; what might the Sunday newspapers be able to reveal?

And so round three on Monday seems a long, long way off.

Have a good weekend.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
×