London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Feb 16, 2026

Tory leadership: TV debates can catapult or crush reputations

Tory leadership: TV debates can catapult or crush reputations

These daily doses in democracy are dizzying.

Because while, each time, the electorate in the leadership contest - Conservative MPs - stays the same, the ballot paper changes.

So as a Tory MP supporting a particular candidate, that support has a sell by date - the point at which the person you have backed gets knocked out.

Then it's on to Plan B.

And dozens of Conservative MPs are considering their Plan B, or C, with each passing round.

There isn't another round until Monday. And before then there are TV debates, with their capacity to catapult or crush the reputation of the participants.

They take place at 19:00 BST on Channel 4 on Friday, then at 19:00 on ITV on Sunday and at 20:00 on Sky News on Tuesday.

The frontrunners have everything to lose. The outsiders everything to gain. So who knows what might happen?

But, with the colossal caveat inserted that some zinger of a thing might happen that revolutionises everything, let's explore the state of play right now.

With two rounds now done, the top three have stayed the same each time: Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss.

The working assumption of the various campaigns is Mr Sunak is likely to snaffle one of the two golden tickets to the final run off decided by Conservative Party members. That is assuming the debates do not inflict a mortal political wound.

So what about the contest for the other spot?

As I wrote previously, Team Truss think the "natural ceiling" of her parliamentary support is higher than Penny Mordaunt's, despite being beaten by her twice.

Now we have some evidence there might be something in their claim.

The Attorney General for England and Wales, Suella Braverman, knocked out in the second round, has told me she will now support Liz Truss. It's thought most of her supporters will follow suit.

One who definitely will is the formidable campaigner Steve Baker. And now, writing in the Daily Telegraph, the former Brexit minister Lord Frost has signed up to Team Truss too.

As a peer, Lord Frost doesn't have a vote in the parliamentary stages of this race, but he does have a suggestion. He argues it is time to unite the right of the party around Liz Truss, and that Kemi Badenoch should give up.

Just because he's suggested this doesn't mean it'll happen. In fact Team Badenoch say it won't and she's in it to win it. One source suggested he should have waited to see the debates on telly and then he might have reached a different conclusion on who to back.

Former Brexit minister Lord Frost has signed up to Team Truss


But barring a transformational shift in support in the coming days, it seems unlikely Mrs Badenoch will make the final two and so it's reasonable to ponder where her supporters will move to if she is eliminated.

And while labels like "anti-woke" being attached by some to Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt being called "woke" by others are crude and simplistic, there is no doubt the two of them are some distance apart on issues of identity politics.

So how many supporters of Kemi Badenoch could perhaps switch to Penny Mordaunt? Maybe not a vast number.

And while there is still the question of where Team Tugendhat, another likely casualty of the early rounds next week, shift their loyalties to, you can begin to assemble an argument that points to Liz Truss being able to dislodge Penny Mordaunt from making the final two.

But, but, but: Penny Mordaunt has surprised many already and may do so yet again; her team have the effervescence and confidence that their candidate has a freshness, breadth and capacity to communicate none of her rivals have.

TV debates can be unpredictable. The scrutiny of all the candidates is about to crank up several notches; what might the Sunday newspapers be able to reveal?

And so round three on Monday seems a long, long way off.

Have a good weekend.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK’s Top Prosecutor Says ‘No One Is Above the Law’ as Police Review Claims Against Ex-Prince Andrew
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio Comment on European allies report blaming Russia for killing late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny using toxin from poison dart frogs
Eighty-Year-Old Lottery Winner Sentenced to 16.5 Years for Drug Trafficking
UK Quran Burner May Receive Asylum in the US Amid Legal Challenges
Rubio Calls for Sweeping U.N. Reform, Saying It Has Failed to End Wars in Gaza and Ukraine
10,000 Condoms Distributed at Winter Olympics 2026 Athlete Village Depleted Within 72 Hours
Poland's President Advocates for Evaluating Independent Nuclear Weapons Development
Prince William Meets Saudi Crown Prince as Epstein-Andrew Fallout Casts Shadow
Starmer Calls for Renewed ‘Hard Power’ Investment at European Security Summit
UK Police Establish National Taskforce to Handle Domestic Epstein-Linked Allegations
UK Court Rules Ban on Palestine Action Unlawful in Major Free Speech Test
UK Faces Prospect of Net Migration Turning Negative as Economic Impact Looms
Mayor of Serdobsk in Russia’s Penza Region Resigns After Housing Certificates Granted to Migrant Family Trigger Public Outcry
Pentagon Reviews Anthropic Partnership After Claude AI Reportedly Used in Operation Targeting Nicolás Maduro
President Donald Trump and Hip-Hop’s Political Realignment: Pardons, Public Endorsements, and the Struggle Over Cultural Influence
China’s EV Makers Face Mandatory Return to Physical Buttons and Door Handles in Driver-Distraction Safety Overhaul
Goldman Sachs and DP World Executive Resignations: Elite-Reputation Risk and Corporate Governance Fallout From the Epstein Disclosures
‘Amelia’: The UK Government’s Anti-Extremism Game Villain Who Became a Protest Symbol
Peter Mandelson Asked to Testify Before US Congress Over Jeffrey Epstein Links
Walmart's Earnings and UK Economic Data Highlight Upcoming Financial Trends
UK Green Party Considering Proposal to Legalize Heroin for an Inclusive Society
SpaceX's New Vision: Lunar City Takes Precedence Over Mars Colonization
OpenAI and DeepCent Superintelligence Race: Artificial General Intelligence and AI Agents as a National Security Arms Race
Document Suggests Prince Andrew Shared UK Briefing on Afghan Investment Opportunities with Jeffrey Epstein
We will protect them from the digital Wild West.’ Another country will ban social media for under-16s
McDonald's Shortens Breakfast Hours in Australia Due to Egg Shortage
Heineken announces cut of 6,000 jobs due to declining beer demand
Beijing Brands UK Hong Kong Visa Expansion ‘Despicable and Reprehensible’ After Jimmy Lai Sentencing
Tesco Chief Warns UK Is ‘Sleepwalking’ Toward a Joblessness Crisis
Trump’s ‘Act of Great Stupidity’ Comment on UK Chagos Deal Reverberates Through Diplomacy and Strategy
New U.S. filings say Jeffrey Epstein repaid Les Wexner one hundred million dollars after theft allegation
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick acknowledges 2012 visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island as lawmakers scrutinise past ties
Helsing and Stark Defence loitering-munition drones and Germany’s race to industrialise battlefield autonomy
UK orders deletion of Courtsdesk court-data archive, reigniting the fight over who controls public justice records
UK Police Review Fresh Claims Involving Prince Andrew as Senior Royals Respond to Epstein Files
Keir Starmer’s Premiership Faces Unprecedented Strain as Epstein Fallout Deepens
Starmer Vows to Stay in Office as UK Government Faces Turmoil After Epstein Fallout
China and UK Signal Tentative Reset with Commitment to Steadier, Professionally Managed Relations
UK Confirms Imminent Increase in ETA Fee to £20 as Entry Rules Tighten
UK Signals Possible Seizure of Russia-Linked ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker in Escalation of Sanctions Enforcement
Epstein Scandal Piles Unprecedented Pressure on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Leadership
UK’s ‘Most Romantic Village’ Celebrates Valentine’s Day and Explores the Festival’s Rich History
The Implications of Expanding Voting Rights to Non-EU Foreign Residents in France
Ghislaine Maxwell to Testify Before US Congress on February 9
Al.com Acquired by Crypto.com Founder for $70 Million
Apple iPhone Lockdown Mode blocks FBI data access in journalist device seizure
Belgium: Man Charged with Rape After Faking Payment to Sex Worker
KPMG Urges Auditor to Relay AI Cost Savings
US and Iran to Begin Nuclear Talks in Oman
Winklevoss-Led Gemini to Slash a Quarter of Jobs and Exit European and Australian Markets
×