London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025

Those who tell us what to do during the pandemic must earn our trust

Those who tell us what to do during the pandemic must earn our trust

Honesty, competence and a willingness to give us all the facts are essential for establishing who to trust, says statistician David Spiegelhalter
You’d be forgiven for not knowing what to believe during this pandemic. Some scientists who say their claims are based on evidence tell us that lockdown is too severe; others say that we relax at our peril. Some argue that masks are of little use, others that they save lives. So, who can you trust?

During a crisis like this one, trust clearly matters. It changes what people are willing to do: whether that be wearing a face covering or getting a vaccine when one becomes available. Since the first lockdown, people have continued to trust scientists, despite their disagreements or changes in official scientific advice.

But knowing who or what to believe is difficult. The philosopher Onora O’Neill tells us that rather than focusing on trust, we should focus on trustworthiness. She advises that trust happens when people show honesty, reliability and competence, presenting evidence in ways that make it accessible, intelligible, useful and easily assessed (meaning you can check the workings for yourself, if you so wish).

These principles form the basis for a useful guide for those trying to communicate evidence of all kinds during a pandemic, and for those of us trying to assess what to believe, whether from politicians, scientists or media pundits.

When evaluating whether something is trustworthy, it’s first worth asking whether you feel like someone’s trying to sell you something, or begging for your vote. When the government announces new rules, the evidence for them should be properly explained, and not treated as a means of persuading people how to think or act. The aim should be to inform rather than merely persuade (except perhaps in emergencies where fast action is imperative).

During a crisis like this one, scientists can feel as if they’re in a communications arms race. Those trying to defend the public good against potentially dangerous misinformation can end up denying uncertainty. We saw this early on during the pandemic, when the official line on face coverings was that they were ineffective – rather than admitting there wasn’t enough evidence to evaluate their effectiveness.

Too often, the message is shaped by communications professionals working to ensure the greatest number of people “get the message” rather than thinking about how to present the evidence so the greatest number of people can understand it, trust it and then decide for themselves.

Yet uncertainty is the engine of science, and a sign of knowledgable humility. John Krebs, the former chair of the Food Standards Agency who dealt with numerous crises such as BSE and foot-and-mouth disease, came up with a useful checklist for science communication in such crises: say what you know, then say what you don’t know; then, having acknowledged the uncertainty, say what research is being done, what people can do in the meantime, and, vitally, that advice will change as more is learned.

When judging whether a source is trustworthy, look to the evidence. If it only shows one side, ask yourself what’s missing and why, as a trustworthy source should present relevant evidence in the round.

That’s not the same as claiming every argument has two equal sides; inviting climate crisis deniers on to panel discussions is not the same thing as achieving “balance”. But if someone is only telling you about the potential benefits of a measure, or citing arguments that support their position, it’s worth asking whether there are any potential harms or evidence that points the other way.

Often, there are difficult tradeoffs involved with decisions – whether about lockdown or vaccines. In an ideal world, these would be clearly set out so we could make up our own minds. Of course, sometimes there’s just too much evidence to do it all justice – but a balanced summary of the pros and cons should be possible.

Those who want to be judged as trustworthy communicators, whether government, media outlets or scientific groups, should carefully consider how they present this evidence if they truly want to help us make up our minds about an issue.

For example, is the presentation of evidence pushing you to feel reassured, or anxious? A poster on the London Underground once proudly declared that “99% of young Londoners do not commit serious youth violence”. It’s a reassuring number – but if it were put the other way around, with “1% of young Londoners commit serious violence”, it would have had a completely different effect.

Equally, when politicians and scientists refer to numbers, such as daily numbers of Covid deaths, it should be clear whether these are based on reports of death, which are higher on Tuesdays, or the actual day of death, which means recent figures will inevitably be revised upwards. Ideally, evidence would have some sort of star rating.

For example, Sage reported “high confidence” that wearing face coverings outdoors has negligible impact on transmission, but “low confidence” in their estimate that closure of close-contact personal services such as hairdressing and beauty therapy could reduce R by up to 0.05. Sometimes decisions have to be made in the face of little evidence, but it should be clear what evidence there is, and how strong.

The ultimate test of evidence is being able to check it yourself. If people don’t tell you how to drill down into the evidence to find out more, or where to find the data, why not?

Part of what makes humans such an extraordinary species is our ability to learn from the experience and knowledge of others – and to pass on that social and cultural learning across time and space. We don’t all have to experience losing someone to Covid-19 to recognise the virus as a serious threat and nor do we each have to invent ways to protect ourselves against that threat. We can trust the experience, knowledge and hard work of others.

But in the world of competing sources we inhabit, we need to develop new ways to evaluate who really does have our best interests at heart, and the knowledge and experience they claim.

It’s far better for communicators to be trustworthy from the start – to be honest about the complexities and the uncertainties, open about the tradeoffs and reasoning behind policies – than it is to simplify for the sake of an easy message. After all, there’s no easy path to the truth. But it can help to spot when it’s at least being attempted.

• David Spiegelhalter is chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University. Alex Freeman is the executive director of the Winton Centre. Michael Blastland sits on the management board of the Winton Centre. Theresa Marteau is director of the Behaviour and Health Research Unit at Cambridge University. Sander L van der Linden is an associate professor of social psychology at the University of Cambridge.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Macron and his wife to provide 'scientific photographic evidence' that she is a real woman
US Tech Giants Pledge Billions to UK AI Infrastructure Following Starmer's Call
Saudi Arabia cracks down on music ‘lounges’ after conservative backlash
DeepMind and OpenAI Achieve Gold at ‘Coding Olympics’ in AI Milestone
SEC Allows Public Companies to Block Investors from Class-Action Lawsuits
Saudi Arabia Signs ‘Strategic Mutual Defence’ Pact with Pakistan, Marking First Arab State to Gain Indirect Access to Nuclear Strike Capabilities in the Region
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by Quarter Point and Signals More to Come
Effective and Impressive Generation Z Protest: Images from the Riots in Nepal
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Sam Altman sells the 'Wedding Estate' in Hawaii for 49 million dollars
Trump: Cancel quarterly company reports and settle for reporting once every six months
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
US Launches New Pilot Program to Accelerate eVTOL Air Taxi Deployment
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
Hong Kong Industry Group Calls for HK$20 Billion Support Fund to Ease Property Market Stress
Joe Biden’s Post-Presidency Speaking Fees Face Weak Demand amid Corporate Reluctance
Charlie Kirk's murder will break the left's hateful cancel tactics
Kash Patel erupts at ‘buffoon’ Sen. Adam Schiff over Russiagate: ‘You are the biggest fraud’
Homeland Security says Emmy speech ‘fanning the flames of hatred’ after Einbinder’s ‘F— ICE’ remark
Charlie Kirk’s Alleged Assassin Tyler Robinson Faces Death Penalty as Charges Formally Announced
Actor, director, environmentalist Robert Redford dies at 89
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
JD Vance Says There Is “No Unity” with Those Who Celebrate Charlie Kirk’s Killing, and he is right!
Trump sues the 'New York Times' for an astronomical sum of 15 billion dollars
Florida Hospital Welcomes Its Largest-Ever Baby: Annan, Nearly Fourteen Pounds at Birth
U.S. and Britain Poised to Finalize Over $10 Billion in High-Tech, Nuclear and Defense Deals During Trump State Visit
China Finds Nvidia Violated Antitrust Laws in Mellanox Deal, Deepens Trade Tensions with US
US Air Force Begins Modifications on Qatar-Donated Jet Amid Plans to Use It as Air Force One
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
Elon Musk Retakes Lead as World’s Richest After Brief Ellison Surge
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
London Daily Podcast: London Massive Pro Democracy Rally, Musk Support, UK Economic Data and Premier League Results Mark Eventful Weekend
This Week in AI: Meta’s Superintelligence Push, xAI’s Ten Billion-Dollar Raise, Genesis AI’s Robotics Ambitions, Microsoft Restructuring, Amazon’s Million-Robot Milestone, and Google’s AlphaGenome Update
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Musk calls for new UK government at huge pro-democracy rally in London, but Britons have been brainwashed to obey instead of fighting for their human rights
Elon Musk responds to post calling for the murder of Erika Kirk, widow of Charlie Kirk: 'Either we fight back or they will kill us'
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
USA: Office Depot Employees Refused to Print Poster in Memory of Charlie Kirk – and Were Fired
Proposed U.S. Bill Would Allow Civil Suits Against Judges Who Release Repeat Violent Offenders
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
French Debt Downgrade Piles Pressure on Macron’s New Prime Minister
US and UK Near Tech, Nuclear and Whisky Deals Ahead of Trump Trip
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
Anesthesiologist Left Operation Mid-Surgery to Have Sex with Nurse
×