London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Apr 10, 2026

There's a feel-bad factor coming, and this budget won't help

There's a feel-bad factor coming, and this budget won't help

It may have been a return to normality after the shocks of the last few years, but today's measures will not remedy the enormous problems facing Britain.

We'll get to the economics in a moment but let's reflect first of all on perhaps the most remarkable thing about this budget. Which is that this was, just about, a "normal" budget - the first "normal" budget in three years.

Think about it: first, there was COVID, during which the normal rules about economic policymaking dissolved away. Enormous giveaways (most obviously the furlough scheme) took place on the hoof, accompanied by few figures and no red book.

Then came Liz Truss's astounding mini-budget and Jeremy Hunt's equally surreal autumn statement which essentially undid everything that came before it.

Tot it all up and we haven't had anything resembling regular fiscal policy - which is to say six monthly sets of strategic tax and spending changes accompanied by robust, detailed economic analysis - for a long time. If today's event felt somewhat boring, it was in part because what came before it was so intense.

The big picture for the UK economy is a little bit better than last time around.

That might sound encouraging, until you recall that the outlook last time around was utterly grim: the worst two years for household disposable income in modern record; an enormous squeeze in the cost of living, augmented by a rise in certain taxes as the government sought to repair the mess of the mini-budget.


On the basis of today's budget, the UK should just about skirt clear of a technical recession (two successive quarters of contraction), but will do little more than flatline for most of this year.

Household disposable income will not contract by as much as expected last time around, but this year and next will still be the worst for families' finances since at least the 1950s. Things are looking better, but still bad.

Nor is there much sign that the measures contained in today's budget will move the dial that much. In one respect this is a little strange since many of the measures here might be considered textbook "pro-growth".

There's the increase in provision of childcare, which should help encourage more young parents back into the workforce.

There's the increase in the pensions lifetime allowance which should help encourage well-off older workers to get working again.


Then there's the biggest of all the measures - full expensing, whereby businesses can offset their investments against their tax bills. This is precisely the policy business groups have been calling for for years, claiming it would boost investment and hence drive forward productivity.

Yet tot up all these measures and, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, they raise economic growth by a measly 0.3 per cent at their peak, before dropping back eventually to zero.

Part of the reason is that some of these policies are time-limited - most notably full expensing which is technically only due to last for three years. The Treasury says it wants it to be permanent, only at the moment, it can't quite afford it.

That's not, it should be said, because of any concrete limitation on its ability to spend but because of its self-imposed fiscal rules, which are far less of a constraint than you might imagine.

Anyway, the upshot is that the OBR thinks the growth boost delivered by all this effort is quite small.

Then again, the OBR's forecasts are considerably more optimistic than the Bank of England, which thinks that far from rebounding rapidly, the UK is likely to see economic growth flatline for the coming years, barely making good any of the income foregone in recent years.

Put it all together and it's hard not to conclude that this was primarily a technical budget.

There are bits and pieces in there for households - the retention of the £2,500 energy price guarantee level, the childcare provisions and the pension tax-free allowance (primarily for the better-off) - but it's hard to see how any of this can remedy the enormous financial crunch most households are going to face in the coming months.


They will see inflation continuing to bite, they will feel the impact of higher interest rates and they will see ever greater chunks of their income going to the exchequer (as a result of the freeze in tax-free personal allowances announced last autumn).

It is the opposite of the "feel-good factor" - the feel-bad factor.

And the budget did nothing to remedy this. It did nothing to remedy the problems young people face in trying to get on the housing ladder. It did nothing to provide a coherent response to Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.

Then again, there are still two big fiscal events left before the likely date of the next election, late next year. If there's a splurge coming it's likely to happen then.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Foreign Secretary Highlights Impact of Intensified Strikes in Lebanon
UK Urges Inclusion of Lebanon in US-Iran Ceasefire Framework
UK Stocks Ease as Ceasefire Doubts in Middle East Weigh on Investor Confidence
UK Reassesses Cloud Strategy Amid Criticism Over Limited Support Measures
UK Calls for Full and Toll-Free Access Through Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Starmer Signals Strategic Shift for Britain Amid Escalating Iran-Linked Tensions
UK Issues Firm Warning to Russia Over Covert Underwater Military Activity
OpenAI Halts Stargate UK Project, Casting Uncertainty Over Britain’s AI Expansion Plans
Starmer Voices Frustration Over Global Pressures Driving UK Energy Costs Higher
UK Deploys Military Assets to Protect Undersea Cables From Suspected Russian Threat
Canada Aligns With US, UK and Australia as Europe Prepares Major Digital Border Overhaul
Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Appearance Sparks Fresh Speculation
Starmer Warns Sustained Effort Needed to Ensure US–Iran Ceasefire Holds
UK to Partner with Shipping Industry to Rebuild Confidence in Strait of Hormuz, Cooper Says
UK Interest Rate Expectations Ease Following US–Iran Ceasefire Agreement
Starmer Signals Major Effort Needed to Fully Reopen Strait of Hormuz During Gulf Visit
UK Fuel Prices Face Ongoing Volatility Amid Global Pressures and Domestic Factors
Kanye West’s Planned Italy Festival Appearance Draws Debate After UK Entry Ban
Smuggling Routes Shift Toward Belgium as Migrant Crossings to UK Evolve
Ceasefire Offers Potential Relief for UK Fuel and Food Prices Amid Ongoing Uncertainty
Iran Conflict Raises Questions Over UK’s Global Influence and Military Preparedness
Senator McConnell Visits Kentucky to Highlight Federal Investment in Local Projects
Kanye West Barred from Entering UK as Legal Grounds Come into Focus
UK Denies Visa to Kanye West After Sponsors Withdraw from Wireless Festival
Trump-Era Forest Service Restructuring Leads to Closure of UK Lab Focused on Kentucky Woodland Health
Foreign Students in the UK Describe Harsh Living Conditions and Financial Pressures
Reform UK Proposes Visa Restrictions on Nations Pursuing Reparations Claims
Public Reaction Divides Over UK Decision to Bar Kanye West
Calls Grow for UK to Review US Base Access Following Concerns Over Escalating Rhetoric
UK Indicates It Will Not Permit Use of Its Bases for Potential US Strikes on Iran’s Energy Infrastructure
UK Prime Minister Defends Decision to Bar Kanye West, Questions Festival Booking
UK Accelerates Efforts to Harmonise Medical Technology Rules with United States
Wireless Festival Cancelled After Kanye West Denied Entry to the United Kingdom
Australia’s most decorated living soldier was arrested at Sydney Airport and charged with five counts of war-crime murder for the killing of unarmed Afghan civilians
The CIA’s Secret Technology That Can Find You by Your Heartbeat Successfully Locates Downed Airman
Operation Europe: Trump Deploys Vance to Hungary to Save the EU
King Charles Faces Criticism From Some UK Christians Over Absence of Easter Message
Former UK Defence Secretary Raises Concerns Over Ability to Counter Iran Missile Threat
UK Signals Non-Involvement in Iran Conflict as Trump Reasserts Firm Deterrence Stance
US and UK Strengthen Medical Device Cooperation Following Tariff Removal
Trump Backs Steve Hilton for California Governor, Highlighting Reform Agenda
UK Seeks Closer Ties With Anthropic as AI Policy Divergence Emerges Across Atlantic
Experts Warn of Evolving Extremism After Teens Arrested in UK Ambulance Arson Case
UK Convenes Talks to Safeguard Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz After Conflict Escalation
Trump Highlights Strong Leadership in Critique of UK Stance on Iran
UK Authorities Review Kanye West’s Entry Status Following Festival Backlash
UK Considers Deploying Aircraft Carrier for US Independence Day Celebrations Amid Renewed Transatlantic Focus
United Kingdom Moves to Attract AI Firm Anthropic Amid Tensions with US Defense Officials
RAF Intercepts Iranian Drones in Middle East to Defend Allied Security Interests
Labour Signals Shift on Foie Gras and Fur Restrictions to Advance EU Trade Talks
×